Article: Twins Daily Official MLB Draft Day 1

[Mr. Brooks]

He shouldn't be more than slot (1.8M) in fact I wouldn't be surprised if he's a tad under.

I would hope he'd be way under slot given his predraft ranking.

Splitting the difference between where he went and where he was ranked puts him at about #69. What is the the slot for that pick?

[twins_89]

This is the type of drafting a front office can get away with when they have a proven track record for success, it's a lot harder to be optimistic when the front office is new. Reaching for all 3 first day picks with no clear plan to use the saved money is not promising.

[Mr. Brooks]

Stewart and Jay weren't drafted ahead of their consensus rankings.

 

You can't have it both ways. The Twins have had a lot of failures on "consensus" picks.

 

And until the draft is over, it's obviously impossible to answer that question. If they leave a bunch of money unspent, I will be very displeased, and so I think will everyone on here. But it hasn't happened.

I don't think anyone seriously thinks they are not going to spend their slot pool. The comments suggesting they won't are pretty clear snark. The question is, will any of the players that they spend that savings on make a significant impact?

The later in the draft they wait, the less likely it becomes that those guys make it.

[drivlikejehu]

 

This is the type of drafting a front office can get away with when they have a proven track record for success, it's a lot harder to be optimistic when the front office is new. Reaching for all 3 first day picks with no clear plan to use the saved money is not promising.

 

How do you know they don't have a plan?

[jud6312]

We need the old KFAN button bars, but which one would win?

 

"Cowards, you pathetic cowards!"

 

or 

 

"Enjoy the season!"

[Wedman13]

Love.This.Draft.

 

Wanted Carlson too, but his body is maxed out. Huge potential drafted, plus Rooker, plus $$. A great night

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Twins drafts in those years basically aligned with third-party rankings.

I do like that the Twins seem to have their own list. However when every pick offers the promise of saving signing money, it's a little suspicious. That screams Pohlad.

[Intramural Legend]

Maybe the plan is to go over slot deeper in the draft to help restock the farm system? So far, it certainly seems like an odd strategy...

 

I am going to give the new front office the benefit of the doubt because I want the Twins to be better, but I am at a bit of a loss on tonight

[Mike Sixel]

Stewart and Jay weren't drafted ahead of their consensus rankings.

 

You can't have it both ways. The Twins have had a lot of failures on "consensus" picks. 

 

And until the draft is over, it's obviously impossible to answer that question. If they leave a bunch of money unspent, I will be very displeased, and so I think will everyone on here. But it hasn't happened.

Using money to over draft fifth round quality picks does nothing. You think there are legit first round talents out there? Seems unlikely at this point.

[Mr. Brooks]

The MLB board isn't the be all end all. After the first 20-25 picks it becomes a pretty rough prospect guide.

 

Have you been watching all these players taken today, and seen how many of them were previously drafted? There is a ton of talent that goes unsigned every year. If the Twins sign everyone they draft that is a huge win. High schoolers in the mid-late rounds can be very touch to sign so having the spending power will be big.

 

I like Carlson too but taking him would be putting first round eggs in one pitching basket which is a huge risk. Instead, with the savings they can spread the risk around a dozen or more arms if they want to. High beta guys. There's going to be plenty of ceiling there too. But there's no ceiling if they don't sign.

Fair enough.

I'd rather put all my eggs in a basket like Greene or Carlson rather than a bunch of long shots.

The stock market can be risky too, but I'd still rather chance all my money on that rather than spread it out with a bunch of power ball tickets.

 

Like I said though, the great thing is that we'll eventually get to see the results.

[Wedman13]

This is the type of drafting a front office can get away with when they have a proven track record for success, it's a lot harder to be optimistic when the front office is new. Reaching for all 3 first day picks with no clear plan to use the saved money is not promising.

No offense... but a post that should be revisited in a few years. 3 studs, affordable. How it should be done

[jud6312]

 

Using money to over draft fifth round quality picks does nothing. You think there are legit first round talents out there? Seems unlikely at this point.

But, Mike Piazza.

[twins_89]

 

How do you know they don't have a plan?

 

Based on recent draft history the two options for the 1st pick have been to take the best player or to take a lower ranked player and use the money to grab a player who fell with the team's next pick. Since the Twins did neither of these I'm unsure what the plan would be. I guess they could have a plan, it's just not something that has been done before.

[jud6312]

 

Based on recent draft history the two options for the 1st pick have been to take the best player or to take a lower ranked player and use the money to grab a player who fell with the team's next pick. Since the Twins did neither of these I'm unsure what the plan would be. I guess they could have a plan, it's just not something that has been done before.

LaVelle said "boom," so I trust there will be a boom. It just appears to not be coming from the Wonder Twins.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Using money to over draft fifth round quality picks does nothing. You think there are legit first round talents out there? Seems unlikely at this point.

 

There are plenty of prep arms that are well above "fifth round quality" left. Enlow, Burns, Heatherly,  Scherff, etc. Not mid 1st round guys, clearly, but not filler.

[jud6312]

Form of ... draft day savings

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I would hope he'd be way under slot given his predraft ranking.
Splitting the difference between where he went and where he was ranked puts him at about #69. What is the the slot for that pick?

858K for #69 slot.  1.8M for #37 slot.  656K for #85 slot.  He's a 17 year old HS so he has some leverage but maybe 1.4M ish, just guessing.

