To Protect or Not to Protect

[GMinTraining]

Player Name -  Why we should keep or release? 
Adalberto Mejia - Lefty with a Power Arm - Twins need!
Adam Walker - Game Changer - 22-5 when he hit HR
Alex Wimmers - Finally pitching to his ability - Keeper
Andrew Albers - Soft throwing Lefty / must hit spots
Brandon Kintzler - Solid Relief pitcher  - a Pressly type
Brian Dozier - Team MVP / 40+ HRs
Buddy Boshers - Had many solid games for Twins
Byron Buxton - Up and Coming
Byung-Ho Park - At Age 30 - Needs to find old stroke
Danny Santana - Versatility / Speed / Injury Prone
Eddie Rosario - Excellent Talent - Only getting better
Eduardo Escobar - Versatile infielder/Needs Opportunity
Ervin Santana - Best Pitcher / Won't find better FA
Glen Perkins - Needs to be healthy - Needs to refind
Hector Santiago - Much better when getting run support
J.T. Chargois - Closer potential - Finding Groove
James Beresford - Versatile infielder/limited bat skill set
Jason Wheeler - Made big strides - Needed call up
Joe Mauer - Have to play with salary owed
John Ryan - Murphy Solid behind dish/Needs bat to return
Jorge Polanco - Most consistent young hitter
Jose Berrios - Needs to refind his groove - Has Stuff
Juan Centeno - Solid back up - Needs to improve Def.
Kennys Vargas - 1st Baseman of the future.  Improving
Kurt Suzuki - Free Agent - Let Go
Kyle Gibson - Solid #3 who needs new approach
Logan Schafer - Free Agent - Let Go
Mason Melotakis - Injuries - Zach Jones treatment
Max Kepler - Right fielder - Only getting better
Miguel Sano - Star Potential - More relaxed at 3B
Mike Tonkin - Either way - Keep / Release
Pat Dean - Think Albers
Pat Light - Too much upside to let go (100 MPH)
Philip Hughes - Get Healthy - #3 or #4
Randy Rosario - Great Upside - smart to protect
Robbie Grossman - Free Agent - Minor leaue resign
Ryan O'Rourke - Excellent Loogy only
Ryan Pressly - Keeper - Stuff
Taylor Rogers - Keeper - Showed that he can pitch
Tommy Milone - Long Releiver - Great thru 3 innings
Trevor May - Give a chance to start - Stop See - Saw
Trevor Plouffe - Free Agent - Let Go
Tyler Duffey - Excellent Reliever   - Can uptick Velo
Yorman Landa - Great Upside - smart to protect

44 NAMES

 

Don't forget that there are probably 20 more other new guys who need to be decided upon - Protect or Not Protect?  Who would you Protect on this list or Not Protect.

[ashbury]

Small quibble: Plouffe is not a free agent, but is arbitration eligible and it could be in the team's interest to non-tender him. Same effect for your purposes. Hector Santiago is in roughly the same situation salary-wise.

[Dman]

I would take off Wimmers, Albers, Berresford, Wheeler, Suzuki, Schaefer, Dean, Milone, Ploufe.  I am not sure who all needs to be protected for next year but I think there are 5 guys I would add.  Palka, Vielma, Jorge, Garver and Granite.  Would kind of be nice if we could get rid of Mauer and Hughes but they are likely here until the end of their contracts.

[Vanimal46]

Plenty could be trimmed off of the 40 man IMO. 

Plouffe, Suzuki, Wheeler, Schafer, Albers, Kintzler, Boshers, D Santana, Perkins, Centeno, Dean, Grossman, Milone, Landa could be replaced with other players. 

[Doomtints]

Clean slate the pitching staff.  Even the guys who have potential have been broken by this system. Get rid of half of them this year and half of them next year.  Berrios might be good someday, but it's difficult to imagine that happening in a Twins uniform.  As for everyone else: yawn.  If the half you keep impress in 2017, keep them.  Otherwise continue with the plan and get rid of them.  Just release the guys with stupid contracts if a trade can't be worked out.  By 2018 there should be a whole new pitching staff unless some of them prove they can pitch well in 2017.

