DaveW: Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours

[nytwinsfan]

 

It's way too much for Dozier.  I've run it by some Dodgers fans and no one buys it or should I say no one would be happy about it.  The Dodgers paid $16 million to sign Alvarez.  After one minor league season at rookie and low A level where he excelled, I have a hard time believing he is the second piece for a ..250 hitter. No offense to Dozier.  He had a great season.  If the Twins got offered Deleon and Stewart, I would jump at it if I was the Twins GM.  Now the guy who broke the Turner and Jansen signings last night has sources that we can't doubt.  Chris Carello broke all of it last evening long before MLBTR and all of the talking heads got a hold of it. 

 

The Dodgers have some roster shuffling to do in order to make room for JT and KJ.  They only have one spot open right now.  Of course a trade for Dozier that includes at least 2 guys on the 40 man roster would fix that.

First, the Dodgers paid close to $32 million for Alvarez, because of penalties for going over the threshold.

 

Also, a .250 hitter? Really? That's how you characterize/see Dozier? Do you reject the idea that walks are worth more than making an out? Are you indifferent whether a player hits a single or a home run? Really? Because when you characterize Dozier as the guy who is a ".250 hitter" that is what I am led to assume. I'm sorry if this comes off as being a jerk, but I really don't know how else to react. 

[DaveW]

 

No teams were interested in Puig at all during the trade deadline. His value is at probably its lowest ever for 2 reasons, look at his stats the last few years and he is a pain to teammates. Sure, you could get him with the part of a better 3rd prospect and hope like hell he performs and does not cause problems. But do you really want to gamble like that when he will be owed $17.4M for the next 2 years? I would have to say pass on Puig.

The Twins have zero interest in Puig.


I actually think he is a fantastic buy low candidate, perhaps the best I have seen in 10+ years. However perhaps Minnesota on a team that will likely lose 90+ games next year isn't the best place for him anyways.

[DaveW]

 

You are correct.  They are never in all-in mode. 

The Crawford, Gonzalez, Beckett trade indicates differently IMO, that is about as all in of a mode as you can be. They took on two horrendous contracts in order to get a solid 1st baseman (and Nick Punto)

[DaveW]

 

Seems like the easy solution is to tell the Dodgers that we will take Puig and his contract if they upgrade the 3rd piece to a legit prospect. He's not going to be worse than Rosario, and if he comes out strong he can be flipped at the deadline for another piece if the clubhouse issues are too much to deal with.

Easier said then done, I think it would be a tough sell to the Pohlads to take on money, additionally, as much as I like Puig, there is a more than zero chance he could poison the well for a "young team" if things aren't going well out of the gate.

If this was OOTP baseball? I would take Puig 7 days a week, if I were GM of the Twins I would probably take him because I personally like it when teams roll the dice. However, I TOTALLY get why the Twins current brass have little to no interest in Puig at this point.

With that said, watch my source be completely wrong and Puig gets shipped over in the deal

[Physics Guy]

 

I am starting to wonder if Dozier is even good for the Dodgers budget, longer term when they will subject to the luxury tax. Yeah, he's inexpensive now, but he's either gone or expensive (or bad) in 2 years.

Prospects seem to be the one way they can keep that payroll at least somewhat under control, which suggests why they might be reluctant to part with too many prospects for this particular player.

By the time Dozier's relatively inexpensive contract is over after 2018, the Dodgers will clear about $80M in other salaries such as Gonzalez, Ethier, McCarthy, Kazmir and a few others.    They would have plenty of cash to resign him if he is still producing.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I think what you quoted was worded poorly. DaveW has been saying forever (since this thread started) that Alvarez and De Leon are agreed upon, and the other piece or two are being discussed. So, his offer is 3 or 4 total players, already including Alvarez and De Leon. Not 6 total players.
I don't know if Alvarez is up in the discussions or not, just wanted to clear up what DaveW said the offer was

I'm not sure where you think I'm getting 6 players.  Dave has been extremely clear.

