Crazy Talk: The Bullpen as a Strength in 2018/2019?

[bird]

The timing of this topic may be odd since there is a reasoned plea for Falvine to go outside the system for relief help at the moment. I'm not of the opinion that this is a bad idea, depending on if it's enough of a move and if the price is not outrageous. I'm also not at all sure, one way or another, that they can piece together a pen that would allow them to almost miraculously eke there way in to a wild card slot. Frankly, my view has remained the same all season, and that view is that it would have to be the young core of position players that got us there, and that they wouldn't quite be up to it this season because their inexperience would limit them. Even with a league-average pitching staff, I think they would end up short of that goal, because Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco, and Vargas are at least another year away from having the required consistency.

 

We've been clamoring for the FO to close the books on the old and call up the new since practically the first inning of the first game. Their options began to diminish, however, even before that. Perkins went down, May went down, Burdi went down, And then Reed, Chargois, Jay. So five bullpen arms that many expected to play a role in 2017, which then made Duffey an almost required BP arm, leading to a consensus conclusion that it's his best role in any regard.

 

Now, the good news, for 2018, is that there's a chance that we see maybe two or three of this group of Burdi, Chargois, Reed, Jay, and even Perkins. Add to that the possibility of bringing back Kintzler and having Rogers and Duffey in the mix. ANd now, let's look at a couple of guys on the margin that could be alright in Hildenberger, Boshers, and even a fixed Pressly. And it's not entirely outside of the realm of possibility that Tonkin, or even Wimmers, could be resurrected.

 

From there, it's a continued numbers game, but I will submit that none of the following names, listed in no particular order, should unquestionably be eliminated from possibly being good enough to be a bullpen arm in MLB in 2018 or very soon thereafter: Busenitz, Curtiss, Rosario, Vasquez, Turley, Melotakis, Hackimer, Clay, Muren, Robinson, Van Steensel, Bard, Baxendale, Z. Jones, Rucinski. I'm guessing I missed one or two that someone else may think could make it. And I'm not mentioning a single starter who could convert, and despite this, I think there are almost 30 names here. All of these guys are at High A or better.

 

By my take, if 75% of these guys aren't good enough to make a bullpen roster, we'd still have a bullpen staff from this list. I'll grant that you can't point to a single guy who makes you brim with confidence that he'll be a shutdown reliever in 2018, but we have to remember how fickle relief performance is for these guys, both up and down.

 

That's why I like having sheer numbers. And while only a few of these guys are impressive in a vacuum, I contend it's a very impressive group overall.

 

So, hypothetically, if Falvine opted to build his 2018/19 bullpen without going outside the system for a single player, and without converting a single starter, how bad do you think it would be? Which of these roughly 30 prospects, taking some liberty with the use of the term, do you think would stink or excel? Can you find a dozen you really like?

[gunnarthor]

I've been as high as anyone on the Reed/Burdi/Chargois/Melo/Jay/Meyer/May et al bullpen but it's been several years and it's still not there.  I'm not sure what to do. I wouldn't expect anything from Burdi next year since 1) he's recovering from TJ and 2) we tried to trade him for a rental. Jay's injury scares me. Curtiss should be up this  year. Chargois has disappointed.

 

I do agree that the Twins have enough arms to throw at a wall to see what sticks and may end up doing just that since FA is expensive and ownership is cheap. But I think we're probably in 'let them show us' territory now instead of 'wait and see'. If that makes sense.

[Danchat]

I think the Twins have to give out at least one sizable contract to a free agent to help the bullpen. Maybe you extend Kintzler and then you have:

 

Kintzler

FA Addition

Rogers

Hildenberger

 

And guys like Busenitz/Boshers/Curtiss/Melotakis/Rosario/Bard/Reed can fill out the back and hopefully the injured Jay/Chargois/May/Burdi might eventually contribute. I don't see it as a strength and they still might try to slip in some mediocre veterans a la Boyer and Breslow.

 

 

and even Perkins

He's not under contract next season and he's topping out at 90, I'll take a hard pass.

[Mike Sixel]

The issue for me, this year, is that doesn't seem to be the plan, but reluctantly. Breslow was on this roster at least a month too long, for example. And now instead of trying young starters, we have Colon in the rotation. 

