Ervin Santana, concerned?

[drivlikejehu]

Santana doesn't possess a magical ability whereby he can strand 91.5% of baserunners and allow a BABIP of .136. He's on a great run going back to last season, but he is going to regress, and it may be a rather dramatic regression, at that.

[twinsnorth49]

I'm even less concerned now, than when I was unconcerned the other day.

[USAFChief]

Santana doesn't possess a magical ability whereby he can strand 91.5% of baserunners and allow a BABIP of .136. He's on a great run going back to last season, but he is going to regress, and it may be a rather dramatic regression, at that.

He's actually on a prett good run going back to 2013.

 

2013: 211IP 3.24 ERA

2014: 196IP 3.95 ERA

2015: 108IP 4.00 ERA

2016: 181IP 3.38 ERA

 

He's not going to continue to strand runners at 90 percent, or give up less than 5 hits per nine, but he doesn't have to, to be an "ace".

Let him finish the rest of 2017 at an ERA something close to his average since 2013...how many better starters are there over the last five years?

[gunnarthor]

 

Santana doesn't possess a magical ability whereby he can strand 91.5% of baserunners and allow a BABIP of .136. He's on a great run going back to last season, but he is going to regress, and it may be a rather dramatic regression, at that.

This is true but it's also not really relevant. The fact that he's stranded 90% of baserunners in 10 starts this year doesn't mean he's going to let 50% of them score in his next 10 starts to even it out. We've said for about a month now that he can't maintain these numbers, yet he did for a month. He's been amazing for the 10 starts (not counting his hot streak to end last year). His next 10 probably won't be as good (it would be very hard to do that) but it doesn't mean he has to be equally bad in his next 10 to even out or such. I think it's fair to say he's having a career year. He'd need to avg about 5.5ip/start for the remained of the year at a 4.50 era to equal last years numbers. Maybe that's what happens but I'd bet he's better than that.

[jimbo92107]

The word, "concerned" actually seems unexpectedly significant. Tonight's game in Baltimore featured Santana pitching in a light rain for nine innings. During that time, the only sign of concern on Santana's face appeared to be a bit of irritation at the rain, and one goofy moment when he stared down a base runner on 2nd, then proceeded to throw a wild pitch. Runner went to third base, then Santana gathered himself and finished getting the side out. 

 

A complete lack of concern seemed to be the main emotion on Santana's face, bordering dangerously close to disinterest. It was like watching a guy idly working on his technique of skimming stones on a calm day at a still pond, all by himself. It was as if there was nobody there but Santana and his buddy, the catcher. Throw a curve? Sure, buddy. How about a two-seamer in on the hands? Done. Dangle a curve outside the zone? Consider it done, friend.

 

Santana worked the whole game like that. Completely relaxed, essentially unconcerned. Imagine how good other pitchers could be if they could emulate Santana's frame of mind. I hope he stays like that a while longer. As a Twins fan, it's very relaxing. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

Sir, could I interest you in a slightly used Ricky Nolasco?

    Just the right amount of snark!

[HitInAPinch]

Ervin Santana is the very pitcher that the Twins have needed:  a veteran pitcher with the veteran demeanor to lead a starting staff that is FINALLY getting younger and better.

[yarnivek1972]

The only reason I was concerned was the 15 walks in his last 4 starts. That was something to keep an eye on. 2 last night. That's more like it.

[ashbury]

Ervin Santana is the very pitcher that the Twins have needed:  a veteran pitcher with the veteran demeanor to lead a starting staff that is FINALLY getting younger and better.

Quick! Trade him.

[FlauerPauer]

If he pitches half as decent as last night, he's going to be starting for the AL all-star team.

 

I think the walks are a problem, no doubt; however, if he's limiting the hits then I'm ok with walking some. Five a game is way to many, but two or three wouldn't be detrimental as long as the hits are limited.

 

 

[yarnivek1972]

If he pitches half as decent as last night, he's going to be starting for the AL all-star team.

 

I think the walks are a problem, no doubt; however, if he's limiting the hits then I'm ok with walking some. Five a game is way to many, but two or three wouldn't be detrimental as long as the hits are limited.

His career avg is a tad under 3 per 9. That is why a 4 game stretch with 15 in 26 IP caught my attention.

