Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[CiabanItReal]

 

I don't think it has anything to do with the Young trade.  Friedman and the Dodgers in general just seem pretty conservative about losing talent.  Note that the big-spending Dodgers have yet to forfeit a draft pick in the qualifying offer era, much less trade elite prospects.  And I can't blame them -- it's a lot easier to recover from a bad contract than it is to recover from lost talent.

 

Seems like that is the general approach of the Yankees and Cubs now too.  It's too bad we didn't have an asset that appealed more to Boston or Washington this winter, or even Houston or Texas...

Though they were willing to give one up to sign Iwakuma, the deal fell through after his medical though.

[AZTwin]

Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but for a third guy behind JDL and Alvarez, I'm probably OK with it

Lol that was my thought too. I was wondering if he was on my side of the argument

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He is fun to read about, but limited. From Truebluela.com: "Calhoun’s power is currently pull heavy; all of his 2015 professional home runs went to right field, almost exclusively right down the foul line"

 

from todaysknuckelball.com: "Compounding his issues as a potential third baseman or outfielder is his limited arm strength compared to most major league-level players."

 

His (unlikely) ceiling reads Juan Uribe without the versatility. Juan Uribe was a nice player for a good deal of time. Calhoun's strengths are equalled or surpassed by his flaws

I don't know about the location of his HR, but he only hit 11 in half a season in 2015, it wasn't a big sample.  What does that same evaluator say about him after his 27 HR in 2016?

 

Juan Uribe is a weird comp.  RHB, below average walk rate, average K rate, average power. Compared to Calhoun's profile of LHB, average walk rate, well below average K rate, and above average power. They are completely different players. One was a defensive prospect, the other is an offensive prospect.

 

No prospect evaluator would be putting Calhoun on top 100 lists, or giving him 50 FV, if his offensive "ceiling" was Juan Uribe. Even if you don't like Calhoun, that seems a pretty gross misapplication of the word/concept of "ceiling" in a prospect discussion.

[AZTwin]

I don't know about the location of his HR, but he only hit 11 in half a season in 2015, it wasn't a big sample. What does that same evaluator say about him after his 27 HR in 2016?

 

Juan Uribe is a weird comp. RHB, below average walk rate, average K rate, average power. Compared to Calhoun's profile of LHB, average walk rate, well below average K rate, and above average power. They are completely different players. One was a defensive prospect, the other is an offensive prospect.

 

No prospect evaluator would be putting Calhoun on top 100 lists, or giving him 50 FV, if his offensive "ceiling" was Juan Uribe. Even if you don't like Calhoun, that seems a pretty gross misapplication of the word/concept of "ceiling" in a prospect discussion.

I don't know. Talent evaluators see home runs and being young for the league and you get on lists. Everyone in their right mind always knew Mike Restovich couldn't hit offspeed pitches and wouldn't succeed at the major league level, yet he was a top 20 prospect. There are a lot of these instances. They fall in love with 1 tool and don't evaluate the entire baseball player

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ha!  Good Point!  Should have been more clear.  I don't think he should be totally dismissed as part of a larger package.  Need to have at least one DH option that won't strike out 30% of the time.

Yeah, strikeouts aren't necessarily bad, but you have to be able to make up for it in your other PA.  A lot of guys can't.  Or, if they try to cut down on their K's, they lose their power.

 

I think that's why Calhoun is interesting, and more interesting than your run-of-the-mill minor league slugger.  The guy has made a lot of contact without sacrificing power.

[DodgerFan1234]

Anybody want to join me on February 2nd in Punxsutawney to see if we'll have 6 more weeks of Dozier?

[nicksaviking]

 

I would think TX would want ESan.....not sure why there is no steam there. Heck, Houston should want ESan also.

 

Could be the Twins are waiting the Dozier situation out first to see how much SP depth   (LOL, yes I just typed that!) the team has.

 

I'd move him regardless but perhaps in the Twins eyes they'd prefer to keep him if they don't get the ready-made arm(s) from the Dodgers they want.

[Strato Guy]

I would rather have someone who is better defensively than Calhoun. It seems apparent that DH will be his best position. The Twins, and it seems a lot of teams, have plenty of guys whom can hit, but are not that good in the field. Shortstops in particular are generally good athletes who can play other positions if they don't pan out as shortstops. With the Dodgers entrenched with Seager, they might be willing to part with Brito or Lux. They have one other SS in their system, who I called recall right now, who seems promising as well.

[DodgerFan1234]

 

I would think TX would want ESan.....not sure why there is no steam there. Heck, Houston should want ESan also.

Any more specifics on "cave'?  From where? Dave's JDL/Alvarez or from every other source's of JDL+(non Alvarez/Buehler/Bellinger)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't know. Talent evaluators see home runs and being young for the league and you get on lists. Everyone in their right mind always knew Mike Restovich couldn't hit offspeed pitches and wouldn't succeed at the major league level, yet he was a top 20 prospect. There are a lot of these instances. They fall in love with 1 tool and don't evaluate the entire baseball player

I recommend that you read Eric Longenhagen's write up on Calhoun at Fangraphs:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers/

 

That in no way reads like a guy who isn't evaluating the entire baseball player.

