Time for Duffey at SP?

[drjim]

Seems they're happy with Duffey as a reliever and aren't going to move him.

 

Gibson is a placeholder for lack of a better option.

[jorgenswest]

Stretching out a pitcher seems to be a big challenge concern for Molitor and Allen. They never figured out how to do it with Trevor May though there were numerous times a starter was needed.

 

The Royals managed to stretch out Danny Duffy last year. His fist start was three innings. He made it into the 5th inning in his second start and into the 6th inning in his third start. It can be done.

 

Duffey's ERA was awful last year and if you trust ERA it would be hard to imagine he would be successful. On the other hand, he had an unsustainably high HR/FB rate combined with a significant drop in DP rate. Did bad luck and awful defense lead to that huge difference between his ERA and xFIP? Many believe that xFIP or SIERA are much more reliable predictors of future ERA. If that's the case, Duffey had the best xFIP and ERA among 2016 Twins starters with both measures better than league average. How much of his success in relief this year is simply the result of better luck and better defense? When will the Twins become so desperate for starting pitching that they will give him a shot?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also worth noting not much has changed in the MLB bullpen picture since spring training. Chargois got hurt, but he was pretty bad in spring training anyway. Hard to see how circumstances could have changed enough to make Duffey indispensable in the pen, but not even an option to aid a clearly weak rotation spot .

[Otto von Ballpark]

Another thing, if we have another doubleheader, a starter gets nicked up, or we need an emergency extra innings appearance, etc., we will be dipping into the Tepesch/Wheeler well.

 

I'd rather be giving Duffey the rotation chance he has earned now, and hold Gibson in reserve as a 6th starter option.

[John Kelsey]

 

Another thing, if we have another doubleheader, a starter gets nicked up, or we need an emergency extra innings appearance, etc., we will be dipping into the Tepesch/Wheeler well.

I'd rather be giving Duffey the rotation chance he has earned now, and hold Gibson in reserve as a 6th starter option.

 

Why has Duffey earned a rotation spot? He's had plenty of chances over the years to hold a rotation spot and he's proven ineffective. 

 

What he has earned is more high leverage situations in the bullpen. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Stretching out a pitcher seems to be a big challenge concern for Molitor and Allen. They never figured out how to do it with Trevor May though there were numerous times a starter was needed.

The Royals managed to stretch out Danny Duffy last year. His fist start was three innings. He made it into the 5th inning in his second start and into the 6th inning in his third start. It can be done.

Duffey's ERA was awful last year and if you trust ERA it would be hard to imagine he would be successful. On the other hand, he had an unsustainably high HR/FB rate combined with a significant drop in DP rate. Did bad luck and awful defense lead to that huge difference between his ERA and xFIP? Many believe that xFIP or SIERA are much more reliable predictors of future ERA. If that's the case, Duffey had the best xFIP and ERA among 2016 Twins starters with both measures better than league average. How much of his success in relief this year is simply the result of better luck and better defense? When will the Twins become so desperate for starting pitching that they will give him a shot?

 

I agree.

 

Molitor just needs to watch the game today. The Astros are in the process of stretching out Brad Peacock.

 

Fiers was performing like Gibson and the Astros are trying to do something about it. 

 

Brad Peacock would be defined as a failed starter. 13 and 14 were pretty rough years. Hurt in 15 and an average AAA starter in 2016. Makes the club as a reliever in 2017... He does well and now he's being stretched out... out of necessity.

 

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why has Duffey earned a rotation spot? He's had plenty of chances over the years to hold a rotation spot and he's proven ineffective.

 

What he has earned is more high leverage situations in the bullpen.

He was pretty good as a starter this spring and was the last cut from the rotation, when they said they still saw him as a starter going forward, and he has performed well since then including some improvements that could easily transfer back to starting (i.e. pitching from the edge of the rubber).

 

He hasn't really failed in "plenty of chances" previously.

Only 2016, when he pretty much never got a break (pen or minors) after he began struggling at the MLB level -- hard to interpret that as multiple chances.

[USAFChief]

Count me as quite happy to see Duffey left in the pen, where he belongs.

[ahart10]

Does anyone know if Duffey wants to start? He was a reliever in college. Maybe he's just more confident/comfortable in the pen. If he wants to start I'm all for it. But don't screw up a good thing by forcing him into the rotation.

[Vanimal46]

 

Count me as quite happy to see Duffey left in the pen, where he belongs.

 

Concur. Let's learn a lesson from Trevor May and give Duffey a clear role. The last thing this team needs is trying to stretch out Duffey and he blows out his elbow as well. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Interesting that we hear so much about "trusting the process" but the process gets thrown out the window when discussing not only Duffey (who was considered one of our top 5-6 starters just 2 months ago), but also Gibson, whose current performance level was deemed harmful to the club earlier this month, but now it's apparently totally OK just because Hughes went on the DL.

