2017 MLB draft thread

[beckmt]

 

I know this has been debated a million times but I am looking for a great to potentially elite player instead of filling a need with the #1 overall pick. Right now the team has average or below average players almost everywhere (including the farm system) so if this player realizes his potential then there will be space.

Of course it would be great if that player was a pitcher or a SS (catchers at #1 overall scare me unless they are legitimately great prospects - Mauer - Posey - Wieters types)

I would strongly disagree on the below average players in regard to position players.  Pitching staff is another issue.

Looked at the links and I agree one of the two(Greene or Faedo) stand out, but spring can change a lot.  Would lean toward Greene because he has ace potential, but he is only high school.  Faedo will need to show he is fully healthy this spring, but I feel he has a chance to be here in 2019, Greene is more of the 2020 or 2021 type.  And the Twins need ace types now.

[Cory Engelhardt]

MLB pipeline did a podcast that I listened to this morning on the way to the bus. They talked about the general strengths (college pitching) and weaknesses (hitting, both college and high school) of the class. They talked about the top 5 picks quite a bit (they really like Kendall, and they said that Faedo is the best college pitcher right now, but Kyle Wright absolutely has more projection, and both will absolutely be starting pitchers at the next level, especially when comparing to Carson Fulmer of the White Sox/Vanderbilt)

But man, they love Hunter Greene. They talked to a scout at one point who said the best high school pitcher he had ever scouted was Josh Beckett, and this scout is saying that Greene is better than Josh Beckett was in high school. He is that good. Great fastball, plus curveball and has a feel for an average to above average fastball, along with great athleticism.

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They were asked about the 1st pick. They said that with how the Twins front office is shaping up to be more analytical, they guessed the Twins would take Kendall or either of the two top college pitchers. They also said, if they had the first pick, they would take Greene and not look back.

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http://mlb.mlb.com/fan_forum/podcasts/index.jsp?c_id=mlb&podcast=mlb_pipeline

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I know this has been debated a million times but I am looking for a great to potentially elite player instead of filling a need with the #1 overall pick. Right now the team has average or below average players almost everywhere (including the farm system) so if this player realizes his potential then there will be space.

Of course it would be great if that player was a pitcher or a SS (catchers at #1 overall scare me unless they are legitimately great prospects - Mauer - Posey - Wieters types)

 

I think we are all in agreement there, and at 1 overall, an elite player is certainly a possibility.  I also think we all really really really really hope that there is a once a decade player at a position of need vs. say a 3B or something like that.

[jimmer]

We desperately need talent everywhere including 3B.  No minor league depth at 3B at all and we're going to need someone there soon.

[jimmer]

Jonathan Mayo has Hunter Greene as the #1 draft prospect (with the plan to have him as a pitcher) with Jeren Kendall (toolsy OF at Vanderbilt) #2.

 

Hunter Greene has a commitment to UCLA.  If the Twins draft him #1, does he decline and go to UCLA?

 

He also mentions Faedo (pitcher from Florida) as a possible #1 if he shows his knees are healthy.

[darin617]

As long as they don't draft a high school player I am fine with whoever they choose. It would be nice to get a player that could contribute in 2 years or so.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Jonathan Mayo has Hunter Greene as the #1 draft prospect (with the plan to have him as a pitcher) with Jeren Kendall (toolsy OF at Vanderbilt) #2.

 

Hunter Greene has a commitment to UCLA.  If the Twins draft him #1, does he decline and go to UCLA?

 

He also mentions Faedo (pitcher from Florida) as a possible #1 if he shows his knees are healthy.

If he plans on playing baseball he should.  It isn't like he'd do better in 3 years, and he's absorbing a ton of risk.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

We desperately need talent everywhere including 3B.  No minor league depth at 3B at all and we're going to need someone there soon.

yeah, I'm not saying 3B isn't something we need.  We just happen to have a young controllable asset there who could be elite in his own right.  We have time to find Sano's replacement and have some intriguing options in the lower minors.

 

I am saying that I'd much prefer any potential elite talent be a SS, C, or SP, given the organization's needs. 

[nicksaviking]

 

As long as they don't draft a high school player I am fine with whoever they choose. It would be nice to get a player that could contribute in 2 years or so.

 

Three or the past five HS kids drafted at 1-1 that signed have debuted within three years. And that doesn't include Bryce Harper who went to Junior College as a 17-year-old so he could get drafted early.