 

For position players there is a lot of potential and in fact most of them are probably worth keeping.  The ones not to keep are probably obvious to all of us.  You also gotta get rid of either Vargas or Park, and Park makes no sense on a team that will need Sano to DH.  A Dozier trade would go a hell of a long way toward fixing other things since Polanco is ready.  Moving Polanco to field a new position poorly is not a solution, in the end the Twins gotta move Dozier for him so why put off the inevitable.  Dozier had his career year and now's the time.  

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

 

Adam Walker - Game Changer - 22-5 when he hit HR

 

Maybe--just maybe--he's mainly beating up on crap teams/pitchers?

[Doomtints]

 

Maybe--just maybe--he's mainly beating up on crap teams/pitchers?

 

Until he gets the chance to beat up on good teams/pitchers, you simply can't know.  

[GMinTraining]

 

Maybe--just maybe--he's mainly beating up on crap teams/pitchers?

Possible - Although he hit homers off of 15 pitchers who eventually played in the MLB this season.  I guess it's relative to what we deem as crappy.  [27 HRs overall / Second in the AAA International League in first year of AAA ball]

 

He has also hit homers of Tommy Layne (Boston / now NY), Trevor May, Mike Pelfry, Phil Hughes, Matt Barnes (Boston), Anthony Swarzak, Scott Diamond, Sean Burnett, and a 500 footer of Brad Boxberger. Oh, and a double off Tanaka (Yankees).  Maybe - just maybe - we'll never know?  Just saying

 

 

Let's talk about other 43 players, so I don't get started - Lol

[Vanimal46]

 

Until he gets the chance to beat up on good teams/pitchers, you simply can't know.  

It's the same song and dance with ABW... He's going to have to cut down that 38% K rate in order to get the chance to beat up on good teams/pitchers. 

[Doomtints]

 

It's the same song and dance with ABW... He's going to have to cut down that 38% K rate in order to get the chance to beat up on good teams/pitchers. 

 

Why?  Sano's K rate was 35.5% and 36% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, and this percentage was considered surprisingly good for him last year, people were expecting far worse.  Are you suggesting Sano should be in the minors?  Why have different rules for Walker than for Sano?

 

And what about Buxton's 35.7% K rate?   Buxton's strikeout rate is simply unacceptable for a non-power hitter.  

 

Why are you holding Walker to a different standard?  He is a known quantity in the minors, having been the same player for three years now.  The Twins are only wasting time by not seeing what he can do in the majors.  

[Vanimal46]

Why? Sano's K rate was 35.5% and 36% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, and this percentage was considered surprisingly good for him last year, people were expecting far worse. Are you suggesting Sano should be in the minors? Why have different rules for Walker than for Sano?

 

And what about Buxton's 35.7% K rate? Buxton's strikeout rate is simply unacceptable for a non-power hitter.

 

Why are you holding Walker to a different standard? He is a known quantity in the minors, having been the same player for three years now. The Twins are only wasting time by not seeing what he can do in the majors.

Sano's K % in the minors ranged from 21.3-29.3. It was at 23.8% before he was called up. Now we're seeing 35% in the majors.

 

Buxton's minor league K % ranged between 17.2-27.8.

 

So what should we expect from Walker if he has a 38% k rate in AAA? 45-50%?

 

I'm not holding Walker to a different standard. If he's striking out this much in AAA, he's going to be an automatic out in the majors.

[prouster]

Why? Sano's K rate was 35.5% and 36% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, and this percentage was considered surprisingly good for him last year, people were expecting far worse. Are you suggesting Sano should be in the minors? Why have different rules for Walker than for Sano?

 

And what about Buxton's 35.7% K rate? Buxton's strikeout rate is simply unacceptable for a non-power hitter.

 

Why are you holding Walker to a different standard? He is a known quantity in the minors, having been the same player for three years now. The Twins are only wasting time by not seeing what he can do in the majors.

I think the issue is that ABW's K rate is at Triple-A, whereas Sano is a Major Leaguer. That 38% is very likely to shoot up over 40% if Walker ever cracks the MLB roster. That's not a path to success. A guy like Joey Gallo (much more touted as a prospect than Walker) serves as anecdotal evidence.

[Doomtints]

 

Sano's K % in the minors ranged from 21.3-29.3. It was at 23.8% before he was called up. Now we're seeing 35% in the majors.

Buxton's minor league K % ranged between 17.2-27.8.

So what should we expect from Walker if he has a 38% k rate in AAA? 45-50%?