By any rational interpretation of "trusting the process", Gibson should still be working in AAA to earn a trip back to Minnesota, while Duffey would have already earned his second chance in the MLB rotation.

 

I'm not sure if Duffey was ever considered the organization's top 5-6 starters 2 months ago. He was certainly the odd man out in the rotation without May's unfortunate injury. IMO trusting the process is leaving Duffey in the role they wanted him to be in all along.... Leading the bullpen. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not sure if Duffey was ever considered the organization's top 5-6 starters 2 months ago. He was certainly the odd man out in the rotation without May's unfortunate injury. IMO trusting the process is leaving Duffey in the role they wanted him to be in all along.... Leading the bullpen. 

All I know is Duffey was starting all spring, and did fairly well, and he was the last cut from the rotation at the end of spring training, and at that time the team said they still considered him a starter going forward despite the bullpen assignment.

 

If their plan all along was to have him "leading the bullpen" they've had a funny way of showing it (Molitor's usage of him).

[jimbo92107]

 

Stretching out a pitcher seems to be a big challenge concern for Molitor and Allen. They never figured out how to do it with Trevor May though there were numerous times a starter was needed.

The Royals managed to stretch out Danny Duffy last year. His fist start was three innings. He made it into the 5th inning in his second start and into the 6th inning in his third start. It can be done.

Duffey's ERA was awful last year and if you trust ERA it would be hard to imagine he would be successful. On the other hand, he had an unsustainably high HR/FB rate combined with a significant drop in DP rate. Did bad luck and awful defense lead to that huge difference between his ERA and xFIP? Many believe that xFIP or SIERA are much more reliable predictors of future ERA. If that's the case, Duffey had the best xFIP and ERA among 2016 Twins starters with both measures better than league average. How much of his success in relief this year is simply the result of better luck and better defense? When will the Twins become so desperate for starting pitching that they will give him a shot?

And of course there's this:

 

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article153251454.html

 

Danny Duffy is out 4 to 6 weeks with an oblique strain, but from fielding, not pitching. He pulled it on a clumsy play covering 1st base. Bad luck can happen to anybody. 

 

Tuesday's debacle against Houston exposed the weaknesses in the Twins bullpen, especially Breslow and Belisle. If you simply DFA both those guys, it's hard to imagine there are no better options than that in AA and AAA. Melotakis surely could do better than Breslow. Any of the better AAA relievers will have better stuff than Belisle. Can't say I'm impressed anymore with Haley, either. We should see at least a few new names on the roster pretty soon. 

 

In the middle of this probably coming musical chairs with pitchers, I'm afraid it's unlikely the Twins will move the closest thing they've got to a really dominant reliever. Duffey won't come out of the pen until they have a few more guys in there that aren't a a complete disaster.

[SwainZag]

 

All I know is Duffey was starting all spring, and did fairly well, and he was the last cut from the rotation at the end of spring training, and at that time the team said they still considered him a starter going forward despite the bullpen assignment.

 

If their plan all along was to have him "leading the bullpen" they've had a funny way of showing it (Molitor's usage of him).

 

Duffey appeared in 5 spring training games and had 2 Spring Training starts, he threw 3 innings and 5 innings.  How is that starting all spring?

 

I will say it again, until Duffey can add an at least average 3rd pitch, he should be in the pen where he is excelling in a position of need for the Twins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Duffey appeared in 5 spring training games and had 2 Spring Training starts, he threw 3 innings and 5 innings.  How is that starting all spring?

Starters often split spring training games, meaning the "games started" stat isn't particularly meaningful. Also Duffey had at least one minor league start during spring training to get extra work in, and others did so too.  Basically, he was a starter all of spring training -- there was no talk of converting him to relief.

[ashbury]

Tuesday's debacle against Houston

Hey, spoiler warnings, please! Some of us haven't seen today's game yet.

[jimbo92107]

 

Hey, spoiler warnings, please! Some of us haven't seen today's game yet.

Sorry, I've got a new cable package with tomorrow's shows today! 

[ashbury]

Sorry, I've got a new cable package with tomorrow's shows today! 

Still, based on your spoiler I went ahead and skipped the game, and I'm glad I did. So there's that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Sorry, I've got a new cable package with tomorrow's shows today! 

 

Wow, can you watch all the games and give us the upsets on the betting lines?

[bighat]

The Twins are so desperate for starting pitching right now that I can see why this is a hot topic.  Duffey's been great in the pen and has starting experience. Don't forget that Duff Man sported an ERA of 6+ last year in that role.

 

I vote to leave him where he is. Hopefully this team can start winning some games!