Joe Mauer 2019 odds?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

How is he defying logic?

fielding 3b well at 6'4" and 262 lbs defies logic

[Richie the Rally Goat]

He's only 24 but that is an issue. I think he'll be fine til 28 or so though.

 

And again, he can always DH. we don't have one of those.

he can, but as you said, much more valuable at 3rd.

 

DHs come and go, don't really need to invest heavily. Rooker looks like he's on the fast track, between him, Sano and Mauer you've got first locked down for the foreseeable future, you might have a half season to full season gap between Mauer and Rooker, but FA stop gaps are available at first.

 

I really want Sano to stay at 3rd, but what if the rigors wear him down quickly? In a couple years maybe?

 

There's not much in the minors for the hot corner. You don't really see 3b change hands a lot. Stop gap types, sure, but the Josh Donaldson deal from Oakland to a Toronto was unique and Oakland got fleeced. I doubt the Twins could replicate Toronto's move.

[jimmer]

 

fielding 3b well at 6'4" and 262 lbs defies logic

Ah, that's where I got confused.  The idea that he's fielding well. 

[yarnivek1972]

I see a lot of speculation about Mauer being a future platoon or part time player.

 

In these days where a 3 man bench is the norm, the days of platoon or part time players is over. At least in the AL. There simply is no room on the roster for a guy to only play first against RHP.

[old nurse]

 

Mauer is a league average hitter who plays pretty good defense at first base. If they find a league average hitter who plays pretty good defense at third base, they have a more valuable player, and players who fit the bill at less cost than Mauer should be available. David Freese signed for $3M last year. Sano would move to first. The Twins have 18 months to find this cheaper, better player.

Freeze at 3b and Sano at first<< Mauer and Sano

[Monkeypaws]

1B seems like it would be one of the easiest positions to to acquire by free-agency.

 

I do appreciate Mauer's defense, but 5 HR and 45 RBI, .377 slugging, all pretty sub-par.

 

If it's just to have him break some team records, I'd say no thanks.

[Rosterman]

Will Diaz or Rooker be ready in two years? Probably not. 

 

Will Park be a guy to keep? You could. Maybe.

 

The Twins still need a DH and Mauer is NOT the name for that role, which will eventually go to Sano.

 

Contract is an issue. You can only resign for so much, right?

 

Unless you groom Kepler to play 1B (he did some last year, didn't he, at Lookouts land?)

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Moving Kepler back to first is a colossal waste of his athleticism.

[darin617]

 

Mauer is a league average hitter who plays pretty good defense at first base. If they find a league average hitter who plays pretty good defense at third base, they have a more valuable player, and players who fit the bill at less cost than Mauer should be available. David Freese signed for $3M last year. Sano would move to first. The Twins have 18 months to find this cheaper, better player.

 

I have changed my tune on Sano. His defense has greatly improved at 3rd and not sure if the switch to 1st base would mess with his hitting.

 

 

[darin617]

 

At first, I thought he meant Valencia.

 

Before I realized it was 3rd base related I thought he was talking about Paul Sorrento.

[ThejacKmp]

 

he can, but as you said, much more valuable at 3rd.

DHs come and go, don't really need to invest heavily. Rooker looks like he's on the fast track, between him, Sano and Mauer you've got first locked down for the foreseeable future, you might have a half season to full season gap between Mauer and Rooker, but FA stop gaps are available at first.

I really want Sano to stay at 3rd, but what if the rigors wear him down quickly? In a couple years maybe?

There's not much in the minors for the hot corner. You don't really see 3b change hands a lot. Stop gap types, sure, but the Josh Donaldson deal from Oakland to a Toronto was unique and Oakland got fleeced. I doubt the Twins could replicate Toronto's move.

 

Rooker has been fine but he also hasn't set the world on fire. He doesn't seem like a 2018 guy, more of a mid-season 2019 guy. He's also profiling as a corner OF option and occasional 1B/DH. I think it'd be presumptuous to think he's the heir apparent at 1B. 

 

Sano also looks fine at 3B. Not a gold glove but eminently capable.

 

Still think there's nothing but room for Mauer as the strong side of a 1B platoon through 2020.

[yarnivek1972]

Rooker has been fine but he also hasn't set the world on fire. He doesn't seem like a 2018 guy, more of a mid-season 2019 guy. He's also profiling as a corner OF option and occasional 1B/DH. I think it'd be presumptuous to think he's the heir apparent at 1B.

 

Sano also looks fine at 3B. Not a gold glove but eminently capable.

 

Still think there's nothing but room for Mauer as the strong side of a 1B platoon through 2020.