I'm not holding Walker to a different standard. If he's striking out this much in AAA, he's going to be an automatic out in the majors.

 

I would argue that you can't expect anything based on how others have performed in the minors.  You can make educated guesses but you just can't know for sure.  There is no cookie cutter mold that every player can fit into.  Ultimately the only way to know if Walker can hit in the majors is to put him there.  The Twins missed a chance to give him a cup of coffee at the end of the year in a futile season.  We could know RIGHT NOW whether or not Walker can play.  Instead, he remains yet another question mark for this team.  Oh, but we got to see Beresford.  I can see you laughing there, stop it.  

 

The Twins are marvelous experts at not being able to figure anything out.

 

If the Twins can sign Byung Ho Park with a straight face after he did nothing more than tee off on 86 MPH pitches, they can certainly give Walker a month to prove himself.  No?

[Vanimal46]

 

I would argue that you can't expect anything based on how others have performed in the minors.  There is no cookie cutter mold that every player can fit into.  Ultimately the only way to know if Walker can hit in the majors is to put him there.  The Twins missed a chance to give him a cup of coffee at the end of the year in a futile season.  We could know RIGHT NOW whether or not Walker can play.  Instead, he is yet another question mark for this team.  

 

The Twins are marvelous experts at not being able to figure anything out.

By all means, please find any example of a player who has that high of a K rate in the minors that translated to the MLB. 

What we would discover right now, is that Walker would get embarrassed by MLB pitching day in day out. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would argue that you can't expect anything based on how others have performed in the minors.  You can make educated guesses but you just can't know for sure.  There is no cookie cutter mold that every player can fit into.  Ultimately the only way to know if Walker can hit in the majors is to put him there.  The Twins missed a chance to give him a cup of coffee at the end of the year in a futile season.  We could know RIGHT NOW whether or not Walker can play.  Instead, he remains yet another question mark for this team.  Oh, but we got to see Beresford.  I can see you laughing there, stop it.  

 

The Twins are marvelous experts at not being able to figure anything out.

 

If the Twins can sign Byung Ho Park with a straight face after he did nothing more than tee off on 86 MPH pitches, they can certainly give Walker a month to prove himself.  No?

 

No, but you can make predictions based on literally dozens of years of data....

[Doomtints]

 

By all means, please find any example of a player who has that high of a K rate in the minors that translated to the MLB. 

What we would discover right now, is that Walker would get embarrassed by MLB pitching day in day out. 

 

What's worse:  Watching Beresford get embarrassed by pitchers, or Walker?  At least with the latter there is a point.  The Twins promoted Beresford simply to be nice to him and tip their hat to a popular, long time minor leaguer before the next GM cuts him from the organization.

 

Had the Twins called up Walker instead, they could have tested your theory.  instead, they simply assumed (as you are) that he will never amount to anything.  But they already knew Beresford will never amount to anything.  

 

The Twins really have no good excuse for not having Walker with the team in September.  If he couldn't hit, the theory gets proven and they can keep him in the minors until time runs out while dangling him as a trade option.  Instead they left him as a question mark.  The future will be predictable:  Once he's out of options he'll be playing with the team when the team is trying to win games.  That's not the right time to figure out if a guy with flaws can adjust to major league pitching.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

What's worse:  Watching Beresford get embarrassed by pitchers, or Walker?  At least with the latter there is a point.  The Twins promoted Beresford simply to be nice to him and tip their hat to a popular, long time minor leaguer before the next GM cuts him from the organization.

 

Had the Twins called up Walker instead, they could have tested your theory.  instead, they simply assumed (as you are) that he will never amount to anything.  But they already knew Beresford will never amount to anything.  

 

That's not really the question, though, is it......if the comparison is to Beresford, it isn't to a MLB player.

[Doomtints]

 

That's not really the question, though, is it......if the comparison is to Beresford, it isn't to a MLB player.

 

Not a comparison.  A value judgment.  Which player do you call up in September to see if he can hit major league pitching if you are making the decision?

[Vanimal46]

 

What's worse:  Watching Beresford get embarrassed by pitchers, or Walker?  At least with the latter there is a point.  The Twins promoted Beresford simply to be nice to him and tip their hat to a popular, long time minor leaguer before the next GM cuts him from the organization.

