About that farm system..

[TheLeviathan]

I really hope Jay and Stewart become contributors, but as of today they look like busts relative to their draft position.

 

I hope that changes, but that's the reality of today.

[howieramone2]

 

You seriously believe this?   

 

The entire pitching staff is composed of 30+ year olds.  The main starters are 34 and 31.  The closer is 32.  The next four relief pitchers are 37, 28 (with an 8+ ERA), 26, and 36.  We are riding a wave of Ervin Santana pitching at an ERA that is less than half of his career ERA, a closer that is performing beyond his previous stats, and then smoke and mirrors.  Everybody beyond that, including Berrios, is totally untested. 

 

Our lineup still has severe holes and major question marks.  Our catching issue has certainly not been solved and Castro has been an extremely poor hitter.  Mauer is a terrible hitting 1B and really hinders the team, but his name probably still bring fans to the stadium.  I think the infielders are hitting about as well as can be expected, really riding on Sano who at least helps the team take a step forward by himself if he can keep this production up, but at the same time the infield of Sano-Polanco-Dozier is not going to win defensive medals.

 

I think the jury is still out on Rosario who just does not get on base enough, and to a lesser extend Kepler.  And, the biggest mystery is Byron Buxton who is starting to look more and more like a flop, and doesnt seem to be getting any better in his 3rd major league season.   

Why would I say it if I don't believe it? Read my lips. We are much, much closer to the end of the rebuild than the beginning.

[howieramone2]

 

Would it also be totally off base to currently consider Stewart and Jay good picks?

To me, the current Twins MILB system looks pretty bereft of high end talent. The system has time to recover, for sure, but right now? If you're pointing out Kohl Stewart, struggling along at Chattanooga with awful numbers, as an example of a good pick, seems to do more to weaken your point than strengthen it.

We should wait till the end of the season. He was a top 100 prospect on at least one list during the off-season. Nothing has changed except he has gotten off to a bad start. What's 30 days or so for a 22 year-old. Jay throws 96-98 and I read somewhere has the best slider in the organization. Why judge or label him while he is injured? He's 22 or 23. 

 

I agree we don't have the star power we have had in the past. I like our depth. At some point in time pitching becomes a numbers game, and with our AA arms I believe the numbers are on our side over time.

[USAFChief]

We should wait till the end of the season. He was a top 100 prospect on at least one list during the off-season. Nothing has changed except he has gotten off to a bad start. What's 30 days or so for a 22 year-old. Jay throws 96-98 and I read somewhere has the best slider in the organization. Why judge or label him while he is injured? He's 22 or 23.

 

I agree we don't have the star power we have had in the past. I like our depth. At some point in time pitching becomes a numbers game, and with our AA arms I believe the numbers are on our side over time.

I hope you're right.

[bird]

Going back and looking at a 10-year history from 2001-2010, which lines up with the Fangraphs stuff so we can avoid any nonsense as we look at this stuff:

 

Again, we're keeping in mind that if you picked #1-15 during this ten years, you "busted" 65% of the time, meaning your selection, at the very best, gave you about 1.5 WAR or so. I'll use the average cumulative war associated with the picks in a given slot range for the purposes of making this rather crude comparison. And again,, if you picked in the #16-30 range during any of these 10 years, your odds of a bust jumped to around 80%. Of the 12 selections the Twns had during this span, 2 were first-half selecrtions (Mauer 1.1 and Hicks 1.14) All of the other 10 selections were from the 20th slot or later.

 

A cursory glance shows me that, of the 12 1st round picks in that span of time, 6 have a cumulative WAR that exceeds the average for their slot (Mauer. Span, Plouffe, Perkins, Garza, and Revere), and 6 have a lower average cumulative WAR ( Moses, Parmelee, Waldrop, Hicks, Gibson, and Wimmers).

 

I 'm really not sure what all this tells us, quite frankly. To me, it provides a sense that, while they make their fair share of booboos, they haven't been incompetent.

