Time for Duffey at SP?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the question here is how long Hughes will be on the DL. That has to be answered first.  While I've been clear that I think Duffey deserves another chance to start, if this Hughes DL stint is short, it won't happen.  He will need to get stretched out (though that should be easy enough as he can be set to get stretched out during Gibson or Mejia's next start).

 

If that stint is long, I have to think they need to do it.  This team will be better off with Gibson in AAA, Duffey in the rotation, and one of the AA/AAA relievers up in the pen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hasn't Hughes shown enough (or so little?) the past few years that, however long the DL stint, he should probably use the full 30 day rehab for evaluation? No reason to let him take the MLB mound again if nothing has changed and just hope for the best.

[drjim]

 

Hasn't Hughes shown enough (or so little?) the past few years that, however long the DL stint, he should probably use the full 30 day rehab for evaluation? No reason to let him take the MLB mound again if nothing has changed and just hope for the best.

 

Depends on the alternative.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Hasn't Hughes shown enough (or so little?) the past few years that, however long the DL stint, he should probably use the full 30 day rehab for evaluation? No reason to let him take the MLB mound again if nothing has changed and just hope for the best.

Yeah, this. If he's still in the high 80s, use the full extent of that rehab. He simply isn't effective at that velocity and despite the rotation's current woes, it's unlikely he'll be significantly better than someone you pull off the waiver wire (or even Gibson, should he ever get his head on straight again).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Depends on the alternative.

In the context of holding Duffey back from starting, it really doesn't.

[Riverbrian]

During ST I assumed we had:

 

Santana

Santiago

Gibson

Hughes

May

Berrios

Duffey

Mejia

 

I didn't think that was enough

 

Since then Duffey was moved to the pen... May is out for the year... Gibson and Hughes have struggled.

 

We are down to 4

 

What was the question again?

[Linus]

I really thought Molly was going to run him out there for a third inning last night. Another couple bullpen and maybe he could go 5-6 as a starter. I didn't like the idea before but I don't see another alternative.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I really thought Molly was going to run him out there for a third inning last night. Another couple bullpen and maybe he could go 5-6 as a starter. I didn't like the idea before but I don't see another alternative.

 

my point.. if they think Hughes will miss a start or two, then a "pray for rain during the next Tepesh start" may be appropriate (though they could use that to stretch out Duffey as well).  If Hughes is going to be out a while... well, that's just not good.

[USAFChief]

 I hope they leave Duffey right where he is.  He's an asset in the pen, or can be.  He's not an asset in the rotation...he's just a guy.

[Thrylos]

So you take an accomplished College closer and try to turn him into a starter, but he becomes a failed starter, then get him back in the pen where he is on his way of shining again, and want to repeat that failed experiment?

 

No Way.

 

The Twins do need one, maybe two starters, but they should not break what is not broken (and, mind you very fragile) to fix that.  I hope that Gibson rebounds.  The thing with him is mental. They might have to go outside the organization for an extra starting arm

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 I hope they leave Duffey right where he is.  He's an asset in the pen, or can be.  He's not an asset in the rotation...he's just a guy.

If Duffey could even be a league-average starter, that's not "just a guy."

[Dr. Evil]

We need to build up our pen and our rotation. He is a piece of the bullpen that is working. Leave it alone.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So you take an accomplished College closer and try to turn him into a starter, but he becomes a failed starter, then get him back in the pen where he is on his way of shining again, and want to repeat that failed experiment?

 

No Way.

 

The Twins do need one, maybe two starters, but they should not break what is not broken (and, mind you very fragile) to fix that.  I hope that Gibson rebounds.  The thing with him is mental. They might have to go outside the organization for an extra starting arm

They're unlikely to find a quality starting arm outside the organization for the next 2 months, unless they are willing to pay an arm and a leg (no pun intended!).

 

Duffey had a rough 2016 season, no doubt, but I'm not sure he is a completely failed starter.  Was Berrios a failed starter after last year too?  Was Hughes a failed starter after 2011 or 2013?  Was Ervin Santana a failed starter after 2007, 2009, or 2012?

 

Everyone knew Duffey would have adjustments to make after 2015, and he didn't really get a break to make them after he started struggling in 2016 -- we kept throwing him out there every 5th day on a pretty dysfunctional MLB squad.  He only returned to the minors for 2 starts, at the end of August and early September, and then was right back into the fire.

 

We seem to be giving credit to the new leadership, coaches, and catchers for helping get other guys on track in 2017 after a difficult 2016.  I'm not sure why we're not extending the same benefit of the doubt to Duffey -- his current success may not be solely due to his bullpen assignment.

