Article: Twins 3, San Francisco 2: Dozier, Vargas Power Twins Behind Solid Start From Berrios

[Tom Froemming]

Kennys Vargas hit the third-longest home run in baseball this year, Brian Dozier added a two-run blast of his own, Jose Berrios pitched his way out of jams all afternoon and the bullpen slammed the door as the Twins beat the Giants 3-2.Twins 3, Giants 2

Box Score

 

Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs)

Download attachment: WE610.png

In Berrios’ turbulent 2016 season with the Twins not much went right, but one thing he struggled with in particular was getting the third out. It seemed he could never stop the bleeding. He gave up an .840 OPS with no outs, .817 OPS with one out and that ballooned to a 1.132 OPS with two down.

 

Berrios has been better all around this year, but the dropoff in two-out OPS has been dramatic. With no outs, opponents have had a .638 OPS, with one out a .604 OPS and with two outs opposing batters had just a .398 OPS entering today’s game.

 

Jose was not very efficient today, but he finished off innings. The Giants loaded the bases with one out in the third inning, but The Machine was not about to crack. He struck out Brandon Crawford. He struck out Hunter Pence. Inning over. Here is some info on those two at-bats:

Download attachment: CrawK.png

Download attachment: PenceK.png

Berrios ran into trouble again in the fifth. Eduardo Nunez led off the inning with a walk, followed by a Brandon Belt single. Nunez scored on a Posey groundout. With Belt at second and one out, it was deja vu all over again. Instead of unravelling and giving up a big inning, Berrios struck out Crawford, struck out Pence. Inning over.

 

Berrios had eight strikeouts over 5.1 innings. He gave up two runs on six hits and three walks, throwing 97 pitches in the process.

 

Kennys Vargas got the Twins on the board in the fourth inning by slugging the third-longest home run of the season. Here’s the data from MLBBarrelAlert on Twitter:

Here’s the highlight via Statcast on Twitter:

Brian Dozier hammered a two-run shot the next inning to put the Twins up. The heatmap below via Baseball Savant shows how Dozier has been pitched so far in 2017. No surprise, teams are staying down and away.

Download attachment: DozierZone.png

Whether they intended to or not, Giants pitchers gave Dozer a few pullable pitches on the inner half of the plate. He made sure they paid for it.

Download attachment: Dozier.png

Tyler Duffey got the last two outs of the sixth, and pitched the seventh. Matt Belisle handled the eighth and Brandon Kintzler picked up his 17th save. The bullpen threw 3.2 perfect innings.

 

Also, Chris Gimenez stole a base.

 

Postgame With Molitor

 

Today

Twins (Nik Turley) at San Francisco (Matt Cain, 4.87 ERA), 3:05 pm CT

 

Turley, who grew up in California, will be making his major league debut. He had a combined 2.05 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 14.4 K/9 between Rochester and Chattanooga this season. Lee Roth of the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle wrote a great profile of Turley, highlighting his last start in which he dominated the Yankees Triple A team. Cain has been very good at home this season, posting a 1.82 ERA in six starts (8.40 road ERA).

 

AL Central Standings

• Twins 32-26
• Cleveland 30-28 (-2.0)*
• Detroit 29-31 (-4.0)*
• Kansas City 27-34 (-5.0)
• Chicago 25-34 (-6.0)*

*Saturday games still in progress at the time of publishing this article.

 

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[carlito_b]

Just wanted to say that the write ups on the big league club have put the website over the top.. As a person who played sports at a high level it can be frustrating trying to find a website that actually has knowledgeable writers and yall definitely fit the bill.. Just wanted to let you know how great I think the site is.. Appreciate your guys effort

[jimbo92107]

Fantastic write-up!

 

I can tell you one big reason not to trade Ervin Santana - his effect on Jose Berrios. The super-talented youngster is watching Santana's every move on the mound, and it's gradually soaking in. You can see Berrios rapidly developing an organized, self-controlled presence on the bump. It's still a long way from the Zen-like calm of his mentor, but Berrios is quickly becoming a remarkably mature-looking pitcher. Oh, and his change up should be considered his third plus pitch at this point. Berrios can throw any of his three pitches for strike three. He should start throwing a lot more change ups with two strikes.

