40 Man Roster prior to Rule 5 Draft Deadline

[tvagle]

Here's my take on the 40-man roster, blueprint, rankings or whatever you want to call it

 

This leaves room for a Rule 5 pickup if there's a fit

 

Drop Order is who I'd drop if there were Free Agent Signings

 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

I would prefer Pressly over anyone in the rule 5. Rule 5 pick ups are a wild card for the future. They need to utilize all the 40 for 2018. They shouldn’t participate in the rule 5 this winter.

[beckmt]

I thought Melotokis had already been dropped from the 40 man.  I can see some add and subtract candidates here, but for me Bard and Burdi are still too high upside to lose.  Grossman many posters may want to see moved, but would not give him away for nothing.  Slegers may be dropped later, would not give up on Pressley.  

Most of the rest are marginal, so hope the Twins can bundle a few together to get a better prospect or prospects that do not need protection for a couple of years.  That could be tricky as Twins need as much depth as possible.

[caninatl04]

First, thank you for starting this discussion.

Second, what a difference a year makes.  Last year, the 59-win team was looking to improve through the Rule 5.  This year the (sort of) playoff team seeks to avoid deteriorating through it.

 

That said, I doubt there will be a player that is:

• exposed to the Rule 5 draft, but
• not good enough to be chosen by the 19-or-so teams ahead of the Twins in the claim order, yet
• is good enough to be placed on the Twins' 25 man roster for the season.

That said, I would not plan on a Rule 5 option dominating an existing roster holder like, say, Enns.

 

On a different note.  I tried asking this question this time last year and was less precise than I should have been.  Without discussing the merits of, say, Phil Hughes, what are the implications of leaving a veteran with a guaranteed contract off of the 40-man?

 

If he were claimed by another team (and, again, I am trying to ask about a generic situation) and he were claimed, who would pay what for the salary?

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

Without discussing the merits of, say, Phil Hughes, what are the implications of leaving a veteran with a guaranteed contract off of the 40-man?

 

If he were claimed by another team (and, again, I am trying to ask about a generic situation) and he were claimed, who would pay what for the salary?

 

It is a guaranteed contract.  The Twins would pay the salary.  100%.  By being on the 40-man roster and then moving to the DL, insurance pays partially.

[Rosterman]

That explains WHY you keep Hughes on the 40-man. Insurance reasons. You jsut have that one less spot to play with, and hope he qualifies for the 60-man come spring break.

 

It is my understanding that anyone you add to the 40-man CANNOT be easily dropped before spring training,unless involved in a trade. Once spring training happens, they can be put on waivers and exposed. I believe it is to STOP lots of musical chairs during the of-season. So if you have 7 guys to add, they pretty much are stuck with you into spring training.

 

So you need the Boshers or Grossmans to remove if you sign a free agent.

 

That''s a lot of starters on your list. Two coming off injury season, and six who would more-or-less start in the minors, unless a miracle happens. If the Twins don't see them making the major league club, maybe guys like Kohl Stewart won't be protected, although the Rule 5 is a great way to grab some teams high-draft-price minor league prospect for a song if you can find a roster spot for them.

 

Same with Lewin Diaz. You want to burn a couple of option years before he even gets a major league at bat? Of course, where do you have to advance him to keep him from the minor league portion of the draft.

 

Lewis Thorpe is an interesting question?!

 

Melotakis already went thru waivers, so WHY add him back on the 40-man. Unless someone does grab him, you have him for another season. If you lose him, you probably have others to advance past him.

 

There is not a lot of depth on the Twins immediate 40-man. Do they need a third catcher (right now, Rochester has zilch catchers). Which brings to mind the 12-15 minor league free agents the Twins will likely sign and how do you move them in-and-out of the roster without sending anyone you protect thru waivers. You can hope for 1-2 guys on the extended DL (Chargois again, probably Hughes). But the starting 25 is there and quite a lot of minor league prospects.

 

The Twins may have to dangle a prized prospect or two (Nick Gordon, for one, and possibly someone from the 40-man - Jorge, Romero, Gonsalves) and try to grab an already signed or team protected player fr a couple of seasons, as it seems logically that NO ONE commanding big bucks (Lynn, Cobb, Davish) will come Minnesota's way unless they blow them out of the market with a too long contract or overpriced 2-3 year ticket.

 

Boy, the 40-man looks good, but pretty darn week. Who is the 5th starter. Do you want Grossman and Vargas sharing DH duties, or is one gone by keeping an extra pitcher, and who is that from the whole mess of relief talent. Curtiss and Moya got the looks, but do need more seasoning. Reed, Burdi and Bard are questionable, still, with Reed being closest because he did pitch somewhat at AAA (as did Curtiss). 

