To Protect or Not to Protect

[GMinTraining]

 

No, but you can make predictions based on literally dozens of years of data....

Where has that gotten the Twins in recent years - "Outside the Box" - Take a chance.....

[goulik]

As for the 40 man roster, there are plenty of names to cut and even more that could be protected as prospects who will be eligible for the rule 5. It is going to be quite interesting (at least to me) to see who is added. On the other hand, it is difficult for me to see very many prospects in the Twins MiLB system that are not on the 40 man and need protection. I just don't see many that could be on a 25 man roster all next year.

 

I do not believe Plouffe, Milone, or Suzuki will be here come Spring. Albers, Dean, and Beresford are obvious 40 man cuts in my opinion.

[GMinTraining]

 

Uh, I don't think projecting strikeouts is over conventional, YMMV, of course.

Is the same thought process used in projecting home runs and run production.  Can't be more consistent than 3 years in a row leading your respective league.  If you don't score - you don't win.

[GMinTraining]

Let's talk pitching - I would like to see the young flame throwers get a shot this 2017 season.  Similar to Kinzler and Boschers.  Chargois and Light can start up with the 25 man roster and get optioned down if needed.  Reed, Jones and Burdi (if healthy) can find their way up by mid season.  Would be nice to see.

[drivlikejehu]

By all means, please find any example of a player who has led his league in home runs and rbi's and total bases for 3 straight seasons and finished Top 3 in his 4th season who didn't make it as a successful MLB player?  What we would discover right now is that Walker has yet to be embarrassed as it pertains to producing runs and winning.  Consider this - He hit 27 homers and drove in 75 rbi batting 7th and 8th most of the year.  Who was he driving in? Not Buxton - Not Polanco - Not Kepler.  Just saying...........   When he did have a star studded line up and hit in the heart of the order - He struck out 20% of the time and was the league MVP.  

 

Javier Baez had a MLB 41% K rate and dropped it to 24% while in the MLB - Not to embarrassed tonight for the Cubs. 

 

It's one thing to continually and obnoxiously shill for Walker, but you intentionally ignore facts that greatly limit potential comparisons. Most players doing well are promoted before they can rack up huge numbers at a single level. Walker's talent for numbers is actually just a talent for avoiding promotion. 

 

But here's a fun comp: Tyler Moore of the Nationals. Led the Carolina League in HR, RBI, and total bases in 2010. Led the Eastern League in HR, RBI, and total bases in 2011 (31 homers both years, total of over 200 RBIs between both years). He was dominating the International League in 2012 and on track to again lead those categories, but as a result was called up to the Nationals. He does have 650 PAs but has been below replacement level, despite vastly lower minor league strikeout rates than Walker.

 

In reality, there have actually been a ton of players that consistently racked up huge minor league numbers but did nothing in the Majors. Of course you can look at Walker's stats and play silly games by picking certain combinations of categories and things like that, but there's a reason the Twins haven't promoted him, he can't hit and never will.

[TheLeviathan]

Oh yay.....Walker.  Yeah, let's bring him up and watch him strike out 60-75% of his at-bats in the name of just trying it to see if we get lucky.

 

I'm glad we tried to do right by the kid and wait until he's ready.

 

Vanimal pretty much closed this thread with his post.  There are plenty of dudes to cut off this list.

[jimmer]

Baez also struck out significantly less in the minors.  About 27% his last two seasons in AAA while getting on base 35% of the time? Oh, and he can play defense too.  Top notch defense.  Amazing defense.

 

But wait, what was his TEAM'S record when he hit a HR?  How many championships did his minor league TEAMS win? ;-)

[The Wise One]

 

Maybe--just maybe--he's mainly beating up on crap teams/pitchers?

 

I would argue that you can't expect anything based on how others have performed in the minors.  You can make educated guesses but you just can't know for sure.  There is no cookie cutter mold that every player can fit into.  Ultimately the only way to know if Walker can hit in the majors is to put him there.  The Twins missed a chance to give him a cup of coffee at the end of the year in a futile season.  We could know RIGHT NOW whether or not Walker can play.  Instead, he remains yet another question mark for this team.  Oh, but we got to see Beresford.  I can see you laughing there, stop it.  

 

The Twins are marvelous experts at not being able to figure anything out.

 

If the Twins can sign Byung Ho Park with a straight face after he did nothing more than tee off on 86 MPH pitches, they can certainly give Walker a month to prove himself.  No?

