About that farm system..

[whydidnt]

BA just released their updated top 100 prospect list. The Twins landed just 1 player, Nick Gordon, way down at 47. I know that there are lots of prospect lists and that being a top 100 prospect isn't everything. However, the Twins have been picking near the top of the draft for 4 of the last 5 years. How could we have possibly missed this many times in a row? I'm not just talking about 1st round picks, but also on those sandwich picks and 2nd and 3rd rounders - they were also taken early in the draft.
 

I want to be excited about this year's start and the future of the team, but for a team that's supposed to be built around home grown talent, the minor league system is pretty bare right now. It's great that we have some exciting young players at the ML level already, but for the most part these guys weren't recent picks and our pitching staff is one of the oldest in the league. The bullpen is nothing short of a nightmare at this point. Where are all those young fireballers that have been drafted these last 5 years?

 

It's pretty concerning that the scouting staff still remains mostly in-tact, despite the change at the top of the organization. What confidence do any of you have that somehow this year is going to be different, and why? If you think the Twins are going to compete for the division in the next couple of years, where is the infusion of talent to make that happen going to come from? It sure doesn't seem like from the current minor league rosters. 

[Mike Sixel]

You are going to get all kinds of "but, they are young in the majors", ignoring the point of your post completely. Only Buxton (and now Berrios), of the young players, was brought in in the last 4-5 years.....(probably Duffey also). Jay and Stewart certainly don't look worthy of their picks, and Gonsalves is hurt (along with last year's top pick). None of their international signings are in the top 100 from the last 5 years either, despite having one of the bigger pools.

 

First, there is a new GM. Second, I think the head of scouting got "promoted". Other than that, it is mostly the same scouts and coaches....

 

I'm in full wait and see mode, because nothing much has changed, and there is virtually no data to work from since all they've done is Castro and OLD guys and castoffs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Lots of relievers that failed to become starters. And then there are the apparent draft mistakes like Kohl Stewart.

 

This farm system is far from barren of talent, though. It simply lacks high-end talent (though with the way Gordon is playing right now, he could easily land in the top 30 or 40 after this season). There's a lot of talent in the system, it's merely lacking the impact players we saw from 2013-2016 (and for good reason, most of those guys are now playing in Minnesota).

 

I tend to take early- and mid-season prospect rankings with a grain of salt.

[drjim]

Lots of relievers that failed to become starters. And then there are the apparent draft mistakes like Kohl Stewart.

 

This farm system is far from barren of talent, though. It simply lacks high-end talent (though with the way Gordon is playing right now, he could easily land in the top 30 or 40 after this season). There's a lot of talent in the system, it's merely lacking the impact players we saw from 2013-2016 (and for good reason, most of those guys are now playing in Minnesota).

 

I tend to take early- and mid-season prospect rankings with a grain of salt.

Grain of salt is fine, but there is only one impact guy right now

 

Other than that there is some depth that should contribute as backend starters/relievers/role players, but they really need some lower level guys to take a step.

 

The first pick will be top 20, Gordon will probably end up in the 30s, and I could see Javier sneaking in the back of some lists by season's end, but that's about it.

[goulik]

I expect that by seasons end, there will be more names on that top 100 from the Twins. What has killed them were the Jay and Stewart draft picks and injuries. Burdi was once on the list and looks like the old Burdi again, Wade I believe is the real deal, Gonsalves was on preseason lists, and there are some guys at A- that could rise to the list by seasons end (Palacios, Diaz, Rortverdt). I am not going to get overly excited by the lack of names but if we picked better than Jay and Stewart we would not have this discussion going today...

[Brock Beauchamp]

We shouldn't ignore Romero either. He's not posting gaudy numbers right now but he's at a new level - perhaps the biggest jump in hitting talent outside of the transition to MLB - and holding his own.

He's the type of guy who could easily adjust and dominate the second half of the season.

