Crazy Talk: The Bullpen as a Strength in 2018/2019?

[twinssouth]

My guess Reed and Curtiss may be the next two up with best potential. Both of these guys (Reed especially) has good movement on their fb's. Saw one game, Burdi's 1st yr in AA, getting hit hard when firing 97 to 99. Reed came in, throwing 93 to 95, lots of movement, setting the side down. In fairness to Burdi, I thought he was more effective when changing speeds.

 

I just can't believe all these power arms drafted the last few years by Deron Johnson and his staff, ended up with so many major medical issues. Every one of these guys have been on the DL at one time or another. Talk about snake bit. So much promise when drafted and now you hope, ( Melotakis, Chargois, Jay) can bounce back.

[DocBauer]

I really like this post and mostly agree. I truly think there is optimism to be had here. But just a few points:

 

1] We all know a RP season can be volatile. Sometimes, even for the best. They often come in in tough situations. A couple bad days can vastly inflate numbers and perception. A SP with a bad inning can still pitch a reasonably good game. Not so much for a RP.

 

2] Many quality RP, even some top ones began as failed starters or were late to find themselves. So age, in of itself, is not a big factor, IMO. There are many examples to consider but just look at some top Twins pen arms if the past; Nathan, Trombley, Guadardo and Perkins are just a few guys who found great success as failed starters, late to relieving, etc.

 

So while having numbers...30 or so names as it was put...sounds good, if they are poor arms, numbers don't mean anything. And while there are a few arms amongst the 30 listed, such as Tonkin or Wimmers, that I wouldn't bank much on, there are some live arms with real stuff and potential there. So numbers ARE a plus to work with here. Jay may, unfortunately, be done. (Forget the wasted draft choice rhetoric, nobody could foresee this type of injury). Burdi may be done, but could also be rounding in to form this same time next year. I still have real hope for Chargois unless the other shoe suddenly drops. Melotakis? I just don't know what to think or expect at this time, but I'm hoping.

 

You keep Kintzler, who has frankly proven himself at this point, and could be excellent as a 7-8th inning guy if someone even better does emerge. Rogers looks very good, but anyone can be overused. Same might be said for Duffey. Pressly has the arm, and has been good in the past. You don't ditch an arm like that. Hilgenberger looks good to nasty as a rookie. Busentiz shows promise. Reed and Curtiss both look like they could be good.

 

But you can't just gamble on depth and potential if you want to be great.

 

Sign one high quality RP. Could be a guy chomping at the bit to prove himself or a rebound candidate even. You sign a lefty veteran trying to re-invent himself (think Martinez or Swindell from the past), or a failed SP (think Guardado or Perkins). You now have, predictably:

 

Kintzler

FA

Duffey

Hilgenberger

Rogers

Lefty FA

 

...to begin with. That leaves one spot open, presumably, in this scenario. And you have Pressly, Busentiz, Reed, Curtiss, Boshers and other names previously listed for competition and depth. A top bullpen? Maybe. Just too early to say. But I really like the potential I see there.

[DocBauer]

My guess Reed and Curtiss may be the next two up with best potential. Both of these guys (Reed especially) has good movement on their fb's. Saw one game, Burdi's 1st yr in AA, getting hit hard when firing 97 to 99. Reed came in, throwing 93 to 95, lots of movement, setting the side down. In fairness to Burdi, I thought he was more effective when changing speeds.

I just can't believe all these power arms drafted the last few years by Deron Johnson and his staff, ended up with so many major medical issues. Every one of these guys have been on the DL at one time or another. Talk about snake bit. So much promise when drafted and now you hope, ( Melotakis, Chargois, Jay) can bounce back.

But really, sooner or later, kharma or the law of averages, doesn't one or two of the injured guys have to finally get healthy and get his shot? I'm just saying.

[DocBauer]

Side note, especially since I think the Twins should be promoting a AA arm, or two, or three to finish the season at AAA, I'd be moving Turley to the pen tomorrow with the idea of a possible September call up. I think there could be some real bullpen potential there.

[Raven]

I have to agree with a lot that has been presented for future bullpen potential.  Just quit mentioning Tonkin and Wimmers in the same sentence.  Makes me upchuck every time and I'm gonna be down to dry heaves soon.  Must be some auto-reflex thang. 

[HitInAPinch]

Seems to me that a rush to be the next 100 mph pitcher is hurting the Twins MiLBers.  And seeing those injuries is probably one of the reason's the new FO signed Breslow and Belisle.  Are they great?  No.  Are they healthy, have a pulse and can still pitch?  Yes.  The Twins need to figure out what, specifically, is causing all these injuries.  

