Article: Falvey's First Stand

[Mike Sixel]

 

One thing I think we all can (or at least should) agree on:

 

This is the first test of Falvey and Levine. The trade, for good or bad, did not happen. Now we get to see if they were right or wrong.

 

- If Dozier is a 5 WAR player in 2017 (or on his way at the break), Falvey was right.

 

- If De Leon is a negative WAR player in 2017 or back in the minors, Falvey was (likely) right. Final judgment on De Leon will take time.

 

- If Dozier is a .700 OPS player in 2017 (or on his way at the break), Falvey was wrong.

 

- If De Leon is a 4 WAR player in 2017, Falvey was wrong.

 

Of course, there are combinations that muddy the situation (a good/good or bad/bad outcome) but overall, the scouting and decision-making acumen of Falvey and Levine should make themselves apparent in relatively short order. That will not definitively declare whether they're awesome or terrible at their jobs but they'll be the first real indications of what to expect in coming years.

 

couldn't disagree more. De Leon is about 2018 and beyond, not 2017. the Rays might hold him back, to, you know, not start his clock this year, for example....or to slow his clock. Judging a trade about a SP prospect in year 1 seems all kind of wrong. All kind of wrong.

 

And, frankly, what dozier does this year, unless he hits like Bonds and draws hundreds of thousands of fans, is probably meaningless in the context of the Twins being good in 2018 and beyond....

[Mike Sixel]

 

You spent it all on Tootsie Rolls and Twinkies, didn't you?

 

Beer and wine, but that's about the same *

 

*not really, we bought a business last year, paying off some debt

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

couldn't disagree more. De Leon is about 2018 and beyond, not 2017. the Rays might hold him back, to, you know, not start his clock this year, for example....or to slow his clock. Judging a trade about a SP prospect in year 1 seems all kind of wrong. All kind of wrong.

 

And, frankly, what dozier does this year, unless he hits like Bonds and draws hundreds of thousands of fans, is probably meaningless in the context of the Twins being good in 2018 and beyond....

I think De Leon's performance in 2017 very much matters, as he's entering his age 24 season and will likely spend most or all of 2017 on an MLB roster.

 

To put it differently, does Jose Berrios' 2017 matter? Of course it does, and Berrios is a full two years younger than De Leon. If either player stumbles badly in 2017, does it mean their career is over? No, definitely not... But if a 24 year old pitching prospect posts 100+ really bad innings, that prospect's future is rightly called into question.

 

As for Dozier, his 2017 performance isn't about drawing fans (well, probably not, anyway), it's about establishing future value. Another 5 WAR season out of Dozier and we'll no longer be squabbling whether he's the 7th or 9th best second baseman in the game, we'll be arguing whether he's the 2nd or 3rd best second baseman in the game.

 

The only knock on Dozier right now is that he's coming off a career year. If he storms out out of the gate in 2017, that's no longer in question and no one will be able to deny he's one of the best middle infielders in all of baseball.

 

And that means Dozier is worth a hell of a lot, even if he's down to 1.5 years of controlled service time.

[wsnydes]

 

Beer and wine, but that's about the same *

 

*not really, we bought a business last year, paying off some debt

Cool!  Good luck.  Hopefully it all pays off for you in the end!  

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think De Leon's performance in 2017 very much matters, as he's entering his age 24 season and will likely spend most or all of 2017 on an MLB roster.

 

To put it differently, does Jose Berrios' 2017 matter? Of course it does, and Berrios is a full two years younger than De Leon. If either player stumbles badly in 2017, does it mean their career is over? No, definitely not... But if a 24 year old pitching prospect posts 100+ really bad innings, that prospect's future is rightly called into question.

 

As for Dozier, his 2017 performance isn't about drawing fans (well, probably not, anyway), it's about establishing future value. Another 5 WAR season out of Dozier and we'll no longer be squabbling whether he's the 7th or 9th best second baseman in the game, we'll be arguing whether he's the 2nd or 3rd best second baseman in the game.

 

The only knock on Dozier right now is that he's coming off a career year. If he storms out out of the gate in 2017, that's no longer in question and no one will be able to deny he's one of the best middle infielders in all of baseball.

 

And that means Dozier is worth a hell of a lot, even if he's down to 1.5 years of controlled service time.

 

Of course 2017 matters, that's not how I read your post at all. 

 

And, I truly believe the Rays might keep JDL down longer than expected, to slow his service clock. They aren't winning much this year.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Of course 2017 matters, that's not how I read your post at all. 

 

And, I truly believe the Rays might keep JDL down longer than expected, to slow his service clock. They aren't winning much this year.....

Fair enough, that's why I typed the bolded. I hoped it would convey my general point that De Leon's 2017 was not the be all, end all of his career.

 

"If De Leon is a negative WAR player in 2017 or back in the minors, Falvey was (likely) right. Final judgment on De Leon will take time."