[Oxtung]

 

By the time Dozier's relatively inexpensive contract is over after 2018, the Dodgers will clear about $80M in other salaries such as Gonzalez, Ethier, McCarthy, Kazmir and a few others.    They would have plenty of cash to resign him if he is still producing.

 

They have to replace all those players as well though and FA salaries are only increasing (and rapidly). Some of those players will probably be replaced internally (for instance Gonzalez by Bellinger perhaps) but certainly some of those will come from outside the organization as well. Also Kershaw can opt out after 2018. There are also some BIG names potentially hitting the FA market in the next few years I imagine the Dodgers will want to be in on.

 

Long and short, while the Dodgers could sign Dozier to an extension I'm not sure they'll want to spend the money on him and the prospects could be used to replace more of those veterans freeing up more cash to entice Machado, Harper, etc...

[darin617]

 

The Twins have zero interest in Puig.


I actually think he is a fantastic buy low candidate, perhaps the best I have seen in 10+ years. However perhaps Minnesota on a team that will likely lose 90+ games next year isn't the best place for him anyways.

 

not a buy low guy when owed $17.4M over 2 years I believe.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

First, the Dodgers paid close to $32 million for Alvarez, because of penalties for going over the threshold.

 

Also, a .250 hitter? Really? That's how you characterize/see Dozier? Do you reject the idea that walks are worth more than making an out? Are you indifferent whether a player hits a single or a home run? Really? Because when you characterize Dozier as the guy who is a ".250 hitter" that is what I am led to assume. I'm sorry if this comes off as being a jerk, but I really don't know how else to react. 

Dialogue is good so I don't think you sound like a jerk, but Dozier is a career .243 hitter, with excellent power, and slightly above average defense.  Yes, I acknowledged he draws walks.  He's not Schoop from Baltimore, but his career OBP is .320 and it was just a tick over .300 two years ago.  Until last year his batting avg sat between .236 and .244 with an OPS of .about .750.  So, believe me there is reason to be cautious about overpaying for Dozier.  He won't hit 40+ bombs at Dodger Stadium.  It ain't happening nor should it be the expectation if they acquire him.  His defense is much better than Uggla's but I hope you can understand the comparison by some.  Of course no one expects him to completely lose it like Uggla did.  To me he looks a lot offensively like Grandal, but he can steal some bases and play 2B.  It's hard to tell if he's trending up or that was his peak season last year.  That is the million dollar question for the Dodgers front office to figure out if they're going to put prospects like Deleon and Alvarez on the table. Like I said in an earlier post, fans  tend to over value their own players and undervalue the other teams players on every message board including us Dodgers fans.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

The Crawford, Gonzalez, Beckett trade indicates differently IMO, that is about as all in of a mode as you can be. They took on two horrendous contracts in order to get a solid 1st baseman (and Nick Punto)

Good point, but two different situations altogether.  That was just after the new ownership had bought the team from a bankrupt owner who had driven the fans out of the stadium.  MLB had the largest stadium in baseball more than half empty.  The new owners had nothing in the minors except a few guys at the lowest levels.  They spent money with that trade to put fans back in the seats while they rebuilt their minors. It was more of an extension of the purchase of the team.

 

 The Dodgers didn't have the luxury of tanking like the Cubs and Mets to rebuild.  The last few years they have not pushed their chips all in and dealt guys like Seager, Pederson, and Urias when Hamels, Price, and Sale were available.  The new ownership is very dedicated to not winding up like the Phillies the last few years.  The team will stay competitive long-term by replacing Gonzalez with Bellinger.  Ethier and Crawford are off the book after this year.  Kazmir, McCarthy, Gonzalez, and Ryu after 2018.  All teams want to have flexibility for the FA class following the 2018 season so the Dodgers haven't gone all in like the Cubs did when they traded for Chapman.  