 

I'd say these guys can be good:

Kintzler

Rodgers

Duffey (less use please)

Hildenberger

 

I'd say these guys have a chance:

Buesnitz

Turley (I'd convert him now, to get him ready for next year)

Curtiss

 

I'd say these guys have a lesser chance:

about 5-10 names

 

So, if they keep Kintzler, and sign one FA RP, I'm good with internal options. But then, I'd be trying internal options now more, by rotating them thru MN and AAA and seeing who sticks.

 

To answer your question, I think it can be a good, not great, bullpen internally, with one legit RP add. I wouldn't bet it is great, but I'd bet it is median or so.

[USAFChief]

Only my opinion, but this will result in another terrible bullpen.

This has been the plan for years now...

[Mike Sixel]

 

Only my opinion, but this will result in another terrible bullpen.
This has been the plan for years now...

 

Hard to argue, frankly. And, the FO has not exactly shown a love of the current prospects. Then again, they signed Breslow and Belisle as FAs and took a hard pass on any FA that cost actual money.

[JustinCB]

it's weird, I forget May is even on the team sometimes.  Makes me feel better about the outlook for next year.

[Vanimal46]

 

it's weird, I forget May is even on the team sometimes.  Makes me feel better about the outlook for next year.

 

Well, we may continue to forget about him until June/July 2018 when he's fully recovered from TJ. 

[gman]

If and when this team builds a really good bullpen (or pitching staff period) it will be from prospects. We aren't going to compete with the Yankees or Dodgers, etc. for the best free agents so we need to develop. Unfortunately due to injuries to most of our top relief prospects we haven't yet seen them this year. But just like the rest of the team, in order to build a really good bullpen we have to rely on the prospects

[Vanimal46]

My hope this season was to shuffle through as many bullpen names as possible to eliminate some from the 40 man. Now it appears they're entering 2018 with even more names and question marks than ever.

 

At least so far they've found out Hildenberger could be something. Rogers and Kintzler are good. Duffey could be okay.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Well, we may continue to forget about him until June/July 2018 when he's fully recovered from TJ.

 

It will be like a trade deadline acquisition, for free!

 

#PohladPocketProtector

[bird]

 

Only my opinion, but this will result in another terrible bullpen.
This has been the plan for years now...

 

 

I don't believe we've ever had anywhere near the numbers of "prospects" with at least some chance (say 25% ??) of being an acceptable piece of a league-average pen.  I threw 30 names on the list, and many of the worst of them, guys like Tonkin and Rucinski, have been good enough at one time to hold a slot down for a period. So I think that, if this WERE the "plan", and I wouldn't be in favor of that, it would not be the same plan. Because now, instead of being one of the better options, guys like Wimmers and Tonkin are taking a back seat to at least a half dozen better options for the last two slots in the pen.

 

I view the pen similarly to the rotation. We have to lock down one or two spots with studs. The rest of it is much more a game of interchangeability, if that's a word. I think we agree that they need to go outside the system to acquire a stud, although you may think they need three whereas I think they need one.

 

I think we're finally in a position where the numbers might allow us to plug in decent pitchers. Right now, we're struggling to move to "acceptable" pitchers from "not awful" and "terrible". From what I'm seeing, the evaluators are maybe seeing some prospects they like. For example, Sickles commented on Curtiss, Reed, and Busenitz as prospects he might grade out now as high as B or B-, grades he doesn't freely give out, and says they're certainly C+ guys. And that puts them in line with the Duensings and Swarzaks of the past and just a half grade under what he thought of Chargois, Burdi, and Jay before the injuries derailed them.

[Riverbrian]

I look at those guys in the minor leagues as extremely important depth. 

 

Injuries always happen and when they do... bring them up. 

 

If they perform when called up... now you have an extra reliever that can be traded. 

 

I think they should get free agent aggressive when it comes to the bullpen. Raise the bar and go for it and it's not my money so I don't care how much it costs. 

 

Go get Jake McGee, Joe Smith, Addison Reed, Bryan Shaw... Get all of them. 

 

Those guys can always be traded mid-season because all contenders are always looking for arms. 

 

I believe that you can build a pen with 7 guys you can depend on and that's what I want... plus talented guys on the farm. 

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I look at those guys in the minor leagues as extremely important depth. 

 

Injuries always happen and when they do... bring them up. 

 

If they perform when called up... now you have an extra reliever that can be traded. 

 

I think they should get free agent aggressive when it comes to the bullpen. Raise the bar and go for it and it's not my money so I don't care how much it costs. 

 

Go get Jake McGee, Joe Smith, Addison Reed, Bryan Shaw... Get all of them. 

