About that farm system..

[howieramone2]

 

Any sense of how this hit rate compares to other franchises?

Bingo!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well, one of the things that bugs me is people complaining about the state of the farm system (the title of this thread) and then saying the Twins have been bad for five or six years and ignoring how those two facts don't line up.

 

That is an issue of concern, for sure. 

 

But, as pointed out, this 1:1 pick should be in the top 20 of prospects (unless they go off the board), which will help. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Trading Santana and Dozier for pie-in-the-sky means we are probably looking at 2020 or so to compete. We are in the hunt as we speak and I am enjoying every minute of it. I distinctly recall, you were one of the members screaming the loudest in 2013 and 2014 that we had to win now. Why are you finally embracing, and why would you extend the rebuild in year 6. IMHO always taking the opposite position of our favorite team, is akin to having no position.

 

I never scream "win now".  I scream build a good organization and make smart, high percentage plays.  Sometimes we do that and I praise them for it, other times we don't and I criticize them.

 

For example, I really liked the Castro signing and applauded it all offseason.  I also criticized them for not taking advantage of an opportunity to invest in the bullpen.

 

And I hardly think you should attack others for always being on one side of the issue or the other. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The Twins scouting department has been a disaster over the past decade plus.  It doesnt take more than a simple look at the draft to see how it has failed.  Keep in mind that for much of this the Twins have drafted near the top of the order.  In the first round extended, since 2008 the Twins have made 16 selections.   Five of those players have played in the majors:  Aaron Hicks, Alex Wimmers, Kyle Gibson, Jose Berrios, and Byron Buxton.

 

Moving to the 2nd round, a Twins 2nd rounder has not made a  contribution to the Twins since 2005 2nd round pick Kevin Slowey, and has not made a significant contribution since 2003 2nd round pick Scott Baker.   Only JT Chargois, 25 games pitched and Joe Benson 71 ABs have even played for the Twins as 2nd round picks since 2005.  Twelve years.

 

Want more?  Moving to the 3rd round, a Twins 3rd round draft pick has not made a contribution to the Twins since 2005 3rd round pick Brian Duensing.  Tyler Robertson and Pat Dean are the only 3rd round picks that have played for the Twins since 2005.

 

4th Round, 2010 Eddie Rosario has made MLB.  Other than Eddie, the last 4th rounder position player to play for the Twins was drafted in 1996, OF Chad Allen, and the last pitcher from the 4th roudn to play for the Twins was Jason Miller, drafted in 2000.  

 

5th Round:  Tyler Duffey is all we have to show for that round, 2005 5th round pick Steve Tolleson being the last 5th rounder to make it to MLB.

 

6th round:  The Twins have zero 6th round picks on their roster, the last 6th rounders to make the Twins were 2010 Logan Darnell and 2009 Chris Hermann, with 2002 being the last time a 6th round pick made any meaningful contribution, Pat Neshek.

 

7th Round:  The last time a Twins 7th round pick made it to the majors was 1996.

 

8th Round:  Brian Dozier.  If you go past him, the lat Twins 8th round pick to make any contribution to the Twins was 1991, Brad Radke.

 

9th round:  The last time a Twins 9th round pick made it to the majors was 1998.

 

10th Round:   The last time a Twins 10th round draft pick played for the Twins was 1989, Marty Corova.

 

The Twins have not just struck out at the top of the draft order, they have struck out all the way through the upper part of the draft. If you look at how poorly this team has done, the 2011 draft had yielded exactly nothing.  THe 2012 draft were the Twins had the #2 overall pick, three 1st and 2 2nd round picks, the Twins made the disasterous choice to try to convert college relievers into starters that has yielded just the Byron Buxton question mark and the JJ Berrios hesitation.

 

Another aspect about the Twins farm system that most of us ignore is that other than this absolutely failed development process, it serves no other value.  The Twins do not trade their prospects.  A lot fo teams, particularly the rich teams, manage their prospect system as a means of acquiring established major league players feasting on the lower end teams overvaluation of "prospects'.  A lot of their prospects are pushed quickly knowing that prospetive trade partners will look at the age of the prospect pitching in a higher level.  Look at the Mets-Twins trade of Johann Santana for an example.  If Carlos Gomez would have been a Twins prospect he would have been in AA and Deolis Guerra was pushed by the Mets into A+ ball as a 17 year old.  As a Twins prospect he would still have been in the Dominican rookie leagues.