 

Had the Twins called up Walker instead, they could have tested your theory.  instead, they simply assumed (as you are) that he will never amount to anything.  But they already knew Beresford will never amount to anything.  

 

The Twins really have no good excuse for not having Walker with the team in September.  If he couldn't hit, the theory gets proven and they can keep him in the minors until time runs out.  Instead they left him as a question mark.  The future will be predictable:  Once he's out of options he'll be playing with the team when the team is trying to win games.  That's not the right time to figure out if a guy with flaws can adjust to major league pitching.  

Watching Walker would have been more embarrassing IMO. Beresford at least had years of data under his belt where his K% ranged between 10-15%. 

I don't think of him as a question mark. I think of him as someone who's still 1-2 years away from being considered as an MLB option. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not a comparison.  A value judgment.  Which player do you call up in September to see if he can hit major league pitching if you are making the decision?

 

We were discussing if Walker strikes out too much, not if he should have been called up....

 

but yes, I would have called him up.

[Doomtints]

 

Watching Walker would have been more embarrassing IMO. Beresford at least had years of data under his belt where his K% ranged between 10-15%. 

I don't think of him as a question mark. I think of him as someone who's still 1-2 years away from being considered as an MLB option. 

 

Your response isn't logical.  We're talking about a September call up, a safe time of year to get a look at the prospects on the 40-man.  Beresford's K-rate has zilch to do with his MLB readiness and he had to be added to the roster to call him up.

I think you are simply arguing your viewpoint at all costs, which is fine.  I said my piece about the Twins wasting their own time and backing themselves into yet another corner.  The next front office will make better decisions.  

[Doomtints]

 

We were discussing if Walker strikes out too much, not if he should have been called up....

 

but yes, I would have called him up.

 

Right, that's where the conversation got steered.  

 

The Twins need to see what that guy can do, not follow conventional thought every chance they get.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Right, that's where the conversation got steered.  

 

The Twins need to see what that guy can do, not follow conventional thought every chance they get.  

 

Uh, I don't think projecting strikeouts is over conventional, YMMV, of course.

[Doomtints]

 

Uh, I don't think projecting strikeouts is over conventional, YMMV, of course.

 

Sure.  It's that mileage variance that makes it worth giving him a few weeks with the team.  

[prouster]

 

Your response isn't logical.  We're talking about a September call up, a safe time of year to get a look at the prospects on the 40-man.  Beresford's K-rate has zilch to do with his MLB readiness and he had to be added to the roster to call him up.

I think you are simply arguing your viewpoint at all costs, which is fine.  I said my piece about the Twins wasting their own time and backing themselves into yet another corner.  The next front office will make better decisions.  

 

It wouldn't have been a mistake to give Walker a cup of coffee this year, but I don't think it was a mistake to not give him one. As has been pointed out by several other posters, the K rate is simply to high to expect any level of success. Yes, it can't be 100%, irrefutably guaranteed that ABW won't be able to hit Major League pitching, but it's not 100%, irrefutably guaranteed that I will live long enough to finish writing this post (if you're reading this, I'm fine—unless this has been archived and you're reading it thousands of years in the future, in which case, well, I guess I've been fine for millennia). 

 

In any case, there really is no example of a player with Walker's profile sustaining any kind of offensive output at the MLB level. I pointed out Gallo earlier. It's not a perfect comparison, because Gallo arguably has the best raw power in the world.

 

Nonetheless, Gallo actually had a higher K rate at Triple-A than Walker (39.5% to 38%). When Gallo came up for 36 games in 2015, his K rate ratcheted up to 46.3%. When he came up for 17 games in 2016, his K rate absolutely ballooned to 63.3%. I'm not saying that Walker would be as bad as Gallo has been, because the latter seems like someone who needs to get his head screwed on straight. The small sample size caveat also applies; I don't think Gallo's true ability is a hitter who K's two out of every three trips to the plate.

 

My point is that many, many guys mash their way through the various MiLB levels without ever finding success at the Major League level. It's sad when it happens, because most fans want everyone with that kind of raw ability to do well. However, the track record of guys like Walker (which goes back years and years) means he has an extremely high chance at flaming out.

