Can the Twins Afford to Release Mauer?

[KirbyDome89]

I might be one of the few posters who still doesn't mind the Park signing. I'm also in favor of keeping Vargas at 1B next year. What I don't understand is how anybody is comfortable with those two forming the DH/1B platoon next season. Mauer isn't near what he was in 2009 but he still has value, I see no issue with using him in a platoon role with Vargas as has been suggested. I agree that Park can spend time at AAA until the team has an idea where he falls between the guy we saw in April and the one that was sent down in June. With every fly ball to LF I reconsider Grossman's place on this team moving forward. Its hard for me to be excited about Palka and Walker, they were basically the same player in AAA this season, low OBP guys who have high, insanely so in Walker's case, K to BB ratios. If they get a major league look its fine, but it shouldn't be at the expense of mauer. 

[jimmer]

 

Well I am only doing back-of-the-envelope stuff here.

 

DRS is fine but what I dislike is that it looks like a counting stat, when really it's a rate stat. 

 

In general I have latched on to the UZR/150 measure because I have seen other respected commenters on the interwebs use that measure. I agree Mauer is top five defensively in all of baseball. 

I don't know people who use UZR/150 regularly unless you have compare a player who has like 140 games played to someone with 155.  Using UZR/150 when comparing players with a vast playing time difference (like Mauer and Vargas)is too hard because there is too much assumption built into it. I know Dave Cameron and Dan S (the ZiPS guy) have warned against it.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I don't know people who use UZR/150 regularly unless you have compare a player who has like 140 games played to someone with 155.  Using UZR/150 when comparing players with a vast playing time difference (like Mauer and Vargas)is too hard because there is too much assumption built into it. I know Dave Cameron and Dan S (the ZiPS guy) have warned against it.

Yes, there are warnings against trusting defensive metrics as reliable until three full seasons of data is collected. However, I will still compare UZR/150 with small and unequal numbers of innings, because at least it's something. Take it or leave it!

 

For example, should we start Danny Santana at shortstop full time throughout 2017 and 2018 to decide if he should be our starting shortstop in 2019? After all, we only have that one season of data on him. 

 

[jimmer]

 

 

Yes, there are warnings against trusting defensive metrics as reliable until three full seasons of data is collected. 

 

When trying to determine a players actual talent level, yes, three years.  But you can compare one player's 2016 defense to another player's 2016 defense using just 2016 stats and it will tell you how they compared to each other that year.  

 

Just like offensive numbers.  If, in a 3 year sample, a player has one great year, one bad year, and one good year.  You figure his talent level is: good player.  Doesn't mean that, in individual seasons, he wasn't good one year, great one year and bad one year. Those seasons still happened and that's how he was in those seasons.

[Guest]

Mauer should not bat second or third. His oWAR in comparison to his teammates is low, particularly on a per plate appearance basis. However, because of who he is or was, he gets more plate appearances and is slotted too high in the order, to the team's detriment.

[amjgt]

Gee, which school are you guessing?

Quite a haul from Wayzata to Cretin

[amjgt]

Many MN public schools are better than most FL private schools.

[DaveW]

Guess we are starting early on our annual spring training tradition of "Now that Mauer feels 100% again, he's ready to go back to his old self!"

 

Only to give him a litany of injury excuses by fall when it didn't happen again.

Even if he is a part time player due to injury at this stage, he still can put up a .800 ops with a high obp.

 

Plenty of value in that.

[USAFChief]

 

Even if he is a part time player due to injury at this stage, he still can put up a .800 ops with a high obp.

Plenty of value in that.

He hasn't had an .800 OPS since 2013. In fact, if he ends 2016 at his current .752, that'll be his highest OPS since 2013.

[ThejacKmp]

Makes no sense to get rid of Mauer unless the new GM is crazy and holds onto Plouffe*. Then you have a log jam. Otherwise you have Sano at 3B and Mauer, Park and Vargas at 1B/DH. ABW and Palka profile as 4th OFers when they come up halfway through 2017 so I'm removing them from the 1B/DH discussion.

 

(A.) I don't think Vargas has shown enough for you to be certain he's going to be better than this year's version of Joe (who had a very low BABIP compared to his career so there may be improvement). He might be but it hasn't been proven.

(B.) I know Park hasn't shown enough. He may be a guy who figures it out year 2 but he's done little this year to give you enough faith he'll be ready next year that you'd do something drastic with Mauer.

(C.) Even if they both were ready, using Mauer/Vargas/Park in tandem at 1B/DH makes a lot of sense. Vargas is a switch-hitter so you can get two lefties or two righties in the lineup and have a nice pinch-hit option on the bench. Mauer has struggled against lefties more this year than in years past so giving him some days off would help the Twins and help him stay healthier.