 

And if you add a bat, a starter and a relief arm, who goes.

 

You already cut some of the slack. Well, all the slack. So cutting anyone you added can hurt more than it should.

 

 

[The Wise One]

Navaretto doesn't show up on prospect ratings, I do not think someone would claim him and keep him on a roster. He has not played that many games at AA

 

Even replacement level starting pitching  has value thus Slegers would likely be kept on the 40 man. With Hughes and May likely not ready to start the season the current 5-8 starters sort out from Gonsalves,  Littell Romero, Jorge and Slegers. 

[tvagle]

I'm in no way advocating to add during the Rule-5 draft, just setting it up so they could add if someone were to fall to their pick...if they have no open space they can't participate (the space is not needed by tomorrow's deadline)

 

This 40-man is to protect from losing any eligible players to other teams...if a qualified player is not on the 40-man by tomorrow evening they can be picked

 

Apologies for any graphic confusion...Players listed under Exposed/Released would NOT be protected from Rule 5 draft or would be out-righted off the 40-man

Aaron Slegers

Ryan Pressly

Buddy Boshers

Ryan Eades

Brian Navaretto

Zack Jones

 

 

Players under Drop Order are listed in the order that I would drop from the 40-man IF a Free Agent was signed

Melotakis

Burdi

Bard

Grossman

Enns

 

Melotakis has been previously on the 40-man...but he is still eligible to be a rule 5 draftee...hence he needs to be protected or possibly lost

 

Diaz won't burn any options until called up to the 25-man roster and then sent back down so again...this is just to protect him from being selected

 

AAA catcher is open for organizational guys rewarded with a move up or MiLB contact offer

 

Pressly saves $1.6M (MLBTR estimate) and approximately 6 game winning HR's given up in the late innings

 

Grossman is due $2.4M (MLBTR) in arbitration and I'd rather see the $4.0M for He and Pressly go to a bullpen arm that can make a difference

 

As for Navaretto...if Centeno can get a World Series ring with the Astros someone in need of a defensive catcher may take a chance...either way I wouldn't protect him just listed him as one of the choices needed to be made

 

I fully expect a Free Agent starting pitcher or two (from a foreign country) added to shore up the rotation with subsequent 40-man moves as suggested by the Drop Order list

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Melotakis has been previously on the 40-man...but he is still eligible to be a rule 5 draftee...hence he needs to be protected or possibly lost

Why would they protect Melo if he just passed through waivers?

 

Why would a team draft a guy via rule 5 that they could have put a waiver claim against just a couple weeks prior.

 

And why would Levine put Melo through waivers if he was worried about losing him either via waivers or rule 5?

[The Wise One]

 

Why would they protect Melo if he just passed through waivers?

Why would a team draft a guy via rule 5 that they could have put a waiver claim against just a couple weeks prior.

And why would Levine put Melo through waivers if he was worried about losing him either via waivers or rule 5?

They would only protect him if they thought that Melo was  better than Moya, Boshers and it would appear that there were no other lefthanders unprotected with an ERA of 4 or less in AAA, or about to be released.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would leave Diaz off altogether. He's a 1B in low A. He provides no defensive ability and his bat won't play yet. He's safe for another year.

[rdehring]

 

 

 

I'm in no way advocating to add during the Rule-5 draft, just setting it up so they could add if someone were to fall to their pick...if they have no open space they can't participate (the space is not needed by tomorrow's deadline)

 

Diaz won't burn any options until called up to the 25-man roster and then sent back down so again...this is just to protect him from being selected

 

 

If added to the 40-man roster, Diaz will burn an option next spring when assigned to the minors and additional options each year he is sent down.

 

 

[sthpstm]

I realize Slegers will likely never light the world on fire, but I think he has real value as a 2018 up and down arm that will allow the greater prospects to not be pushed too fast and that could pitch as a league average starter, which is fine for your 6th starter.

He could also start a game or two as the 5th starter until the Twins start a fuller schedule at the end of April to give May an extra month to get ready.

[tvagle]

 

 

If added to the 40-man roster, Diaz will burn an option next spring when assigned to the minors and additional options each year he is sent down.