[operation mindcrime]

We should demand their international bonus pool for next July! \m/

[twins_89]

For me there is no way I'd trade Dozier for less than a couple of top prospects. From the Dodgers those players would have to come from the Bellinger/De Leon/Alvarez/Verdugo since there is a drop off after the those four. I'd pass on any deal that didn't include two of those players (and based on surplus value arguments from earlier in the thread it's a very reasonable position).

 

Over the last 3 seasons Dozier has the 15th best WAR for all position player in baseball. Combine that with an incredibly bargain contract and I find it hard to believe that one good prospect and a few lesser pieces is a fair return.

[beckmt]

 

not a buy low guy when owed $17.4M over 2 years I believe.

That is a relatively low price for a major league outfielder who produces at an average to above average offense and an average defense.  Would not touch him, because of the clubhouse issues, but still if Dodgers want to move that contract to upgrade prospects, could see taking a flyer on it.

[beckmt]

 

Dialogue is good so I don't think you sound like a jerk, but Dozier is a career .243 hitter, with excellent power, and slightly above average defense.  Yes, I acknowledged he draws walks.  He's not Schoop from Baltimore, but his career OBP is .320 and it was just a tick over .300 two years ago.  Until last year his batting avg sat between .236 and .244 with an OPS of .about .750.  So, believe me there is reason to be cautious about overpaying for Dozier.  He won't hit 40+ bombs at Dodger Stadium.  It ain't happening nor should it be the expectation if they acquire him.  His defense is much better than Uggla's but I hope you can understand the comparison by some.  Of course no one expects him to completely lose it like Uggla did.  To me he looks a lot offensively like Grandal, but he can steal some bases and play 2B.  It's hard to tell if he's trending up or that was his peak season last year.  That is the million dollar question for the Dodgers front office to figure out if they're going to put prospects like Deleon and Alvarez on the table. Like I said in an earlier post, fans  tend to over value their own players and undervalue the other teams players on every message board including us Dodgers fans.

 

With an average of 5 WAR over the last 3 years, you are talking a well above average major league player, if not a star.  If he was a pitcher the price would be much higher.  If you look at the trades made this winter, you have to give up decent assets if not overpay to get a player like Dozier.  Offer from Dodgers is close to fair, I feel it may be a bit low and that could be the holdup.  All De Leon projects is to be maybe another Santana, maybe a little better.  Twins need at least one solid prospect that has #1 or #2 stuff to make this deal.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

No teams were interested in Puig at all during the trade deadline. His value is at probably its lowest ever for 2 reasons, look at his stats the last few years and he is a pain to teammates. Sure, you could get him with the part of a better 3rd prospect and hope like hell he performs and does not cause problems. But do you really want to gamble like that when he will be owed $17.4M for the next 2 years? I would have to say pass on Puig.

 

I'm not arguing any of those facts.  You're right, no one wanted him at the deadline. You're right, he's a pain and has no value. I'm arguing though that sometimes people need to mature and things like that can do that, especially with a change of scenery.  It's not my money (famous last words, I know), but I'd definitely consider taking the project and it's cost in exchange for a legit 3rd piece to the trade.  There's room on the team for him, and if he figures things out, he can be flipped for a nice piece as well. He had an OPS > .900 his first two years. If he figures out what was wrong, that becomes supremely valuable either in July or next offseason.  If he doesn't, you eat the cost. Puig wasn't the end goal, he was a means to get a better prospect.

[Platoon]

The only way I would take Puig on this team, is if I had a preordained landing spot somewhere else for him. The talent is there, but he really doesn't seem a fit here. But if he could be acquired and moved without screwing up the main goal, SP, go for it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

By the time Dozier's relatively inexpensive contract is over after 2018, the Dodgers will clear about $80M in other salaries such as Gonzalez, Ethier, McCarthy, Kazmir and a few others. They would have plenty of cash to resign him if he is still producing.