 

Those guys can always be traded mid-season because all contenders are always looking for arms. 

 

I believe that you can build a pen with 7 guys you can depend on and that's what I want... plus talented guys on the farm. 

Good points, though as Twins at least 4 of those 7 will live on the DL. ..

And two will have substandard years.

Terry Ryan built good bullpens because he was a good scout. Not because he went out and got the flashiest guys available. BP arms are so up and down it's dizzying. Look at Pressly: 4 solid years followed by this 2017 version.

Very hard to figure.

[mikelink45]

I am not sure how to respond to this posting.  It is really good and what I have been hoping for the last two years, but I have been so disappointed and so impatient for the minor league relievers to show up that I am unable to get my enthusiasm going again.  I just hope you are right because I do not believe in trading for anything but the really elite BP pitchers and that is not going to happen. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Good points, though as Twins at least 4 of those 7 will live on the DL. ..

And two will have substandard years.

Terry Ryan built good bullpens because he was a good scout. Not because he went out and got the flashiest guys available. BP arms are so up and down it's dizzying. Look at Pressly: 4 solid years followed by this 2017 version.

Very hard to figure.

 

That's why you need strength in numbers 

[drjim]

I would hope they bring in at least 2, maybe 3 outside arms on mlb contracts this offseason. If any of the guys listed contribute it would be a bonus.

 

So I don't especially buy the premise. It was defensible leaving some spots open coming into this year, but they should plan on competing from day 1 next year and should not go in with as many question marks.

[bird]

 

I would hope they bring in at least 2, maybe 3 outside arms on mlb contracts this offseason. If any of the guys listed contribute it would be a bonus.

So I don't especially buy the premise. It was defensible leaving some spots open coming into this year, but they should plan on competing from day 1 next year and should not go in with as many question marks.

 

 

I agree completely that Falvine erred and needed to bring in at least one more reliever of a higher calibre (on paper) than Kintzler, in addition to Belisle. I was as critical of him on this topic as I was of the former FO on this topic on way too many occasions. But I do cut them some slack. They were not unreasonable in making a bet that one or more of Burdi, Reed, Chargois, and Jay would be healthy and play an important role. 

 

I don't expect them to bring in two or three relievers next spring. One high leverage guy, yes.

[USAFChief]

They were not unreasonable in making a bet that one or more of Burdi, Reed, Chargois, and Jay would be healthy and play an important role. 

 

I don't expect them to bring in two or three relievers next spring. One high leverage guy, yes.

I think it's always unreasonable to depend on players who have no demonstrated big league competence, no matter the position.

 

If they only add one proven reliever for next year, that will be another mistake, particularly since Kintzler might not be here. Only one of the four named above is even pitching right now, no? I doubt more than one even makes the team out of spring training, if that.

[Danchat]

I think it's always unreasonable to depend on players who have no demonstrated big league competence, no matter the position.

 

If they only add one proven reliever for next year, that will be another mistake, particularly since Kintzler might not be here. Only one of the four named above is even pitching right now, no? I doubt more than one even makes the team out of spring training, if that.

Yeah, if Kintzler is gone, then they need at least 2 major relievers signed.

[Rosterman]

Boy looking at Rochester right now the bullpen has the following ERAs: Baxendale 3.04, Curtiss 2.92 (and excellent in 2 other levels), Melotakis 1.80, Reed 1.84, Rucinski 1.45, Tonkin, 1.67, Wimmers 3.25. We are seeing some life from Slegers 11-4, 3.35 and Hurlbut 8-5 3.39. Gee is 3-1 2.00. Turley is hanging in there. Some of these names aren't much, but considering the Twins do have Busenitz and Hildenberger performing well and names like Chargois on the DL (not to mention Burdi, Jones, Jay).

 

Perkins is the Mauer of the pitching staff. Do you keep him or not.

 

Kintzler can have value as a closer, and is smart enough to be a solid setup man if his stuff diminishes a tad and you egt someone else in the mix.

 

Not so sure about Duffey. Rogers is holding his own. Sadly, thought Pressly could be an in-between closer.

 

Sometimes it is the odd guys that can fill out a bullpen well for a season or two in the least. Remember, you just need solid arms to get to the really good guys. Like people said, we were relying too much on the Belisle and Breslow arms, and they should be replaceable. Sadly they didn't bring a prospect back in return this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

They were not unreasonable in making a bet that one or more of Burdi, Reed, Chargois, and Jay would be healthy and play an important role.