[jimmer]

If the Twins draft Hunter Greene with the first pick, he will be the first right handed high school pitcher drafted 1-1.

[jimmer]

When Sano gets moved to 1B or DH in 2-3 years, who is down in the minors that we even consider might be a good 3B prospect?  I don't know of one.

[kab21]

 

I would strongly disagree on the below average players in regard to position players.  Pitching staff is another issue.

Looked at the links and I agree one of the two(Greene or Faedo) stand out, but spring can change a lot.  Would lean toward Greene because he has ace potential, but he is only high school.  Faedo will need to show he is fully healthy this spring, but I feel he has a chance to be here in 2019, Greene is more of the 2020 or 2021 type.  And the Twins need ace types now.

I said the team has average OR below average players up and down the MLB/MiLB depth chart. The Twins need everything right now.

 

Players that are or with a very good chance of being above average

Sano - not really a 3B

Dozier - likely traded

Kepler

Buxton

 

Gordon, Kirilloff, Polanco, Palka are nice prospects but not remotely close to being good bets to being above average at this point. The upside of a #1 pick isn't being blocked by anyone on the roster or in the system. The rest of the players will be moved to make room for that player.

[drjim]

My hot take is unless a college pitcher really, really blows up the Twins will take Kendall. But it will be fun talking about it between now and then.

[gunnarthor]

Is it too early for a mock draft?  Of course not.  Here's mlbpipeline's first mock draft.  Has the Twins taking either Greene or Faedo.  

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/210967192/mock-draft-early-look-at-2017s-top-10-picks/

 

I agree with Callis' take: 

"Callis: Alex Faedo, RHP, Florida. Hunter Greene is the consensus top prospect right now, but I can't see Minnesota's new regime becoming the first to take a high school right-hander at 1-1. The Twins are more apt to take whomever they deem as the best of a deep college pitching crop."

[nicksaviking]

Faedo interests me a lot, but if the team passes on Greene it better be for reasons other than the rediculous "no one has ever taken a HS right hander at 1-1"

 

So what? I don't even see how that is relevant, does that statement somehow change the player's skill set? Can being a HS right hander disqualify a guy from being the best player available somehow?

[gunnarthor]

 

Faedo interests me a lot, but if the team passes on Greene it better be for reasons other than the rediculous "no one has ever taken a HS right hander at 1-1"

 

So what? I don't even see how that is relevant, does that statement somehow change the player's skill set? Can being a HS right hander disqualify a guy from being the best player available somehow?

Well, the obvious response is that teams consider both potential future value and potential future risk.  If they think Green has the higher ceiling but also has a much better chance of failing, they might pass on him anyway.  And they also will probably take into account signing bonus demands.  If they can get Faedo for a million dollars less, that will help them either keep the Pohlads rich or spend it on picks # 35 and 37.  

 

 

[drjim]

I like our new front office and they'll make good changes, but they still strike me as pretty risk adverse. It will be too difficult to pass up the legit college bat.

[nicksaviking]

 

Well, the obvious response is that teams consider both potential future value and potential future risk.  If they think Green has the higher ceiling but also has a much better chance of failing, they might pass on him anyway.  And they also will probably take into account signing bonus demands.  If they can get Faedo for a million dollars less, that will help them either keep the Pohlads rich or spend it on picks # 35 and 37.  

 

Those are legit reasons, though saving the Pohlads money may not get a warm reception. I'd just be disappointed if Greene was passed on because nobody has ever done such a thing before and god forbid we do something first.

 

That's not a reason not to do anything.

[drjim]

The other benefit of Kendall would be that he should be a more straightforward signing, probably with a decent discount, so they would be able to spread that savings around a little bit. Might allow for some investment in high upside hs arms at 35 and 37 with a "safer" 1-1 pick.

[Mike Sixel]

Kendall would have to show me A LOT more hitting ability to be 1:1.....he's no Bryant.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'll always take upside over floor. Especially in the first round.

If they can find a safer pick that has ace upside then fine, but if Greene is the only one with ace upside then they better not pass.

[markos]

 

I'll always take upside over floor. Especially in the first round.
If they can find a safer pick that has ace upside then fine, but if Greene is the only one with ace upside then they better not pass.