[drivlikejehu]

The system is fairly weak in prospect terms but top 100 lists don't do much for me. Past the top 25 or so the talent differential shrinks, so while lacking top prospects is bad, having #80, 85, 90, etc. wouldn't make up for it or really mean anything.

[bird]

In the few years there where the Twins were claiming as many as 6 or 7 spots, it was because of high-impact prospects, right? Some of those guys fell off. Meyer, Burdi, Thorpe, and Stewart come to mind. Some graduated: Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Polanco, and Kepler. They, along with a few payers who weren't good enough to make anyone's Top 100 now form the core of a team on the rise. Guys like Rosario and May fit in this category.

 

Just because Gordon is the only player currently regarded as a Top 100 prospect is not enough to conclude something as dramatic as that the system is barren. Because it's far from barren. There are a good number of nice prospects that probably just missed the list, like Gonsalves and Diaz. The talent pool, especially in the upper minors,  is pretty average right now, but it's not lamentable, and I'd wager a lot of cash that by next year the experts again regard it as an above-average system as opposed to an average one, with perhaps guys like Javier, Kiriloff, Romero, Wade, and a pick or two from this year's draft making the organization one of the more enviable ones in the game because both the parent and the affiliates have above average talent.

 

The scouting personnel is capable in this organization.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If you think the Twins are going to compete for the division in the next couple of years, where is the infusion of talent to make that happen going to come from? It sure doesn't seem like from the current minor league rosters. 

The Twins don't need an infusion of talent. They need to begin hole-filling. That can be done via trade or free agency.

 

You're conflating top 100 prospect lists with organizational strength. There are loads of prospects who help their MLB teams without touching a top prospect list. The Twins have lots of those guys, they just don't have the Byron Buxtons in the farm system anymore.

 

There's a reason why most farm system rankings have the Twins in the 15-20 range (ie. squarely in the middle of all MLB teams, if not a touch below). They have talent, it's simply not top 100 talent. If you want to see a truly barren farm system, look at the Angels or Tigers. They don't have talent of any kind. The Twins aren't in that category, not even close to it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I expect that by seasons end, there will be more names on that top 100 from the Twins. What has killed them were the Jay and Stewart draft picks and injuries. Burdi was once on the list and looks like the old Burdi again, Wade I believe is the real deal, Gonsalves was on preseason lists, and there are some guys at A- that could rise to the list by seasons end (Palacios, Diaz, Rortverdt). I am not going to get overly excited by the lack of names but if we picked better than Jay and Stewart we would not have this discussion going today...

 

....Diaz is a 1b/DH in low A, he's not cracking the top 100 lists. Was Burdi on top 100 lists?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Hard to see Rortverdt rising since he's missing the whole year....Diaz is a 1b/DH in low A, he's not cracking the top 100 lists. Was Burdi on top 100 lists?

He cracked one list a year or two back. Barely scraped in, if I remember correctly.

 

It's damned near impossible for a reliever to make those lists, though.

[Mike Sixel]

 

He cracked one list a year or two back. Barely scraped in, if I remember correctly.

 

It's damned near impossible for a reliever to make those lists, though.

 

And I deleted the Rortverdt part, since I "read" Kiriloff! It's hard to get 5K posts in 2 weeks....

[drjim]

I expect that by seasons end, there will be more names on that top 100 from the Twins. What has killed them were the Jay and Stewart draft picks and injuries. Burdi was once on the list and looks like the old Burdi again, Wade I believe is the real deal, Gonsalves was on preseason lists, and there are some guys at A- that could rise to the list by seasons end (Palacios, Diaz, Rortverdt). I am not going to get overly excited by the lack of names but if we picked better than Jay and Stewart we would not have this discussion going today...

These guys are good to have, but none are cracking a top 100 list.

 

The Jay pick killed them, the Stewart pick was a product of a very mediocre draft.

[Mike Sixel]

The farm system is fine, and the majors are a tweak away....and people felt Ryan should be fired? Help me out here....

[drjim]

The farm system is fine, and the majors are a tweak away....and people felt Ryan should be fired? Help me out here....