 

That's the question with Diaz...leave him exposed and take the risk (slight as it may be) of losing him now or put him on the 40-man and watch how he progresses at the cost of a 40-man slot

 

He's eligible to be rule 5 drafted...and by all accounts he shows promise...all I'm saying

[tvagle]

 

I realize Slegers will likely never light the world on fire, but I think he has real value as a 2018 up and down arm that will allow the greater prospects to not be pushed too fast and that could pitch as a league average starter, which is fine for your 6th starter.

He could also start a game or two as the 5th starter until the Twins start a fuller schedule at the end of April to give May an extra month to get ready.

 

My proposed 40-man has one open slot and Slegers would be my last man dropped...he does have value and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he's on the 40-man at the deadline

 

So who would you remove to make room for him?

[Respy]

I appreciate the thread and discussion and generally agree with most.  I also think they should leave 1 spot open for the Rule 5 draft.  If they sign a big free agent between now and the Rule 5 draft, they could still drop someone, right?  I don't expect the Twins to sign anyone via Rule 5, but I think given some of our fringe players, they should keep the spot open, because with how many international talents are signed at young ages nowadays, the number of high-upside young-20's international players who have only reached A or AA should be continue to increase in the Rule 5 draft going forward.

 

Lastly, I would protect Pressly and not Melotakis.

 

Lastly lastly, despite our agreement, I would bet strongly that we are in for some surprises and big changes to the 40-man roster that gets submitted for the Twins today.  Now is the most appropriate time for Falvey and Levine to part ways with players they don't value as highly, to make room for players they do.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

My proposed 40-man has one open slot and Slegers would be my last man dropped...he does have value and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he's on the 40-man at the deadline

 

So who would you remove to make room for him?

First, I think it would be wise to not worry about Rule V. I wouldn't take anyone, so I'd start with that slot, but assuming they go out and get 2 RP and 1 or 2 SP, we need as many as 4 slots. They will likely need another C as well, though I suppose they can get a AAAA type and stash in Rochester, but I'm not sure that is quite that simple.

 

Rule V Slot

Diaz (doesn't need protection yet. I would roll the dice on exposing him)

Melotakis (don't believe he's on the 40, not sure I'd add him)

Enns (honestly, this is the competition to Slegers... which one does the team like better. Not sure I'd keep both)

Hughes (probably eat the insurance and just DFA if the roster crunch is that tight).

Burdi or Bard

 

[nicksaviking]

I keep Pressly, he was pretty good in the 2nd half and had been the teams best reliever the two years prior to last.

 

I wouldn't protect Diaz, hardly any teams carry a bench bat that can solely play 1B let alone one who only put up modest numbers in A ball.

 

I'd also guess that since the front office was already fine and dandy exposing Melotakis once, they'd have no problem doing it again. I'd guess the team keeps Boshers, though if they were to outright him that would be a great sign about their off season intentions. Hard to see the team only having Rogers and Moya as lefty BP arms.

[nicksaviking]

 

I appreciate the thread and discussion and generally agree with most.  I also think they should leave 1 spot open for the Rule 5 draft.  If they sign a big free agent between now and the Rule 5 draft, they could still drop someone, right?  

 

Seems to me when those free agent moves occur prior to the Rule 5 they never become official until after so the team can adjust accordingly.

[Rosterman]

If you sign a free agent starter, then Slegers (or maybe Mejia) is designated for assignment. If you sign a power bat, then you consider removing Vargas or Grossman, depending on what other positions the bat can play. If you sign a bullpen arm, Boshers would go (I would keep Enns at this point). You still have Adrianza as a possible "move" player on the roster, and of course Pressly.

 

I would gamble that no one will take Diaz or Stewart at this point. I'm torn on Thorpe. Still young. But so much promise there.

 

But the Twins need so much depth in the minors. No catchers at AAA right now. Counting the people sent down in spring training from the 40-man, you would be bringing up "just" prospects, unless you sign some veteran talent for the minors...and then, again, you have to have the possibility of working them onto the 40-man. At best, the Twins open the season with Chargois and Hughes on the 60-day disabled list. At worse, Sano might also be there, which raises the question of who plays third or is the designated hitter (comfortable with Vargas/Grossman and Escobar...or do the Twins REALLY need another bat or two.).

[Tom Froemming]

I'm having a tough time trying to find out the eligibility rules for the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft. Steve Lein actually had a question answered by Baseball America on this subject back in 2013, but it looks like the rules changed last year and there is no longer both a Triple-A and Double-A phase.

 

That article makes it sound like a player would need to be added to the Triple-A reserve roster, which includes 38 players, in order to be protected. Again, not sure if things changed. Basically where I'm going with this is it will also be interesting to see if the Twins lose anybody in the minor league portion of the draft.