 

I'm with Seth:  go outside the org after the McGee's, Smith's, Reed's and Shaw's of the world.  Get the Jay/Chargois/Burdi's of the world on arm building work and off the 'brain dead heaver's' mentality. Sign a couple from the 1st group for stability and a couple from the 2nd [which includes the Busenitz/Curtiss/Melotakis/Rosario/Bard/Reed of a similar world] for MLB status checks.

 

Duffey and Rogers need help.  Get'er done! 

[beckmt]

 

Holland was once dominant, and a lot of teams looked at him, but there wasn't a bidding war and some people, in fact, thought the Rockies were fools for paying as much as they did. His success this year has surprised a lot of people.

I was one of the few on the bandwagon of pay the man.  That is exactly the type of flyer the Twins should have taken, not on the low risk low reward relievers and surprise when they fail.

[beckmt]

Also on the list should be Bard and Jay.  Both could be here next year.  We shall see, but lets move some vets and start bringing up the kids.  We need to know before next year how they will shape up in a race, not in meaningless innings in September against a couple of clubs that are rebuilding, and other clubs that are gearing for the playoffs and resting their players. 

[Guest]

I was one of the few on the bandwagon of pay the man.  That is exactly the type of flyer the Twins should have taken, not on the low risk low reward relievers and surprise when they fail.

The Rockies had an advantage, because one of their staff knew Holland from K.C. Otherwise, he looked too risky to most teams and appeared to be the opposite of someone to be relied on. It shows how difficult it is to know how good a free agent reliever will be.

[Thrylos]

 

Sounds good, but way easier said than done. If a team had signed the three arms last offseason that were most known to be dominant, it would have been Chapman, Melancon and Jansen, at a combined cost in 2017 of more than $42M and the outcomes have been (1) good, but concerning; (2) just concerning; and (3) amazingly great. The costs will ramp up for several years, but the performance is likely to become worse than this year's mixed results. And that's with three of the greatest, none of whom were going to sign with one team.

 

I am not talking about expensive declining veteran free agents.

I am talking about young controllable pitchers that you get in trades of the likes of Santana, Dozier, and Kintzler and by adding your own prospects if necessary from positions of excess, like middle infield.

To throw some names: Chad Green, Felipe Rivero, Keone Kela, Michael Feliz, Chris Devenski

These types of players.  Not the expensive aging ones. For example, I would have loved to see the Twins going to the Pirates and trading Buxton for Starling Marte and Felipe Rivero, adding and or subtracting prospects if necessary.

[Thrylos]

 

Now remember, we expected the Twins to be sellers

 

Why the past tense 2 games under .500, with 6 games behind in the division in the L column and 4 games behind the WC?  When they cannot win a game or 2 from the Astros, the Red Sox and the Dodgers, which they will need to beat in series in the post-season.

 

I fully expect them to be sellers (and also improve the 2017 team with what they get.)   I will be vastly disappointed if Santana, Kintzler (the main goats from last night's game) and Dozier are with the Twins on August 1st.

[Guest]

I am not talking about expensive declining veteran free agents.

I am talking about young controllable pitchers that you get in trades of the likes of Santana, Dozier, and Kintzler and by adding your own prospects if necessary from positions of excess, like middle infield.

To throw some names: Chad Green, Felipe Rivero, Keone Kela, Michael Feliz, Chris Devenski

These types of players.  Not the expensive aging ones. For example, I would have loved to see the Twins going to the Pirates and trading Buxton for Starling Marte and Felipe Rivero, adding and or subtracting prospects if necessary.

Looks like that's what they're trying to do. Just note that I was responding to comments saying they should get known quantities. The pitchers you named were not known quantities when they were given their chances.

 

It would be great to get someone like Devenski for Santana, but easier said than done.

[diehardtwinsfan]

My 2 cents, I'd definitely be bringing up the likes of Curtiss and Bard etc. as relievers yet this year to see how they do in a limited sample... even if they do well, they should go out and get at least 1 shut down reliever in FA this offseason.

[Vanimal46]

 

My 2 cents, I'd definitely be bringing up the likes of Curtiss and Bard etc. as relievers yet this year to see how they do in a limited sample... even if they do well, they should go out and get at least 1 shut down reliever in FA this offseason.

 

Concur. This organization won't be able to move forward if they continue to rely on 20 names that may or may not be anything. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Concur. This organization won't be able to move forward if they continue to rely on 20 names that may or may not be anything.

I think the 20-30 names thing is overblown -- Baxendale? But there are definitely a couple that should warrant 40-man protection this winter, namely Curtiss and I suppose Reed.

[drjim]

I think the 20-30 names thing is overblown -- Baxendale? But there are definitely a couple that should warrant 40-man protection this winter, namely Curtiss and I suppose Reed.

Overblown is being kind.

[Doomtints]

It will still take major moves to improve both the bullpen and the starting pitching to an acceptable level, but the task is by no means insurmountable.