Article: Twins Claim Ehire Adrianza, DFA Pat Light

[Doomtints]

 

No. Light will be claimed. 

 

If someone wants to claim Jim Hoey Light, let 'em. If the Twins lose any sleep over that one they are off their meds.

 

[brvama]

Too small of a sample size to use UZR or even Total Zone. Just use Range Factor for now.

 

.

That may be so, I'll leave that to you stat people. However, you still haven't provided any data to support your statement. Thus your position on his defense convinces no one, including me. Regarding small sample, I would then defer to scouting reports.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Too small of a sample size to use UZR or even Total Zone. Just use Range Factor for now.  

 

Did that. What's the next step in your process?

 

[Shaitan]

 

What did we expect as a return for 2 months of Abad? The Red Sox didn't put the wool over our eyes. Receiving a flawed prospect should be expected for a guy like Abad.  

Agreed.

 

Which is why I don't get many of the "sign a veteran and flip him" arguments about mediocre players still available in free agency. Sign them to help the team in the present, sure. Cut 'em even, but don't fool yourself into thinking you'll get a good return in a trade.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If we're looking for defense, why not bring back the great Florimon.

according to fangraphs he wasn't that great of a fielder, 3.8 UZR150 aggregate with heavy streaks and a 550 ops is even worse than Adrianza. Edited February 8, 2017 by Sconnie

[Doomtints]

 

Did that. What's the next step in your process?

 

That's not range factor if you are referring to the highlighted column.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

That's not range factor if you are referring to the highlighted column.

 

...

[Doomtints]

...

Weird. You're fighting rather than looking it up?

 

RZR is not range factor. This is range factor. You won't find it on fangraphs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Range_factor

 

Fangraphites don't like range factor because you cannot compare people who play different positions with it. You can only compare 1B to 1B, 2B to 2B, etc. Therefore you can't roll it up into an advanced metric like UZR. But you CAN use it to compare a SS to other shortstops.

[bird]

 

 

 

Interesting stat: Grossman played 190 games for three years with the Astros, hit .240/.327/.341/.668 with 11 home runs.

 

In 2016, he hit 11 home runs in 99 games, hitting .280/.386/.443/.828.

 

Does he really like the food at Target Field, or what?

 

 

 

Apparently he and Bruno avoided each other.

[Guest]

Too small of a sample size to use UZR or even Total Zone. Just use Range Factor for now.

 

Isn't RF hard to use for SSS, also?

[Doomtints]

 

Isn't RF hard to use for SSS, also?

 

RF is available for minor league stats so SSS isn't an issue. Even if you don't trust the minors stats for some reason, RF is considered trustworthy after half a season as opposed to 3 years for UZR.

 

RF is far from an uberstat. You can't use it for first basemen, for example. But it's a good stat for looking at other position players who haven't been in the majors for three full years yet.

 

I look at RF for rookies or players with tiny MLB sample sizes. I use Total Zone for seasons with at least 100 starts at a position because I think it's important to be able to compare players from any era. I look at the UZR suite only casually. 

 

I love looking at Statcast data but like everybody else I feel it's hard to get one's head around. Plus it seems spotty/difficult to access fully.

 

As far as Adrianza goes, I think the Twins probably see something they can correct with his bat because he spreads it around and makes good contact. The results just haven't been there for him. With more walks he can be an everyday player even if he can't hit for power. His defense is an upgrade, average-to-above-average. He has a lot of potential to be a good backup player as his floor.

Edited February 8, 2017 by Doomtints

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Weird. You're fighting rather than looking it up?

 

RZR is not range factor. This is range factor. You won't find it on fangraphs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Range_factor

 

Fangraphites don't like range factor because you cannot compare people who play different positions with it. You can only compare 1B to 1B, 2B to 2B, etc. Therefore you can't roll it up into an advanced metric like UZR. But you CAN use it to compare a SS to other shortstops.

 

Get it?

so I'm struggling w/ point of reference. Adrianza was 4.2 RF per game in 2016 and the NL leader was Story at 4.5. 2014 NL leader was Hechavarria at 4.37 and the highest over the last few years was Tulo in '07 at 5.31. Most of the NL entries have been in the 4.5 +\- .1. So that seems pretty good but I can't find a full table on bbref

[snepp]

Given the differences between ball-in-play types and frequencies of pitching staffs, range factor is every bit as lousy (if not more) in small samples.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Given the differences between ball-in-play types and frequencies of pitching staffs, range factor is every bit as lousy (if not more) in small samples.