 

A lot has changed in prospect evaluation since the days of Mike Restovich.  Heck, I don't even think BA was considering league/park factors much -- they ranked him as high as #26, before dropping him out of the top 100 entirely when he not surprisingly failed to hit many HR in the FSL, but then put him back as high as #37 after he hit a few more HR in the PCL a couple years later:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=restov001mic

[ashbury]

Shortstops in particular are generally good athletes who can play other positions if they don't pan out as shortstops.

There is a rumor going around that the Dodgers are in negotiations to acquire just such a player.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would rather have someone who is better defensively than Calhoun. It seems apparent that DH will be his best position. The Twins, and it seems a lot of teams, have plenty of guys whom can hit, but are not that good in the field.

Not necessarily.  Vargas has a career 103 OPS+, Grossman 102. Park had a 83 last year.  Mauer has posted a 103 since his concussion.  That doesn't really cut it at DH/1B.

 

If Calhoun's profile suggests he can be a ~120 OPS+ guy, that has real value. If someone else steps up to fill our DH spot sooner, that's still an asset we can deal to other teams.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Could be the Twins are waiting the Dozier situation out first to see how the SP depth   (LOL, yes I just typed that!) the team has.

 

I'd move him regardless but perhaps in the Twins eyes they'd prefer to keep him if they don't get the ready-made arm(s) from the Dodgers they want.

 

I've got to think this is it. Depth wise right now, they have the following:

 

Santana, Santiago, Gibson, May, Hughes?????, Berrios, Duffey.  Gonsalves needs time in AAA.  Jay, Stewart, and Jorge need more time in AA. Throw JDL and Stewart into it, and suddenly Santiago and Santana are very expendable. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't know. Talent evaluators see home runs and being young for the league and you get on lists. Everyone in their right mind always knew Mike Restovich couldn't hit offspeed pitches and wouldn't succeed at the major league level, yet he was a top 20 prospect. There are a lot of these instances. They fall in love with 1 tool and don't evaluate the entire baseball player

 

you keep quoting that anecdote to prove that talent evaluators have no skill.....even if they are wrong sometimes, that does not make them bad at their job.

 

And, clearly, not everyone knew he would suck, or they would not have rated him highly. Frankly, you might want to come up with another line, or some more data. There have actually been studies done, you may be surprised to find that being a highly rated prospect and success is highly correlated.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't know about the location of his HR, but he only hit 11 in half a season in 2015, it wasn't a big sample.  What does that same evaluator say about him after his 27 HR in 2016?

And he turned 22 two months ago. He's 13 months younger than Buxton.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Why haven't the Anaheim Angels become involved in these discussions for Dozier. He would be a very good leadoff hitter for them and a great compliment to Mike Trout in the batting order? Allows Trout to see more pitches he can hit for power. All Star second basemen, snatches him away from the Dodger as suitors. Wonder why we have not heard any rumblings that the Angels are involved with catching, pitching and short stop prospects. 

The Angels have no prospects?  Nothing in the MLB top 100 right now.  Their best guys might be C+/B- on Sickels scale.  They quite possibly do not have a combination of guys that could rival the value of De Leon alone.

 

EDIT: Also, forgot about Espinosa whom they just acquired.  Probably the best 2B they could afford.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Why haven't the Anaheim Angels become involved in these discussions for Dozier. He would be a very good leadoff hitter for them and a great compliment to Mike Trout in the batting order? Allows Trout to see more pitches he can hit for power. All Star second basemen, snatches him away from the Dodger as suitors. Wonder why we have not heard any rumblings that the Angels are involved with catching, pitching and short stop prospects. 

 

because their farm system is (to put it nicely) awful.

[Strato Guy]

 

Not necessarily.  Vargas has a career 103 OPS+, Grossman 102. Park had a 83 last year.  Mauer has posted a 103 since his concussion.  That doesn't really cut it at DH/1B.

 

If Calhoun's profile suggests he can be a ~120 OPS+ guy, that has real value. If someone else steps up to fill our DH spot sooner, that's still an asset we can deal to other teams.

Yes, the Twins are bad and need to improve at many positions. If guys like Vargas and Grossman don't hit, they aren't worthy of being on the team because of their lack of defense ability. Mauer is in the twilight of his career and maybe should be platooned. Park, on the other hand could end up being pretty good. Time will tell.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes, the Twins are bad and need to improve at many positions. If guys like Vargas and Grossman don't hit, they aren't worthy of being on the team because of their lack of defense ability. Mauer is in the twilight of his career and maybe should be platooned. Park, on the other hand could end up being pretty good. Time will tell.

