Article: Twins Select Royce Lewis First Overall

[drivlikejehu]

 

Just edited that.  Based on what I've heard his arm is Revere-like...

 

Doesn't look like it to me. 3B would be a stretch if it didn't improve though.

[h2oface]

Meanwhile, at Target field.................. the Giant's cast off has imploded again, and our former first rounder is no relief and gives up the next two inherited runs for a 9-2 deficit after 4. Pitching pitching pitching.

 

12 pitchers gone through 26 picks.

[gagu]

 

Obviously no one can suggest the Astros missed the boat on that, but logically, that really doesn't make much sense for the team that has more (bonus pool) money than everyone else. I'm not an agent, but if the Twins call me and say we're going to pay you x, would you take that if we drafted you at 35? All I'm doing is saying "I don't know. Lemme call the guys at 31-34 and see if they'll offer me more, because what I really want to do is leverage YOU at 35, because: 

A.) You went cheap with the top pick, giving me the impression you are over-valuing the 35th pick (certainly more proportionally than you valued the 1st pick).

B.) You have more money available, so logically, you SHOULD be able to spend more than the teams around the 35th pick, but what's more important is you CAN spend more, so I'm going to shop around.

C.) And thank you for giving me all the power in this conversation. Not sure how many guys you feel are worth paying over slot at the 35th pick but I'm going to guess that list isn't very long and I'm at or near the top of it. Unless your plan was to compile a list of several players you'd like to overpay at this spot . . . ?

Tell ya what, though, if no one else is willing to pay me a little more than you are, congratulations, you got yourself a player no other team was willing to pay as much for at 35 overall. Let's pop the champagne, because you, like everyone else, are smarter than everyone else. 

It's not that complicated, nor is it that simple. Your argument isn't realistic, IMO. Again, I'm not saying the theory is good or bad, just giving the person who originally asked about it an example of how a team worked the system to their advantage. Granted, the amounts allotted have changed, but there is some reasoning behind the strategy. I don't have a clue whether the gambit will work, but unless the team felt that Greene was the real thing, this draft didn't offer anyone worth latching onto for better or worse. Time will tell. 

[ashbury]

Moderator's note: even more so than usual, it's important to stay on the topic, and not make fellow posters be the topic. Do not scold people for having opinions.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Cubs take a pitcher with their first pick.

[h2oface]

 

I'm surprised at how many people who have seen maybe one Youtube clip of a high school righthander who threw 28 innings this year are ready to pronounce themselves experts and excoriate a new front office with many years of scouting and development experience and who saw the high schooler in person multiple times this year.

 

Is Greene a better pick than Lewis? Maybe! But you sure as hell have no idea, and neither do I. I suspect that Falvey & Levine have a somewhat better idea.

 

Well, among other things, I live out here and went to 3 games at Notre Dame High School. It was a radar gun zoo. The parents of the other teammates hated it as the hoards got there early and took all the seats, and the parents and family and students, etc, got the shaft. They were happy he was shut down. It is a good plan to let the important development be done at a much more advanced watch, don't you think? No one knows the future, agreed, but we all have opinions, and isn't that what the comment section is for?

 

And as for the many years' scouts, they all missed Trout, and many many others. They just get paid to watch. I have never been to impressed in general. 

Edited June 13, 2017 by h2oface

[Mr. Brooks]

Can we please stop suggesting that people can't have an opinion if they are not a scout?

 

Personally, I'm going to give the FO the benefit of the doubt- because they are professionals, and have more data than I do.

But, this is literally a site to discuss and give opinions.

[Cooz]

 

The pitcher with the highest ceiling wasn't even the second choice of this Front Office. Telling.

There's a reason no HS RHP has gone No. 1. I don't like passing on him, but I can see why they might have done it. 

My money was on Wright. I wonder how much his performance against OSU impacted his stock. Not saying that's everything, but he's staring down the draft as well as the top team in the country and . . . gives up seven earned in six and change. Walks in a run. Hmmm...

Edited June 13, 2017 by Cooz

[wavedog]

Well, all we can hope for the best. Have to say given the fact we rarely have the #1 pick it is a bit disappointing not to get a franchise impact player. Maybe this just was not the draft to have the top pick. Hope this organization can develop him correctly in 5 or 6 years.

[laloesch]

wow. i'm dissapointed with this selection. For a team so devoid of top pitching prospects this move is puzzling.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Can we please stop suggesting that people can't have an opinion if they are not a scout?