Range Factor doesn't account for shifting, does it? Unless they changed it recently, I'm pretty sure it doesn't adjust for shifting.

 

The same goes for UZR, I believe.

 

It's hard to put much weight in either statistic at that point, particularly in small numbers and for infielders who shift more frequently than their outfield counterparts.

[specialiststeve]

Defensive metric stats are not reliable. Unless they have the same person going over the positioning, exit velocity of the ball hit, air temp, ground crew average pay..... it is just a poorly conceived stat. There are SO many variables that it just can't be measurable on the defensive side of things. I wonder what Cal Ripkin's metrics would have been..Likely pretty low... The guy knew where to be, knew the hitters, had a great glove, etc...  There are some things in this game that need an old fashioned scout.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Defensive metric stats are not reliable. Unless they have the same person going over the positioning, exit velocity of the ball hit, air temp, ground crew average pay..... it is just a poorly conceived stat. There are SO many variables that it just can't be measurable on the defensive side of things. I wonder what Cal Ripkin's metrics would have been..Likely pretty low... The guy knew where to be, knew the hitters, had a great glove, etc...  There are some things in this game that need an old fashioned scout.

 

Does the old fashioned scout watch every play by every player, so he can do a comparison? Which one, really, is likely to have seen more plays, to do more comparisons? 

[specialiststeve]

 

Does the old fashioned scout watch every play by every player, so he can do a comparison? Which one, really, is likely to have seen more plays, to do more comparisons? 

 

Respectfully you miss my point. The scout(s) which I have met and discussed baseball with do go and see a variety of different players and the good ones will watch players play for extended games and chances to look at their fundamentals etc.... I have coached and been around baseball for 45 years and am likely just an old fart but I can go to a game and Know a player that has good range as well as mechanics.

 

Scouts notes can vary but DO put in variables that explain things in detail. Metrics unless have the same person doing the input and under the same conditions simply are also subjective. They may have some value in a "general  sense" but saying a player is a good or not a good defensive player by "just" using these statistics would be a bad idea.

 

Mind you some scouts are better than others and is  also a subjective venture at best.

 

My point is that you can't trust the statistics as the variables are WAY to inconsistent. Not a math major but do know in order to have statistics be accurate and valuable the variables need to be consistent and thus the validity is questionable.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Respectfully you miss my point. The scout(s) which I have met and discussed baseball with do go and see a variety of different players and the good ones will watch players play for extended games and chances to look at their fundamentals etc.... I have coached and been around baseball for 45 years and am likely just an old fart but I can go to a game and Know a player that has good range as well as mechanics.

 

Scouts notes can vary but DO put in variables that explain things in detail. Metrics unless have the same person doing the input and under the same conditions simply are also subjective. They may have some value in a "general  sense" but saying a player is a good or not a good defensive player by "just" using these statistics would be a bad idea.

 

Mind you some scouts are better than others and is  also a subjective venture at best.

 

My point is that you can't trust the statistics as the variables are WAY to inconsistent. Not a math major but do know in order to have statistics be accurate and valuable the variables need to be consistent and thus the validity is questionable.

 

How do scouts compare their notes to other scouts? Because you are arguing the "stats nerds" can't do that....

 

I'm not missing your point at all. You are stating something as fact, that the eyeball is better than a stat, when you can't prove that at all. Both are important, but since teams are literally paying GMs and assistants LOADS of money to implement the use of these stats, I'd guess you are wrong.

[h2oface]

Alternate facts.

Are alternate facts an alternative to alternative facts?

[h2oface]

I love this move. I like any move these days. This was a 103 loss team! There is hardly any move that could not be an improvement, and this is a minor minor move, so hard to not give it a "may as well".

 

Abad - super lucky in Minnesota and fools gold. Kintzler is too. Especially in the closers roll.

[The Wise One]

 

theres a big difference between Light and Chargois

So what. the point you clearly missed is that either pitcher would be claimed.