 

Not to state the obvious, but these are pretty typical results for baseball teams.  I'm not saying that there isn't work that needs to be done, but I still think it's wise to have reasonable expectations, and if you have expectations that no team in major league baseball can hit, then I think it would be wise to re-evaluate the expectations.

[TheLeviathan]

 

If that's what you think, fine. I think you're wrong. That's fine too. But if you think moving Suzuki or Hammer for AAAA filer, which is what you'd got, when Hammer and Suzuki weren't blocking anyone, you should certainly be pushing for the Twins to move Castro to free up Garver, Santiago to free up Mejia and Dozier to bring up Gordon or Vielma.  It's not like Castro's overly good and Santiago is all luck at this point, anyway.  Dozier is one of only three legitimate trade chips we've had so moving him should be a priority during the season.

 

No, quit trying to pull that crap.  Every single person I listed there was a sell-high player during a clear rebuild.  Castro may be sell high right now, but we're not clearly rebuilding.  (Though that may change, this season is still shaky IMO)

 

But all offseason I stated moving Santana and Dozier should be a high priority.  So I have absolutely stayed consistent.

 

The truth is that if Suzuki, Willingham, and Plouffe only returned AAAA filler - FINE!!!!!  That's ok!  Sometimes those players end up contributing!  That's how we got our current closer.  Hell, Dozier was an 8th round pick....that's not even AAAA filler level value.  The point is we got nothing.  Nothing gives you no chance and getting lucky.  If even one of those AAAA filler guys had turned into a viable player we have a huge gain, right now, on this team.  And, worse yet, if you're on the side that believes this scouting department and FO know what they're doing - you should feel even more strongly that getting something is better than nothing!  

 

Look, glunn asked - who didn't we deal when we could have.  That's the list.  And for pretty much all of them we got nothing.  That's wasted opportunities at getting something that could be helping now.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not to state the obvious, but these are pretty typical results for baseball teams.  I'm not saying that there isn't work that needs to be done, but I still think it's wise to have reasonable expectations, and if you have expectations that no team in major league baseball can hit, then I think it would be wise to re-evaluate the expectations.

 

 

I'd really like to know if these are typical or not, so if you have that data, I'd love to see it.

[drjim]

 

I'd really like to know if these are typical or not, so if you have that data, I'd love to see it.

 

It's likely typical or a disaster.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's likely typical or a disaster.

 

I mean, I literally have no idea. 

[USAFChief]

mod note: This thread is starting to wander down the path of attacking others, not ideas. Wander back on track, please.

[markos]

 

I mean, I literally have no idea. 

Jeff Zimmerman in one of the HardBall Times annuals created a model to predict team-controled WAR based on overall draft pick number. I used that model to predict how much WAR the Twins should have accumulated from 2006-2011 from their picks in the first ten rounds. Based on his model, their draft picks during those years should have generated ~55 WAR, but instead have only generated ~30 WAR. That -25 WAR gap is one of the five worst both in absolute terms as well as relative to the expected value. The overall results may change a little bit over the next few years as guys like Dozier, Gibson, Hicks and Rosario finish out their team-control seasons, but I think they are pretty much assured of being well below-average at this point.

[drjim]

 

Jeff Zimmerman in one of the HardBall Times annuals created a model to predict team-controled WAR based on overall draft pick number. I used that model to predict how much WAR the Twins should have accumulated from 2006-2011 from their picks in the first ten rounds. Based on his model, their draft picks during those years should have generated ~55 WAR, but instead have only generated ~30 WAR. That -25 WAR gap is one of the five worst both in absolute terms as well as relative to the expected value. The overall results may change a little bit over the next few years as guys like Dozier, Gibson, Hicks and Rosario finish out their team-control seasons, but I think they are pretty much assured of being well below-average at this point.

 

That is a little worse than I would have thought. We all know Hicks is the next Mays, but I don't think Dozier and Rosario are going to do enough to make up that gap.

 

06-11 was the worst stretch of drafting since Mauer. I think the 12-16 stretch will go down as more average (though probably not great).

[Mike Sixel]

 

Jeff Zimmerman in one of the HardBall Times annuals created a model to predict team-controled WAR based on overall draft pick number. I used that model to predict how much WAR the Twins should have accumulated from 2006-2011 from their picks in the first ten rounds. Based on his model, their draft picks during those years should have generated ~55 WAR, but instead have only generated ~30 WAR. That -25 WAR gap is one of the five worst both in absolute terms as well as relative to the expected value. The overall results may change a little bit over the next few years as guys like Dozier, Gibson, Hicks and Rosario finish out their team-control seasons, but I think they are pretty much assured of being well below-average at this point.