[prouster]

 

It wouldn't have been a mistake to give Walker a cup of coffee this year, but I don't think it was a mistake to not give him one. As has been pointed out by several other posters, the K rate is simply to high to expect any level of success. Yes, it can't be 100%, irrefutably guaranteed that ABW won't be able to hit Major League pitching, but it's not 100%, irrefutably guaranteed that I will live long enough to finish writing this post (if you're reading this, I'm fine—unless this has been archived and you're reading it thousands of years in the future, in which case, well, I guess I've been fine for millennia). 

 

In any case, there really is no example of a player with Walker's profile sustaining any kind of offensive output at the MLB level. I pointed out Gallo earlier. It's not a perfect comparison, because Gallo arguably has the best raw power in the world.

 

Nonetheless, Gallo actually had a higher K rate at Triple-A than Walker (39.5% to 38%). When Gallo came up for 36 games in 2015, his K rate ratcheted up to 46.3%. When he came up for 17 games in 2016, his K rate absolutely ballooned to 63.3%. I'm not saying that Walker would be as bad as Gallo has been, because the latter seems like someone who needs to get his head screwed on straight. The small sample size caveat also applies; I don't think Gallo's true ability is a hitter who K's two out of every three trips to the plate.

 

My point is that many, many guys mash their way through the various MiLB levels without ever finding success at the Major League level. It's sad when it happens, because most fans want everyone with that kind of raw ability to do well. However, the track record of guys like Walker (which goes back years and years) means he has an extremely high chance at flaming out.

 

I'll add that it's definitely possible for a person to improve their strikeout rate over time. This is pretty common, actually. However, the coaches would likely have to put up with a lot of growing pains in Walker's case. He'd need to run a pretty high walk rate BABIP in order not to be a sinkhole.

[DJSim22]

 

Sure.  It's that mileage variance that makes it worth giving him a few weeks with the team.  

 

I'm sorry we all seem to disagree with you Mr. Walker. 

[goulik]

It seems to me that this thread has been hijacked by another walker discussion. Please, if you want to discuss walker like this, take it to a walker thread not a 40 man thread.

[GMinTraining]

 

By all means, please find any example of a player who has that high of a K rate in the minors that translated to the MLB. 

What we would discover right now, is that Walker would get embarrassed by MLB pitching day in day out. 

By all means, please find any example of a player who has led his league in home runs and rbi's and total bases for 3 straight seasons and finished Top 3 in his 4th season who didn't make it as a successful MLB player?  What we would discover right now is that Walker has yet to be embarrassed as it pertains to producing runs and winning.  Consider this - He hit 27 homers and drove in 75 rbi batting 7th and 8th most of the year.  Who was he driving in? Not Buxton - Not Polanco - Not Kepler.  Just saying...........   When he did have a star studded line up and hit in the heart of the order - He struck out 20% of the time and was the league MVP.  

 

Javier Baez had a MLB 41% K rate and dropped it to 24% while in the MLB - Not to embarrassed tonight for the Cubs.

[Rosterman]

The whole Walker thing is a mess. You HAD a chance to bring him up in September and just see what you have in relation to major (or expanded roster) pitching. Now, you have to keep him AND Palka. Basically two similar players with no place to play and neither with a good chance of opening the season as a fourth outfielder even.

 

Then you have the mess in the bullpen. Pretty much NO ONE is a keeper, except for expectations (great expectations). The young guys on the 40-man too far down in the system but you now have to continue to keep them even though none of them will probably even get a cup of coffee in 2017. Go figure. Chargolis has potential to burn. But ALL the other relief specialists, including your closer Kintzler, are basically replacable with more of the same. Pressly, Tonkin, O'Rourke, sadly ALL can go, joiningg Dean and Alebrs and Boshers and even Wimmers. If you need the space.

 

Be interesting to see if arbitration is offered to Plouffe and Santiago. Neitehr deserving at this point.

 

Byung-Ho Park can be offered around, but no takers unless he returns to Asia, I assume.

 

Too bad we are stuck with Joe Mauer. I would rather see Vargas at this moment, and Walker/Palka at DH. Heck, I might even stomach a $10 million contract to Plouffe if we didn't have Mauer on staff.

 

The Twins front office ahs some jaor decisions to make. 2017 STILL won't look pretty, as we are still stuck with Hughes and Perkins. Gibson is not going anywheres. Duffey is considered a rotation guy (why?). 

 

Did I miss Wheeler being added to the 40-man?

 

From the list at the top, I see 18 names that DON'T have to stay there!