Twins likely to keep Gibson

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yup, pretty much a no brainer. Kid has been awesome these last couple months.

 

Question is; do you try to lock him up now for a couple years?

 

I wouldn't be opposed to a 3 year, 21-24 mil deal. He has turned a corner, and if he does in 2018 what he has done in the second half of 2017 he will be very expensive on the open market.

Nooooooooo. We've seen this from Gibson before (in fact, I believe his peripherals in the middle of 2015 were actually better than his recent play). Take the one year deal and prepare to move on.

 

Lots of arms in the system that will appear in 2018 and 2019. One of them should work out well enough to replace Kyle when the need arises.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I can't see how they could sign both Gibson and Colon this off season. That would pretty much lock up the starters, and not be them adding a good FA.

This would infuriate me for that reason. Keep Gibson, go find a FA starter as good or better than Santana. The money is there.

[yarnivek1972]

This would infuriate me for that reason. Keep Gibson, go find a FA starter as good or better than Santana. The money is there.

Not sure such an individual is available. Regardless of money.

 

Erv has a 4.1 b-WAR. Only 10 pitchers in MLB are at 5 or higher (sorry, that's as far down the WAR list my phone goes). So, maybe there's another 5-10 between 4.1 and 5. Just guessing very few, if any, are FA.

[Doomtints]

Guys...

 

He has only been good for three weeks.

 

We gotta stop it with these small sample sizes.

 

He allowed 3 runs or more in 16 of his 26 starts. He pitched less than 6 innings in 15. It took him 25 starts to get his ERA under 5.00.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Gibson and I would not be offended in any way if Gibson is around next year, but it is far from concluded that he will be back.

[jimbo92107]

I'm sorry, but we've been together so long, and he's keeps sending me mixed signals. 

 

We were talking about baseball, right??

 

Gibson looks really good right now. Let's enjoy that while we can, then think about future contracts. This is one time I'm glad I'm not Twins front office. If he keeps pitching like this, then you definitely make him some kind of offer. Can you put, "...as long as you keep pitching like this" in a contract? Not sure what you'd get in trade...other teams have seen his up's and down's too. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not sure such an individual is available. Regardless of money.

 

Erv has a 4.1 b-WAR. Only 10 pitchers in MLB are at 5 or higher (sorry, that's as far down the WAR list my phone goes). So, maybe there's another 5-10 between 4.1 and 5. Just guessing very few, if any, are FA.

I'm speaking of Santana's general expected performance, not his 2017 performance (and good pitchers will be available). Also, fWAR doesn't have Santana nearly as high was B-Ref.

[Thrylos]

 

Not sure such an individual is available. Regardless of money.

Erv has a 4.1 b-WAR. Only 10 pitchers in MLB are at 5 or higher (sorry, that's as far down the WAR list my phone goes). So, maybe there's another 5-10 between 4.1 and 5. Just guessing very few, if any, are FA.

 

Yu Darvish (2.9 vs 2.5 fWAR - bWAR for pitchers is not that great btw) who does not qualify for a qualifying offer might disagree with your assessment.

 

WAR is a bad way of predicting future performance, esp. for pitchers over the hill, like Santana...  SIERA is better and Darvish is ranked 17th in the majors with 3.81.  Santana is 44th with 4.59

 

The guy I'd rather see them go get is Chris Archer (8th in the majors in SIERA and t-9 in fWAR 4.40).  Trades are good, because you kinda get rid of some of the minor leaguers you would have had to protect, as well as those who are blocked (like Nick Gordon) while they still have value as prospects.

 

I'd love to see what it takes to get Archer in the Twin Cities, starting with Gonsalves and Gordon and throwing in 2-3 more players, including Vargas who might have more value for Tampa than the Twins next season.