 

Meanwhile, I'm sort of hoping other teams don't notice how hard Kennys Vargas hit that home run on Saturday. 116 miles for each hour it traveled. I wonder if my motorcycle can go that fast... ;-)

[mikelink45]

How great to have the article talking about the young Twins.   It is the youth that will propel us to the upper echelon and I am delighted to hear about Berrios and Vargas and want us to continue to lean on the young players in the system.

[Old Twins Cap]

Talk about trading Santana is just absurd. 

 

The first place Minnesota Twins are going to trade their All-Star pitcher, who is affordable and has thrown three complete game shutouts?

 

What people don't understand is that not only do the Twins have a chance to make the playoffs, but the Front Office have to be able to look players, fans and the media in the face for the balance of their tenure.

[brettbrett88]

Talk about trading Santana is just absurd.

 

The first place Minnesota Twins are going to trade their All-Star pitcher, who is affordable and has thrown three complete game shutouts?

 

What people don't understand is that not only do the Twins have a chance to make the playoffs, but the Front Office have to be able to look players, fans and the media in the face for the balance of their tenure.

I posted this in the game thread that will disappear soon so I'm re posting it in here because I think it's important that as many people see it as possible...I couldn't agree with you any more Old Twon Cap..well said!!!

 

Wins breed confidence and confidence equals wins!

 

Not playing amazing baseball but the baseball the Twins are playing is solid and getting the job done

 

As the saying goes...'One game at a time'

 

I'm a relatively new baseball fan and I don't know too much about your troubles last season and the details of what went wrong but after Leicester winning the premier league...it just goes to show that anything can happen!

 

Also the Indians just lost to the White Sox at home and their record so far doesn't live up to how they played last season..Also does anyone know the Indians record at this stage last season?

 

Keep the faith guys! Go Twins!

Edited June 11, 2017 by brettbrett88

[DocBauer]

Love these write ups! Takes this awesome website even another notch, and I wasn't even sure that was possible. Even when I catch all or most of a game, the following wrap up puts icing on the game.

 

100% agree on keeping Santana. He's good and this team needs pitching. It doesn't hurt having him to learn from as well, whether it be Berrios, Mejia or those yet to come. It could be argued Santana has never pitched better in his career, overall, since coming to the Twins. And he sure appears to have life left. But we want to trade away our best pitcher for prospects and not win? I just don't see Santana, as much as I love him, bringing back another high quality arm unless some team is desperate to fulfill their opportunity this season.

 

 

[Tommygun921]

I agree with the above praise. I enjoy the big club post game wraps as well. As well as keeping Santana. You can certainly see that he has to be rubbing off on Jose. Hopefully pitching deeper into games wears off as well. Nice to have a pitcher that can strike his way out of a jam.

[diehardtwinsfan]

So does Sano have any HRs longer than that Vargas shot?

[Platoon]

At this juncture I would not trade Santana. The only reason I would consider it is if the haul included a couple of the very hard to define "solid SP prospects". And the only reason for that is this team need numbers so badly. It does little good to have an Ace, if the bottom 2-3 of the rotation is cannon fodder.

[Mr. Brooks]

Fantastic write-up!

 

I can tell you one big reason not to trade Ervin Santana - his effect on Jose Berrios. The super-talented youngster is watching Santana's every move on the mound, and it's gradually soaking in. You can see Berrios rapidly developing an organized, self-controlled presence on the bump. It's still a long way from the Zen-like calm of his mentor, but Berrios is quickly becoming a remarkably mature-looking pitcher. Oh, and his change up should be considered his third plus pitch at this point. Berrios can throw any of his three pitches for strike three. He should start throwing a lot more change ups with two strikes.

 

Meanwhile, I'm sort of hoping other teams don't notice how hard Kennys Vargas hit that home run on Saturday. 116 miles for each hour it traveled. I wonder if my motorcycle can go that fast... ;-)

Do you have any proof that Santana has an effect on Berrios?

And, if so, that it is a positive one?

Because Santana was on the team last year too, when Berrios was terrible.

I'm not saying that he doesn't. But I don't know. And, not sure how you can know.

Without any kind of evidence, that is no different than me saying that Berrios was terrible last year because of Santana.