Again, how is a platoon at first base a viable option with a three man bench? The bench is now one catcher, one infielder, one outfielder. That's it. This isn't 1991 when the Twins were carrying 10 pitchers and thus had a 6 man bench everyday. Back then you could have a platoon at one position. Maybe even two. And have a guy who's primary job is to pinch hit. Those days are over. Benches now are all about positional flexibility and if you can get positive offense from ONE of them, great.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Again, how is a platoon at first base a viable option with a three man bench? The bench is now one catcher, one infielder, one outfielder. That's it. This isn't 1991 when the Twins were carrying 10 pitchers and thus had a 6 man bench everyday. Back then you could have a platoon at one position. Maybe even two. And have a guy who's primary job is to pinch hit. Those days are over. Benches now are all about positional flexibility and if you can get positive offense from ONE of them, great.

 

You assume the Twins will carry 13 pitchers forever? They're much more likely to go down to 12 as their pitching improves over the next two years. The massive pen is necessary when you've got three guys who rarely go past 5.

 

And even if you do go 13, Rooker fits the bill. He's playing corner OF and 1B. You have a middle IF and a C. He's not Vargas.

 

There are plenty of platoons in baseball today.

[jimmer]

 

You assume the Twins will carry 13 pitchers forever? They're much more likely to go down to 12 as their pitching improves over the next two years. 

 

That's assuming their pitching improves  We've been saying that for awhile now.

[yarnivek1972]

That's assuming their pitching improves We've been saying that for awhile now.

Exactly. Sandy Koufax ain't walking into the dugout anytime in the foreseeable future folks, to paraphrase Rick Pitino.

 

And even a 12 man staff leaves few bench options. I'll also wager that most of the platoons that are out there don't involve a player who is top 10 in salary on the team. Even at $7 mil per year starting in 2019, Mauer would be in the upper half of the payroll ledger.

[BenB]

Would be nice if Garver could supply the other half of the platoon with Mauer. 

[beckmt]

 

Would be nice if Garver could supply the other half of the platoon with Mauer. 

Garver may well end up the platoon partner for Castro.  Twins at least seem to be moving to multi inning relievers, that would be a good start to get to a 12 man staff.

[beckmt]

Still feel if the price is right Mauer will be here in 2019.  It will depend on next year.

[DaveW]

2019 depends on what 2018 looks like.

 

But the Twins would be foolish not to try to keep him around, he is still a .370 OBP guy who should have 3.0-3.4 WAR this year.

 

Plenty of value IMO, esp considering Vargas is nothing special at all thus far, and no other real DH in the system. Sano should be at 3B for next couple years as well.

 

I'd guess, if he replicates 2017 next year , that he signs a 2 year contract (I can't see him wanting to go year to year) for about 5-6 mil a year.

 

Worth it IMO

[BenB]

 

Garver may well end up the platoon partner for Castro.  Twins at least seem to be moving to multi inning relievers, that would be a good start to get to a 12 man staff.

Good point, I must be a little slow today can't play both positions at the same time xD. Good point on receivers too.

 

[Seth Stohs]

I have little doubt that if Joe Mauer wants to keep playing in 2019, he will be with the Twins. And Twins fans should want that and applaud that.

 

Obviously they won't sign him to an extension. He's not going to make $23 million in 2019. He's likely get somewhere between like $2-6 million, and he'd likely be worth that easily on the field, much less the value he bring to the organization and with fans who aren't as analytical as we are and still lover the little things and memories and better appreciate the greatness that Mauer has been in the Twins organization and history. 

 

Obviously his role would be potentially diminished, depending on his performance.

[Reider]

I put the odds at >50% that Joe Mauer will want to continue with his MLB career after his current contract expires at the end of next season. However, I do not know what the odds are that Derek Falvey wants Mauer to continue his career in a Twins uniform. There's still another year to go before the Twins need to worry or make any serious decisions about that.

 

But what I do know is that Mauer has transitioned very well defensively into a solid first baseman, so that's a positive. His offensive numbers have gone down and are not typical of a first baseman, so he would definitely have to take a large pay cut in order to continue his career. However, Sano has played well at 3rd base and is still young, so I don't think the Twins need to rush moving him over to first base yet. Sano will be fine at 3rd base for a few more years if the Twins re-sign Mauer for a couple of more years.

[ThejacKmp]

 

1B seems like it would be one of the easiest positions to to acquire by free-agency.

 

I do appreciate Mauer's defense, but 5 HR and 45 RBI, .377 slugging, all pretty sub-par.

 

If it's just to have him break some team records, I'd say no thanks.

 

See I think the issue people have with Mauer is they have a preconceived notion of 1B as someone who has to hit for power. That's typically true but value is value in my book. Can you go get someone who hits 20 homers on the bargain 1B market? Probably. But that guy's going to hit .240 and get OBP at a .300 clip while striking out a lot. And the Twins have that guy already in spades. I think it's hard to replace Mauer's OBP unless you see a jump from a Kepler or a Polanco. 

 

More HR and SLG is not necessarily if the tradeoff is losing a skill the Twins are pretty lacking in to get something the Twins are already rich in.