 

Unless you shoot for the top, you will not be on the top.  Got to do what McPhail did and get the best available pitcher (Morris 1991)

[terrydactyls]

 

Unless you shoot for the top, you will not be on the top.  Got to do what McPhail did and get the best available pitcher (Morris 1991)

How many 36-year old near Hall of Fame pitchers are going to be free agents this winter? And how many are from Minnesota and willing to come "home" for a final hurrah? Let's sign all of them.

[old nurse]

There might be Arrietta, Darvish and stretching a bit, Lance Lynn, and Estrada. out there as free agents that would be better than Berrios. Maybe add Cobb. Most of them are likely to be resigned by their clubs except for Cobb. The next hope would be a rebound from Tillman There just is not that much out there. The hope is the brain wizards in the front office can identify a talent that they can get. that would be on the upswing. That wouldn't make Gibson expendable, but in the back of the rotation is fine.

[Platoon]

Sure, but that's also the reality of pitching in the majors right now.  Look at the Angels, Baltimore, Seattle. Gibson would be an upgrade for all of them.  There just aren't that many good pitchers in baseball right now. So, yeah, if Gibson manages another 30 start, 160ip, 90 ERA+ season, with the typical ups and downs those seasons provide, he's still probably worth the 4m.

I don't dispute anything you said. Pitching is at a low ebb, and baseball is starting to resemble slow pitch! . Nor would I care if Gibson gets 4m of JP's hard inherited cash. But I do want the Twins to aim higher, and if they keep Gibson, it's in a fall back position. A poster above said one can always trade a starting pitcher. Truer words were never spoken. In essence, if I keep him, I don't count him!

[old nurse]

 

 

Yu Darvish (2.9 vs 2.5 fWAR - bWAR for pitchers is not that great btw) who does not qualify for a qualifying offer might disagree with your assessment.

 

WAR is a bad way of predicting future performance, esp. for pitchers over the hill, like Santana...  SIERA is better and Darvish is ranked 17th in the majors with 3.81.  Santana is 44th with 4.59

 

The guy I'd rather see them go get is Chris Archer (8th in the majors in SIERA and t-9 in fWAR 4.40).  Trades are good, because you kinda get rid of some of the minor leaguers you would have had to protect, as well as those who are blocked (like Nick Gordon) while they still have value as prospects.

 

I'd love to see what it takes to get Archer in the Twin Cities, starting with Gonsalves and Gordon and throwing in 2-3 more players, including Vargas who might have more value for Tampa than the Twins next season.

 

Unless you shoot for the top, you will not be on the top.  Got to do what McPhail did and get the best available pitcher (Morris 1991)

So really only two pitchers out there. Talk about a slim window for success

[yarnivek1972]

 

Yu Darvish (2.9 vs 2.5 fWAR - bWAR for pitchers is not that great btw) who does not qualify for a qualifying offer might disagree with your assessment.

 

WAR is a bad way of predicting future performance, esp. for pitchers over the hill, like Santana...  SIERA is better and Darvish is ranked 17th in the majors with 3.81.  Santana is 44th with 4.59

 

The guy I'd rather see them go get is Chris Archer (8th in the majors in SIERA and t-9 in fWAR 4.40).  Trades are good, because you kinda get rid of some of the minor leaguers you would have had to protect, as well as those who are blocked (like Nick Gordon) while they still have value as prospects.

 

I'd love to see what it takes to get Archer in the Twin Cities, starting with Gonsalves and Gordon and throwing in 2-3 more players, including Vargas who might have more value for Tampa than the Twins next season.

 

Unless you shoot for the top, you will not be on the top.  Got to do what McPhail did and get the best available pitcher (Morris 1991)

 

 

IMO, calling Morris the best pitcher available in 1991 is revisionist history to the extreme.  I don't know what other FA were avaialble but there is no way Morris was the best by any measure.  Morris was coming off by far the two worst seasons of his career to that point.  In 1989-90, Morris was one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB that qualified.  He had a a -.1 bWAR in 1989 and and a .7 bWAR in 1990.  He turned 36 six weeks into the 1991 season.  Conventional wisdom was that he was done.  