Fair enough. Still, it is a relatively short period of control, compared to Eaton and Sale anyway, and I think we have to expect a lower return.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

With an average of 5 WAR over the last 3 years, you are talking a well above average major league player, if not a star.  If he was a pitcher the price would be much higher.  If you look at the trades made this winter, you have to give up decent assets if not overpay to get a player like Dozier.  Offer from Dodgers is close to fair, I feel it may be a bit low and that could be the holdup.  All De Leon projects is to be maybe another Santana, maybe a little better.  Twins need at least one solid prospect that has #1 or #2 stuff to make this deal.

 

If as Dave says that the holdup is over pieces 3 and 4 essentially being org filler, I'm not to terribly upset that the trade hasn't been consummated... for that reason. Dozier is a pretty good player. Two top 100 guys (Alvaraz and De Leon) plus filler isn't likely worth it to the Twins. They want to rebuild the team, by all means make sure at least one more piece is a decent prospect. It doesn't need to be a top 100 guy, but definitely someone who could pan out at some point. I'd be happy to take one of their Lewis Thorpe type guys, but I want it to be a legitimate prospect. Prospects fail. They do it all the time. That's the nature of the game, which is why you need enough upside to justify the risk.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That is a relatively low price for a major league outfielder who produces at an average to above average offense and an average defense.  Would not touch him, because of the clubhouse issues, but still if Dodgers want to move that contract to upgrade prospects, could see taking a flyer on it.

 

Agreed, it's not a cost issue in my opinion. He was humbled a bit last season, so perhaps he grew up.  This would certainly add to the humiliation if LA was forced to give him away. I'd do this in that setting, taking a better 3rd prospect. 17.5M for an established player is a pretty reasonable price. There's some risk there, but given the downside is a .750 OPS player with decent defense, that's still a slightly above average player.

[Otto von Ballpark]

No teams were interested in Puig at all during the trade deadline. His value is at probably its lowest ever for 2 reasons, look at his stats the last few years and he is a pain to teammates. Sure, you could get him with the part of a better 3rd prospect and hope like hell he performs and does not cause problems. But do you really want to gamble like that when he will be owed $17.4M for the next 2 years? I would have to say pass on Puig.

No teams wanted Puig at the deadline at the Dodgers asking price. We don't know the Dodgers asking price. I'd be careful about extrapolating too much from that. Even now, when Dave reports the Twins don't want Puig for various reasons, I think a big reason not mentioned is that the Dodgers would want to get more back for including Puig.

 

If the Dodgers were willing to move Puig to whoever was willing to pay his remaining salary, I guarantee someone would have taken him off their hands already.

[HitInAPinch]

 

The issue for LA is debt service, which MLB has told them to get under control relative to overall expenses and revenue. A temporary condition, but perhaps exploitable this one off-season. Long term, yeah, LA is fine.

 

I'm dreaming, of course. But it's an example of why I would have seriously considered non-tendering Hector Santiago, for flexibility. That $8M or thereabouts matches pretty close to Puig, for this one season out of the two he has remaining, meaning we'd only have to swallow the second year's salary. Seems a more likely way to acquire a good additional prospect than by trying to trade Santiago directly. But it's a very superficial view of team finances, I am sure.

Santiago really hasn't shown much to keep him around, other than racking up innings.  I think we can to better with less expense.  Save the $8M and put it into development. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

I am starting to wonder if Dozier is even good for the Dodgers budget, longer term when they will subject to the luxury tax. Yeah, he's inexpensive now, but he's either gone or expensive (or bad) in 2 years.

Prospects seem to be the one way they can keep that payroll at least somewhat under control, which suggests why they might be reluctant to part with too many prospects for this particular player.

 

 

Their for sure window is two years.  After that, Kershaw can opt out  

 

Dozier is incredibly inexpensive and if money was their issue, they wouldn't have just spent 16M a year for 5 years for a closer.

Post trade, why would we care about what LA is / is not willing to pay Dozier?  His stats throughout his career are good enough, but last year's career year puts the Twins in a spot to have a very good asset to help push a very need system wide rebuild. 