 

None of this answers the question about whether they get relatively good results from later rounds. That stuff is dicey. I mean, when all 30 teams pass on Danny Valencia 19 times, including the Twins, how do you give them credit for anything other than being lucky? (Valencia has a cumulative 5.6 WAR) Are we supposed to believe they predicted how many times all the other teams would pass on a guy that's given his teams 1.20 production? I dismiss anecdotal talk about later round selections, because no organization passes on a signable guy with no rap sheet who they think is going to give then first-round production.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 

I 'm really not sure what all this tells us, quite frankly. To me, it provides a sense that, while they make their fair share of booboos, they haven't been incompetent.

 

Sounds like a good slogan for a hat.  Someone print that bad boy up and let's get some merchandise going around here!

[FlauerPauer]

 

We should wait till the end of the season. He was a top 100 prospect on at least one list during the off-season. Nothing has changed except he has gotten off to a bad start. What's 30 days or so for a 22 year-old. Jay throws 96-98 and I read somewhere has the best slider in the organization. Why judge or label him while he is injured? He's 22 or 23. 

 

I agree we don't have the star power we have had in the past. I like our depth. At some point in time pitching becomes a numbers game, and with our AA arms I believe the numbers are on our side over time.

 

 

Without a doubt this team needs to bring in some frontline starting pitching.  I also believe we are to a point where a couple really good pitchers makes the boys contenders. One starting pitcher and two relievers.  Lineup is producing.  The Twins have been in most games and a couple blowouts result in the +/- run differential.  #Believe

[Dantes929]

Yes, the Twins lack depth  and quality in the pen but saying they are a nightmare is way beyond the pale.   I judge a pen on how it does during crunch time, not how it does when we are already down by 6 runs in a game.    How many times have we lost when leading in the 9th?   How many have we lost with a lead in the 7th.   There are probably a couple but I cannot recall any.   By contrast I am guessing we had already blown about 7 9th inning leads last year and the Nationals have already blown 4 this year.    Not saying its great or doesn't need improvement but I would say in our game our pen has done at least as well as the teams we have been playing.    I am anxious for the day we have a strong pen that will also keep us in games when we are down by a few but if it was a nightmare we would have a losing record.

[howieramone2]

 

I hope you're right.

Chief, let me give you some specfics:

 

Starters-Berrios, Duffey, Stewart, Jorge, Romero, Mejia, Jay, Gonsalves, Thorpe

Power relievers-Chargois, Burdi, Reed, Melotakis, Bard

 

As a rule of thumb, I believe 20-30% of top pitching prospects become contributors. IMO, numbers are on our side, over time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Starters-Berrios, Duffey, Stewart, Jorge, Romero, Mejia, Jay, Gonsalves, Thorpe

It's a bit of an aside but until Thorpe pitches again, I think we need to keep him off any future lists. The guy has been out forever and a day.

 

And once you trim Lewis off that list, I see Romero and a bunch of guys that don't impress me much (not including Berrios because he's already in Minnesota). It's nice depth to have but not exactly the type of thing I'm going to get excited about.

[nicksaviking]

 

Chief, let me give you some specfics:

 

Starters-Berrios, Duffey, Stewart, Jorge, Romero, Mejia, Jay, Gonsalves, Thorpe

Power relievers-Chargois, Burdi, Reed, Melotakis, Bard

 

As a rule of thumb, I believe 20-30% of top pitching prospects become contributors. IMO, numbers are on our side, over time.

 

Yeah, but aren't only one or two of those "top" pitching prospects?

[howieramone2]

 

It's a bit of an aside but until Thorpe pitches again, I think we need to keep him off any future lists. The guy has been out forever and a day.

 

And once you trim Lewis off that list, I see Romero and a bunch of guys that don't impress me much (not including Berrios because he's already in Minnesota). It's nice depth to have but not exactly the type of thing I'm going to get excited about.

It's a numbers game. The alternative is screaming for Berrios for 21 months. Also, I hope they take starting pitching with our first 3 picks in the 2017 draft. 