[Doomtints]

 

Of course 2017 matters, that's not how I read your post at all. 

 

And, I truly believe the Rays might keep JDL down longer than expected, to slow his service clock. They aren't winning much this year.....

 

De Leon is on the Rays 25-man roster. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

De Leon is on the Rays 25-man roster. 

 

Dan San is on our's*....doesn't mean anything until April. 

 

*I think he's on the Twins', no idea, frankly.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[Doomtints]

 

Dan San is on our's*....doesn't mean anything until April. 

 

*I think he's on the Twins', no idea, frankly.

 

Well, it means the clock is already ticking on De Leon so they can't delay his service time.  

[Doomtints]

Here is an interesting view. We keep hearing here, "Wow, this is all the Twins could have gotten for the great Dozier?" Well how about this opinion on a 3rd party (NY Mets) website:

 

"Although trading a top pitching prospect is always gonna be painful, this does seem like a win/win trade on paper. Dodgers may have overpaid, but they're getting a quality player back in return. I'm just a little surprised that this is all you can get for a top pitching prospect in the current market."

 

This is the opposite opinion. "Wow, this is all you can get for a top pitching prospect?"

[Otto von Ballpark]

De Leon is on the Rays 25-man roster.

There is no 25 man roster right now. Just 40-man. Nobody is accumulating service time.

 

And when the season begins and service time starts counting again, De Leon will not gain MLB service time if the Rays choose to send him on optional assignment to the minor leagues.

[gunnarthor]

 

Here is an interesting view. We keep hearing here, "Wow, this is all the Twins could have gotten for the great Dozier?" Well how about this opinion on a 3rd party (NY Mets) website:

 

"Although trading a top pitching prospect is always gonna be painful, this does seem like a win/win trade on paper. Dodgers may have overpaid, but they're getting a quality player back in return. I'm just a little surprised that this is all you can get for a top pitching prospect in the current market."

 

This is the opposite opinion. "Wow, this is all you can get for a top pitching prospect?"

How you feel about De Leon is going to greatly alter your view.  I was never very high on him b/c of his shoulder soreness.  Klaw's ranking him in the 70s seems to reflect that as did fangraphs (and others) noting he was not their top pitching prospect.  However, if you think De Leon is a difference maker, you look at this differently.

[jimmer]

Quick version, last year was the only surprise year for me. I correctly thought the 2015 Twins would be a winning team (and it was so nice of the people who disagreed to constantly use base runs all season to argue the season didn't matter).

 

your version of history is interesting

 

Not everyone was using baseruns as the only reason to explain why the talent wasnt as good as the record and no one was saying the record didnt matter. I remember everyone enjoying the winning. Along with pointing out the record we had in May was way out of whack with the rest of our season, many said the overall record didnt give us a true evaluation on talent due to us having good sequencing. Thats how we could be middle of the road,in the AL, for scoring runs, even though when looking at team offensive numbers like obp and ops and such, they were bottom 3rd.

 

But anyway, then you coninued to laugh at those people dismissing their opinions about the talent level during the offseason before last season when they said they would have a losing record this year. You were said playoffs/playoff contenders. How did that work out?

 

Btw, I noticed you pointed to baseruns yourself recently to say we werent as bad last season as our record said. Its interesting

Edited January 26, 2017 by jimmer

[alarp33]

 

De Leon is on the Rays 25-man roster. 

 

What does this mean? It's January

[Doomtints]

 

How you feel about De Leon is going to greatly alter your view.  I was never very high on him b/c of his shoulder soreness.  Klaw's ranking him in the 70s seems to reflect that as did fangraphs (and others) noting he was not their top pitching prospect.  However, if you think De Leon is a difference maker, you look at this differently.

 

If he is their #2 or #3 prospect instead of their number 1, does this make him worthless? How does he compare to Gonsalves, the current Twins #1?

[jimmer]

One thing I think we all can (or at least should) agree on:

 

This is the first test of Falvey and Levine. The trade, for good or bad, did not happen. Now we get to see if they were right or wrong.

 

- If Dozier is a 5 WAR player in 2017 (or on his way at the break), Falvey was right.

 

- If De Leon is a negative WAR player in 2017 or back in the minors, Falvey was (likely) right. Final judgment on De Leon will take time.

 

- If Dozier is a .700 OPS player in 2017 (or on his way at the break), Falvey was wrong.

 

- If De Leon is a 4 WAR player in 2017, Falvey was wrong.

 

Of course, there are combinations that muddy the situation (a good/good or bad/bad outcome) but overall, the scouting and decision-making acumen of Falvey and Levine should make themselves apparent in relatively short order. That will not definitively declare whether they're awesome or terrible at their jobs but they'll be the first real indications of what to expect in coming years.

