Article: Trevor May Presents A Planning Paradox For Twins

[Twins33]

Neither May nor Hughes are on the Twins' 40-man roster as of today. Not listed at all – not on the DL or anything.

 

Maybe they don't have to be listed, coming back from injuries. I just found it odd, that's all.

I just looked and they were both listed on the 60 day still. They may have been updating it since Rosario is gone now. Goodrum still needs to be removed though.

[Jham]

Completely agree with your thoughts. Before they moved him out of the rotation in 2015, he had a 3.25 FIP. He had a .341 BABIP and a 69.5% LOB. Even assuming he couldn't have made any sort of adjustment to improve himself (pitch usage, sequencing, etc.), he still likely would have improved those numbers enough to drive his ERA into the low 4's if not lower thanks to improved defense and pitch framing.

See, you're depending on peripherals turning into results. That's my problem with depending on May as a starter. He had decent FIP but his xFIP wasn't as nice because he wasn't giving up HR despite lots of hard contact which could have driven the high BABIP. I'm fine with letting him compete. I'm saying I don't plan around him in a year we should contend.

[iastfan112]

Not that it ultimately matters but I know for a fact May would like to have another crack at starting.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It seems to me that May would slot in nicely as the long man for the first few months of the season to get a read on where his breaking stuff is in 2018.

 

Besides, need to keep his innings down anyway. If he's showing progress in July, consider moving him to the rotation.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm saying I don't plan around him in a year we should contend.

 

When you say contend ... Do you mean we should be a contender to get to the World Series or should we win the division or do you mean we should contend for a wild card spot.

 

It makes quite a bit of difference in how we should approach the season.  There were a lot of fans here who thought we should trade away young talent  a couple years for Tulo, Shields, LuCroy, etc. because we were ready to contend.

 

We are still not close to the level of Houston, Cleveland, Boston, and NY. 

For this team to contend beyond a 2nd wildcard they would basically need 80% or more of the following to occur .....

 

One of the top FA SPs

Santana can't decline at all.

Berrios has to step it up considerable

We need the best version of Gibson all year

Mejia needs to step up.

Need to add 2 very good BP arms

Hildy and Busenitz can't sophomore slump

Sano needs to stay healthy and improve his approach

Buxton needs to be far more consistent offensively

Polanco needs to be much closer to the great 6 weeks he had than the rest of the season.

Kepler needs take a step forward.

An aging Mauer needs to maintain his level of play

Dozier needs to remain in a Twins uniform.

Need a great year in terms of avoiding injuries

 

That's a lot of contingencies to say they should contend.  I seriously doubt the national media is going to say this team should contend.  We need to make room for May (Long relief is a good start) and eventually give Gonsalves, Romero, and a number of BP arms a chance to establish themselves so that this team can become a true contender.  Let's get that done this year instead of being a perpetual pretender.  It does not make sense to position a world Championship as the only thing that matters and then take an approach with very little chance of getting there.

 

Edited November 5, 2017 by Major Leauge Ready

[jorgenswest]

They have to wonder whether May can stay healthy as a reliever. If they go with the reliever role, they need to avoid pitching him on back to back days.

[laloesch]

Santana and Berrios are the only locks for next year. I do understand the age factor but I also think there is a coaching aspect to Santana that is being overlooked.

 

May should not in any way factor into the signing of a starter this offseason, nor should Mejia or Gibby. We absolutely need someone of the caliber of Santana/Berrios to make a top 3. Let the rest of the contenders play out and go from there. 

 

With a top 3 of Santana, Berrios and FA or trade then see where we are at come deadline time and pick up a guy like the Astros did this year if needed.

I think this is the hope. I'm hoping they pick up a GOOD FA this offseason to trifecta with Berrios and Santana. Part of the reasoning is that Santana is 35 this year. How many more seasons does he have before serious decline? two, three tops. They need to stat thinking long term. There will be room for May once he's fully recovered. I also hope that Thorpe gets a fall callup in 2018, but that might be far fetched.

[Jham]

 

When you say contend ... Do you mean we should be a contender to get to the World Series or should we win the division or do you mean we should contend for a wild card spot.

 

It makes quite a bit of difference in how we should approach the season.  There were a lot of fans here who thought we should trade away young talent  a couple years for Tulo, Shields, LuCroy, etc. because we were ready to contend.

 

We are still not close to the level of Houston, Cleveland, Boston, and NY. 

For this team to contend beyond a 2nd wildcard they would basically need 80% or more of the following to occur .....

 

One of the top FA SPs

Santana can't decline at all.

Berrios has to step it up considerable

We need the best version of Gibson all year

Mejia needs to step up.

Need to add 2 very good BP arms

Hildy and Busenitz can't sophomore slump

Sano needs to stay healthy and improve his approach

Buxton needs to be far more consistent offensively

Polanco needs to be much closer to the great 6 weeks he had than the rest of the season.

Kepler needs take a step forward.

An aging Mauer needs to maintain his level of play

Dozier needs to remain in a Twins uniform.

Need a great year in terms of avoiding injuries

 

That's a lot of contingencies to say they should contend.  I seriously doubt the national media is going to say this team should contend.  We need to make room for May (Long relief is a good start) and eventually give Gonsalves, Romero, and a number of BP arms a chance to establish themselves so that this team can become a true contender.  Let's get that done this year instead of being a perpetual pretender.  It does not make sense to position a world Championship as the only thing that matters and then take an approach with very little chance of getting there.

I get what you're saying.  I'm not even sure we disagree on anything except team expectations.  We're in agreement that May shouldn't be inked in to the rotation.  The plan should be to get him back in at some point if he's ready and we feel he can make a difference.  

Regarding the World Series, I'm not sure we are title contenders either.  But we can win the division.  That's a reasonable goal considering that this group will probably NEVER be good enough to be World Series favorites on par with last year's Indians, Astros, and Dodgers.  You have to get incrementally better.  The Astros weren't true contenders the last couple years, but they came close enough to see what more they had to do.  The Yankees this year got that experience.

A lot does have to go right for us to be World Series contenders this year.  But if you break it down over the next few years, and take some steps each year, it's not so intimidating.  We have to start putting the pieces together now including, most likely, a division title and/or playoff run in order to set us up for a WS run.  We only have so many years of this core remaining.  I'll say the same thing I said last year.  If this core in its prime is not able to contend, then what's the point of building around this core?  Trade Sano for a haul and point to 2021.  They showed they're good enough, imo.  Push now.  If it doesn't work, and the core flops, they should still have enough trade value to start again.

 

[sploorp]

I feel I can predict with near 100% certainty that if May is healthy and pitching like he did last spring, a spot will magically appear.  Until that happens, there is absolutely no reason to worry about it and more importantly, no reason to not go after another stud arm for the rotation (plus a few more for the bullpen).

[caninatl04]

Ignoring additions via FA, how many, and which starters will be invited to the Big Club spring training?

[jimmer]

 

Ignoring additions via FA, how many, and which starters will be invited to the Big Club spring training?

42

[Brock Beauchamp]

42

Thanks for all the fish.

[KirbyDome89]

Gibson and Mejia are "locks,"

 

Optimism swiftly fades...