If then.....a trade for pitching question.

[FlauerPauer]

 

I don't want Sano's best years wasted by trotting out starting rotations such as we have right now.

 

 

This a thousand times.  Mauer's and even Morneau's prime, to an extent, were wasted with inefficient starting pitching.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My point was simply that Sano could be a once in a decade / generation type player and the twins can't waste that by not having credible pitching while he is around (and the others around his age).

Wouldn't that be an argument for seeking improvements ASAP, though?  Sano is only controlled for 5 years, and this is one of them.

[yarnivek1972]

This a thousand times. Mauer's and even Morneau's prime, to an extent, were wasted with inefficient starting pitching.

The Twins had a Cy Young winner on their team during Morneau's MVP season, which was also Mauer's second best season, so I have a hard time buying that. 2006 was their best shot. It didn't work out. Mr Mauer was 2 for 11 in that debacle. He can point fingers at the org if he chooses, but that simply means 3 fingers are pointing back at him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins had a Cy Young winner on their team during Morneau's MVP season, which was also Mauer's second best season, so I have a hard time buying that. 2006 was their best shot. It didn't work out. Mr Mauer was 2 for 11 in that debacle. He can point fingers at the org if he chooses, but that simply means 3 fingers are pointing back at him.

 

I don't think the Twins completely wasted Mauer and Morneau's primes, but the team needed and deserved a SP reinforcement in 2006, even before Liriano's injury.  And they definitely didn't deserve trading Santana and Garza without obvious replacements in 2008 and beyond.  (Although it's not just pitching -- any of those seasons could have benefitted from an additional bat too.)

 

Especially deflating is the fact that in 2006 we actually avoided the Yankees in the first round, and in 2008 the Yankees missed the playoffs entirely.

 

Perhaps the Yankee curse would have continued in 2009-2010 regardless, but I would have liked my chances a lot better those years with some combination of a re-signed Santana, Garza, Cliff Lee, or even Jim Thome (a bat I wanted them to acquire after 2002 and again after 2005).

[crapforks]

 

I'm not in favor of the "all in" approach that some teams take when they trade away future prospects for the stud that will put them over the top for one year.  To me, it boils down to about a 1 in 12 shot at winning it all vs. a better shot at being in the playoffs on a regular basis.  The playoffs are a weird, wide open thing.  If a team gets hot, they can win it all with less talent than another team who paid dearly for that stud to bring them to the promise land.  I like the possibility of a dynasty over a shot at winning it for a year.

I don't think that is an either/or situation. Even dynasties buy the rentals when needed. 

[crapforks]

 

The original thread has been lost. As I understand it, the scenario is:
It's the trading deadline and
The twins are a little over .500

I think we all agree that absent those parameters, no trade makes sense. But, under that scenario, might (emphasis on might) a trade make sense?

The Twins minor league is VERY strong at middle infielders and (lower down) future CFs. Indeed, one could argue that there is a bit of a traffic jam at middle infield in the minors.

It is at least a little possible that the Twins could get a rental # 3 pitcher for Vielma, a CF prospect and maybe one of the many, many power relievers.

I disagree with that philosophy. CF prospects with any sign of a bat should be able to hold down a corner. MI prospects with any sign of a bat should be able to hold down a corner. A LF, RF, 3B, 1B with signs of a bat have less room for error because there is less available to slide down to on the defensive spectrum. Just like a SP prospect always has RP to slide down to if struggles persist. Not to say ALL up the middle players can play corners, or ALL SP prospects can thrive in relief, but they have a better shot than the inverse. 

[Linus]

Wouldn't that be an argument for seeking improvements ASAP, though? Sano is only controlled for 5 years, and this is one of them.

Quite possibly but it likely excludes pitchers over 30 years old.

[FlauerPauer]

 

I don't think the Twins completely wasted Mauer and Morneau's primes, but the team needed and deserved a SP reinforcement in 2006, even before Liriano's injury.  And they definitely didn't deserve trading Santana and Garza without obvious replacements in 2008 and beyond.  (Although it's not just pitching -- any of those seasons could have benefitted from an additional bat too.)

 

Especially deflating is the fact that in 2006 we actually avoided the Yankees in the first round, and in 2008 the Yankees missed the playoffs entirely.

 

Perhaps the Yankee curse would have continued in 2009-2010 regardless, but I would have liked my chances a lot better those years with some combination of a re-signed Santana, Garza, Cliff Lee, or even Jim Thome (a bat I wanted them to acquire after 2002 and again after 2005).

 

This is what I was referring to in my earlier post.  The inability to add to the roster.  The boys needed a boost like Shannon Stewart provided in 2003. 

[yarnivek1972]

This is what I was referring to in my earlier post. The inability to add to the roster. The boys needed a boost like Shannon Stewart provided in 2003.