 

Dumpster diving is a long, honored tradition for the Twins FO.  Sometimes, it works.

[Thrylos]

 

How many 36-year old near Hall of Fame pitchers are going to be free agents this winter? And how many are from Minnesota and willing to come "home" for a final hurrah? Let's sign all of them.

FOUL

 

Not a final hurrah.  He went on with Toronto and was in a few more postseasons..

[Thrylos]

 

IMO, calling Morris the best pitcher available in 1991 is revisionist history to the extreme.  I don't know what other FA were avaialble but there is no way Morris was the best by any measure.  Morris was coming off by far the two worst seasons of his career to that point.  In 1989-90, Morris was one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB that qualified.  He had a a -.1 bWAR in 1989 and and a .7 bWAR in 1990.  He turned 36 six weeks into the 1991 season.  Conventional wisdom was that he was done.  

 

Dumpster diving is a long, honored tradition for the Twins FO.  Sometimes, it works.

 

You do realize that Morris's contract was the one of the highest ever in annual value ever at that point,  and had 2 player options, correct?  This is not dumpster diving by any means.

 

bWAR (as I previously indicated is garbage regarding pitchers.)  Morris had a 2.9 fWAR in 1990.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

You do realize that Morris's contract was the one of the highest ever in annual value ever at that point,  and had 2 player options, correct?  This is not dumpster diving by any means.

 

bWAR (as I previously indicated is garbage regarding pitchers.)  Morris had a 2.9 fWAR in 1990.

Yeah, Morris was a big deal when he signed and when he left us he was the highest paid pitcher in the league.

http://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/19/sports/baseball-blue-jays-make-morris-baseball-s-richest-pitcher.html?mcubz=3

[yarnivek1972]

 

You do realize that Morris's contract was the one of the highest ever in annual value ever at that point,  and had 2 player options, correct?  This is not dumpster diving by any means.

 

bWAR (as I previously indicated is garbage regarding pitchers.)  Morris had a 2.9 fWAR in 1990.

 

Yes, I'm well aware of the finer points of the contract.  

 

Of course, almost 1/4 of the salary he earned that year was in IP performance incentives.  His base salary was $ 3 mil.  That was still pretty high for that era, of course.  But that wasn't even the highest pitcher base salary for 1991.  I'm not sure what salary has to do with being the best.  It doesn't change Morris' stats from 1989 and 1990.  They were terrible.  I'm on my computer now.  My phone and fangraphs don't get along.  Don't ask me why.  They just don't.  Morris fWAR for 89-90 was 4.3, 52nd among qualifying pitchers.  So, the Twins vastly overpaid for Morris (just like they did with Nolasco, et al).  Like I said, in 1991 it just happened to work.

[bird]

 

I can't see how they could sign both Gibson and Colon this off season. That would pretty much lock up the starters, and not be them adding a good FA.

 

They could sign both, but probably won't. I would if they were okay with there being no "promises" of a spot and with being part of a large group competing for a final rotation spot. 

[bird]

 

This would infuriate me for that reason. Keep Gibson, go find a FA starter as good or better than Santana. The money is there.

 

 

Why not all three? Signing a player doesn't need to involve assurances. If Jorge, Romero, or some other young guy gives them a better chance in their mind over Gibson, Colon, or whomever, trade the veterans for a prospect and move on.

[sftwinsfan]

Gotta bring him back next year at this point.  If he reverts back to what he was, you're only out $4 million or so. There's always going to be injuries, hard to expect anything from May coming off TJ surgery.  If the young guys end up pushing him, it's a good problem to have.  

 

I just don't see them getting much in free agency.  There are maybe going to be 3-4 pitchers at most probably worth pursuing (outside of taking a flyer on a guy hoping for a bounce-back season).  How many of those guys want to play in Minnesota?  That probably cuts it at least in half.  Then you have almost every other team out there also after said pitchers.  Not impossible, but won't be an easy task.