September call ups. Parmelee is a good example of not trusting one month sample sizes.  Nothing would have been gained by having Walker get  every AB that the callup recieved

[GMinTraining]

Walker was 1 of 44 names I mentioned in the original post and I fell for the ropa dope.  The thread was about who to protect and who to not protect.  I take it Walker is not among your keepers (Cool) - What about the other 43 players?  Who do you let go?  Just put your GM hat on and show us how you build a winner?  That's what the post was originated for - FYI

[big dog]

I think I'm with some of the other posters- Plouffe and a bunch of pitchers gone, I'd like a better catcher than Zuke if we can get one (but I'm not opposed to doing without), and I'd really like to see Danny Santana in a different uniform.  We need to clear a lot of room for some young players with real potential. I don't think Beresford sticks on the roster, and if we have a Logan it better be a pitcher and not an outfielder.

[old nurse]

 

Possible - Although he hit homers off of 15 pitchers who eventually played in the MLB this season.  I guess it's relative to what we deem as crappy.  [27 HRs overall / Second in the AAA International League in first year of AAA ball]

 

He has also hit homers of Tommy Layne (Boston / now NY), Trevor May, Mike Pelfry, Phil Hughes, Matt Barnes (Boston), Anthony Swarzak, Scott Diamond, Sean Burnett, and a 500 footer of Brad Boxberger. Oh, and a double off Tanaka (Yankees).  Maybe - just maybe - we'll never know?  Just saying

 

 

Let's talk about other 43 players, so I don't get started - Lol

That is an impressive list of pitchers. Other than Tanaka (rehab assignment or spring training situation)  there really isn't much on your list in terms of talent . A lot of players the Twins parted ways with.

[Squirrel]

Moderator warning: If you want to talk exclusively about Walker, please move it to one of the myriad of threads already started in him. If you want to talk about the 40-man then do it here. I'm now getting annoyed with the corruption of threads to this specific end and thread jacking is against policy.

[TheLeviathan]

This thread shouldn't be about Walker anyway.  There is no reason to drop him off the 40 man at this point.  There are plenty of other names that should be dealt or released that he shouldn't even be among those considered.

[Squirrel]

 

This thread shouldn't be about Walker anyway.  There is no reason to drop him off the 40 man at this point.  There are plenty of other names that should be dealt or released that he shouldn't even be among those considered.

Exactly. Thank you. Some just seem to steer the conversation that way. Enough already. Talk about the 40-man and who should come off it.

[NoCryingInBaseball]

Of the 44 names on this list, there are at least 5 or 6 that are free agents that won’t be offered any type of extension, have options or could be traded….taking this list easily below 40. Of course, a trade would add one or two, but the more important question is who are edible for Rule 5? Where can I find that list?

[jimmer]

 

Of the 44 names on this list, there are at least 5 or 6 that are free agents that won’t be offered any type of extension, have options or could be traded….taking this list easily below 40. Of course, a trade would add one or two, but the more important question is who are edible for Rule 5? Where can I find that list?

Who are those 5 or 6 that are FA?  As far as I know, we have one FA.  That's part of the problem.  And we can't trade free agents.

[TwerkTwonkTwins]

1. Adalberto Mejia
2. Adam Walker -  
3. Alex Wimmers (Barely)
4. Brandon Kintzler
5. Brian Dozier
6. Byron Buxton
7. Byung Ho Park
8. Eddie Rosario
9. Eduardo Escobar
10. Ervin Santana
11. Glen Perkins
12. Hector Santiago – Borderline Non-Tender/Trade Later
13. JT Chargois
14. Jason Wheeler
15. Joe Mauer
16. John Ryan Murphy
17. Jorge Polanco
18. Jose Berrios
19. Kenny Vargas
20. Kyle Gibson
21. Mason Melotakis
22. Max Kepler
23. Miguel Sano
24. Pat Light
25. Phil Hughes
26. Randy Rosario
27. Robbie Grossman
28. Ryan O’Rourke
29. Ryan Pressly
30. Taylor Rogers
31. Trevor May
32. Tyler Duffey
33. Yorman Landa

 

 

Cut /Let Walk
1. Andrew Albers
2. Danny Santana
3. James Beresford
4. Juan Centeno
5. Pat Dean
6. Tommy Milone
7. Logan Schafer
8. Kurt Suzuki
9. Michael Tonkin (tough decision)

10. Trevor Plouffe - Trade/Non-Tender

11. Buddy Boshers - EDIT: eh

 

 

[brvama]