That I think I can agree with to a point. But in 2006 - which I still think was their best shot - wasn't Liriano's injury like right after the july deadline? And then Radke went down too. I'm not sure starting pitching was a predictable need until it was too late.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That I think I can agree with to a point. But in 2006 - which I still think was their best shot - wasn't Liriano's injury like right after the july deadline? And then Radke went down too. I'm not sure starting pitching was a predictable need until it was too late.

Radke's shoulder was taped on at that point, they had already dumped Lohse, Silva was having an awful year, etc. At the very least, they should have picked up a backend guy.

 

And then there was the offense, where Jason Tyner was a playoff starting DH, and Rondell White in LF.

[USAFChief]

Radke's shoulder was taped on at that point, they had already dumped Lohse, Silva was having an awful year, etc. At the very least, they should have picked up a backend guy.

And then there was the offense, where Jason Tyner was a playoff starting DH, and Rondell White in LF.

Yup.

 

Book Bonser started game 2, the shell of Radke game three. Phil Nevin at DH game 1, Tyler game 2 and 3.

 

Inexcusable.

[Brandon]

So back to the original question.....IF....tje Twins are in contention, should we trade for a starter. If Berrios zucceeds this time we will have 4 starters. We could go for Greinke if Az falls further back. He is signed for years and we can trade less talent deoending on how much contract we take. Remember Mauer is done after next year. Or we can go after a 4 starter. It depends on what you feel as a consensus feel we need. Pleas only reply with either Greinke, number 4 starter or name who you think we can target. When we get a consensus we can figure out a fair trade package to send.

[Brandon]

I also meamt include trade ideas too but kets not stray from the topic

[jorgenswest]

I guess anyone would make a deal where the Twins give up a little and get a starter. I don't think that is reality. Starters during the season are very expensive in terms of prospects. There will be enough competition for Grienke that he will be expensive also.

 

The Twins don't have the prospects to get a deal done for a good starter and even a middling starter that might be a number 4 on a playoff team will cost a very good prospect.

 

Reverse it. Suppose the situation reverses and the Twins put Santana on the market. Do you take the equivalent of a Gordon and Garver? The key to any deal is the best prospect and I would think that the market would offer someone better than a Gordon for Santana.

 

So no, I don't think the trade route will work. I don't want to part with Buxton or Berrios or Kepler to get pitching and the drop off to the tier of young players in the minors is too steep to generate interest. The Twins need to count on Berrios and likely Mejia and Duffey to fill any holes in the rotation.

[Rosterman]

You have to judge the "being in contention" with the reality of going not only to the playoffs but the World Series. The Twins could win the division, yes, but how would they matchup - now - in the others games to be played. Is it worth it to trade many, many pieces for someone who will be another Ervin Santana, perhaps. That is WHY is is as important as ever for the Twins to use ANY open roster spots, be it temporary, to showcase a Stewart or Gonsalves or Hurlbuit or Granite. Give the guys a taste of the big leagues. They have a chance of striking out a batter or getting a hit as much as any of the minor league depth free agents you signed WHO WON'T BE WITH THE TEAM = IN 2018 or Beyond. But you have to work VERY VERY HARD with anyone you think is a prospect and fits into the plans. ONCE you have that figured out, you can look at your minor league depth and if it is there, make changes.

 

You especially have to start looking at relief pitchers, considering the current bullpen is barely getting it done. You have the talented arms. They may not be quite ready, but give them that taste.

 

40-man roster decisions will be huge this off-season. 

 

But I don't think we are ready to start printing World Series tickets. If it happens, once we face every team in the league, that we are showing strong competition, maybe, maybe you can think...but how does that guy fit into the plans of 2019 and beyond, compared to the talent that may be the asking price for such a piece.

 

You also have to look closely at your own pieces and what you could get for them...like Hughes, Santiago (who will be a free agent, I believe) and Ervin. You have to make a decision on Dozier. Looks like Vargas is playing like he knows this is his last chance for a job with the Twins (or elsewhere). Right now, those are the expendables on the Twins roster with a few others (Escobar, any of the relief pitchers) possibly available for some small change. 

 

It's becoming a fun ride, but we are doing it because of some strong starting pitching, and a different lineup everyday (Polanco batting cleanup?).

 

 

[Brandon]

Ok so if there are lots of pitchers available. You can get one at a reasonable cost. I will give you a scenario. Say the Twins are 56 - 44. Would you want to trade for a 4th starter or ace. You decide and communicate your answer and any premise you need to add to justify your decision. Or just say no trade and keep it short. Cause this post is about taking action. I think getting a 4th starter helps win the division or compete with Cleveland but an ace gives us a better shot in playoffs. I like someone like Greinke if AZ chips in some money. What would i trade? Here is a package i would consider. Romero, Jay, Wade, Palacious or Engelb, and maybe another pitcher from a group of pitchers to be named. And Az kicks in 30 million. How far off from a trade am I?