 

Don't forget, Park is already 30......he was a short term play, a bet that 2015 was not luck driven.

[DaveW]

 

FWIW: Doogie on 1500 ESPN said today that the Twins believe the Dodgers will ultimately "cave" and add more to their Dozier trade proposal.

LOL yeah this is all basically setting up as:

 

Twins trade Dozier for Alvarez+JDL+AAAA player.

As soon as it happens the Twins will spin it as "We held out and "won" the trade because we got them to include Alvarez" when in fact Alvarez was always in the deal to begin with.

These Twins "leaks" thus far are pretty funny tbh, the Angels being "in" on it, the Twins asking for final offers and The Twins putting a timeline on it for this week are all such obvious spin jobs coming from the FO. I don't know another franchise that does thing this obviously tbh.

[crapforks]

 

I don't know about the location of his HR, but he only hit 11 in half a season in 2015, it wasn't a big sample.  What does that same evaluator say about him after his 27 HR in 2016?

 

Juan Uribe is a weird comp.  RHB, below average walk rate, average K rate, average power. Compared to Calhoun's profile of LHB, average walk rate, well below average K rate, and above average power. They are completely different players. One was a defensive prospect, the other is an offensive prospect.

 

No prospect evaluator would be putting Calhoun on top 100 lists, or giving him 50 FV, if his offensive "ceiling" was Juan Uribe. Even if you don't like Calhoun, that seems a pretty gross misapplication of the word/concept of "ceiling" in a prospect discussion.

I agree. It was a bad example, but I was reading about him all day. Many mentions of him "not getting cheated" and his "short, stout build" (paraphrased) had me picturing Uribe at the plate. Uribe was valuable defensively, and had a very quick hard swing. The comparison sucked. But a AA prospect with Uribe as a comp (not a ceiling) would probably be a top 100 guy, IMO.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

LOL yeah this is all basically setting up as:

 

Twins trade Dozier for Alvarez+JDL+AAAA player.

As soon as it happens the Twins will spin it as "We held out and "won" the trade because we got them to include Alvarez" when in fact Alvarez was always in the deal to begin with.

These Twins "leaks" thus far are pretty funny tbh, the Angels being "in" on it, the Twins asking for final offers and The Twins putting a timeline on it for this week are all such obvious spin jobs coming from the FO. I don't know another franchise that does thing this obviously tbh.

don't know if you have answered this somewhere, but what is your opinion of Alvarez (or at least of the videos discussion and scouting reports you have seen and read).

[TyTY23]

 

Why haven't the Anaheim Angels become involved in these discussions for Dozier. He would be a very good leadoff hitter for them and a great compliment to Mike Trout in the batting order? Allows Trout to see more pitches he can hit for power. All Star second basemen, snatches him away from the Dodger as suitors. Wonder why we have not heard any rumblings that the Angels are involved with catching, pitching and short stop prospects. 

Maybe because the Angels has a really bad farm system. 

[TyTY23]

 

LOL yeah this is all basically setting up as:

 

Twins trade Dozier for Alvarez+JDL+AAAA player.

As soon as it happens the Twins will spin it as "We held out and "won" the trade because we got them to include Alvarez" when in fact Alvarez was always in the deal to begin with.

These Twins "leaks" thus far are pretty funny tbh, the Angels being "in" on it, the Twins asking for final offers and The Twins putting a timeline on it for this week are all such obvious spin jobs coming from the FO. I don't know another franchise that does thing this obviously tbh.

Sorry to break it to you but every team does this. Its just part of the dance. 

[doscinco]

And he turned 22 two months ago. He's 13 months younger than Buxton.

Willie Calhoun was drafted in 2015. Didn't start playing in the Dodgers minors until July

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Sometimes this editor is frustrating.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Though they were willing to give one up to sign Iwakuma, the deal fell through after his medical though.

At the time, they had gotten an extra pick for Greinke and thought they were going to get one for Anderson and Kendrick too until that plan backfired.  

[HawkeyeDodger]

I don't know how many of you watched the AFL All-Star game when Calhoun was MVP.  The ball definitely jumps off his bat.  Unfortunately, he got zero action while he was out in the field on defense.  Obviously, too small of a sample to draw any conclusions, but it would have been nice to see him in on more defensive plays to see how he moves and throws.  

[puddle]

 

Why haven't the Anaheim Angels become involved in these discussions for Dozier. He would be a very good leadoff hitter for them and a great compliment to Mike Trout in the batting order? Allows Trout to see more pitches he can hit for power. All Star second basemen, snatches him away from the Dodger as suitors. Wonder why we have not heard any rumblings that the Angels are involved with catching, pitching and short stop prospects. 

Because the Angels have probably one of the worst 3 farm systems in baseball

[HawkeyeDodger]

The guy who broke the signings of Turner and Jansen has tweeted that the Dodgers have set this weekend as a deadline to get this deal done.