Edited June 13, 2017 by Bob Sacamento

[70charger]

Welp. I've got no idea what the **** is going on anymore. 

 

Tiempo para cervezas.

[Mike Sixel]

There are plenty of prep arms that are well above "fifth round quality" left. Enlow, Burns, Heatherly, Scherff, etc. Not mid 1st round guys, clearly, but not filler.

Then they should have taken one. Otherwise someone else will. We are totally in the random phase now.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Then they should have taken one. Otherwise someone else will. We are totally in the random phase now.

 

Those are top 50 caliber prospects; where they are drafted is irrelevant. To say Enlow is an equal prospect to every other remaining player is clearly false.

[jud6312]

3 picks in the first 37?!?!?!?! No way they can screw this up.

 

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/022/702/hold_my_beer.jpg

[Darius]

I'm really enjoying people defending these two picks, like it was the plan all along.

 

Why are there always a few who refuse to admit something went wrong along the way? Virtue signaling? The hope for a spot in the Pohlad's doomsday shelter?

 

They explicitly said they took Lewis for "something big," at 35/37. Clearly, they didn't draft Lewis to sign these guys for over slot. They're trying to get cute, because they're so analytically brilliant, but life off of paper is catching up.

 

No bullpen help coming into the season: Strike 1. The first three rounds of this draft: Strike 2.

[Mr. Brooks]

858K for #69 slot. 1.8M for #37 slot. 656K for #85 slot. He's a 17 year old HS so he has some leverage but maybe 1.4M ish, just guessing.

Well I guess I'll just have to trust that the Twins saw something in him that almost nobody else did.

The thing is, if you overreach and overpay banking on seeing something nobody else does... you better be right. I'll be keeping an eye on this kid for sure.

I wish him the best of luck.

[AZTwin]

I actually liked the Lewis pick but that was the assumption that they got another top end talent. Rooker okay, some more savings, but Carlson still on the board. Landon Leach? Yikes. Only plus side that I like is that he hasn't pitched a long time so there's upside like berrios but not sure how you pass on Carlson there.

Edited June 13, 2017 by AZTwin

[Mike Sixel]

Those are top 50 caliber prospects; where they are drafted is irrelevant. To say Enlow is an equal prospect to every other remaining player is clearly false.

If that is their plan, they just lost out on Carlson. Based on their actions, I am thinking it isn't their plan. Since, as we know, they went underslot on three picks. Not one.

[Wedman13]

I'm really enjoying people defending these two picks, like it was the plan all along.

 

Why are there always a few who refuse to admit something went wrong along the way? Virtue signaling? The hope for a spot in the Pohlad's doomsday shelter?

 

They explicitly said they took Lewis for "something big," at 35/37. Clearly, they didn't draft Lewis to sign these guys for over slot. They're trying to get cute, because they're so analytically brilliant, but life off of paper is catching up.

 

No bullpen help coming into the season: Strike 1. The first three rounds of this draft: Strike 2.

So to be clear in the future... your 2-3 top picks - based on who were available - were??

[drivlikejehu]

 

If that is their plan, they just lost out on Carlson. Based on their actions, I am thinking it isn't their plan. Since, as we know, they went underslot on three picks. Not one.

 

Well a bunch of teams passed on Carlson, but then Seattle took him pretty late despite not appearing to have much extra draft pool money. So it seems like there's more to the story there.

 

I'm not sure it's even possible to spread out the Twins' extra money in the way you are suggesting they might . . . it would definitely be unprecedented in draft history. I don't think it's a real possibility.

 

It's pretty much a certainty that the savings will be allocated to a small number of players, or even 1 player.

[John Bonnes]

I'm looking for theories here. I have no idea what happened. My current theorems:

 

1. These latter two picks make sense IF they didn't get any kind of discount from Boras and Lewis. That is certainly possible.

 

2. Their choice got sniped sometime before 35. Either the agent they were working with didn't get the word out or a team saved money someplace else.

 

3. They couldn't come to agreement with Carlson (who seemed to be the obvious pick).

 

Anything I'm missing?

[KirbyDome89]

 

I actually liked the Lewis pick but that was the assumption that they got another top end talent. Rooker okay, some Moreno savings, but Carlson still on the board. Landon Leach? Yikes. Only plus side that I like is that he hasn't pitched a long time so there's upside like berrios but not sure how you pass on Carlson there.

Basically the same range of emotions here. I was cool with Lewis 1-1 and assumed they either saw McKay/Greene/Lewis as equals talent wise, or they viewed Lewis as the best overall. The Rooker pick might have been a small reach but still an exciting pick and apparently they saved more cash. The Leach pick was when I started wondering WTF was going on. That one was disappointing to say the least....

[twinsfanstreif]

Listen, I'm not super crazy about the last 2 picks either but Rooker was a guy we all talked about and he looks like a good one, his numbers were much better than McKay's as a 1B. And the Leach pick took me off guard but he definitely has potential, this is not like the Bashore pick where he looked doomed from the start. There also has to be more to the Carlson story and maybe he did tell teams he wouldn't sign but Seattle decided to take the risk, there is still a chance he won't sign. In 2012 I really wanted the Twins to draft Mitch Brown and we passed on him three times (or was it four?) and he hasn't really done much, maybe Carlson really wasn't as good as we all thought, who knows