That's pretty much the exact bet they already made in 2015 and 2016 and it failed each time.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Now, the good news, for 2018, is that there's a chance that we see maybe two or three of this group of Burdi, Chargois, Reed, Jay, and even Perkins. Add to that the possibility of bringing back Kintzler and having Rogers and Duffey in the mix. ANd now, let's look at a couple of guys on the margin that could be alright in Hildenberger, Boshers, and even a fixed Pressly. And it's not entirely outside of the realm of possibility that Tonkin, or even Wimmers, could be resurrected.

 

From there, it's a continued numbers game, but I will submit that none of the following names, listed in no particular order, should unquestionably be eliminated from possibly being good enough to be a bullpen arm in MLB in 2018 or very soon thereafter: Busenitz, Curtiss, Rosario, Vasquez, Turley, Melotakis, Hackimer, Clay, Muren, Robinson, Van Steensel, Bard, Baxendale, Z. Jones, Rucinski. I'm guessing I missed one or two that someone else may think could make it. And I'm not mentioning a single starter who could convert, and despite this, I think there are almost 30 names here. All of these guys are at High A or better.

 

Almost 30 names.  But about 5-6 unknowns.  Hoping that the rest will produce, is the equivalent of polishing the proverbial, let is sit overnight and pray that it will turn into gold.  

 

Perkins?  Really?  Resurrection will not help him.  He needs more.

 

No.  The Twins have done enough of this.  24 years plus of this.

 

Can Burdi, Jay, Melotakis, Chargois, Bard, Curtiss et. al. turn into dominant back of the bullpen material?  Of course they can.

 

Counting on Burdi, Jay, Melotakis, Chargois, Bard, Curtiss et. al. turning into dominant back of the bullpen material while competing, is at least irresponsible.

 

Enough of living on a prayer.  Go get 2-3 arms that you know they are dominant, and if any of the above become dominant, you got an awesome "problem" in your hands.

Enough turd polishing, lipsticking pigs and the rest.  Time to act like a real competitive baseball team.

[USAFChief]

"Remember, you just need solid arms to get to the really good guys."

 

I don't think that's at all true.  In fact, that's what they have THIS year.

 

Instead, Every reliever in the pen will pitch meaningful, high leverage innings, and that includes guys you bring up from the minors.  It's just the nature of baseball.  You are not going to be able to only use 2 or 3 guys in close games, and the other guys when it doesn't matter.

 

If you want a good bullpen, it CANNOT be  only a couple guys deep.  

 

 

[Guest]

Curtiss and Rucinski are where I'd put my money, among internal options, with Nick Anderson in AA a dark horse. Stewart could be a darker horse. May and Vasquez are possibilities for the second half. Slegers could get an opportunity as a long man.

 

The long-time, well-hyped names will all get a short leash, at best, if they are even healthy enough to compete. There's only so often that the names of Reed (often injured), Burdi (based on Atlanta, sounds like he's out until 2019, at best), Jay (health unknown), Chargois (health unknown), etc. can be heard until any glimmer of failure could lead to fewer second chances than others may receive.

 

I don't think Wimmers can be resurrected, because, unfortunately, he was never surrected in the first place.

 

Tonkin, despite good velocity, doesn't have any pitch that's above average. He's also not a long man, so he's in a tough place, because he can only be a short man without having short man skills.

 

Duffey? Woo boy. He's a two pitch pitcher, but he's lost his meal ticket pitch, his big curve, which was so successful his rookie year. Without it, he ain't much.

 

Hildenberger and Pressly: hope for improvement. Pressly's velocity still looks good. Hopefully, a pitching coach can help him with movement and strategy.

 

Kintzler: it's going to be a bidding war. He's going to try to take care of his family and will only get this one opportunity.

 

Boshers? In the mix, because he's a lefty, cheap, and rates as "Don't Sell." Will he run out of options?

 

Therefore, probably at least three outside pitchers will be needed for next year. Getting the right ones will be a big test for Flavor Lev. The goal would be to be like the Rays (oh, they do NOT miss their one-time AAA pitching coach), because they always seem to come up with either a young, cost-controlled closer or get one off the veteran scrap heap, and then supplement with other low-cost veterans whom they help rediscover past skills. Since Haley is gone, maybe they could find an Amanda Wurlitzer.

[Guest]

Go get 2-3 arms that you know they are dominant, and if any of the above become dominant, you got an awesome "problem" in your hands.