[rghrbek]

 

So you take an accomplished College closer and try to turn him into a starter, but he becomes a failed starter, then get him back in the pen where he is on his way of shining again, and want to repeat that failed experiment?

 

No Way.

 

The Twins do need one, maybe two starters, but they should not break what is not broken (and, mind you very fragile) to fix that.  I hope that Gibson rebounds.  The thing with him is mental. They might have to go outside the organization for an extra starting arm

 

You have me with the first paragraph, but not so much on the last paragraph...it's all mental?  Possibly.

Per Gleeman:

415 pitchers have 500+ innings since 2000 and Kyle Gibson (38%) is the only one to throw fewer than 40% of his pitches in the strike zone.

 

That failure is over a long period of time...continuing to trot him out there makes no sense.  I want Duffey in the pen, but if that is my only other option, I would bring him back to the rotation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

We need to build up our pen and our rotation. He is a piece of the bullpen that is working. Leave it alone.

What exactly are we doing to build up our pen?

 

What exactly can we do to build up our rotation?

[Thrylos]

 

You have me with the first paragraph, but not so much on the last paragraph...it's all mental?  Possibly.

Per Gleeman:

415 pitchers have 500+ innings since 2000 and Kyle Gibson (38%) is the only one to throw fewer than 40% of his pitches in the strike zone.

 

That failure is over a long period of time...continuing to trot him out there makes no sense. 

 

Yes, it is mental.  He is afraid to hammer the zone.  Same with Berrios last season.  Totally mental and hopefully fixable.

[Riverbrian]

He was our best starter in 2015

 

He struggled in 2016

 

I'm not personally ready to define him as a failed starter. 

 

 

[Dr. Evil]

 

What exactly are we doing to build up our pen?

 

What exactly can we do to build up our rotation?

I'm saying they are both in need of improvement and thus both need assets. Duffey is showing signs of being a reliable pen piece. Maybe even a set up man in the near future. That is valuable. Leave him on his current path. Leave success alone and mess around somewhere else.

[Doomtints]

 

He was our best starter in 2015

 

He struggled in 2016

 

I'm not personally ready to define him as a failed starter. 

Is anyone calling him a "failed starter"?

I'm calling him a successful reliever.

The two things are not mutually exclusive.

Leave him where he is, jerking him around won't help anyone.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm saying they are both in need of improvement and thus both need assets. Duffey is showing signs of being a reliable pen piece. Maybe even a set up man in the near future. That is valuable. Leave him on his current path. Leave success alone and mess around somewhere else.

But, we have other potential assets in the pen -- namely Burdi, perhaps another like Hildenberger could prove useful too if given a chance.  Not to mention Pressly who could be ready to step back up into higher leverage (I notice he's struck out 8 of his last 9 batters faced, although he's pitched very sparingly lately) -- not that Duffey has been used in the highest leverage anyway...

 

We don't have any more potential assets in the rotation right now.  Gibson is in the rotation now, backed by Tepesch and Wilk.  Gonsalves would be 2 months away, at best.

 

Realistically, no one is making trades now either, so that's another 2 months to wait and you might not find a match there anyway.

 

This isn't like July 2015, when we had 5 roughly league average or better starters in the first half plus Ervin Santana coming back, and no pen prospects.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Is anyone calling him a "failed starter"?

I'm calling him a successful reliever.

The two things are not mutually exclusive.

Leave him where he is, jerking him around won't help anyone.

 

Thrylos specifically called him a "failed starter" in this very thread.

 

Last I heard, the front office said they still viewed Duffey as a starter.  But he had to go to the pen this spring because there was no room in the rotation.  Well, now there's room in the rotation!

 

And Duffey has been a starter virtually his entire pro career.  He's spent just the last month and a half in a long relief role.  Moving him back into the rotation at this point is hardly "jerking him around" it's actually pretty common for young pitchers (Liriano 2006 comes to mind).

[Steve Lein]

I said it throughout his entire development with the Twins, even when he was doing really well as a starter in the minors and then the majors:

 

Duffey's place was always going to be the bullpen.

 

Leave him there.

 

He's going to need a trip to AAA to get stretched out even if they wanted too. Who's to say that won't go off the rails before he's even ready to start? Don't mess with a good thing. Trevor May should have taught that lesson.

[Otto von Ballpark]

One could argue that, given their 2017 performances to date, letting Gibson/Hughes/Tepesch or whomever pass up Duffey on our current starting depth chart right now would be "jerking him around" more than a simple shift from long relief back to starting would do.  Assuming their public statements about seeing him and believing in him as a starter long-term are still true.