 

Thanks, no way I would have the patience for that task, appreciate your effort!

[mlhouse]

 

Not to state the obvious, but these are pretty typical results for baseball teams.  I'm not saying that there isn't work that needs to be done, but I still think it's wise to have reasonable expectations, and if you have expectations that no team in major league baseball can hit, then I think it would be wise to re-evaluate the expectations.

 

 

Whether it is typical or not, the difference lies in the fact that this is how the Twins get quality players and why our team has performed so poorly for the better part of a decade.  While the MLB can be hit or miss, the Twins need to be hit.  

 

Our international scouting has done a reasonable job in getting Sano, Polanco, and Kepler, the drafted players simply have not kept up.

[mlhouse]

 

Jeff Zimmerman in one of the HardBall Times annuals created a model to predict team-controled WAR based on overall draft pick number. I used that model to predict how much WAR the Twins should have accumulated from 2006-2011 from their picks in the first ten rounds. Based on his model, their draft picks during those years should have generated ~55 WAR, but instead have only generated ~30 WAR. That -25 WAR gap is one of the five worst both in absolute terms as well as relative to the expected value. The overall results may change a little bit over the next few years as guys like Dozier, Gibson, Hicks and Rosario finish out their team-control seasons, but I think they are pretty much assured of being well below-average at this point.

 

The results speak for themselves.  Even with this backup it is clear that the Twins system has been a disaster.  In every situation with uncertainty there will be bad luck and injuries, and at least the Twins haven't had any obvious situations were they did not draft talent because of cost in  recent years, but the fact is the Twins should have already been well on the way to rebuilding and we are not.  

 

The team we have on the field right now is a patchwork of young players and guys that are in their mid-30s, and even if you want to believe in the success we are having, it is unsustainable over the long run.  And, just as we get the hitters going the pitching is going to have to be replaced and the cycle will continue.  

[caninatl04]

One rhetorical question:

 

So, who is the #2's in the scouting department at Cleveland?  And why do I think he will be named head of scouting at Minnesota during the off season?

 

And one serious (but not airline safety serious) question:

 

What is the impact of being on the DL on one's Top 100 ranking?

[howieramone2]

 

The results speak for themselves.  Even with this backup it is clear that the Twins system has been a disaster.  In every situation with uncertainty there will be bad luck and injuries, and at least the Twins haven't had any obvious situations were they did not draft talent because of cost in  recent years, but the fact is the Twins should have already been well on the way to rebuilding and we are not.

 

The team we have on the field right now is a patchwork of young players and guys that are in their mid-30s, and even if you want to believe in the success we are having, it is unsustainable over the long run.  And, just as we get the hitters going the pitching is going to have to be replaced and the cycle will continue.  

I beg to differ. We are 19-15 and in first place. We are much, much closer to the end of the rebuild than the beginning.

[whydidnt]

 

Jeff Zimmerman in one of the HardBall Times annuals created a model to predict team-controled WAR based on overall draft pick number. I used that model to predict how much WAR the Twins should have accumulated from 2006-2011 from their picks in the first ten rounds. Based on his model, their draft picks during those years should have generated ~55 WAR, but instead have only generated ~30 WAR. That -25 WAR gap is one of the five worst both in absolute terms as well as relative to the expected value. The overall results may change a little bit over the next few years as guys like Dozier, Gibson, Hicks and Rosario finish out their team-control seasons, but I think they are pretty much assured of being well below-average at this point.

Thanks for sharing this information. For me, it provides a general comparison grade on things. The Twins results are actually better than I expected, but it does confirm my assumptions regarding our draft success. Of course, as has been pointed out the success of drafted players is impacted by factors such as organizational development, injury, etc., but the results are bad in any case. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I mean, I literally have no idea. 

Last stat I saw said there was around a 50% failure rate for 1st rounders (and yes, I do realize that there will be more failures at the bottom of the 1st than the top).  Seth probably has a better idea on that, but a class that yields 3 major league players was a pretty good class.