[USAFChief]

Chief, let me give you some specfics:

 

Starters-Berrios, Duffey, Stewart, Jorge, Romero, Mejia, Jay, Gonsalves, Thorpe

Power relievers-Chargois, Burdi, Reed, Melotakis, Bard

 

As a rule of thumb, I believe 20-30% of top pitching prospects become contributors. IMO, numbers are on our side, over time.

Deffey is in the Twins pen. Jay is a reliever. The rest range from pretty bad to pretty mediocre to pretty injured.

 

There might eventually be some bullpen help there, agreed, although we've been waiting for that for 2 years now, with no immediate end in sight.

[howieramone2]

 

Yeah, but aren't only one or two of those "top" pitching prospects?

Maybe in your world.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yeah, but aren't only one or two of those "top" pitching prospects?

 

I would say most of them are decent prospects, though Jay was moved to the pen.  It's definitely a thin group, and I'll echo what Brock said about Thorpe.  I'd like to see him pitch and I'm a bit concerned he's started in EST again. 

 

I'm hoping we pick up a few more pitching prospects in this draft at 1,35, and 37.

 

Side note on top 100 guys, but I think we have a few guys in the system who may be on those lists at the end of the year. Palacios (if he keeps this up) will be a good bet.  Araez would have been a possibility as well had he not gotten hurt (and continued where he left off last season).  Murray is a real possibility.  There were a lot of ceiling guys in the system with some question marks, and those guys are (so far) answering them.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Maybe in your world.

Actually, in pretty much everyone's world. How many of those guys have been listed in top 100 lists and are expected to be listed again after the 2017 season? I see the possibility of Romero and no one else.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would say most of them are decent prospects, though Jay was moved to the pen.  It's definitely a thin group, and I'll echo what Brock said about Thorpe.  I'd like to see him pitch and I'm a bit concerned he's started in EST again. 

 

I'm hoping we pick up a few more pitching prospects in this draft at 1,35, and 37.

 

Side note on top 100 guys, but I think we have a few guys in the system who may be on those lists at the end of the year. Palacios (if he keeps this up) will be a good bet.  Araez would have been a possibility as well had he not gotten hurt (and continued where he left off last season).  Murray is a real possibility.  There were a lot of ceiling guys in the system with some question marks, and those guys are (so far) answering them.

Yeah, there's the possibility of a few arms emerging but based on the list above, Romero is the only guy I see with real promise as a starter.

 

And I'd struggle to consider even him a "top prospect". He's an interesting arm, the kind that could break out and dominate but he's certainly not to that point yet.

[howieramone2]

 

Actually, in pretty much everyone's world. How many of those guys have been listed in top 100 lists and are expected to be listed again after the 2017 season? I see the possibility of Romero and no one else.

Most of the starters have been on a top 100 list at some point in time. You and I both know, relievers are seldom rated that high.

 

It's cool with me, if the board wants to continue lusting for that mythical ace. I learned the numbers game from Andy MacPhail when we were both in Chicago.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yeah, there's the possibility of a few arms emerging but based on the list above, Romero is the only guy I see with real promise as a starter.

 

And I'd struggle to consider even him a "top prospect". He's an interesting arm, the kind that could break out and dominate but he's certainly not to that point yet.

 

Not quite sure I agree in that Romero is the only real starter here...  I want Duffey to get another chance in the rotation (sorry Chief, gotta disagree here) and I think Gonsalves, Thorpe, and Stewart CAN be above average starters if they put things together, though right now Gonsalves is probably the only guy I have a higher degree of confidence.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not quite sure I agree in that Romero is the only real starter here...  I want Duffey to get another chance in the rotation (sorry Chief, gotta disagree here) and I think Gonsalves, Thorpe, and Stewart CAN be above average starters if they put things together, though right now Gonsalves is probably the only guy I have a higher degree of confidence.

I phrased that badly. A few of those guys could become real starters. The only guy I see with real promise is Romero, as defined by "a real chance of becoming above average for a sustained amount of time".

[TheLeviathan]

 

Actually, in pretty much everyone's world. How many of those guys have been listed in top 100 lists and are expected to be listed again after the 2017 season? I see the possibility of Romero and no one else.

