Two open spots in the Twins rotation

[Thrylos]

Finally, someone with access confirmed what some of us have been looking at all Spring:

 

 

Right-handers Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson figure to slot Nos. 2-3 in the rotation behind Santana while Berrios, Santiago, Tyler Duffey, Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong and Adalberto Mejia battle for the fourth and fifth spots.

 

Santiago does not have a spot penciled in...

 

 

[drjim]

This makes me much more nervous about Berrios than anything.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Basically, how I read this was Molitor and Allen wish none of the pitchers was at the WBC so that the pitchers could stay on the Twins program. The rotation guess looks like reporter-guessing based on the conversation with Molitor. How did you read it different?

[Linus]

I guess I go back to my thoughts before spring training. Santana is a lock: everyone else is fighting for a job. Any other path denies the fact the Twins had the worst rotation in baseball last year. Why Mollie and the new front office are so comfortable with this collection is beyond me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

We had an article not long ago that quoted Monitor, in no uncertain terms, that the first 4 starters were set and they included Santiago.

 

This article includes no direct quotes saying that Santiago's spot is in jeopardy. As far as being from "someone with access" I was expecting Berardino but I see the byline is Brian Murphy -- I am not familiar with his work.

 

In any case, I pretty much won't believe that Santiago's spot is in jeopardy until I see a direct quote from someone in the org saying so.

[drjim]

We had an article not long ago that quoted Monitor, in no uncertain terms, that the first 4 starters were set and they included Santiago.

 

This article includes no direct quotes saying that Santiago's spot is in jeopardy. As far as being from "someone with access" I was expecting Berardino but I see the byline is Brian Murphy -- I am not familiar with his work.

 

In any case, I pretty much won't believe that Santiago's spot is in jeopardy until I see a direct quote from someone in the org saying so.

Santiago's spot is not in jeopardy.

 

Murphy does some good work on occasion, but it's mostly hackery.

[Thrylos]

 

We had an article not long ago that quoted Monitor, in no uncertain terms, that the first 4 starters were set and they included Santiago.

 

Any idea when it was the last time that Santiago pitched longer than 2-2/3 innings?

[DJSim22]

 

Basically, how I read this was Molitor and Allen wish none of the pitchers was at the WBC so that the pitchers could stay on the Twins program. The rotation guess looks like reporter-guessing based on the conversation with Molitor. How did you read it different?

 

Completely agree, I see no confirmation here. 

[Tom Froemming]

Why would they have tendered Santiago a contract if they weren't going to put him in the rotation? Makes no sense. I don't think their evaluation of him would have changed too much between then and now.

[sthpstm]

Why would they have tendered Santiago a contract if they weren't going to put him in the rotation? Makes no sense. I don't think their evaluation of him would have changed too much between then and now.

Their opinion of Santiago probably didn't, but it is possible that their opinions of others have changed enough to push him out. That might not be likely,but it is possible.

I know a lot here would be upset if Vogelsong made the rotation, but what if it was at the expense of Santiago instead of a young guy?

[Linus]

Their opinion of Santiago probably didn't, but it is possible that their opinions of others have changed enough to push him out. That might not be likely,but it is possible.

I know a lot here would be upset if Vogelsong made the rotation, but what if it was at the expense of Santiago instead of a young guy?

Right now Santiago is a young guy. At least relatively speaking as his probable replacement would be Vogelsong.

[EddieMatthews]

With the pitching woes of 2016 fresh in mind, Molitor and the FO will not run out any rookies in the starting five before letting their "proven" starters lose their spots.  That means Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Santiago have a lock barring injury.  I don't see Duffey in that group.  Adalberto (love that name) Meija may bump Berrios.  They both have something to prove in spring training.  

 

The starters who end up in Rochester will be on standby to return to MN.  I don't see the starting five as static over the first two months.  Injury and struggles will be the norm.  I also don't like to see a starting pitcher  moved to the bullpen.  Bad thing for May.  Don't do it any more.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm actually okay with (virtually) guaranteeing Santiago a spot in the rotation on Opening Day. He has a relatively long track record of acceptable performance.

 

Given May's injury, the Santiago tender looks like a good decision. At the very least, the team can get six weeks of pitching out of him and reevaluate. Even if he's below average, there's a good chance he sticks in the rotation because Hughes and/or Gibson are even worse.

 

But if Santiago is gone, any failure from Hughes or Gibson becomes a pretty bad situation for the Twins, as their short-term rotation depth drops to zero if both Berrios and Mejia are in the rotation.

[theBOMisthebomb]

The Twins should go with JO. Mejia shows promise.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I also don't like to see a starting pitcher  moved to the bullpen.  Bad thing for May.  Don't do it any more.

Oh man, that's really unproven. I don't think we should assume that being in the pen made May get TJ any more than we should assume that playing video games late at night made him get TJ. May could just as easily have gotten TJ if he'd been a starter the whole time.

 

Johan Santana gained valuable experience pitching out of the Twins pen and made a seamless transition to starting when he was ready (well, long after he was ready but you get my point). 

 

I think we should let the Twins brain trust make decisions on that - one case does not proof make.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'm actually okay with (virtually) guaranteeing Santiago a spot in the rotation on Opening Day. He has a relatively long track record of acceptable performance.

 

Given May's injury, the Santiago tender looks like a good decision. At the very least, the team can get six weeks of pitching out of him and reevaluate. Even if he's below average, there's a good chance he sticks in the rotation because Hughes and/or Gibson are even worse.

 

But if Santiago is gone, any failure from Hughes or Gibson becomes a pretty bad situation for the Twins, as their short-term rotation depth drops to zero if both Berrios and Mejia are in the rotation.