 

I'm not saying the Twins couldn't do things differently or better (and I tend to personally think that their flaws are more on the development side than the drafting side), but nothing in this line of criticism strikes me as reasonable, and I think there were much better points made about our farm system with regards to our previous GM's tendency to hold on to players too long.  I'm not convinced Hughes or Hammer would have netted major hauls one half year in to signing a 3 year deal, but to say they couldn't have gotten a prospect is also unlikely, but we will truthfully never know the market.  The real issue is (as others pointed out) never using FA to trade off that 1 year reclamation project for a decent piece, and not selling guys like Suzuki or Perkins when there were buyers. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

What is the impact of being on the DL on one's Top 100 ranking?

 

It depends on the injury and how solid the rank was to begin with...  Pitchers undergoing TJS will certainly drop.  But when Sano underwent it, not much changed.

[whydidnt]

 

It's kind of hard to fault the Twins for preaching the "Twins Way" when it was the Twins coaching staff - Brunansky in particuar - that changed Dozier's swing and turned him into the hitter he became in 2013.

 

The Twins haven't hammered away at the "hit oppo" approach in years. Look at the players they've had in the past 6-7 years: Dozier, Plouffe, Sano, et al. They all derive most of their power from pulling the ball while Plouffe and Dozier were dead pull hitters. Sano is just so strong that no matter where he hits the ball, it has a decent chance of leaving the park.

I can see both side of this. I remember reading an interview with TR in the last 5 years that they did have a philosophy of teaching players to go the other way, then once they had that down, they would start to get into pulling the ball. His expectation was that HRs would increase as the player went through the system. For me that seems to indicate a one size fits all approach that might now always be the best. Plouffe and Dozier didn't add significant power until they made it to the bigs and decided to try to pull everything, in fact they really didn't hit well before then at all, so I don't think we can use those as examples of an overall change in philosophy as much as a perhaps a couple guys that were down to the last option to succeed. 

[DaveW]

Castro is fine for what the Twins wanted. Jury out on starting rotation. Power, Twins have more than they have had for years, what is your complaint is this area.

Well for one thing this thread is about the farm system, so I'm not sure what Castro or Sano/Dozier/Vargas have to do with anything.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Last stat I saw said there was around a 50% failure rate for 1st rounders (and yes, I do realize that there will be more failures at the bottom of the 1st than the top).  Seth probably has a better idea on that, but a class that yields 3 major league players was a pretty good class.

 

I'm not saying the Twins couldn't do things differently or better (and I tend to personally think that their flaws are more on the development side than the drafting side), but nothing in this line of criticism strikes me as reasonable, and I think there were much better points made about our farm system with regards to our previous GM's tendency to hold on to players too long.  I'm not convinced Hughes or Hammer would have netted major hauls one half year in to signing a 3 year deal, but to say they couldn't have gotten a prospect is also unlikely, but we will truthfully never know the market.  The real issue is (as others pointed out) never using FA to trade off that 1 year reclamation project for a decent piece, and not selling guys like Suzuki or Perkins when there were buyers. 

 

It appears that markos did some great work on this.

[whydidnt]

 

It depends on the injury and how solid the rank was to begin with...  Pitchers undergoing TJS will certainly drop.  But when Sano underwent it, not much changed.

I think what they thought of the prospect prior to the injury has a major bearing. A good example is the Mariners #1 from 2016, Kyle Lewis. He tore his ACL and MCL last July, but is still #30 in the BA rankings, having only played about a month of Minor League Ball, last year. Contrast that to Alex Kirilloff, who blew out his elbow this spring for the Twins and had a nice season at rooking ball for the Twins last year. He was picked just 4 slots after Lewis, and  has an injury that is much less devastating to a hitter but is not even ranked. My guess is for Kirilloff that if he had a good month at Cedar Rapids to start the year, he'd be somewhere on this list, but the injury coupled with lack of previous high ranking will hold him back. 

[bird]

 

Jeff Zimmerman in one of the HardBall Times annuals created a model to predict team-controled WAR based on overall draft pick number. I used that model to predict how much WAR the Twins should have accumulated from 2006-2011 from their picks in the first ten rounds. Based on his model, their draft picks during those years should have generated ~55 WAR, but instead have only generated ~30 WAR. That -25 WAR gap is one of the five worst both in absolute terms as well as relative to the expected value. The overall results may change a little bit over the next few years as guys like Dozier, Gibson, Hicks and Rosario finish out their team-control seasons, but I think they are pretty much assured of being well below-average at this point.

