Interesting stat on Buxton

[drock2190]

Buxton leads the league in infield fly ball percentage (26.7%). Not very good thing to lead in especially with his speed. Looking back on his minor league stats, he always had a high number of infield fly balls as well. Maybe this was a warning sign of things to come.

 

I also looked up Sano's infield fly ball rate and its very low (4.8%).But in the minors he had a high infield fly ball rate. So out of curiosity, I looked up Mike Trout's and his was in single digits but in the minors it was high like Buxton's. Is this a correctable thing or is the data off in the minors?

[Doomtints]

This is something the Twins can coach to.

[amjgt]

I think we just need to get him some 1" lifts, then all that contact on the bottom of the ball will be squared up. 

 

You're welcome, Twins.

[Willihammer]

Just a note about IFFB%, at least on Fangraphs, its a ratio of infield fly balls to all fly balls. Since Buxton only hits about 38% of balls in the air, he's only hitting the ball in the infield .267*38% of the time.

[Parker Hageman]

Buxton leads the league in infield fly ball percentage (26.7%). Not very good thing to lead in especially with his speed. Looking back on his minor league stats, he always had a high number of infield fly balls as well. Maybe this was a warning sign of things to come.

 

 

 

The infield fly rate spiked at the beginning of the year when his mechanics were a mess. Since he moved to the to toe tap again, he's reduced the amount of infield flies.

 

In 2012, Jeff Zimmerman did a great study on the subject on what causes infield fly balls. He found that pitches up-and-in and the two zones around them, tend to incite the most infield flies. Buxton has had plenty of issues hitting pitches on the inner half this year.

 

 

Another element of it is simply not having consistent mechanics. We've seen Buxton's head moving, legs moving, arms moving, bat dipping, etc, etc, in his swing over the years. There's just so much going on, especially when he started to try to fix things at the beginning of the year. 

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/854526177956044800

 

 

[Parker Hageman]

 

Just a note about IFFB%, at least on Fangraphs, its a ratio of infield fly balls to all fly balls. Since Buxton only hits about 38% of balls in the air, he's only hitting the ball in the infield .267*38% of the time.

 

Statcast's database has him with 18 balls in play that have not left the infield. Statcast also has an issue of losing softly hit infield fly balls on their radar, so it may be more than that. 

[akmanak]

Coaches cant fix hardly anything when it comes to batting and that plain as day. I wont argue anymore with this guy in how the Twins need to trade him but will bring it up in 2 years when he is still batting around .200

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Coaches cant fix hardly anything when it comes to batting and that plain as day. I wont argue anymore with this guy in how the Twins need to trade him but will bring it up in 2 years when he is still batting around .200

Sure, but what have you noticed about his infield fly rate?

[raindog]

 

Coaches cant fix hardly anything when it comes to batting and that plain as day. I wont argue anymore with this guy in how the Twins need to trade him but will bring it up in 2 years when he is still batting around .200

Do you realize how much his defense helps the team? He will not still be batting .200 in two years. 

[yarnivek1972]

Do you realize how much his defense helps the team? He will not still be batting .200 in two years.

I concur. He won't be given that opportunity. If he doesn't hit better next year, the Twins will move on.

[Linus]

I concur. He won't be given that opportunity. If he doesn't hit better next year, the Twins will move on.

There is zero chance the Twins move on from him next year. None.

[gunnarthor]

After starting 2-49, he's been hitting roughly .250/.330/.375 w/31% k-rate and 12% walk rate over his last 49 games. He needs to improve those numbers but those are certainly serviceable offensive numbers.   

[Ryan Atkins]

I can't see much value in the IFFB% statistic.

 

Who does it help to know this info? It won't help Buxton--he already knows he's supposed to hit the ball on the ground. It doesn't help the opposition as far as positioning fielders. It's not useful for evaluating a player that is already at the MLB level and will stay there as long as he continues to play superior defense and hit .200 or better. It doesn't distinguish between line drives (good) and pop-ups (bad).