 

1. Adalberto Mejia
2. Adam Walker -  
3. Alex Wimmers (Barely)
4. Brandon Kintzler
5. Brian Dozier
6. Byron Buxton
7. Byung Ho Park
8. Eddie Rosario
9. Eduardo Escobar
10. Ervin Santana
11. Glen Perkins
12. Hector Santiago – Borderline Non-Tender/Trade Later
13. JT Chargois
14. Jason Wheeler
15. Joe Mauer
16. John Ryan Murphy
17. Jorge Polanco
18. Jose Berrios
19. Kenny Vargas
20. Kyle Gibson
21. Mason Melotakis
22. Max Kepler
23. Miguel Sano
24. Pat Light
25. Phil Hughes
26. Randy Rosario
27. Robbie Grossman
28. Ryan O’Rourke
29. Ryan Pressly
30. Taylor Rogers
31. Trevor May
32. Tyler Duffey
33. Yorman Landa

 

 

Cut /Let Walk
1. Andrew Albers
2. Danny Santana
3. James Beresford
4. Juan Centeno
5. Pat Dean
6. Tommy Milone
7. Logan Schafer
8. Kurt Suzuki
9. Michael Tonkin (tough decision)

10. Trevor Plouffe - Trade/Non-Tender

11. Buddy Boshers - EDIT: eh

 

I mostly agree with this except for two.  I'd keep Tonkin going into early next year. I think he still has the potential to be good and I think he still has some value.  He might even be used to enhance a trade package. 

 

Also, would keep Centeno, otherwise you have just 1 catcher on the 40-man in JR Murphy and there are big question marks about him.  IF another catcher is signed than ok, or if he is signed to a minor league contract.  But with the demand of decent catchers I don't like being too naked here.  I understand that Garver and maybe Turner will be added, but that still puts the Twins very lean on experience.  Unless there is a play for an upgrade at catcher, I'm not in favor of adding a vet for more than a year.  Plus, Centeno did an ok job as a backup, IMo.

 

Question.  Can Perkins and Hughes remain on the 60-day DL thru next spring and thus not be counted against the 40-man roster?

[NoCryingInBaseball]

 

Who are those 5 or 6 that are FA?  As far as I know, we have one FA.  That's part of the problem.  And we can't trade free agents.

"free agents that won’t be offered any type of extension, have options or could be traded"...maybe I worded it incorrectly. I meant "free agent" and guys that can be traded (or simply let go)...clearly there are more than 5 or 6.

[Mr. Brooks]

"free agents that won’t be offered any type of extension, have options or could be traded"...maybe I worded it incorrectly. I meant "free agent" and guys that can be traded (or simply let go)...clearly there are more than 5 or 6.

That describes every player in the organization except Mauer (full no trade clause). That really didn't clarify what you meant.

[The Wise One]

Since players on the 60 day dl have to come off  the dl, the Twins need to dfa 2 to start with Albers and Dean. Additions Garver and/or Turner,  Vielma,  Granite, Felix Jorge,  Fernando Romero, Lewis Thorpe and maybe Wheeler   That is 6 to eight. Nine if you count leaving room for a rule 5. , Sukuki will be a free agent.   There is one slot. Boshers and Millone (along with Albers and Dean) are all pitchers that could sign a minor league contract.  Shaffer, Beresford, and Centeno (as Murphy might have more of an upside)  are all players that could be signed to a minor league deal with an invite.  That is five slots.  Danny, it was nice to know you.. Santana might need to have an advocate to stay on the roster.  That is seven  slots   Decision time on a few other players, Grossman stays if you believe you can either trade him or teach him to field the ball better. I wouldn't quite count him out just yet.  Arb eligible,  Plouffe and Santiago.  An exchange of contract proposals ought to be enough to determine non tender status.   Plouffe was paid 7.25 million. Great for 2 WAR plus players, way too much money for a replacement player. Moving on from Plouffe frees up another spot as I do not think Plouffe will go backwards with money. I do not recall if it happens where a player signs a decreased contract with a team. Plouffe goes makes the eight slot.  Santiago is a pitcher with a pulse. He will stay.   If they think they need a slot for a rule 5 player they need to cut one more. Tonkin is a grip away from being good I don't think he should be moved off the 40 man roster None of the 22 year old players should be removed from the 40 man. That leaves 2 other possibilities. Melotakis and Walker. Melotakins should be given one more year. Poower lefties are valuable. Adam Brett Walker goes away if you think there is a better prospect out there.  He also goes away if you think Palka has a better chance in the majors.  I think that  as Walker has never cracked anybody's top 100 list the brass would decide to risk lexposing both Palka and Walker to rule 5 draft so they can take one.