I'm confident that there will be someone available with ace upside with their second and third picks. Defined broadly enough (and I define it pretty broadly), lots of pitchers have the potential to become an ace if everything works right. Consider 2010. Jameson Taillon was the clear-cut top pitching prospect in the draft and ended up going #2. If Harper wasn't in the same draft, Taillon would have had buzz as potentially the first RHP HS 1-1 pick, just like Greene. Noah Syndergaard was in the same draft. He was interesting: a big kid who worked 90-95 at the time, had a decent breaking ball but no change up. But he wasn't an elite draft prospect. He was given a 3rd-4th round grade; Keith Law didn't have him in his top-100 draft prospects; he was only offered a baseball scholarship from one college (Dallas Baptist University); he was drafted #38 but signed for 3rd round money. Aaron Sanchez is probably Ace-lite at this point, and he was picked just 5 spots ahead of Thor, also by the Blue Jays. 

[The Wise One]

 

I'll always take upside over floor. Especially in the first round.
If they can find a safer pick that has ace upside then fine, but if Greene is the only one with ace upside then they better not pass.

If drafting were such an easy thing to do, especially picking an Ace please explain , Corey Kluber was a 4th round pick, Luke Hochevar went number one overall that year.

[Mr. Brooks]

If drafting were such an easy thing to do, especially picking an Ace please explain , Corey Kluber was a 4th round pick, Luke Hochevar went number one overall that year.

Where did I say it was easy? I'm giving my view on passing on Greene just because it's risky or he's far away from the majors.

 

If the scouts think someone else is a better player then yeah, take them.

If the scouts say Greene is the clear cut bpa, don't pass just because you want someone here in <2 years.

[The Wise One]

 

Where did I say it was easy? I'm giving my view on passing on Greene just because it's risky or he's far away from the majors.

If the scouts think someone else is a better player then yeah, take them.
If the scouts say Greene is the clear cut bpa, don't pass just because you want someone here in <2 years.

Many thought Hochevar was the BPA for a couple of drafts.  Clear cut choices like Harper and Strasburg  are rare.

[Mr. Brooks]

Many thought Hochevar was the BPA for a couple of drafts. Clear cut choices like Harper and Strasburg are rare.

If their scouts were convinced that Hochever was the best pick then it was still the right choice at that time.

Yes, even 1-1 can be a bust.

I don't understand what your point is.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Kendall would have to show me A LOT more hitting ability to be 1:1.....he's no Bryant.

Exactly, Kendall has plus tools all around (speed, arm strength, CF defense, power) except for his contact and his plate discipline which is suspect at this point.

[gunnarthor]

It's pretty early but since this draft is rich in pitching and the Twins have several early picks and a need for pitching, I'd be shocked if they went with Kendall unless he turned into a Harper/Bryant type.  I suspect we might load up on pitching with our first few picks.  

 

I'm hoping the Twins can get a top 10 talent to drop to 35 on bonus demands but I'm not sure if that's likely.  But if the Twins could come away with something like both Faedo and Hall, I'd be thrilled.*

 

* Usual caveat that we don't know who will be top 10 talents in June yet.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

It's pretty early but since this draft is rich in pitching and the Twins have several early picks and a need for pitching, I'd be shocked if they went with Kendall unless he turned into a Harper/Bryant type.  I suspect we might load up on pitching with our first few picks.  

 

I'm hoping the Twins can get a top 10 talent to drop to 35 on bonus demands but I'm not sure if that's likely.  But if the Twins could come away with something like both Faedo and Hall, I'd be thrilled.*

 

* Usual caveat that we don't know who will be top 10 talents in June yet.

Almost every year there is a Top 10 talent that falls due to signing concerns; last year Groome was a 1-1 talent (but floated out that he wanted 5M before BoSox said screw it and got him for 3.5M), the year before there was Daz Cameron.  The Twins would have to go save a few million on the 1-1 which pretty much is a guarantee from past drafts so they could reallocate it for the supplemental pick.  

 

You can bet pitching will be concentrated effort for Falvey and Levine, wouldn't be shocked to go for a "surer thing" at 1-1 and go high upside at 35 and in Rd 2. 

 

DL Hall would be a steal at 35, reminds me of Scott Kazmir.  He didn't pitch in the WWBA but did throw a side session for scouts while hitting in the heart of his team's lineup.

[d-mac]

 

If their scouts were convinced that Hochever was the best pick then it was still the right choice at that time.
Yes, even 1-1 can be a bust.
I don't understand what your point is.

 

But the scouts were wrong, so it wasn't. A lot of us don't understand what your point is.