 

As an aside, I think the biggest "hey let's think outside the box" avenue would be to get Mauer a bit of time at 3B this offseason. He likely won't be incredibly good but let's be honest, Sano isn't winning Gold Gloves anytime soon. Mauer has the arm if not the range to be okay at 3B. If he could be a serviceable backup 3B, that would be useful.

 

* Can't emphasize enough how much Plouffe needs to go. Mauer is signed anyways and at least provides something (OBP) that the Twins don't have in spades. Plouffe provides nothing that isn't made redundant by the Vargi and Parki of the system and he costs $10 million. If they can flip him for a bag of balls, great. Otherwise, he's an eminently replaceable player. Very excited there's a new GM who won't have emotional ties to Plouffe.

[howieramone2]

The combination of Plouffe, Polanco, and Escobar is the way to handle 3B and SS. It makes no sense to move Plouffe, unless it's decided Polanco is best suited to 3B. I have no idea why anyone is concerned about the Pohlad's money.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Even if he is a part time player due to injury at this stage, he still can put up a .800 ops with a high obp.

Plenty of value in that.

 

Especially if he's used more sparingly and mostly against RHs. His splits this year were .793 vs. RHP and .610 against LHP. That's a one-year departure from his generally even splits in years past but it's not crazy to think that as he gets older that split might get more pronounced.

 

Mauer/Park/Vargas playing in a platoon at DH/1B still gets Mauer 120 starts (75% of starts are by RHP). He rests against lefties, Vargas gets the 150 he likely needs if this September is a harbinger of good things to come and Park gets 20-60 and is a nice bench bat (ditto for Mauer in the other 40 starts).

 

Really not crazy to think that using Mauer smarter would result in a .800+ OPS. He'd be healthier and in a better position to succeed.

[USAFChief]

 

Especially if he's used more sparingly and mostly against RHs. His splits this year were .793 vs. RHP and .610 against LHP. That's a one-year departure from his generally even splits in years past but it's not crazy to think that as he gets older that split might get more pronounced.

 

 

His career splits are not far off this year's difference.  Despite what Dickbert tell us, he has always hit better against RH pitching than LH pitching....146 pts of OPS better.  

 

I agree that protecting him from LH pitching would be a way to get more production.

[ThejacKmp]

 

His career splits are not far off this year's difference.  Despite what Dickbert tell us, he has always hit better against RH pitching than LH pitching....146 pts of OPS better.  

 

I agree that protecting him from LH pitching would be a way to get more production.

 

People always get hung up because, "You're paying $23 million for half a player" but if you're the LH side of a platoon, you're playing 75-80% of the time. And who wouldn't love to see Mauer back to hitting .300 as he gets some more breathers and faces mostly RH pitching? Plus, Mauer becomes a really nice bench weapon in late-inning games - most closers are RH and Mauer's elite OBP plays well for getting on base and changing the complexion of a ninth inning.

 

The 75% does suggest the only real argument against my plan (that doesn't involve Plouffe staying) which is that you perhaps stunt Park's development since he'll only be playing every third day or so. That is a fair criticism but Park is a 30 year old guy so I'm not worried about breaking him or losing tons of value. He'll be useful in his role and ready to step in for a longer look if Mauer or Vargas gets hurt (which seems like a not-unlikely thing given their age and size/athleticism). And if he struggles ABW can pretty easily take his place.

[WiesbadenDAN]

 

Defensively, Kepler is probably a better First Baseman than he is an Outfielder. It's what he played before he ever came to the Twins organization, and has played it still coming up through the system.

 

That doesn't mean his defense is worth more at 1B than in the OF, just that he's very capable there.

If Plouffe is still around he would be great option and it would clear up the 3rd base logjam as well.  Also the flexibility with 1st/3rd/dh rotation would add some utility and bench space.

[DrNeau]

Guess we are starting early on our annual spring training tradition of "Now that Mauer feels 100% again, he's ready to go back to his old self!"

 

Only to give him a litany of injury excuses by fall when it didn't happen again.

Right. Now that we're through with the sun glare excuse, we're going to circle back to the weak legs one. It never ends with this guy. If he was adequately training and incorporating some strength-training into his workouts, rather than simply stretching, he might not be so darn weak all the time. Let the season end so he can go back to his 350-lb. stretching coach and 55-lb. squats. Ridiculous.

 

Excuses we have heard:

* Defensive shifts by opponents

* Bilateral leg weakness

* He has a slightly slower bat swing making him vulnerable to the high outside pitch: Have heard this, though not much of an excuse. His bat speed has dipped because of lack of training.

* He is having more difficulty with an increasing mix of off speed pitches he is seeing (being pitched around)

* He is unlucky - but is still hitting balls hard

* Concussion: Happened in late August 2013. Was cleared in October 2013 to resume baseball activities. Stated in spring of 2014 that he "felt good". Stated in spring of 2015 that he was "excited", "felt good".