 

It's interesting and I enjoyed reading this thread, I just don't think Joe Maddon, Paul Molitor, or anyone else in the dugout spends anytime thinking about it. If they are pondering putting a Hit-and-Run play on, it might be mildly valuable to know this number to avoid being doubled up, but I image they are far more concerned with simply knowing how often the hitter makes contact (of any kind).

[Sssuperdave]

 

After starting 2-49, he's been hitting roughly .250/.330/.375 w/31% k-rate and 12% walk rate over his last 49 games. He needs to improve those numbers but those are certainly serviceable offensive numbers.   

 

Totally agree.  He had a horrible start so his numbers have looked bad all year.  Here's his Avg and OPS by month:

 

April: .147, .433

May: .254, .701

June: .228, .653

 

If he'd put up those months in reverse order his OPS for the season would have been between .650 and .700 until about two weeks ago.  While those aren't all-star numbers by any stretch they are definitely serviceable for someone with his defense. 

 

I'm calling it now - his OPS will be over .700 in 2018.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Parker Hageman]

 

After starting 2-49, he's been hitting roughly .250/.330/.375 w/31% k-rate and 12% walk rate over his last 49 games. He needs to improve those numbers but those are certainly serviceable offensive numbers.   

 

 

Yeah, between him hitting the ball harder and not over-pulling, Buxton has come around these past two weeks after making a few tweaks to his approach.

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/875184753133187072

 

[zenser]

Lou Brown would have him doing a lot of push ups.

[MangLitch]

 

Coaches cant fix hardly anything when it comes to batting and that plain as day. I wont argue anymore with this guy in how the Twins need to trade him but will bring it up in 2 years when he is still batting around .200

 

This poor dead horse, it is constantly being beaten.

 

He is batting .247 over his last 30 games. He steals bases and has tremendous defense at 23 years old. Is he Mike Trout, no, no one but Mike Trout is Mike Trout. But jesus people, I refuse to believe that other teams would look at Buxton in their lineup and not be excited because of his contributions even when he isn't reaching his full potential. Sure, if he is doing this at 26, I will get on board but thankfully 23 isn't usually a year these guys plateau when they have this kind of raw talent.

 

These statements are just pure lazy. The KID has a ton of upside and is still a positive WAR player when he struggles. We often sit here and lament bad trades when these guys bud outside of the Twins but want to trade them when they are young and struggling. Are we really not willing to look at this as a process and let a kid blossom.

 

I will take .250 with stolen bases and gold glove defense from our CF any day. Throw in the fact that he has miles of growth that could happen and I don't see how we can really say things like this.

 

Don't really get the people that have this opinion, but I guess it would be par for the course if we traded him and he goes nuts. But I don't think I have to worry about this FO giving up on this kid.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I can't see much value in the IFFB% statistic.

 

Who does it help to know this info? It won't help Buxton--he already knows he's supposed to hit the ball on the ground. It doesn't help the opposition as far as positioning fielders. It's not useful for evaluating a player that is already at the MLB level and will stay there as long as he continues to play superior defense and hit .200 or better. It doesn't distinguish between line drives (good) and pop-ups (bad).

 

It's interesting and I enjoyed reading this thread, I just don't think Joe Maddon, Paul Molitor, or anyone else in the dugout spends anytime thinking about it. If they are pondering putting a Hit-and-Run play on, it might be mildly valuable to know this number to avoid being doubled up, but I image they are far more concerned with simply knowing how often the hitter makes contact (of any kind).

 

NO ONE is supposed to hit the ball on the ground. 

[yarnivek1972]

There is zero chance the Twins move on from him next year. None.

In your opinion.

 

If Buxton plays mostly everyday this year and next he will have roughly 1500 or so PA. If he is still sporting a low .600 career OPS (and it's only that high because of last Sept), I could absolutely see the Twins moving on. A MLB team can't carry an automatic out forever.

[DaveW]

I criticize the Twins more than most in their impaitence, but I don't see any chance at all they move on from Buxton for several years. He is the starting CF for the next 3 years minimum for them (book it)

[Bill Brown69]

Good God!