Enough turd polishing, lipsticking pigs and the rest. Time to act like a real competitive baseball team.

Sounds good, but way easier said than done. If a team had signed the three arms last offseason that were most known to be dominant, it would have been Chapman, Melancon and Jansen, at a combined cost in 2017 of more than $42M and the outcomes have been (1) good, but concerning; (2) just concerning; and (3) amazingly great. The costs will ramp up for several years, but the performance is likely to become worse than this year's mixed results. And that's with three of the greatest, none of whom were going to sign with one team. After these guys, there have been a lot of disappointments, all of whom were signed by teams with good scouts and general managers. In fact, arguably the best reliever signed last winter who is not among the top three is Holland, who was the opposite of a known-to-be dominant pitcher.

[USAFChief]

 

Sounds good, but way easier said than done. If a team had signed the three arms last offseason that were most known to be dominant, it would have been Chapman, Melancon and Jansen, at a combined cost in 2017 of more than $42M and the outcomes have been (1) good, but concerning; (2) just concerning; and (3) amazingly great. The costs will ramp up for several years, but the performance is likely to become worse than this year's mixed results. And that's with three of the greatest, none of whom were going to sign with one team. After these guys, there have been a lot of disappointments, all of whom were signed by teams with good scouts and general managers. In fact, arguably the best reliever signed last winter who is not among the top three is Holland, who was the opposite of a known-to-be dominant pitcher.

Holland was the opposite of a known-to-be dominant pitcher?

 

He was returning from surgery, but he wasn't the opposite of dominant prior to that.

 

They don't need to pay the closer premium, but that doesn't mean they can't find, and sign or trade for, good to dominant relievers.

[Riverbrian]

Here is a list of current teams in contention that need bullpen help at the trade deadline. 

 

Red Sox

Yankees(already acquired bullpen help)

Rays

Indians

Royals(already acquired bullpen help)

Twins

Astros

Mariners

Nationals(already acquired bullpen help)

Brewers

Cubs

Pirates

Dodgers

Rockies

D-Backs

 

Here is a list of 2016 contending teams that needed bullpen help at the 2016 trade deadline

 

Orioles

Red Sox

Blue Jays

Indians

Rangers

Astros

Nationals

Mets

Marlins

Cubs

Cardinals

Pirates

Giants

Dodgers

 

At some point... A smart GM will notice this consistent pattern and get serious about loading up on bullpen arms with talent BEFORE the season begins. 

 

 

 

[Rosterman]

Now remember, we expected the Twins to be sellers and that some arms from the minors would gat some time in the majors. So a few arms were grabbed from the scrap heap with the chance of flipping them mid-season.That didn't work. The arms in the minors, except fr Jake Reed, aren't on track to come to Minnesota. Even #20 prospect Melotakis has downsized for some reason or another.

 

I doubt the Twins expected a closer on the team to have 20+ saves at mid season, so Kintzler was a stopgap. He has value. Do you get value back (look what Neshek just got from the Rockies).

 

It's too bad all this happened RIGHT BEFORE the trading deadline. Yes, the Twins want to be buyers, but can they out buy the Royals or Indians, also in the hunt, or continue to do...well, we are seeing what they continue to do, shades of Terry Ryan.

T

hat they didn't manage to flip Escobar to the Red Sox is truly amazing. Wait, Nunez is an All-Star. Of course he is a better choice.

 

You never know about bullpen arms. (Look at Swarzak...wish we had him back now...but he became too expensive according to the process of major league ball for the Twins).

 

What you do have to look at is construction. Long men, fly ball guy, strikeout ace, a solid closer and maybe a closer in waiting. Proper setup men. People who have control, even though you can have just a thrower until the reports get distributed widely.

 

It's all about construction and how they match up with the rotation that only goes five innings and how you mix-it-up and try to avoid having 13 pitchers on the roster, let along 14.

 

A strong rotation (getting you into the 7th) will make you entire bullpen that much more valuable.

[Guest]

Holland was the opposite of a known-to-be dominant pitcher?

 

He was returning from surgery, but he wasn't the opposite of dominant prior to that.

 

They don't need to pay the closer premium, but that doesn't mean they can't find, and sign or trade for, good to dominant relievers.

Holland was once dominant, and a lot of teams looked at him, but there wasn't a bidding war and some people, in fact, thought the Rockies were fools for paying as much as they did. His success this year has surprised a lot of people.