Twins likely to keep Gibson

[gunnarthor]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/09/al-central-notes-gibson-santana-kipnis-abreu-merrifield.html

 

I thought Gibson was going to be gone by next year but he's come back strong and it sounds like he's probably saved himself a job. I think he's probably set to get around 4m or so next year.

[DaveW]

Yup, pretty much a no brainer. Kid has been awesome these last couple months.

 

Question is; do you try to lock him up now for a couple years?

 

I wouldn't be opposed to a 3 year, 21-24 mil deal. He has turned a corner, and if he does in 2018 what he has done in the second half of 2017 he will be very expensive on the open market.

[Vanimal46]

One year at a time is perfectly fine with me. I'd prefer not bringing him back and aiming higher in FA, but it is what it is. 

[drivlikejehu]

Gibson is arb eligible in 2019 also. There is zero case for doing anything other than year-to-year with him. And fortunately, the new front office wouldn't think of doing something so clearly erroneous, which could not be said of the prior regime.

[IndianaTwin]

A couple weeks ago, I said I thought a good approach for 2018 would be to get the best SP they can get on the free agent market, considering a second if the contract was right. That was at a time when Gibson looked like a non-tender and would have given a rotation of FA, Santana, Berrios, Mejia, and either the second FA or someone from the barrage of prospects, many of whom will be needed later in the year because of attrition. That also involves giving up no talent.

 

Based on how things have gone recently, I'd be fine with thinking of Gibson as that second free agent, perhaps on a two-year plus option year deal. (That would be the arb years guaranteed and first year of FA in the option year, right?) That is contingent on smarter people in the organization than me being able to have a feel of whether August/September Gibson has truly turned the corner vs. SSS.

 

And I use the word "feel" intentionally. I think one of the places where analytics breaks down is in not being able to determine when a player has turned the corner developmentally vs. "never gonna make it." That's the crux of a "DFA Eddie Rosario" conversation, for example, and may be where we are with Gibson. 

 

I'm also fine with waiting another year to have that conversation, recognizing that it might cost more in the long run.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not sure what to think. The rotation next year would be Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, and most likely May. Lots of nice depth in AAA, but that also means that I don't see them going out and getting FA help either.

[Vanimal46]

 

Gibson is arb eligible in 2019 also. There is zero case for doing anything other than year-to-year with him. And fortunately, the new front office wouldn't think of doing something so clearly erroneous, which could not be said of the prior regime.

 

And the new FO is not scared to eat $4 million in case if things don't go well. Which also could not be said of the prior regime. 

[USAFChief]

Barring collapse, I think it's a given Gibson is back next year.

[Thrylos]

I do not have a problem with this per_se.  

 

However, as far as starters go,  the Twins are: 21st in WAR, 20th in IP, 18th in ERA, 23rd in FIP, 18th in WIP, 24th in SIERA, 27th in K%, 23rd in K-BB%. this season

 

Santana

Berrios

May

Gibson

Mejia

 

 

under contract for 2018 and out of options, does not leave much room for improvement, and those numbers are not good for them to content in the postseason.   They  need at least one pitcher better than Berrios to do that, which means that something's got to give here...

[DaveW]

Gibson is arb eligible in 2019 also. There is zero case for doing anything other than year-to-year with him. And fortunately, the new front office wouldn't think of doing something so clearly erroneous, which could not be said of the prior regime.

Oh! For some reason I thought he was FA eligible after 18. Ignore my suggestion!

[DaveW]

I'm not sure what to think. The rotation next year would be Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, and most likely May. Lots of nice depth in AAA, but that also means that I don't see them going out and getting FA help either.

I think they trade some young position players for a front of the rotation type guys.

 

May, Mejia, Santana, May, gibson aren't front rotation guys, and Berrios has a ways to go to be a #2 imo,

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think they trade some young position players for a front of the rotation type guys.

May, Mejia, Santana, May, gibson aren't front rotation guys, and Berrios has a ways to go to be a #2 imo,

I'm not against this for the record, but I have to think one of those guys goes with.

[Respy]

I could go either way on this.  Despite his recent resurgence and our young arms coming up through the system, and May returning next year, I'm inclined to say we should end the Gibson era.  But realistically, if we could get him for $4M and only need to commit 1 year, that's a pretty darn decent price for a *reliable* back-of-the-rotation starter.  If he craps out next year, they'll need to eat the money.  If he does decent and the Twins are out of contention next mid-summer, they could flip him for a prospect.