 

Agreed. Hughes, Santiago, Gibson and Santana may not be the most ideal starting rotation but if we're looking long-term, the hope has to be that with a hot half-season, the Twins can trade some of them and get some prospects back while opening up rotation spots for the next wave of starters.

 

I do think that Santiago is the worst of the bunch. I hope they have an extraordinarily short leash with him if he sucks at first. Hughes and Gibson have had success in the past so I'm willing to give them some slack (I actually think we should be more optimistic about GIbby - he's still got the potential to be a nice pitcher and he's young enough to be a part of the next Twins playoff team).

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm actually okay with (virtually) guaranteeing Santiago a spot in the rotation on Opening Day. He has a relatively long track record of acceptable performance.

 

Given May's injury, the Santiago tender looks like a good decision. At the very least, the team can get six weeks of pitching out of him and reevaluate. Even if he's below average, there's a good chance he sticks in the rotation because Hughes and/or Gibson are even worse.

 

But if Santiago is gone, any failure from Hughes or Gibson becomes a pretty bad situation for the Twins, as their short-term rotation depth drops to zero if both Berrios and Mejia are in the rotation.

 

so, if three starters are out of the rotation, it will be hard to have depth behind the replacements? Other than the Dodgers, isn't that true of every team in baseball?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Do the Twins only owe Santiago a percentage of his salary if he is released before the start of the season?

[Nick Nelson]

Santiago's spot is basically a lock. Murphy has been down in camp for a few days, and evidently doesn't even know how to spell Neil Allen's first name. Not sure why you think he'd have some special insight on this matter other than that it jibes with what you want to believe. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

so, if three starters are out of the rotation, it will be hard to have depth behind the replacements? Other than the Dodgers, isn't that true of every team in baseball?

Yeah, but the Twins have a high chance of failure. Normally, I'd be comfortable with 6-7 rotation pieces to start the season but with this rotation, I want 7-8 because I expect the turnover to be high.

 

Gibson, Hughes, and Santiago all have ceilings of mediocrity (or slightly better), which is valuable to the Twins... but they all have high chances of implosion, too.

 

Basically, I want some protection as a bridge to the second half of the season, when one of Romero or Gonsalves will hopefully be ready. Santiago provides that bridge whereas Vogelsong is the type of guy you bring in when things go horribly wrong. You don't start the season with that guy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Do the Twins only owe Santiago a percentage of his salary if he is released before the start of the season?

Only if another team claims him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agreed. Hughes, Santiago, Gibson and Santana may not be the most ideal starting rotation but if we're looking long-term, the hope has to be that with a hot half-season, the Twins can trade some of them and get some prospects back while opening up rotation spots for the next wave of starters.

 

I do think that Santiago is the worst of the bunch. I hope they have an extraordinarily short leash with him if he sucks at first. Hughes and Gibson have had success in the past so I'm willing to give them some slack (I actually think we should be more optimistic about GIbby - he's still got the potential to be a nice pitcher and he's young enough to be a part of the next Twins playoff team).

To me, Gibson and Santiago are close to the same guy. Gibson probably has a smidgeon higher ceiling but they're roughly the same age and Santiago has a longer track record of decent performance.

[drjim]

To me, Gibson and Santiago are close to the same guy. Gibson probably has a smidgeon higher ceiling but they're roughly the same age and Santiago has a longer track record of decent performance.

They are perfectly acceptable bridges for a team in the Twins position. They even have a decent shot to flip Santiago at the deadline.

[Han Joelo]

A team traded a starting pitcher and a decent prospect for Santiago last season.  I wouldn't just dump him.  Could be worth something if he pitches at all decently.

 

With the new regime, I'm not too worried about this all shaking out one way or another.  If the young guys are good enough, they'll get their chance.  Probably not going to cost us a playoff spot either way.

 

Berrios has probably blown whatever chance he had by pitching in the WBC, but in the long run it might be better for him anyway, developmentally.  I think outside of Santana, the guys who have been working with Castro and Gimenez will be on the roster, which might well include Meija.

[beckmt]

We just have to expect this, not what I would do, but understandable.  Twins will make changes this year and the leash will be much shorter as the backups are a lot closer. 

Still just have Hughes penciled in until I am sure he can maintain his velocity(92 mph) thru the middle innings. 

Will see how this plays out, but would be upset if Vogelsong is the 5th starter.

[EddieMatthews]

 

Oh man, that's really unproven. I don't think we should assume that being in the pen made May get TJ any more than we should assume that playing video games late at night made him get TJ. 

 

There's been a bigly uptick in TJ surgery at the video gamer's club lately.  Maybe the AHCA will exclude this activity from coverage.

[Nick Nelson]

 

There's been a bigly uptick in TJ surgery at the video gamer's club lately.  Maybe the AHCA will exclude this activity from coverage.

You're thinking of Donkey Kong surgery, not Tommy John. Easy to make that mistake, they do rhyme. 

[Vanimal46]

So, nothing to see here. Cool. 

[Twins33]

 

Only if another team claims him.

My understanding is that arbitration contracts are not guaranteed until the season starts.

 

They can release Santiago during Spring Training and only pay him a certain percentage of that contract. He could get either 30 days or 45 days salary depending on when he gets released (I don't know the cut off time for either of those). So they wouldn't be able to get rid of the whole contract, but the majority of it, if they released him during spring training.

[Thrylos]

 

A team traded a starting pitcher and a decent prospect for Santiago last season. 

 

Do you think that the GM who made that trade for that particular team is employable anywhere else in baseball?