[Thrylos]

 

He was our best starter in 2015

 

He struggled in 2016

 

I'm not personally ready to define him as a failed starter. 

 

Interestingly enough, the best starter (in 32 GS 194-2/3 IP not Duffey's 10 games 58-1/3 IP SSS half of it after the rosters expanded) was Kyle Gibson who struggled in 2017.

 

Is he a failed starter?

[Doomtints]

 

Thrylos specifically called him a "failed starter" in this very thread.

 

Last I heard, the front office said they still viewed Duffey as a starter.  But he had to go to the pen this spring because there was no room in the rotation.  Well, now there's room in the rotation!

 

And Duffey has been a starter virtually his entire pro career.  He's spent just the last month and a half in a long relief role.  Moving him back into the rotation at this point is hardly "jerking him around" it's actually pretty common for young pitchers (Liriano 2006 comes to mind).

Liriano was 22 in 2006 and blew out his arm in the same year and was never the same again.  You are literally using a player as an example who the Twins destroyed in his rookie year.  No one was expecting Liriano to become a 99 ERA+ player for his career. What a tragedy, from ace to #5 in 16 starts.

Duffey is 26 and doesn't have the same velocity or repertoire that Liriano had, regardless, nor does he have the same potential.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He's going to need a trip to AAA to get stretched out even if they wanted too. Who's to say that won't go off the rails before he's even ready to start? Don't mess with a good thing. Trevor May should have taught that lesson.

Nope, not when we're carrying 7-8 relievers including 2 other long relievers.  Stretching him to 3-4 innings in that laugher last night would have probably been perfect preparation to take Gibson's next turn and look to complete 5.  (But no, we had to turn it over to his fellow high leverage bullpen mates Breslow and Haley...) 

 

Just because your 6th starter does well in the first 1-2 months of the season in a long relief role doesn't mean he should be completely removed from the SP depth chart.  In fact, if he's used the experience to further develop as a complete pitcher and not just cut loose with a different approach in short stints, he should probably get a promotion on that SP depth chart.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Liriano was 22 in 2006 and blew out his arm in the same year and was never the same again.  You are literally using a player as an example who the Twins destroyed in his rookie year.  No one was expecting Liriano to become a 99 ERA+ player for his career. What a tragedy, from ace to #5 in 16 starts.

Duffey is 26 and doesn't have the same velocity or repertoire that Liriano had, regardless, nor does he have the same potential.

I'm not comparing Duffey and Liriano as pitchers or potential injury cases.  It's just a simple fact that young starters frequently do a month or two in a long relief role for a variety or reasons and come back to starting.  It's not jerking them around, it's common practice.

 

The Twins got excellent value out of Brian Duensing by "jerking him around" in 2009-2010.  The Cardinals with Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn a few years ago, etc.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Interestingly enough, the best starter (in 32 GS 194-2/3 IP not Duffey's 10 games 58-1/3 IP SSS half of it after the rosters expanded) was Kyle Gibson who struggled in 2017.

 

Is he a failed starter?

Not necessarily, but Gibson is currently struggling, so he could probably use time away from the MLB rotation to work on things.  Just like Duffey has had since last season.

 

Gibson could still be #6 on the depth chart and get another chance soon enough, like Duffey should be in line to do now.

[70charger]

 

 You are literally using a player as an example who the Twins destroyed in his rookie year.  

 

I reject your premise.

 

While it's possible to destroy a pitcher from, say, overuse, it's far more common for pitchers to simply have injuries because flinging a tiny object with pinpoint precision at near 100 MPH hundreds and thousands of times is, well, hard.

[Steve Lein]

 

Nope, not when we're carrying 7-8 relievers including 2 other long relievers.  Stretching him to 3-4 innings in that laugher last night would have probably been perfect preparation to take Gibson's next turn and look to complete 5.  (But no, we had to turn it over to his fellow high leverage bullpen mates Breslow and Haley...) 

 

Just because your 6th starter does well in the first 1-2 months of the season in a long relief role doesn't mean he should be completely removed from the SP depth chart.  In fact, if he's used the experience to further develop as a complete pitcher and not just cut loose with a different approach in short stints, he should probably get a promotion on that SP depth chart.

 

Except he's not in a long-relief role I don't think (I do think you have a decent point they could have pitched him longer as a means of stretching him out, but he also only threw 19 pitches).

 

He's been a fireman middle-reliever.

 

Earliest Duffey has come in is the 5th. He's done that 3 times (he went 3 innings in one of those outings, 0.1 and 1.0 in the others). Hes come on in the 6th 6 times, and 7th 6 times. That's not a long reliever.