 

I'm looking towards the future on 2 different levels:  A return of 1-2 starters that can fit into the rotations now.  I'm not counting, or even hoping, on great success.  I want them getting used to pitching against MLB hitters.  And I'd want a couple more pitchers to back-fill the Twins MiLB. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

I'm not sure if this is posted, but yahoo is cheerleading it now too!

What the Yahoo!! article also shows is the probable reason why they haven't completed the Dozier trade:  Bigger fish to fry. 

 

After spending a reported $200M for Jensen, Hill and Turner, the Dozier contract for $6 and $9M over the next 2 years seems like a no brainier for the Dodgers.  Just gotta fit in a couple pieces.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I'm not sure where you think I'm getting 6 players.  Dave has been extremely clear.

 

My bad then. The part you had originally quoted, which I was writing back about, still seemed confusing to me in how it was worded. I could see why thinking the total of players being mentioned was 5 or 6 instead of 3 or 4.

[Linus]

Didn't Puig clear waivers last summer? That gives a good idea of what his trade value is-nobody would take him with his contract meaning the Dodgers would have to eat some just to give him away.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Post trade, why would we care about what LA is / is not willing to pay Dozier?

We're still in a "pre-trade" world, and what Dozier will have to be paid, and more importantly when, will affect the likelihood of a trade and the quality of the return.

 

If the Twins are really trying to push the return beyond two very good prospects, I'm not sure the Dodgers will agree.  I imagine Dozier has a lower projection than either Eaton or Sale, and he's controlled for a shorter time -- yet if Dave's source is correct, we're essentially holding out until we can get an equal return as those guys.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Didn't Puig clear waivers last summer? That gives a good idea of what his trade value is-nobody would take him with his contract meaning the Dodgers would have to eat some just to give him away.

Puig cleared trade waivers. That doesn't mean no one was willing to take his contract for free -- there is a gentleman's agreement among clubs not to claim players unless you are willing to meet the asking price.  We don't know the Dodgers asking price -- it's quite possible they made it known they would not move him for anything less than a solid prospect, so other clubs passed on making a claim so they could continue negotiating. (Putting in a claim and letting the Dodgers pull him back would have precluded further negotiation.)

 

I'm not saying Puig has great trade value, but I think it's better than most of us are suggesting.  The Dodgers aren't giving him away -- they have no real reason to do so.

[HitInAPinch]

 

We're still in a "pre-trade" world, and what Dozier will have to be paid, and more importantly when, will affect the likelihood of a trade and the quality of the return.

 

If the Twins are really trying to push the return beyond two very good prospects, I'm not sure the Dodgers will agree.  I imagine Dozier has a lower projection than either Eaton or Sale, and he's controlled for a shorter time -- yet if Dave's source is correct, we're essentially holding out until we can get an equal return as those guys.

With an adjusted payroll of $187M+ I'm pretty sure that's not an issue the Dodgers even think about.

[kab21]

Puig is a bit like Carlos Gomez. You can see so much talent when he plays but he is so undisciplined in all aspects. If he puts it together then he is a borderline yearly all-star just Carlos Gomez was. 

I am fine with the buy low part but he needs to be the 3rd or 4th player in the deal with Deleon/Bellinger/Alvarez being the first 2 pieces).

 

I find it puzzling about this talk of 17.4/2 years to be a big deal. If they swap Dozier for Puig (financially) then the payroll is still a hair under 100M with Ervin (could be traded) and Santiago on the team. I thought we had a new FO and were sick of penny pinching.

 

Bad clubhouse guy? Whatever.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd be fine taking Puig as a dump, but i'm not sure the Dodgers want to value him that way either.

 

I really hope, now that they've made their big resignings, that we see this deal happen.  When you see their options, it makes me wonder if the Twins are really digging in their heels on that third piece because they think they have the leverage to do so.

 

I have to admit, I think they might be right.  (If that's the case)