Exaggerating the points of others generally don't lead to.good discussions.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The farm system is fine, and the majors are a tweak away....and people felt Ryan should be fired? Help me out here....

Saying the farm system is fine is not the same as saying it shouldn't be better than it is.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Exaggerating the points of others generally don't lead to.good discussions.

 

Which part am I exaggerating? I'm reading, as expected, that the farm system is fine. On other threads, I'm reading they need 1-2 RPs (from the minors) and 1 more SP to be legit this year. 

[drjim]

Or saying the pitching is just a tweak away. That's absurd.

[whydidnt]

Ok, for those of you that turned "bare" into "barren" there is a difference. Bare means minimal or barely sufficient, barren means completely gone or devoid of talent. I'll give you that the Angels are Barren, but it doesn't change the fact that the Twins Minor League system is bare. That fact is doubly concerning, since we've been picking so high recently.

 

As far the response that we have a lot of talent "below the line" of 100; that doesn't change anything. Almost every organization can say the same thing. The problem with the Twins system is they have not been identifying the right players to draft or sign internationally. I think a lot of that rides on the scouting department, especially since the Twins under Terry Ryan placed great emphasis on scouting. Back to one of my original points, what has changed in our scouting department to give anyone any confidence that these guys aren't going to blow this years draft as well?

 

I know Falvey and Levine are new, but frankly they really haven't done anything different in the 6+ months they've been in charge than the previous regime - at least not from a visible viewpoint.

[drjim]

Which part am I exaggerating? I'm reading, as expected, that the farm system is fine. On other threads, I'm reading they need 1-2 RPs (from the minors) and 1 more SP to be legit this year.

I guess I won't speak for everyone but both of those points are absurd.

 

The system isn't "fine" it lacks impact talent. That seems pretty universally acknowledged. And especially in the context of drafting high for so many years.

 

On the major league roster, their pitching is still really bad. If they fill 4 holes it might be ok. But the lineup is close to legit.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As far the response that we have a lot of talent "below the line" of 100; that doesn't change anything. Almost every organization can say the same thing.

Except they can't, as evidenced by Sickels' preseason farm ranking of 15. Dead center in MLB.

[drjim]

But on the bigger point, it was time for Ryan to go, but the franchise wasn't in dire condition. But it desperately needed an upgrade and some new ideas.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The farm system is fine, and the majors are a tweak away....and people felt Ryan should be fired? Help me out here....

On that tangent, it's interesting to think that none of the recent roster/personnel moves would have been out of place with TR at the helm.  Castro, Gimenez, Adrianza, Belisle, Breslow, Haley, Tepesch, Wilk, Duffey to the pen, etc.  Even dismissing Brunansky as hitting coach.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I guess I won't speak for everyone but both of those points are absurd.

The system isn't "fine" it lacks impact talent. That seems pretty universally acknowledged. And especially in the context of drafting high for so many years.

On the major league roster, their pitching is still really bad. If they fill 4 holes it might be ok. But the lineup is close to legit.

 

Isn't that what the OP said, and isn't that what people are arguing against? I must be reading it wrong. Because, that's what he said, it isn't highly ranked, and lacks impact players. 

 

BTW, I agree on the MLB team, but that's not the tone of the site right now, and I'm not going to go into every thread and disagree, that's just not nice.

[Seth Stohs]

 

The Twins don't need an infusion of talent. They need to begin hole-filling. That can be done via trade or free agency.

 

You're conflating top 100 prospect lists with organizational strength. There are loads of prospects who help their MLB teams without touching a top prospect list. The Twins have lots of those guys, they just don't have the Byron Buxtons in the farm system anymore.

 

There's a reason why most farm system rankings have the Twins in the 15-20 range (ie. squarely in the middle of all MLB teams, if not a touch below). They have talent, it's simply not top 100 talent. If you want to see a truly barren farm system, look at the Angels or Tigers. They don't have talent of any kind. The Twins aren't in that category, not even close to it.