[DocBauer]

New Guy, Santana, Berrios, Gibson and Mejia.

 

Mejia is going to make it, I believe, but still has to keep developing and it could be questioned if the his spot is guaranteed. And not sure if May will be 100% to begin the season.

[Tomj14]

_{The problem with letting him go is that if he goes someplace else and ends up being the exact pitcher we need;then we have to go out and pay for that with prospects or Money.}

_{The problem wit keeping him is I think the 40 man roster is going to be pretty full next year (I don't claim to be an expect on this at all).}

 

_{So I think the front office keeps him, because he will be cheap. And they look at trading some of the depth in the minors and maybe someone from the majors (Dozier, Polanco, OFer?) to get that top tier pitcher (I don't see that pitcher in free agency)}

 

_{If he fails at the beginning of the year like he did this year, he can be replaced by Gonzo, Sledgers, May, etc..}

 

_{The front office has to some how get a top pitcher, don't they?}

_{Maybe try the Mets for one of their pitchers not named Harvey, they seem to be lacking depth?}

 

[USAFChief]

Counting on May to be a 2018 starter isn't smart. You can't even count on health.

[Mike Sixel]

Can't wait for them to be around the 20-25th best staff again next year!

[gunnarthor]

I think Mejia still has options for next year. He was put on the 40 man for the 2016 season. He had an option used that year. I'm not sure if the Twins have used an option on him this year or if he's on injury rehab assignment. But, either way, he should have at least one more year of options, if needed.

 

If they do bring back Gibson, then he, Santana and Berrios would be locks for the rotation. After that I think it would be pretty open.

[Vanimal46]

I think Mejia still has options for next year. He was put on the 40 man for the 2016 season. He had an option used that year. I'm not sure if the Twins have used an option on him this year or if he's on injury rehab assignment. But, either way, he should have at least one more year of options, if needed.

 

If they do bring back Gibson, then he, Santana and Berrios would be locks for the rotation. After that I think it would be pretty open.

Mejia has an option year remaining for sure. Those 3 would be early season locks. Hughes will play itself out this winter most likely. Whether that's retirement or released.

 

Even with Gibson coming back, I think there's opportunity to sign one more top of the rotation type pitcher in FA or trade.

[bird]

 

I'm not sure what to think. The rotation next year would be Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, and most likely May. Lots of nice depth in AAA, but that also means that I don't see them going out and getting FA help either.

 

I hope they have the smarts to go procure the best FA starter that will agree to come here. Starting pitching, as an asset class, is more volatile in terms of performance, health, and value than any other position. But it's a fairly liquid asset too. The best case scenario would be the Gibson of September 2017 showing up in 2018 and being our 6th best option, making him desirable in trade at next year's deadline with guys like May, Gonsalves, and/or Romero knocking the door down.

 

Give me Santana, Berrios, FA, and probably Mejia. Then let Gibson and even Colon fight off a challenge. 

[Mike Sixel]

I can't see how they could sign both Gibson and Colon this off season. That would pretty much lock up the starters, and not be them adding a good FA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think Mejia still has options for next year. He was put on the 40 man for the 2016 season. He had an option used that year. I'm not sure if the Twins have used an option on him this year or if he's on injury rehab assignment. But, either way, he should have at least one more year of options, if needed.

Mejia did use an option year this year (he spent about a month on optional assignment in late April and May), but you are correct, he still has one remaining, which can be used in 2018.

[yarnivek1972]

B-R lists Gibson as being FA eligible in 2020.  But, I'm not sure if they mean after 2020, or going into 2020.  He had 3 years, 56 days service time coming into 2017.  So, even with his time in AAA he should finish 2017 with 4 years and like 25 days or so.  I think he was down for a total of less than 30.  That would put him on pace to be a FA after the 2019 season.

 

I absolutely would not extend him.  You want to get freaked out a little? Check out Gibson's numbers from 2016 and 2017.  They are practically identical in nearly every category with Gibson having 3 more starts scheduled this year.

 

This is who he is folks.  

 

To assume or expect or even hope otherwise would be a big mistake IMO.

 

I'm not ready to make a call regarding 2018 yet.  And this despite knowing that the list of in house options is neither long nor distinguished.

 

I guess if he is tendered for 2018 and it looks like the Twins have 6-7 better options in ST, you can always flip him then.  A healthy starting pitcher is ALWAYS tradeable.  Might not get much, but someone will definitely take him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

B-R lists Gibson as being FA eligible in 2020.  But, I'm not sure if they mean after 2020, or going into 2020.