 

Ozzie Smith in his first 2000 PA's was under .250 BA with an OPS of .600. How do you think the Padres are feeling about moving on from him 35 YEARS LATER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

There are only a few people blessed with the talent to be the best EVER at their position. Byron may never eclipse Willie Mayes as the best overall centerfielder ever but he has a very real chance at being the best defensive centerfielder ever.!.!.!.!.!

 

If he can hit .230 or above he is in my lineup for the next 10+ years.

[jimmer]

I hope Buxton figure it out, but  last September we got a couple articles and a bunch of comments about how he figured it out, like we are starting to see again now. Small hot streaks are fun, but it's hard to get too excited about his offense.  He has a wRC+ of 58.  58!  And he's not getting ripped off by BABIP either, he's above average in BABIP.

 

He does bring value on defense and when he actually gets on base, he's fun to watch, but he needs to improve a lot offensively or he's a even lighter version of Peter Bourjos.

[yarnivek1972]

I criticize the Twins more than most in their impaitence, but I don't see any chance at all they move on from Buxton for several years. He is the starting CF for the next 3 years minimum for them (book it)

Seems to me a lot of people felt that way about Hicks and Span too.

[jimmer]

 

Seems to me a lot of people felt that way about Hicks and Span too.

Span was productive from the git-go and played 5 years for us.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I can't see much value in the IFFB% statistic.

 

Who does it help to know this info? It won't help Buxton--he already knows he's supposed to hit the ball on the ground. It doesn't help the opposition as far as positioning fielders. It's not useful for evaluating a player that is already at the MLB level and will stay there as long as he continues to play superior defense and hit .200 or better. It doesn't distinguish between line drives (good) and pop-ups (bad).

 

It's interesting and I enjoyed reading this thread, I just don't think Joe Maddon, Paul Molitor, or anyone else in the dugout spends anytime thinking about it. If they are pondering putting a Hit-and-Run play on, it might be mildly valuable to know this number to avoid being doubled up, but I image they are far more concerned with simply knowing how often the hitter makes contact (of any kind).

i gotta think Jeff Rowson and Rudy Hernandez value this stat as a piece of evidence to start dissecting swing mechanics/video

[spinowner]

 

In your opinion.

If Buxton plays mostly everyday this year and next he will have roughly 1500 or so PA. If he is still sporting a low .600 career OPS (and it's only that high because of last Sept), I could absolutely see the Twins moving on. A MLB team can't carry an automatic out forever.

Dude is 23 years old. We gave up on Aaron Hicks too soon, and there's no way Falvine will give up on Buck. He will be an All-Star within 3 years.

[yarnivek1972]

Dude is 23 years old. We gave up on Aaron Hicks too soon, and there's no way Falvine will give up on Buck. He will be an All-Star within 3 years.

If that happens, fine. If he's still a negative offensive WAR player after the 2018 season, I don't see the justification for continuing to give him at bats.

[gunnarthor]

A decade or so ago on the old ESPN message boards, fans were done with Justin Morneau. He had over 1000 ML at-bats by May 2006 and an OBP around .310 and an OPS+ below 100 from a power hitting position. Fans were calling for us to trade him for Ty Wiggington, who had hit 8 HR for Tampa early that year.

 

Buxton's been a very good player at every level. He struggled on a nearly historic level to start the year to the point that part of it had to be mental. After those first 15 games, he's been about league avg for a CF in avg and obp but low on pop. His defense is adequate. As fangraphs noted, let him play. He's been yanked around a lot the last few years from injuries and demotions. The FO was right to let him stay in the majors. His talent will win out.

[snepp]

 

His defense is adequate.

 

Did you have a big ol' smirk on your face as you typed this part?

[jokin]

 

 

 

 

 His defense is adequate.

 

Whaaaa......?

 

Baseball Reference lists him in 3rd place in dWAR... for all MLB players, just a shade behind only Addison Russell and Nolan Arenado.