 

Fangraphs did a  community analysis on June 15, 2016 in which it looked back on the ist round of the draft from 2000-2010. One of the most interesting findings for me was that almost 90% of the selelections either were "superior", defined as averaging >2.5WAR, or they were "busts", defined as <1.5WAR. The other 10% averaged 1.5 WAR or so. I've ofte tried to articulate that there is a huge diiference between drafting in the top ten, and even the top half of the draft, and selecting in Revere, Gibson territory. This study helps to provide some sense about that:

 

Picks #1-5   12.8 cumulative WAR on average

Picks #6-10   9.5 WAR

Picks #11-15 8.7 WAR

 

and then a dropoff:

 

#16-20  4.9 WAR

#21-25  6.5 WAR

#26-30  4.5 WAR

 

Now, 48 of the 55 players picked #1-5 between 2000 and 2010 reached the major leagues. I'm guessing most of the seven failed ones were pitchers who didn't recover from injury.

 

This struck me: 16 of the 55 players picked #1-5 became >2.5 WAR 'superior" players. That's 29%

 

That dropped to 20% for #6-10 guys and 18% for #11-15 guys.

 

And then there's a drop-off, to where only about 11% of guys drafted #16-30 became superior players generating >2.5 WAR. So, that's 37 players from the first half of the draft, and 18 players from the second half of the draft.

 

One last thing: The chances of being a bust were about 65% for first half selections and ballooned to about 80% for second half guys.

 

Now, I may be wrong about thinking the Twins have been fairly average when it comes to scouting and drafting. It could be that they're worse than average. And I haven't really bothered to reconcile the above facts to an actual history of the Twin's 1st round choices for the period 2000-2010, in part because of sloth but mostly because there have been enough organizational and financial changes over that time period to render an examination of it a pretty noisy endeavor. However, I'm very confident that depictions like we so often see uttered here about how pathetically incapable our fifty-plus person scouting department is are way off the mark.

 

[howieramone2]

 

It appears that markos did some great work on this.

2006-2011 is ancient history. 

[USAFChief]

2006-2011 is ancient history.

 

Not if you're studying MLB draft picks. You get much more recent than that, the picks haven't had time to succeed or fail.

[Riverbrian]

 

Of course it is reasonable to question the scouting. But to call something a disaster probably needs more evidence and context, otherwise people will rightfully question your conclusion.

 

I tend to agree that the Hyperbole can be a bit much at times.

 

Calling something a "disaster" is probably embellishing past the point of reasonable criticism.

 

 

[howieramone2]

 

Not if you're studying MLB draft picks. You get much more recent than that, the picks haven't had time to succeed or fail.

Can't disagree with that, but the crux of the topic is about our current farm system. To consider Stewart and an injured Jay as bad picks, is totally off base, yet several have said as much. We will see both at Target Field

[mlhouse]

 

I beg to differ. We are 19-15 and in first place. We are much, much closer to the end of the rebuild than the beginning.

 

 

You seriously believe this?   

 

The entire pitching staff is composed of 30+ year olds.  The main starters are 34 and 31.  The closer is 32.  The next four relief pitchers are 37, 28 (with an 8+ ERA), 26, and 36.  We are riding a wave of Ervin Santana pitching at an ERA that is less than half of his career ERA, a closer that is performing beyond his previous stats, and then smoke and mirrors.  Everybody beyond that, including Berrios, is totally untested. 

 

Our lineup still has severe holes and major question marks.  Our catching issue has certainly not been solved and Castro has been an extremely poor hitter.  Mauer is a terrible hitting 1B and really hinders the team, but his name probably still bring fans to the stadium.  I think the infielders are hitting about as well as can be expected, really riding on Sano who at least helps the team take a step forward by himself if he can keep this production up, but at the same time the infield of Sano-Polanco-Dozier is not going to win defensive medals.

 

I think the jury is still out on Rosario who just does not get on base enough, and to a lesser extend Kepler.  And, the biggest mystery is Byron Buxton who is starting to look more and more like a flop, and doesnt seem to be getting any better in his 3rd major league season.   

 

 

[USAFChief]

Can't disagree with that, but the crux of the topic is about our current farm system. To consider Stewart and an injured Jay as bad picks, is totally off base, yet several have said as much. We will see both at Target Field

Would it also be totally off base to currently consider Stewart and Jay good picks?

 

To me, the current Twins MILB system looks pretty bereft of high end talent. The system has time to recover, for sure, but right now? If you're pointing out Kohl Stewart, struggling along at Chattanooga with awful numbers, as an example of a good pick, seems to do more to weaken your point than strengthen it.