 

Also, every team has "numbers" if they want to slap together a list.  Taht's not really the point.

[gunnarthor]

It was mentioned before the season that Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay and Romero were all placed in at least one top 100 list.  Thorpe has been in them before his injury as was Burdi.  Mejia made a top 100 midseason list, I believe. And, obviously, Berrios just came off his status by a few innings last year. Now the first 6 weeks have been pretty disappointing to almost everyone listed except for Berrios and Burd.

[TheLeviathan]

 

It was mentioned before the season that Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay and Romero were all placed in at least one top 100 list.  Thorpe has been in them before his injury as was Burdi.  Mejia made a top 100 midseason list, I believe. And, obviously, Berrios just came off his status by a few innings last year. Now the first 6 weeks have been pretty disappointing to almost everyone listed except for Berrios and Burd.

 

Right, but we have to measure it by where we stand today right?  Yes, the setbacks have been aplenty it feels like, but don't all the other teams get judged by the same standards?

 

I'm sure other teams have had setbacks and graduations too, when we start to nitpick too hard on the rankings based on specific things with the prospects we know well - we lose the forest for the trees.  

[Guest]

Chief, let me give you some specfics:

 

Starters-Berrios, Duffey, Stewart, Jorge, Romero, Mejia, Jay, Gonsalves, Thorpe

Power relievers-Chargois, Burdi, Reed, Melotakis, Bard

 

As a rule of thumb, I believe 20-30% of top pitching prospects become contributors. IMO, numbers are on our side, over time.

Good list, but I'd consider Thorpe a long shot and Stewart a non-shot until shown otherwise, and I'm not too excited about 26 year-old relievers (Melotakis and Bard) who are not dominating in their second year of AA. In fact, I'd consider Rosario more likely to contribute. Berrios and Romero could be above average starters and Jay and Burdi could be above average relievers. Barring injury, the others all seem to have a reasonable path to becoming contributors, especially if command doesn't desert them. Even if their ceiling is Kevin Slowey, that's a lot for one system.

[yarnivek1972]

 

Good list, but I'd consider Thorpe a long shot and Stewart a non-shot until shown otherwise, and I'm not too excited about 26 year-old relievers (Melotakis and Bard) who are not dominating in their second year of AA. In fact, I'd consider Rosario more likely to contribute. Berrios and Romero could be above average starters and Jay and Burdi could be above average relievers. Barring injury, the others all seem to have a reasonable path to becoming contributors, especially if command doesn't desert them. Even if their ceiling is Kevin Slowey, that's a lot for one system.

 

 

Don't know how you can look at the numbers and say that Melotakis and Bard aren't dominating AA.  Melotakis has an opponent's avg of .135 and while his strikeout pitch has been inconsistent at times, he does have strikeout ability.  He's struck out 3 in 1 IP twice this year.  

 

Bard has been a little homer happy, which explains a relatively high 3.86 ERA.  But a .225 opp BA and and a K per 9 of almost 15.  Bard has been a ground ball type, but he also hasn't shown this K rate before.  Could be something about his delivery has changed.  Regardless, it's still pretty dominant.  Maybe not Burdi dominant, but still real, real good.

 

The reason they are old for their levels is because they both missed a full season.  Doesn't mean they still can't someday help at the MLB level.

[Guest]

Don't know how you can look at the numbers and say that Melotakis and Bard aren't dominating AA.  Melotakis has an opponent's avg of .135 and while his strikeout pitch has been inconsistent at times, he does have strikeout ability.  He's struck out 3 in 1 IP twice this year.  

 

Bard has been a little homer happy, which explains a relatively high 3.86 ERA.  But a .225 opp BA and and a K per 9 of almost 15.  Bard has been a ground ball type, but he also hasn't shown this K rate before.  Could be something about his delivery has changed.  Regardless, it's still pretty dominant.  Maybe not Burdi dominant, but still real, real good.

 

The reason they are old for their levels is because they both missed a full season.  Doesn't mean they still can't someday help at the MLB level.