[ThejacKmp]

 

However, I do not know what the odds are that Derek Falvey wants Mauer to continue his career in a Twins uniform. 

 

This. Falvey is a but unknown because he won't have any nostalgia for Mauer. That said, Pohldad's might and it might be something they push? They're hands off but they also like butts in seats and Mauer has a panache for many in Twins Territory. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Again, how is a platoon at first base a viable option with a three man bench? The bench is now one catcher, one infielder, one outfielder. That's it. This isn't 1991 when the Twins were carrying 10 pitchers and thus had a 6 man bench everyday. Back then you could have a platoon at one position. Maybe even two. And have a guy who's primary job is to pinch hit. Those days are over. Benches now are all about positional flexibility and if you can get positive offense from ONE of them, great.

 

Again, why can't Rooker be part of a 3 man bench? He can (hopefully) play corner OF and 1B. The Twins have three OF who can play CF and any middle infielder can cover 2B, SS and 3B. Your aforementioned backup C gives complete coverage of every position. A platoon is eminently doable. You know how I know? The Twins are basically doing it at 1B already - Mauer consistently sits against LH pitching, as he should.

 

You're also assuming that the Twins will only have a 3 man bench. They have this year due to starting pitching issues but it seems unlikely the Twins will be this weak there in two years. If they are, this is a pretty moo point.

[ThejacKmp]

 

2019 depends on what 2018 looks like.

But the Twins would be foolish not to try to keep him around, he is still a .370 OBP guy who should have 3.0-3.4 WAR this year.

Plenty of value IMO, esp considering Vargas is nothing special at all thus far, and no other real DH in the system. Sano should be at 3B for next couple years as well.

I'd guess, if he replicates 2017 next year , that he signs a 2 year contract (I can't see him wanting to go year to year) for about 5-6 mil a year.

Worth it IMO

 

And that includes 86 plate appearances where he's hit from the left side (where he hits like Danny Santana but still adds 100 points of OBP with that batting eye). If you can get that down to a mere handful late in games, all the better.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Contract is an issue. You can only resign for so much, right?

 

He's not getting $23 million but I don't think this is about money for Joe at this point. If he's got a defined role, he likes playing with the kids and his wife doesn't want him home 24/7 (hard to see what Joe will do after baseball, maybe coach instructional ball in FL?), there's no reason he wouldn't be open to 2 years, $12 million. That's a nice hometown discount but not chump change. It would be great to watch Twins fans have to deal with the fact that Mauer is underpaid. Some people have never forgiven him for that contract.

[Blackjack]

I think the biggest factor for Joe will be the progress of the Twins team, will they improve enough in 2018 to be legitimate World Series contenders in 2019?    If yes, and he's still healthy, I think he'd want to play another year.  A WS ring means a lot to most players.

[Mike Sixel]

 

See I think the issue people have with Mauer is they have a preconceived notion of 1B as someone who has to hit for power. That's typically true but value is value in my book. Can you go get someone who hits 20 homers on the bargain 1B market? Probably. But that guy's going to hit .240 and get OBP at a .300 clip while striking out a lot. And the Twins have that guy already in spades. I think it's hard to replace Mauer's OBP unless you see a jump from a Kepler or a Polanco. 

 

More HR and SLG is not necessarily if the tradeoff is losing a skill the Twins are pretty lacking in to get something the Twins are already rich in.

 

Fangraphs did a study. If you have a low OBP team, who hits for power, you are better off adding more of the same kind of player, than a high OBP player. 

 

Mauer might make 2 FWAR this year, but I doubt it. I have no interest in comparing him to SS, C, and pitchers ("league average hitter"), but only their other options and other 1B. It seems clear he can't play 140 games and be effective anymore, so if you have him, you need someone that can play 1B 40-60 times. With a tiny bench, not sure how that works really.

 

The real question is, do they have someone that can play 1B or 3B or RF (if you move Sano or Kepler) that is better than Mauer in 2019. Given that he is league median for 1B (and you'd assume he continues to age and his hitting and baserunning will get worse, that's what age does), I'd hope they can find someone that is league median or better that will be here for more than 1 year.

 

Corner OF FA+Kepler at 1B is probably > Kepler in RF and Mauer at 1B by 2019. If not, then Kepler hasn't progressed and isn't all that good a corner OF compared to other corner OF.

[Mike Sixel]

 

2019 depends on what 2018 looks like.

But the Twins would be foolish not to try to keep him around, he is still a .370 OBP guy who should have 3.0-3.4 WAR this year.

Plenty of value IMO, esp considering Vargas is nothing special at all thus far, and no other real DH in the system. Sano should be at 3B for next couple years as well.

I'd guess, if he replicates 2017 next year , that he signs a 2 year contract (I can't see him wanting to go year to year) for about 5-6 mil a year.

Worth it IMO

 

certainly not by fWAR. Not even close. Where do you get 3 WAR?