 

[GMinTraining]

 

Since players on the 60 day dl have to come off  the dl, the Twins need to dfa 2 to start with Albers and Dean. Additions Garver and/or Turner,  Vielma,  Granite, Felix Jorge,  Fernando Romero, Lewis Thorpe and maybe Wheeler   That is 6 to eight. Nine if you count leaving room for a rule 5. , Sukuki will be a free agent.   There is one slot. Boshers and Millone (along with Albers and Dean) are all pitchers that could sign a minor league contract.  Shaffer, Beresford, and Centeno (as Murphy might have more of an upside)  are all players that could be signed to a minor league deal with an invite.  That is five slots.  Danny, it was nice to know you.. Santana might need to have an advocate to stay on the roster.  That is seven  slots   Decision time on a few other players, Grossman stays if you believe you can either trade him or teach him to field the ball better. I wouldn't quite count him out just yet.  Arb eligible,  Plouffe and Santiago.  An exchange of contract proposals ought to be enough to determine non tender status.   Plouffe was paid 7.25 million. Great for 2 WAR plus players, way too much money for a replacement player. Moving on from Plouffe frees up another spot as I do not think Plouffe will go backwards with money. I do not recall if it happens where a player signs a decreased contract with a team. Plouffe goes makes the eight slot.  Santiago is a pitcher with a pulse. He will stay.   If they think they need a slot for a rule 5 player they need to cut one more. Tonkin is a grip away from being good I don't think he should be moved off the 40 man roster None of the 22 year old players should be removed from the 40 man. That leaves 2 other possibilities. Melotakis and Walker. Melotakins should be given one more year. Poower lefties are valuable. Adam Brett Walker goes away if you think there is a better prospect out there.  He also goes away if you think Palka has a better chance in the majors.  I think that  as Walker has never cracked anybody's top 100 list the brass would decide to risk lexposing both Palka and Walker to rule 5 draft so they can take one.

I agree with most of your assessments except for Santiago.  I think he becomes a solid #3 or #4.  The problem is we have several of those type guys.  I think they may take a chance of exposing Melotakis because of his injury history.  Doubt teams will take a chance on selecting a guy for their 25 man roster (rule 5) who has been on DL every year and not has not been to AAA yet (+25 yrs. old).

[The Wise One]

 

I agree with most of your assessments except for Santiago.  I think he becomes a solid #3 or #4.  The problem is we have several of those type guys.  I think they may take a chance of exposing Melotakis because of his injury history.  Doubt teams will take a chance on selecting a guy for their 25 man roster (rule 5) who has been on DL every year and not has not been to AAA yet (+25 yrs. old).

What difference does it make what "number" starter a pitcher is? If healthy they pitch in 33-34 games a year. Team gets into the post season it still doesn't matter what number they are, see Price, David. Kershaw also.  That is why Santiago is labeled as a pitcher with a pulse.

[NoCryingInBaseball]

 

That describes every player in the organization except Mauer (full no trade clause). That really didn't clarify what you meant.

 

OK, that’s fair, let me try again. TwerkTwonkTwins made a list of 11 that could be cut or simply let walk. My 5 or 6 include Suzuki (who is the FA), Plouffe (a trade would be nice, but let him walk if that can’t happen), Albers, Dean, an outfielder (either D. Santana or Schafer), and Centeno (if the organization is going after a FA Catcher).
I seem to having difficulty sticking with the point of my initial post. I was simply trying to figure out approximately how many prospects are in danger of Rule 5 if they’re not protected on the 40-man roster. This morning The Wise One mentioned 8 names earlier this morning; Garver, Turner, Vielma, Granite, Felix Jorge, Fernando Romero, Lewis Thorpe and Wheeler. That’s a lot of names to protect.

[TwerkTwonkTwins]

 

I mostly agree with this except for two.  I'd keep Tonkin going into early next year. I think he still has the potential to be good and I think he still has some value.  He might even be used to enhance a trade package. 

 

Also, would keep Centeno, otherwise you have just 1 catcher on the 40-man in JR Murphy and there are big question marks about him.  IF another catcher is signed than ok, or if he is signed to a minor league contract.  But with the demand of decent catchers I don't like being too naked here.  I understand that Garver and maybe Turner will be added, but that still puts the Twins very lean on experience.  Unless there is a play for an upgrade at catcher, I'm not in favor of adding a vet for more than a year.  Plus, Centeno did an ok job as a backup, IMo.