Going into 2020 (after 2019), as you deduced, is correct.  Think of it as "first FA season".

[Platoon]

I still think Gibson is still Gibson. And will return to the inconsistent KG of yore. I can see the team keeping him, it's not like our cup runneth over in the SP department. I could live with keeping Gibson, as long as I am not really counting on him. If he surprises me and becomes the KG of Sept, woopee! But I would hate to put any money on that bet. I just hope we don't pass on a real pitcher because of this little streak he is having. One should take a pause from the euphoria that is rampant over Gibsons last couple months. He hasn't exactly faced murderers row. He beat Toronto, a decent hitting team. The rest? Meh.

[Danchat]

 

I can't see how they could sign both Gibson and Colon this off season. That would pretty much lock up the starters, and not be them adding a good FA.

Agreed, there's really no need to keep Colon around. Give Gibson $4M (which is weird to say because I was calling for his release a month ago), sign/trade for a good starting pitcher, and add an under-the-radar guy to compete with Mejia and others. I really don't like locking Gibson in starting again next season but starting pitching is tough to get and he's going to be rather cheap, so you gotta bring him back on board. 

 

We can upgrade Colon's spot in the rotation - he's been fine but he's overperforming his peripherals and he isn't going to last. He's been a great band-aid for the rotation but soon it'll be time to find a real solution to the problems in the rotation.

[gunnarthor]

 

I still think Gibson is still Gibson. And will return to the inconsistent KG of yore. I can see the team keeping him, it's not like our cup runneth over in the SP department. I could live with keeping Gibson, as long as I am not really counting on him. If he surprises me and becomes the KG of Sept, woopee! But I would hate to put any money on that bet. I just hope we don't pass on a real pitcher because of this little streak he is having. One should take a pause from the euphoria that is rampant over Gibsons last couple months. He hasn't exactly faced murderers row. He beat Toronto, a decent hitting team. The rest? Meh.

Sure, but that's also the reality of pitching in the majors right now.  Look at the Angels, Baltimore, Seattle. Gibson would be an upgrade for all of them.  There just aren't that many good pitchers in baseball right now. So, yeah, if Gibson manages another 30 start, 160ip, 90 ERA+ season, with the typical ups and downs those seasons provide, he's still probably worth the 4m.

[DocBauer]

WITH Gibson retained, AND adding the one quality FA/TRADE GUY, I think I'd stop there. Believe it or not, I don't see a need for an "under the radar guy". At some point, May should be back. And Gonsalvez, Slegers, Romero, Jorge and Beeker should all be at WAS for depth, competition and future promotion.

 

Use that extra money for a bat and a veteran reliever.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

B-R lists Gibson as being FA eligible in 2020. But, I'm not sure if they mean after 2020, or going into 2020. He had 3 years, 56 days service time coming into 2017. So, even with his time in AAA he should finish 2017 with 4 years and like 25 days or so. I think he was down for a total of less than 30. That would put him on pace to be a FA after the 2019 season.

 

I absolutely would not extend him. You want to get freaked out a little? Check out Gibson's numbers from 2016 and 2017. They are practically identical in nearly every category with Gibson having 3 more starts scheduled this year.

 

This is who he is folks.

 

To assume or expect or even hope otherwise would be a big mistake IMO.

 

I'm not ready to make a call regarding 2018 yet. And this despite knowing that the list of in house options is neither long nor distinguished.

 

I guess if he is tendered for 2018 and it looks like the Twins have 6-7 better options in ST, you can always flip him then. A healthy starting pitcher is ALWAYS tradeable. Might not get much, but someone will definitely take him.

im ok with tendering him once more. It wouldn't be all bad to find out if Gibby turned a corner in August, or if it was just leveling out to career norms.

 

I'm of the opinion it was most likely the latter. However if it was the former, maybe Buck can be a pitching coach too!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Sure, but that's also the reality of pitching in the majors right now. Look at the Angels, Baltimore, Seattle. Gibson would be an upgrade for all of them. There just aren't that many good pitchers in baseball right now. So, yeah, if Gibson manages another 30 start, 160ip, 90 ERA+ season, with the typical ups and downs those seasons provide, he's still probably worth the 4m.

hes a good value at arb levels, and I have no issue with the guy. I just want the Twins to aim higher.