[The Wise One]

If someone wants to claim Jim Hoey Light, let 'em.

 

 

In the end, someone did want Light. If he becomes a useful player it is not the Twins FO that loses sleeps, or have the coulda woulda shoulda postings. That would be the Twins fans. Edited February 11, 2017 by ChiTownTwinsFan

[Richie the Rally Goat]

So what. the point you clearly missed is that either pitcher would be claimed.

you compared Light to Chargois. It's very clear to me that Chargois would be claimed, just like you said.

 

It's still not clear to me Light would be claimed. He was traded for cash which makes him marginal to be claimed.

 

The biggest difference between the two in terms of woulda coulda shoulda is if Chargois were DFA'd I'd be pissed and with Light DFA'd I feel ambivalent

 

They aren't comparable players at this point in their careers.

Edited February 11, 2017 by Sconnie

[USAFChief]

Weird. You're fighting rather than looking it up?

RZR is not range factor. This is range factor. You won't find it on fangraphs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Range_factor

Fangraphites don't like range factor because you cannot compare people who play different positions with it. You can only compare 1B to 1B, 2B to 2B, etc. Therefore you can't roll it up into an advanced metric like UZR. But you CAN use it to compare a SS to other shortstops.

I'm reluctant to speak for Hosken, but I took his post to mean, if you are going to cite something (like RF) as the best evaluation tool to use, it would help if you would provide the data.

 

"I prefer RF, here's why, and here's Adrianza's minor league RFs." You might then go on to compare that to some relevant examples, to put the data in context.

 

In other words...I don't think it's on us to "look it up."

[specialiststeve]

 

How do scouts compare their notes to other scouts? Because you are arguing the "stats nerds" can't do that....

 

I'm not missing your point at all. You are stating something as fact, that the eyeball is better than a stat, when you can't prove that at all. Both are important, but since teams are literally paying GMs and assistants LOADS of money to implement the use of these stats, I'd guess you are wrong.

 

Actually I am not talking about the whole metric statistic system ... just the defensive ones. Here is the deal with the "stat" you are talking about... it is taken by the eye.

 

I do understand the offensive metrics are used more because they are much more reliable as are more objective.

 

I understand that teams have been using the metrics but to my understanding it is more on the offensive side than the defensive. But I am sure there is some value but my point is it appears limited in it's validity.

 

It's okay we can agree to disagree on this as I am sure the old guard likely leans my way and the new guard to your side.

[Doomtints]

 

I'm reluctant to speak for Hosken, but I took his post to mean, if you are going to cite something (like RF) as the best evaluation tool to use, it would help if you would provide the data.

"I prefer RF, here's why, and here's Adrianza's minor league RFs." You might then go on to compare that to some relevant examples, to put the data in context.

In other words...I don't think it's on us to "look it up."

 

I did not tell him to look up the data. I told him to look up the fact that what he thought was RF was not RF. I had already told him it wasn't, and he chose to argue rather than check.

Edited February 11, 2017 by Doomtints

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I did not tell him to look up the data. I told him to look up the fact that what he thought was RF was not RF. I had already told him it wasn't, and he chose to argue rather than check.

If you mean argue in the sense of presenting data to support my own impression, then sure. 

 

None of us know much if anything about Adrianza. According to Fangraphs, RZR "measures a player's range." Sure it's only Fangraphs but I think Fangraphs is reliable. We were evaluating your claim that he is an average defender. 

[Guest]

Sure it's only Fangraphs but I think Fangraphs is reliable.

 

Funny. It's like when Underdog was in his alter ego of Shoeshine Boy and he referred to himself as "Just Little Old Me."

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Actually I am not talking about the whole metric statistic system ...

 

That's the problem.  You're supposed to be using the English statistic system. 

[Doomtints]

 

If you mean argue in the sense of presenting data to support my own impression, then sure. 

 

None of us know much if anything about Adrianza. According to Fangraphs, RZR "measures a player's range." Sure it's only Fangraphs but I think Fangraphs is reliable. We were evaluating your claim that he is an average defender. 

 

Of course fangraphs is reliable. No one said it wasn't. But RZR is not RF.

 

RZR, as far as I can tell, is the component of UZR that is used for range.