[Brandon]

In that scenario we get an ace. And someone to replace Santiago next season. While the prosoects are good and Romero is even a potential ace. He is not on the same timeline as our current core. Loosing Jay hurts but we have lots of relivers knocking on the door now. We have Buxton so Wade is at best a 4th OF here. AZ gets the benefit of prospects and saving 140 million or so. We have Mauer and Santiago comming off the books soon to offset cost. Now i dont kniw the full value of our propects but is that enough. Why or why not.

[jorgenswest]

I think another team will come up with a better headline prospect. It doesn't get it done unless the Twins are willing to part with one of their young players on the major league roster.

[Brandon]

Keep in mond there will likely be more pitchers on the market then last year by a large margin and there wont be many first round picks as consolation prizes so sellers loose a lot of.leverage over years last. Something to think about.

[jorgenswest]

When was the last time a top starting pitcher was traded in summer and the return had no one in the top 100 prospects? I don't think the Twins can make up for high end prospects by volume. They missed opportunities with the selections of Stewart and Jay and they are paying for it now with the lack of high end talent in the system. I hope I am wrong but there will plenty of buyers and almost all of them will have better high end prospects.

[kab21]

My opinion is to still go for a Santiago or Jepsen type trade if the Twins are contending. The one exception would be a better starter on a somewhat bloated contract with at least 1.5 yrs remaining.

 

Imo though they almost have to pick up a #4 starter for a depth type prospect (#15-30 org range).

[Brock Beauchamp]

My opinion is to still go for a Santiago or Jepsen type trade if the Twins are contending. The one exception would be a better starter on a somewhat bloated contract with at least 1.5 yrs remaining.

 

Imo though they almost have to pick up a #4 starter for a depth type prospect (#15-30 org range).

So much depends on Berrios and Mejia. Berrios looked good today. If Mejia can be adequate, I'd look at bullpen help first.

 

Though if Burdi is promoted, who knows.

 

Lots of baseball to be played before we know what to do at the deadline.

[kab21]

 

So much depends on Berrios and Mejia. Berrios looked good today. If Mejia can be adequate, I'd look at bullpen help first.

Though if Burdi is promoted, who knows.

Lots of baseball to be played before we know what to do at the deadline.

That is the most optimistic scenario. The scenario that involves both Mejia and Hughes being adequate, Berrios doing well (good chance of 4.00 or even lower) and nobody getting injured. If all of those happen then I agree with you. Most likely both moves (bullpen and starter) need to be made.

[AZTwin]

Would you trade meija back to the Giants for Jeff samardiza? Otherwise I would consider sending them Palka and a guy like max Murphy, Sam clay or Chris Paul

[Brock Beauchamp]

That is the most optimistic scenario. The scenario that involves both Mejia and Hughes being adequate, Berrios doing well (good chance of 4.00 or even lower) and nobody getting injured. If all of those happen then I agree with you. Most likely both moves (bullpen and starter) need to be made.

I agree that's the likely outcome, just saying it's early and a lot can change. Given how Hughes has pitched, I think he'll be an acceptable back of the rotation guy, getting through lineups with pure moxy.

 

The wildcard is Mejia. He could be okay, he could be a disaster.

[kab21]

 

I agree that's the likely outcome, just saying it's early and a lot can change. Given how Hughes has pitched, I think he'll be an acceptable back of the rotation guy, getting through lineups with pure moxy.

The wildcard is Mejia. He could be okay, he could be a disaster.

I am just saying that everything has to go right in that scenario. Hopefully it does and honestly if the Twins are contending then it might have.

[TheLeviathan]

In no way do I want any part of Grienke's contract.  I'm not convinced he really is back given his velocity decrease.

[crapforks]

So much can happen between Now and then, but it's fun to play the 'what if' game. I would like the team to target someone like Trevor Cahill. Just a steady rotation presence. Signed for 1yr, 1.75 million. Shouldn't cost a ton. Gotta act early, before the bidding amongst contenders heats up.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess anyone would make a deal where the Twins give up a little and get a starter. I don't think that is reality. Starters during the season are very expensive in terms of prospects. There will be enough competition for Grienke that he will be expensive also.

 

The Twins don't have the prospects to get a deal done for a good starter and even a middling starter that might be a number 4 on a playoff team will cost a very good prospect.

 

Reverse it. Suppose the situation reverses and the Twins put Santana on the market. Do you take the equivalent of a Gordon and Garver? The key to any deal is the best prospect and I would think that the market would offer someone better than a Gordon for Santana.

 

So no, I don't think the trade route will work. I don't want to part with Buxton or Berrios or Kepler to get pitching and the drop off to the tier of young players in the minors is too steep to generate interest. The Twins need to count on Berrios and likely Mejia and Duffey to fill any holes in the rotation.

I easily take Gordon and Garver for Santana. Easily

[Brandon]

I agree with the number 4 starter. I like the CaHill idea and Hellickson could be had too. I just know how much everyone here clamors for an ace and Darvish, Greinke, and Cueto could be available this sunmer with lots of 3/4 starters. I too get tired of bad trade offers which is why i was trying to get the community to analyze options and propose their own ideas and maybe do a pole to see which trade proposal we think is most possible.