Personally, I'm going to give the FO the benefit of the doubt- because they are professionals, and have more data than I do.
But, this is literally a site to discuss and give opinions.

 

It's appropriate to put those opinions in context. The reality is that MLB clubs have a hard enough time predicting future development . . . the idea that posters on here can do so is just fanciful.

 

It's also one thing to say, 'I would be more excited by Greene,' and another to say 'Falvey blew it, he doesn't know what he's doing.'

 

The first opinion is a reasonable statement of personal preference, albeit one without empirical support. The latter is just an emotional response that has no value in terms of intelligent conversation.

Edited June 13, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[Cooz]

 

I'm surprised at how many people who have seen maybe one Youtube clip of a high school righthander who threw 28 innings this year are ready to pronounce themselves experts and excoriate a new front office with many years of scouting and development experience and who saw the high schooler in person multiple times this year.

 

Is Greene a better pick than Lewis? Maybe! But you sure as heck have no idea, and neither do I. I suspect that Falvey & Levine have a somewhat better idea.

That's weak, though. 

1. He threw 28 innings this year because it was obvious he was a top 3 pick at worst. Why is he throwing more than that?

2. He was the second pick overall. Excuse us for thinking he could/should have been the first. We weren't far off. 

3. If you think people are only formulating their opinions based on their own viewing of YouTube clips, you're way off the mark (you might even be giving fans more credit than you're intending). There are many people who do not work in a front office who understand the game and the draft process. Those people are capable of writing and articulating their observations. We're capable of reading them.

4. The shelf life of a general manager at the major league level isn't exactly massive, so suggesting his position earns him some kind of immunity from criticism is simply based on nothing. Plenty of people are perfectly informed to disagree and criticize intelligently the decisions made by a GM, just as if that GM can make an intelligent argument as to why the decision was made. We might not know the nitty-gritty details, but that's what makes him the GM and us the fan. If it was a dollars issue, then fine, but we can point to reasons why we felt Greene, or Wright, or McKay were better choices than Lewis. You can say Lewis is a solid prospect for reasons A, B and C. But give reasons, not blind-faith in a management team working their first draft together. They can make bad decisions. It does happen. 
 

Edited June 13, 2017 by Cooz

[twinsfanstreif]

There goes Lange, I liked him. At this point it's looking more and more like we cut a deal with Carlson prior to the draft and he told other teams that he wanted a high bonus. He was a top 15 talent, no other reason for him to be here at this point

[Thrylos]

One thing that I have to say:  Hearing both Lewis and McKay speak to the press, I like Lewis's demeanor and attitude, and got to say that I am glad that the Twins did not get McKay.  Flatline affect. 

[Mr. Brooks]

It's appropriate to put those opinions in context. The reality is that MLB clubs have a hard enough time predicting future development . . . the idea that posters on here can do so is just fanciful.

 

It's also one thing to say, 'I would be more excited by Greene,' and another to say 'Falvey blew it, he doesn't know what he's doing.'

 

The first opinion is a reasonable statement of personal preference, albeit one without empirical support. The latter is just an emotional response that has no value in terms of intelligent conversation.

But how many people in here are saying that Falvey doesn't know what he's doing? One, MAYBE two?

Most people are just saying they think they made the wrong pick.

[Mr. Patient]

 

And as for the many years' scouts, they all missed Trout, and many many others. They just get paid to watch. I have never been to impressed in general. 

 

Trout was from a cold-weather state, which made him difficult to scout. And it's not like he fell to the 11th round or anything. He was still a 1st round pick.

 

I am bit confused, though, that on the one hand we seem to be saying, Eh, scouts don't know everything (agreed!), and on the other we're getting upset because the Twins didn't take the guys that many scouts thought was #1.

[h2oface]

 

There's a reason no HS RHP has gone No. 1. I don't like passing on him, but I can see why they might have done it. 

 

Nothing happens.......... until it does. Nobody came back from a 0-3 deficit in the World Series.... forever...... until they did. There was never a draft with these unique opportunities before. It is good fodder for the talking heads, though. They need a lot of time to fill.

Edited June 13, 2017 by h2oface

[drivlikejehu]

 

But how many people in here are saying that Falvey doesn't know what he's doing? One, MAYBE two?
Most people are just saying they think they made the wrong pick.

 

If Falvey is worse at drafting than the average TD poster, that means he doesn't know what he's doing by the standards of an MLB executive.