[Loosey]

My concern level is 0.000000000000.  I can't think of a team in baseball that wouldn't improve if he were added to their rotation.  Is he historically a #1 in his career?  Probably not.  But over the last year + he has been pitching as a #1 and that is great news for the Twins.  

[Jham]

He was hitting 95 last night...  Does he normally throw that hard?

[gunnarthor]

He seems to be on a pretty good role - his last 18 starts in 2016 were pretty impressive - 116ip, 2.41 era, 100k, 32bb. 

[Mike Sixel]

Excited for last night. It certainly was good. He has somehow been under rated here, as I have typed many times. Still not sure why, frankly.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Excited for last night. It certainly was good. He has somehow been under rated here, as I have typed many times. Still not sure why, frankly.

Career stat line. We've talked about why it's not really indicative of Santana's performance ceiling.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Quick! Trade him.

Surely you jest.....

[ashbury]

Surely you jest.....

But think of all the prospects he would bring in return, ready in 2022 or so...

 

_{^{/ yes I jest}}

[snepp]

 

But think of all the prospects he would bring in return, ready in 2022 or so...

 

_{^{/ yes I jest}}

 

And don't call me Shirley.

[snepp]

Last 365 days...

 

 

32 starts, 210 innings, .595 OPS, 2.70 ERA

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The only reason I was concerned was the 15 walks in his last 4 starts. That was something to keep an eye on. 2 last night. That's more like it.

we saw the clunker a couple nights ago. The low strikeout rate and high walk rate will bite him in the ass again.

 

I still think he can have a good to very good season, at least be better than his career norms, when regression to the mean sets in.

 

He's had these types of stints in the past, maybe buoyed by the outfield a bit more... I'm not "concerned" and believe he could continue to have a very good 2017 but don't think it will maintain at this level.

[Loosey]

I think he has learned to pitch to his strengths over the last few years.  He has a lot of years of a experience and at age 34 his stuff hasn't seemed to weakened much since he was younger. I firmly believe this is now the real Ervin Santana.  I don't think he will keep throwing complete game shutouts, but his plan works.  If had to bet on an over/under for an ERA of 3.25 for the season I would still take the under.

[Loosey]

This was interested from ESPN Article on Santana:

 

thought it would be helpful to check some other surprising pitchers who have posted a sub-2.00 ERA on May 23 in recent years and see where they finished the season:

 

2016 -- Drew Pomeranz, Padres: 1.70. He had pitched mostly in relief and carried his hot start to an All-Star appearance. Finished at 3.32.

 

2015 -- A.J. Burnett, Pirates: 1.39. In the final season of his career, the veteran made his first All-Star team. Finished at 3.18.

 

2014 -- Jeff Samardzija, Cubs: 1.46. This was amazing, because he was 0-4 in 10 starts. Finished at 2.99.

 

2013 -- Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks: 1.44. Made the All-Star team. Finished at 3.41.

 

2012 -- Brandon Beachy, Braves: 1.77. Blew out his elbow four starts later. Finished at 2.00.

 

2011 -- Alexi Ogando, Rangers: 1.81. He'd been a reliever, moved to the rotation and made the All-Star team, and then would move back to the pen the next season. Finished at 3.51.

[jorgenswest]

By finished at...

 

Is that a season number or was that the ERA following May 23? I assume that it was full season and the ERA after was worse. In either case, it doesn't appear ERA through May 23 was a very good predictor of ERA for the remainder of the season. I wonder if xFIP or SIERA were better predictors.

[amjgt]

I was going to drop a serious 34yo Curt Schilling comp-bomb on y'all, but Curt's K/9 was way higher than I remember.

 

Carry on.

[yarnivek1972]

So, Ervin has walked 22 batters in the last 46 IP now. I'm not concerned about his ERA normalizing. I am concerned that a pitcher who through his career has walked less than 3 per 9 has walked 4.5 per 9 since the beginning of May. Santana can't get away with that high of a walk rate. Few starters can.

[drjim]

He had two really good outings prior to this.

 

I wonder if pushing him for the extra inning against Houston had some residual effect.

[snepp]

Nope, still not concerned.

[Rosterman]

Trade him to the National League with his HOT bat!

[jokin]

 

Nope, still not concerned.

 

Heh-heh.

 

My only concern is whether or not he is the All Star Game Starter.