[jorgenswest]

Ryan Pressly had the best curveball value, the highest velocity fastball and generated the highest rate of swings and misses. He had an xFIP- of 87. He remains until they sign several better relievers.

 

Aaron Slegers stays at least until they sign a starter.

 

The rule 5 add goes. It would be foolish for a contender to keep a guy on the 25 all year in hopes that they will be something in the future.

 

Lewis Diaz is too far away. They will exhaust his options before he is ready. He also doesn’t play a role where a rebuilding team can easily stash him as they might a catcher, middle infielder or reliever.

 

I also keep Boshers instead of Melotakis. Boshers is likely removed when the Twins sign a reliever.

[Elliot]

It seems that some of the minor league losses recently illustrate the problem with placing young players on the 40 man roster too early.  The rule 5 draft is less of a threat than having to outright someone off the 40 man.  Would Rosario have been selected if the team choosing him had to keep him on their 25 man roster all year as is the case in the rule 5?  As it is, by placing him on the 40 man and 25 man earlier in the year he had to be outrighted off the 40 man to clear a spot.  He might have been lost in the rule 5 if they did not protect him, but it seems much easier for a team to simply claim him and place him in their minor league system as the outright process allowed.  I don't think he was set to become a minor league free agent like Derek Rodriguez, so he was not free to leave on his own.

 

I may be missing something here, but this may be a cautionary tale regarding the desire to see young prospects brought up too early. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

That's the question with Diaz...leave him exposed and take the risk (slight as it may be) of losing him now or put him on the 40-man and watch how he progresses at the cost of a 40-man slot

 

He's eligible to be rule 5 drafted...and by all accounts he shows promise...all I'm saying

 

I would be shocked if the Twins left him unprotected. It'd be terrible to lose a Top 10 prospect for nothing. A team like San Diego should take him and let him get a bit of time and develop him. Guys like him aren't selected in the Rule 5 draft because guys like that get protected. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Here's my take on the 40-man roster, blueprint, rankings or whatever you want to call it

 

This leaves room for a Rule 5 pickup if there's a fit

 

Drop Order is who I'd drop if there were Free Agent Signings

 

 

Players added to the 40 man roster right now can't be dropped until spring training. That's why they have to keep a few guys like Boshers on the 40 man roster, and it's also why they may want to leave a couple of spots open. 

 

For example, they can't add Luke Bard tonight and then DFA him next week when they sign Darvish. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

They would only protect him if they thought that Melo was better than Moya, Boshers and it would appear that there were no other lefthanders unprotected with an ERA of 4 or less in AAA, or about to be released.

wouldnt Levine have just kept Melo on the 40 man?

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm having a tough time trying to find out the eligibility rules for the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft. Steve Lein actually had a question answered by Baseball America on this subject back in 2013, but it looks like the rules changed last year and there is no longer both a Triple-A and Double-A phase.

 

That article makes it sound like a player would need to be added to the Triple-A reserve roster, which includes 38 players, in order to be protected. Again, not sure if things changed. Basically where I'm going with this is it will also be interesting to see if the Twins lose anybody in the minor league portion of the draft.

 

They certainly could.But we don't see the AAA roster, so no way to know who could be lost. Presumably if a Luke Bard isn't protected on the MLB roster, he would certainly be on the AAA reserve roster... But basically guys who need to be protected a year from now in the MLB Rule 5 would have to b e protected in this year's AAA portion. So, certainly Jermaine Palacios and Nick Gordon will be protected on the AAA list.

[Doomtints]

Ryan was a bit too focused on the Rule 5 draft because of his luck with Santana. He viewed this as a legit way to build for the future, instead of as a supplementary way to pick up a player that another team may have given up on. It's always a crap shoot.

 

If the right player is out there, sure, don't hesitate. But there's no point in stashing a borderline player on the roster for a year and getting nothing out of it.

[tvagle]

 

I would be shocked if the Twins left him unprotected. It'd be terrible to lose a Top 10 prospect for nothing. A team like San Diego should take him and let him get a bit of time and develop him. Guys like him aren't selected in the Rule 5 draft because guys like that get protected. 

I was going to use the Padres as an example...when you're a couple years out of contention and the "new" rebuild is to tank I agree he'd be worth a flyer

[howieramone2]

 

It is a guaranteed contract.  The Twins would pay the salary.  100%.  By being on the 40-man roster and then moving to the DL, insurance pays partially.

Lloyds of London is a one time payment. When a player is done, and this is confirmed by medical professionals, then and only then do they stroke the pen.