Correlation does not always mean causation.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

 

Do you have any proof that Santana has an effect on Berrios?
And, if so, that it is a positive one?
Because Santana was on the team last year too, when Berrios was terrible.
I'm not saying that he doesn't. But I don't know. And, not sure how you can know.
Without any kind of evidence, that is no different than me saying that Berrios was terrible last year because of Santana.
Correlation does not always mean causation.

The quote and link to an article from Seth probably doesn't solve the debate, but I think it does add some credibility to the positive relationship between Santana and Berrios. True, their relationship, as it existed last year--and when this piece was written--didn't correlate to a winning season "when Berrios was terrible." But my qualitative sense of relationships, not necessarily quantitative or measurable, is that we humans are best when we support each other in difficult times, and that stability helps us make it through the difficult times. Sometimes we come out of difficult, terrible times, and we turn our lives and careers around, and thrive.

 

I prefer to think that having Santana pitch the day before Berrios is about mentoring, relationships, and building a stronger team. Perhaps that's naive. 

 

The quote from Seth: "One thing that stood out to me was the relationship between Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana."

 

And the article: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/22211-article-its-berrios-time/

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

I echo that these writeups are phenomenal, well done to all involved. As for trading Santana, I think we should be open to the idea. If a team is desperate, and will give us 2-3 top 100 prospects, we should absolutely do it. While we might make the playoffs this year, we are not championship caliber yet, and we don't have the pieces in AAA to get there in the next year. However, if we can get a stud or two that can be part of the Gonsalves/Romero/Wright (if they draft him) wave, we could have a nice rotation in 2019. Not a bad return for a wild card/first round loss in 2017.

[bluechipper]

Berrios looked very good again, and I think those 2 doubles he gave up would have been caught by Buxton. I guess Berrios drew the short stick in having both Grossman and Rosario in the outfield for his start.

[Jerr]

Just wanted to say that the write ups on the big league club have put the website over the top.. As a person who played sports at a high level it can be frustrating trying to find a website that actually has knowledgeable writers and yall definitely fit the bill.. Just wanted to let you know how great I think the site is.. Appreciate your guys effort

Bears REPEATING!!!!!!!

 

Whether I hear the game or not, these wrap ups make it even better.

 

And TWINS DAILY is the only site that a Twins fan needs!

 

Great job and a big thanks to those that run it and to all you great posters that are here!!!

Edited June 11, 2017 by Jerr

[70charger]

 

So does Sano have any HRs longer than that Vargas shot?

 

Nope!

 

It was the third-longest in the majors this year, trailing only Jake Lamb and George Springer. It was also the longest and hardest-hit home run by any Twin in the "Statcast era" of 2015 - now.

 

That was a freaking moonshot.

[Mr. Brooks]

The quote and link to an article from Seth probably doesn't solve the debate, but I think it does add some credibility to the positive relationship between Santana and Berrios. True, their relationship, as it existed last year--and when this piece was written--didn't correlate to a winning season "when Berrios was terrible." But my qualitative sense of relationships, not necessarily quantitative or measurable, is that we humans are best when we support each other in difficult times, and that stability helps us make it through the difficult times. Sometimes we come out of difficult, terrible times, and we turn our lives and careers around, and thrive.

 

I prefer to think that having Santana pitch the day before Berrios is about mentoring, relationships, and building a stronger team. Perhaps that's naive.

 

The quote from Seth: "One thing that stood out to me was the relationship between Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana."

 

And the article: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/22211-article-its-berrios-time/

Again, that could very well be.

But his performance could also be completely unrelated to Santana.

Its a perfectly fair opinion, I just see it passed off as established fact, and that bugs me a bit.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Again, that could very well be.

But his performance could also be completely unrelated to Santana.

Its a perfectly fair opinion, I just see it passed off as established fact, and that bugs me a bit.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Indeed, Mr. Brooks. Point well taken. So much focus these days is on analytics, and measurable criteria.

 

I still like to believe that some players "get hot" because of relationships, inspiration, or heart. The old story of the crafty veteran taking the promising phenom under his confident wing is good story.

 

There is some analytics here too, popularly called a "tipping point"enough experience/repetitive acts "causes" greater proficiency. Perhaps that's where someone like Santana eases Berrios though the process until everything starts to "click" or "tip" in a positive direction.