[Mr. Patient]

 

 

1. He threw 28 innings this year because it was obvious he was a top 3 pick at worst. Why is he throwing more than that?

 

The argument is not that he needed to throw more, but that in his entire HS career, he threw 121 innings.  We have no idea at all what he would do under even a moderate minor league workload.  The risk for a prep pitcher is absolutely enormous.  I don't fault them in the slightest for taking a pass.

 

[goulik]

Gotta be Carlson coming up...

[GameDay]

We could be headed towards a date with destiny in drafting local boy Sam Carlson at #35 coming up here.... stay tuned.

[Cooz]

 

Nothing happens.......... until it does. Nobody came back from a 0-3 deficit in the World Series.... forever...... until they did. There was never a draft with these unique opportunities before. It is good fodder for the talking heads, though. They need a lot of time to fill.

And when someone came back from down 3-0 in the World Series . . . it happened once in forever. You're not betting on it happening again any time soon. 

[Captain Hindsight]

Just edited that.  Based on what I've heard his arm is Revere-like...

 

Where are you reading that? This is what BA had to say:

 

"He has the quick feet and plus arm strength required to play shortstop..."

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mlb-2017-draft-tracker-a/#CYMf8V9t3FPg3g1W.99

 

Granted, it does say some scouts think he may have to move but not because of "Revere-like" arm strength.

[Cooz]

 

One thing that I have to say:  Hearing both Lewis and McKay speak to the press, I like Lewis's demeanor and attitude, and got to say that I am glad that the Twins did not get McKay.  Flatline affect. 

I live a county over from where McKay's from in the Pittsburgh area. Many are like him up there. 

[goulik]

We could be headed towards a date with destiny in drafting local boy Sam Carlson at #35 coming up here.... stay tuned.

37

[Cooz]

Didn't we draft this Rooker guy once already? 

[h2oface]

 

Trout was from a cold-weather state, which made him difficult to scout. And it's not like he fell to the 11th round or anything. He was still a 1st round pick.

 

I am bit confused, though, that on the one hand we seem to be saying, Eh, scouts don't know everything (agreed!), and on the other we're getting upset because the Twins didn't take the guys that many scouts thought was #1.

 

I am just upset because of what I thought. Sure, I read and watched, and even watched Greene in person because I was very close (8 miles) and could, and this team needs pitching and an ace! .... not another guy that maybe won't stick at a position. I generally dislike High School players in the upper rounds. I just will not put scouts on a pedestal, and feel a lot of people could do the job if given the chance.

Edited June 13, 2017 by h2oface

[Mr. Brooks]

If Falvey is worse at drafting than the average TD poster, that means he doesn't know what he's doing by the standards of an MLB executive.

Who is saying that?

Even though he knows what he's doing, he could still have gotten this pick wrong. Thinking he got this one wrong doesn't imply that a poster thinks he/she would be better overall than Falvey.

And, again, it's an opinion on a site literally created for fans to discuss their opinions of the team.

Why can't the response to those opinions be: I disagree. I think Falvey deserves the benefit of the doubt until the results are in, though you are right it could hurt if Greene hits his ceiling?

There is no need to tell people they can't disagree with the pick unless you are a scout.

[GameDay]

 

37

Would be thrilled if this were to be the case. Rooker IMO is a great pick and someone who could fill in excellent as our everyday 1st baseman/DH when Mauer is on his way out or left fielder if he is ready before then (which is more likely). His bat is probably near major league ready at this point. Lewis, Rooker, and Carlson would be a very solid start to the draft. Although I'd like alot more starting pitching. Hopefully our 3rd/4th round draft picks are starting pitchers tomorrow.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Who is saying that?
Even though he knows what he's doing, he could still have gotten this pick wrong. Thinking he got this one wrong doesn't imply that a poster thinks he/she would be better overall than Falvey.
And, again, it's an opinion on a site literally created for fans to discuss their opinions of the team.
Why can't the response to those opinions be: I disagree. I think Falvey deserves the benefit of the doubt until the results are in, though you are right it could hurt if Greene hits his ceiling?
There is no need to tell people they can't disagree with the pick unless you are a scout.

 

I've disagreed with Twins' management many times, when publicly available information allowed me to do so.

 

Posters here simply lack the information needed to make fine distinctions between similar draft picks. I've criticized one draft pick ever - Nick Burdi - because I didn't think his profile fit with where he was taken, and understated the volatility of relievers.