 

Trade seems like the best option.  Maybe someone falls in love with either Polanco or Gordon.  Gordon probably lost any movement he had up the prospect rankings in the 1st half with his dismal 2nd half.  Would be hard to give up much position-player wise at the MLB level as outside of Gordon the organization is pretty bare at the upper levels.  

[drjim]

To me, bringing back Gibson and adding another FA starter seems pretty close to an obvious move. And said FA probably shouldn't be Colon.

 

And even though he's in the Core 7, I still think a second FA/trade can be added to push Mejia to AAA to start the season. Actual pitching depth! And provides necessary insurance if none of the minor leaguers are ready next year.

[Aaron Cross]

Absolutely not more than a one year deal. Despite his hot streak, he's gotta show more to deserve more than a one year contract. With the uncertainty surrounding May and whether some of these prospects are ready yet (Romero & Gonsalves) they almost have to bring him back. Honestly, I'd love to see them make an attempt to bring Colon back too. Still has something left, and great clubhouse guy.

[terrydactyls]

I really enjoy comments such as "sign the best FA or two". That makes it sound like the Mall of America and White Castle are on par with Hollywood or Broadway. It takes more than money to attract the best and the lure of being a Flatlander isn't appealing to most rich young men. I hope the Twins can entice a quality pitcher to sign but I'm not holding my breath. IMHO, trading for pitching may be the best option. But that also has its downside. You should trade from surplus, but where do the Twins have a surplus? Middle infielders three years from the majors? Pitchers a year or two from the majors? Some posters have mentioned that there isn't much milb non-pitching depth. It seems foolish to trade what little there is. So you're left with trading pitching for pitching. If the Twins' minor league pitchers are valuable enough that other teams are willing to trade for them, maybe they should just keep them and jettison those on the current team that they don't want.

[Blake]

 

Counting on May to be a 2018 starter isn't smart. You can't even count on health.

Beat me to it.

[drjim]

Counting on May to be a 2018 starter isn't smart. You can't even count on health.

He hasn't come close to making it through a season as a starter in the majors.

 

They have to go into the season counting on nothing from him (and obviously Hughes). Anything they get should be considered a bonus.

[Doomtints]

 

IMO, calling Morris the best pitcher available in 1991 is revisionist history to the extreme. 

 

I don't know that it was "revisionist history."  He had his believers in spite of the slow recovery to his injury in 1989. Yes, people said he was done, but it was by no means everybody saying it. He was a very popular player and I don't think anyone believed he would not have some good games in a Twins uniform. Morris wanted to prove he still "had it" and the Twins were apparently right to buy into that. 

[jorgenswest]

You do realize that Morris's contract was the one of the highest ever in annual value ever at that point,  and had 2 player options, correct?  This is not dumpster diving by any means.

 

bWAR (as I previously indicated is garbage regarding pitchers.)  Morris had a 2.9 fWAR in 1990.

Some context...

 

The contract guaranteed 3/2/2 if Morris accepted the player option. Higuera had sign a 4 year 13 million guaranteed contract early that winter. Other pitchers were getting guarantees of 10 million or more.

 

Baseball was coming out of collusion and salaries were escalating very quickly. The going rate for a top pitcher was going to pass 5 million. Golden signed a 3 year extension for 15.45 million guaranteed prior to the 1991 season. Three days after the Twins signed Morris, Clemens signed a 4 year extension worth a guaranteed 21.521 with an option for 5.5 million more.

 

Collusion a thing of the past, salaries were escalating and each new contract seemed remarkable to newspapers. The Twins guaranteed 7 million to Morris and 3 days later Clemens got a guarantee of three times as much.

 

The Morris signing was critical to the Twins, but he didn't get Clemens money or even Higuera money. He didn't earn top tier pitcher money until after 1991 when the Blue Jays gave him more than 5 million a year. Relative to Twins signings the commitment was more similar to that of Nolasco or Santana.