 

I agree with this... Here's a look at the current player with the Next In Line or within next years.

 

 

C - Castro (3 years) --> Murphy/Garver both at AAA, look like decent backups. 

1B - Mauer (2 years) ---> Vargas, Sano, Park... Diaz in three years... or Sano.

2B - Dozier (2 years) ---> Polanco, Gordon, Vielma

SS - Polanco (Long Time) ---> Gordon, Vielma .... Palacios, Javier

3B - Sano (Long Time) ---> see SS list, maybe Blankenhorn down the line.

OF- Rosario, Buxton, Kepler (Long Time) ---> Granite, Palka, Wade 

 

SP - Santana (2-3 years), Santiago (this year), Hughes (2-3-4 years), Gibson (looking like this year)... ---> Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves, Jorge, Stewart, Romero, Thorpe, L. Wells, etc.

 

RP - Lots of guys (Pressly, Duffey, Rogers could be here awhile) --> Hildenberger, Melotakis, Busenitz, Burdi, Reed, Curtiss, Jay (and any number of the starters, if there's not room, etc.)

 

So yeah, not a ton of Top 100 guys, but there is talent that will be able to surround Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios... who will be the core... And, hopefully a few more minor leaguers will take a big step the rest of this year. Gonsalves, Jay and Thorpe come back healthy and strong. Hopefully Romero and Jorge and Granite and Palka keep improving. 

 

I'd agree that the Twins farm system isn't strong and it's certainly not top-heavy, but I agree with Brock that there is talent to complement the (hopefully) stars... 

 

And, with Sean Johnson taking over for Deron Johnson, that can only be a positive. And, Falvey and Levine have been rather involved. So, we'll see what happens. Internationally, they've had seemingly good signings like Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Jorge, Diaz, Javier, and bad signings (maybe Minier)... And, it appears they'll sign Jelfry Marte this year. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

On that tangent, it's interesting to think that none of the recent roster/personnel moves would have been out of place with TR at the helm. Castro, Gimenez, Adrianza, Belisle, Breslow, Haley, Tepesch, Wilk, Duffey to the pen, etc. Even dismissing Brunansky as hitting coach.

I think it's a bit unfair to say Ryan would have acquired this catching corps for the reasons Falvey acquired them.

 

The others? Yeah, hard to see a lot of difference there but I think it's a mistake to assume the process is the same because the result is similar.

[drjim]

On that tangent, it's interesting to think that none of the recent roster/personnel moves would have been out of place with TR at the helm. Castro, Gimenez, Adrianza, Belisle, Breslow, Haley, Tepesch, Wilk, Duffey to the pen, etc. Even dismissing Brunansky as hitting coach.

Part of the reason is that every front office is going to be about 90% the same (in the context of their resources).

[Seth Stohs]

 

I know Falvey and Levine are new, but frankly they really haven't done anything different in the 6+ months they've been in charge than the previous regime - at least not from a visible viewpoint.

 

We don't know that... they have (likely) set up new metrics, new ways of evaluating talent and put that to work, given players an opportunity while evaluating, and keeping tabs on what other minor league organizations have differently. Just because we haven't seen a ton of transactions doesn't mean things aren't completely different. 

[drjim]

Isn't that what the OP said, and isn't that what people are arguing against? I must be reading it wrong. Because, that's what he said, it isn't highly ranked, and lacks impact players.

 

BTW, I agree on the MLB team, but that's not the tone of the site right now, and I'm not going to go into every thread and disagree, that's just not nice.

I guess I see people discussing with more nuance a blunt point made in the original post.

[whydidnt]

I think it's a bit unfair to say Ryan would have acquired this catching corps for the reasons Falvey acquired them.

The others? Yeah, hard to see a lot of difference there but I think it's a mistake to assume the process is the same because the result is similar.

I agree the process is likely different, but if in the end the results are similar, what's the difference? I'm speaking in particular about the abject failure to address the pitching staff with anything other than bargain basemen old guys and rule V picks.