These positive statistics you are citing are worse than Tonkin produced in his first year in AA, at age 23. These guys are in their second years,, at age 26. Regardless of whether injury delayed their careers, the issue is whether they project to be contributors. For the reasons stated above, I'd say it's unlikely unless they really turn it on soon, which in Melotakis' case means ramping up the K's and not giving up winning runs on wild pitches and in Bard's case means at least not giving up multiple homers to AA hitters.

[yarnivek1972]

 

These positive statistics you are citing are worse than Tonkin produced in his first year in AA, at age 23. These guys are in their second years,, at age 26. Regardless of whether injury delayed their careers, the issue is whether they project to be contributors. For the reasons stated above, I'd say it's unlikely unless they really turn it on soon, which in Melotakis' case means ramping up the K's and not giving up winning runs on wild pitches and in Bard's case means at least not giving up multiple homers to AA hitters.

 

Because comparing the age a high school draftee makes it to AA with college draftees is a fair comparison?

 

JT Chargois didn't even pitch at AA until he was 25.  He was in the majors the next year.

 

Bard and Melotakis can't control where they pitch.  All they can control is getting hitters out.

[bird]

SIckles is a guy that I think helps us look at the talent and compare it to the other teams because he puts a letter grade on each team's top prospects. The following will likely change a lot now that we're well underway with the full season leagues, but it still has some value. I looked strictly at the pitching grades for the Twins and the other Central Division teams with the objective of seeing if it gave us any sense about relative quality and quantity/ Again, pitching prospects only:

 

1) Chicago has a slight quality edge, in that they have two prospects who get the borderline A-/B+ grade. No other team has a pitching prospect that earned higher than a B+

 

2) The Twins had two B+ guys, Gonsalves and Romero. That compares to CWS having the two mentioned already and two others as well. CLE had two. KC and DET one each.

 

3) The Twin's lone B was Jay. CWS had three. CLE had one. KC one, DET none.

 

4. Mejia, Shaggy, Burdi, Stewart, and Ynoa earned B- grades. CLE had two CWS had one, as did KC, and DET also had four.

 

5. If we were looking more carefully at depth and wanted to think about the C+ and even C prospects, the Twins and CLE have greater depth. For example, Thorpe, Jorge, Hildenberger, Rosario, and Wells are C+. Melo, Reed, Baxendale, Benninghoff, and many others are C graded. In fact, MIN and CLE have roughly 20 guys graded at least C. This compares to poor KC, which has 9, and CWS with 12, but of high quality for the most part. DET made a concerted effort last year to replenish arms and has about 15 names with C grades or better now.

 

6. As for quality, meaning B- guys and better, MIN has 8, CWS has 8, CLE has 5, DET 5, and KC 3.

 

Again, these grades are very fluid, and one full minor league season, one off-season, and one draft shakes it all up. But the one conclusion I think I can draw from it is that KC is lagging pretty badly, DET is playing catch-up, and CLE, CWS, and MIN are pretty much either equally fine or equally disastrous, depending upon which team's scouting and development you like to complain about.

[yarnivek1972]

Of course KC sacrificed some minor leaguers to go all in a couple years ago. Can't really fault that.

[gunnarthor]

 

Right, but we have to measure it by where we stand today right?  Yes, the setbacks have been aplenty it feels like, but don't all the other teams get judged by the same standards?

 

I'm sure other teams have had setbacks and graduations too, when we start to nitpick too hard on the rankings based on specific things with the prospects we know well - we lose the forest for the trees.  

Oh, yeah, totally. And when the prospect guys come out with their mid-season top 100s etc, we'll see a lot. I don't know how other systems are doing. I do know that some major pitchers are scuffling and others are hurt. Most teams have to deal with injuries and set backs. I have no idea how the Twins compare to to others on that right now. It does seem like Stewart and Jay will trend down, Burdi and Romero might go up, Gonsalves, Thorpe etc might depend on how their injuries progress. But the Twins system did have some depth if not a bunch of 1/2 upside pitchers. So, we'll see but I suspect our system isn't quite as barren as some are worried about.