 

Question.  Can Perkins and Hughes remain on the 60-day DL thru next spring and thus not be counted against the 40-man roster?

 

Tonkin and Centeno are definitely the two players I'd have second thoughts about cutting. Thing about Tonkin is he has a good fastball, but has had mediocre results over the course of 4 years of chances. He is out of options and we have more hard-throwing relievers in the wings with better stuff, such as Burdi (albeit with many injury issues). I think a trade would produce minimal return such as a PTBNL or cash, but hey the Orioles received JJ Hardy for Jim Hoey and Brendan Harris. We just need to trade him to a Bill Smith type!

 

Ceteno is an adequate back-up catcher for a lousy team, but I'd like more defense out of that spot. We plucked him as a Minor League free agent last year and I would have to believe we can go that route again. That being said, catching is valuable in any form and I wouldn't be heartbroken if we retained him. 

 

As for the 60 Day DL, this is what baseballreference explains, "The second type of disabled list is the 60-day disabled list. A player on this list can be replaced both on the active roster and the Major League roster during the regular season and post-season. However, he must return to the Major League roster during the off-season if his team wants to retain his services for the future."

 
So Glen Perkins and Phil Hughes have to be reinstated, but can go back on during Spring Training if they prove unhealthy. For this offseason, they eat up two roster spots. 

 

[brvama]

Thanks, Twerk for the 60-day DL explanation. 

[goulik]

OK, that’s fair, let me try again. TwerkTwonkTwins made a list of 11 that could be cut or simply let walk. My 5 or 6 include Suzuki (who is the FA), Plouffe (a trade would be nice, but let him walk if that can’t happen), Albers, Dean, an outfielder (either D. Santana or Schafer), and Centeno (if the organization is going after a FA Catcher).

I seem to having difficulty sticking with the point of my initial post. I was simply trying to figure out approximately how many prospects are in danger of Rule 5 if they’re not protected on the 40-man roster. This morning The Wise One mentioned 8 names earlier this morning; Garver, Turner, Vielma, Granite, Felix Jorge, Fernando Romero, Lewis Thorpe and Wheeler. That’s a lot of names to protect.

But how many of those can stick a full season on an MLB 25 man roster? Thorpe does not need protection despite his potential. His injuries, recovery, Mono, missed time and low level in the minors...he won't get picked. Garver needs protection. Turner? He can't even make Seths most recent top 50 Twins prospects...

Vielma and Granite are stretches to be considered for an MLB roster spot for a whole season!?! I could see a team trying to tuck a Romero or Jorge into a bullpen but they would probably be returned before the year was up unless they were picked by a team really tanking. Wheeler might get picked but are you THAT desperate to hold on to him and would someone really want him. He has done well in the minors but is not projected very highly as a prospect either.

On the other hand, there are plenty of names that could be removed from the 40 man roster to make room. I am not concerned about if we can protect them. I'm just interested to see who they think highly enough of to protect.

[beckmt]

Would not bother to protect either Wheeler or Turner. Do not forget you have to add Hughes and Perkins back so you will need about 10 spots.

That should be easy.

Cut /Let Walk

1. Andrew Albers

2. James Beresford

3. Pat Dean

4. Tommy Milone

5. Logan Schafer

6. Kurt Suzuki

7. Michael Tonkin (tough decision)

8. Trevor Plouffe - Trade/Non-Tender

9. Buddy Boshers - EDIT: eh

 

Order might be important as might have to have rule 5 before non-tenders(I do not know the order)

Would not add either Walker, Turner, or Wheeler. That would reduce the issues of the roster. Will be interesting .

[old nurse]

 

Would not bother to protect either Wheeler or Turner. Do not forget you have to add Hughes and Perkins back so you will need about 10 spots.
That should be easy.
Cut /Let Walk
1. Andrew Albers
2. James Beresford
3. Pat Dean
4. Tommy Milone
5. Logan Schafer
6. Kurt Suzuki
7. Michael Tonkin (tough decision)
8. Trevor Plouffe - Trade/Non-Tender
9. Buddy Boshers - EDIT: eh

Order might be important as might have to have rule 5 before non-tenders(I do not know the order)
Would not add either Walker, Turner, or Wheeler. That would reduce the issues of the roster. Will be interesting .

Walker is on the 40 man