I think it would be interesting to say our FO was right if, in season one of six controllable seasons, De Leon was bad. That would be holding De Leon to a standard many/most havent been willing to do with our own prospects and doing it in a season where we arent going to be contending any way. Edited January 26, 2017 by jimmer

[ashbury]

De Leon is on the Rays 25-man roster. 

Backing up an earlier comment, I'm not sure there is even such an official entity during an offseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think it would be interesting to say our FO was right if, in season one of six controllable seasons, De Leon was bad. That would be holding De Leon to a standard many/most havent been willing to do with our own prospects and doing it in a season where we arent going to be contending any way.

That's why I added "Final judgment on De Leon will take time." at the end of the statement.

 

But a bad start to his career at 24 years old drops his stock and it drops it a lot. De Leon is somewhat old-ish for a top 50 pitching prospect graduating to MLB.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects/#qfCshjziGkwLKoQD.97

 

On BA's preseason prospect list from last season, only three prospects in the top 50 were 24 years or older. Seven in the top 100 were 24 years or older.

 

Plenty of people have questions about Berrios because he pitched 55-ish bad innings as a 22 year old.

[jimmer]

That's why I added "Final judgment on De Leon will take time." at the end of the statement.

 

But a bad start to his career at 24 years old drops his stock and it drops it a lot. De Leon is somewhat old-ish for a top 50 pitching prospect graduating to MLB.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects/#qfCshjziGkwLKoQD.97

 

On BA's preseason prospect list from last season, only three prospects in the top 50 were 24 years or older. Seven in the top 100 were 24 years or older.

 

Plenty of people have questions about Berrios because he pitched 55-ish bad innings as a 22 year old.

nitpick. I keep reading top 50 pitching prospect. He is a top 50 overall prospect and most listings i have seen have him top 10 pitching prospect. Edited January 26, 2017 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

nitpick. I keep reading top 50 pitching prospect. He is a top 50 overall prospect and most have him top 10 pitching prospect.

I meant top 50 overall prospect. Pitching slipped in there somehow.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Beer and wine, but that's about the same *

 

*not really, we bought a business last year, paying off some debt

 

So you bought a liquor store?  Any Twins Daily discounts?  We may need them come July

[Mike Sixel]

 

So you bought a liquor store?  Any Twins Daily discounts?  We may need them come July

 

given the double posts, it looks like you already started!

 

Nope, if I was buying a liquor store, it wouldn't be in Oregon. Prices are regulated, and other stuff. They are open on sunday though, so that's nice....

[wsnydes]

 

So you bought a liquor store?  Any Twins Daily discounts?  We may need them come July

Discounts may come in handy for this coming season.  Unfortunately for Mike, that wouldn't be very profitable for him.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

given the double posts, it looks like you already started!

 

Nope, if I was buying a liquor store, it wouldn't be in Oregon. Prices are regulated, and other stuff. They are open on sunday though, so that's nice....

 

That's what posting from an airport does... it didn't register that it posted...  Now that said, I am flying first class today sooooo........

[Mike Sixel]

 

Discounts may come in handy for this coming season.  Unfortunately for Mike, that wouldn't be very profitable for him.  

 

My wife and I are doing the home show in a few weeks. We are going with 5+5 as a promotion:

 

5% off, and 5% to charity.

 

I think. We were drinking while discussing that.....

 

edit: I always wonder, if I do change my mind, and run for office, will this kind of joke hurt me from getting that 3rd vote (besides me and my wife)?

Edited January 26, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[wsnydes]

 

My wife and I are doing the home show in a few weeks. We are going with 5+5 as a promotion:

 

5% off, and 5% to charity.

 

I think. We were drinking while discussing that.....

 

edit: I always wonder, if I do change my mind, and run for office, will this kind of joke hurt me from getting that 3rd vote (besides me and my wife)?

Your drunken decision making doesn't appear to be as poor as mine can be.  Last time my wife and I had happy hour at home I ended up buying a $90 Hootie and the Blowfish record on Amazon.  So I think you'll be okay finding that third vote, and perhaps a few more.

 

I, on the other hand...

[gunnarthor]

 

If he is their #2 or #3 prospect instead of their number 1, does this make him worthless? How does he compare to Gonsalves, the current Twins #1?

Gonsalves isn't our #1 and, at least according to Klaw, Gonsalves and De Leon's rankings aren't that far apart.

[gunnarthor]

 

Btw, I noticed you pointed to baseruns yourself recently to say we werent as bad last season as our record said. Its interesting

That's true, I did use baseruns.  And when I used it I said if you used baseruns in 2015, then in fairness the 2016 team wasn't as bad. 

[gunnarthor]

 

That's what posting from an airport does... it didn't register that it posted...  Now that said, I am flying first class today sooooo........

Fancy man.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's what posting from an airport does... it didn't register that it posted...  Now that said, I am flying first class today sooooo........

 

Nice humble brag, btw.

 

edit: ninja'd