* The move to 1B from Catcher has made it more difficult for him to locate the strike zone and track pitches while batting

* Poor talent surrounding him

* Batted 2nd in the lineup, which produced less RBI opportunities

* Umpires no longer giving him benefit of calls, as he's no longer a Catcher

* Weak legs... he's not getting as many squat workouts, because he hasn't been catching BP

* Bad back

* Target Field is too tough to hit in

* Catching for 11 years still wears on him... even though he hasn't caught since 2013, Mauer claims he is still ailed by "nicks and bruises" from catching

* One walk off hit in career because he has been pitched around (classic; now has two - yay).

* Wasn't supposed to play because it was a day game after a night game

* When DH-ing, he's coming into the batter's box cold (not warmed up)

* He's tall so his strike zone is larger

* The (former) trees in Target Field were a distraction

* Blurred-vision

* Sun glare

[DrNeau]

Well, maybe so.

 

http://www.startribune.com/how-s-joe-mauer-s-health-as-twins-season-winds-down-i-feel-terrible/394704281/

"How do you feel, Joe?"

"Great."

"How do you really feel?"

"Terrible. I’ve been feeling terrible for a while."

 

ROFL.

 

Article then said he has been "hobbled for nearly six weeks"; at least he's not revealing an injury, back-dated 2.5 years, like his last injury (blurred vision). Funny how he went on to speak about "grinding" through the rest of the season. Who is grinding? I don't see any grinding.

[beckmt]

I feel that giving Joe a chance to retire with a buyout to turn him into the face of the Twins,

say 2 million a year for 25 years. It is not about 2017, 2017 is finding what you have and pruning for

2018. Plouffe is a separate issue and needs to be traded or non tending. With the money saved, you

could easily afford an ace after 2017.

[DrNeau]

I feel that giving Joe a chance to retire with a buyout to turn him into the face of the Twins,

say 2 million a year for 25 years. It is not about 2017, 2017 is finding what you have and pruning for 2018. Plouffe is a separate issue and needs to be traded or non tending. With the money saved, you could easily afford an ace after 2017.

Just bench him significantly more and his poor production will not affect the team as badly. He is a good bench bat... nothing more.

[Craig Arko]

"How do you feel, Joe?"

"Great."

"How do you really feel?"

"Terrible. I’ve been feeling terrible for a while."

ROFL.

Article then said he has been "hobbled for nearly six weeks"; at least he's not revealing an injury, back-dated 2.5 years, like his last injury (blurred vision). Funny how he went on to speak about "grinding" through the rest of the season. Who is grinding? I don't see any grinding.

I do.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Especially if he's used more sparingly and mostly against RHs. His splits this year were .793 vs. RHP and .610 against LHP. That's a one-year departure from his generally even splits in years past but it's not crazy to think that as he gets older that split might get more pronounced.

 

Mauer/Park/Vargas playing in a platoon at DH/1B still gets Mauer 120 starts (75% of starts are by RHP). He rests against lefties, Vargas gets the 150 he likely needs if this September is a harbinger of good things to come and Park gets 20-60 and is a nice bench bat (ditto for Mauer in the other 40 starts).

 

Really not crazy to think that using Mauer smarter would result in a .800+ OPS. He'd be healthier and in a better position to succeed.

 

Pretty much this (and your other post). Mauer has a spot next season, and smart usage of Mauer should be able to get decent results. He's under contract for 2 more years...  Neither Vargas or Park is a sure thing, though I'd be money that one of them really forces something next year... truthfully, I think the odds favor both of them.  2018 is going to be a bit more dicey there, but then again, one or both could fall on their face at which point Mauer isn't the problem, even if he's only putting up a .750 OPS. 

 

You can keep Mauer going by shielding him against lefties, and he does become a nice bench weapon, and if he can play just a bit of 3rd, he can give Sano the occasional day off. 

 

And yes, Plouffe really needs to go.  I like the guy, but I don't see the value in keeping him, and I doubt he's got trade value as 3rd isn't really a weakness for most contending teams.  He's unfortunately a non-tender at this point.  We'll be lucky to get a C+ prospect for him.

[beckmt]

I was hoping the guy quoted earlier said Mauer was thinking of retiring. Plan A was to give him his money and retire now, freeing the money for other uses.

Thus the $50 million over 25 years. You also have the argument that Jake Mauer is highly respected and this would allow him to interview and possibly become the Twins manager in the next 2 years.

Not a given, just to give him a chance to interview.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Right. Now that we're through with the sun glare excuse, we're going to circle back to the weak legs one. It never ends with this guy. If he was adequately training and incorporating some strength-training into his workouts, rather than simply stretching, he might not be so darn weak all the time. Let the season end so he can go back to his 350-lb. stretching coach and 55-lb. squats. Ridiculous.

Excuses we have heard:
* Defensive shifts by opponents
* Bilateral leg weakness
* He has a slightly slower bat swing making him vulnerable to the high outside pitch: Have heard this, though not much of an excuse. His bat speed has dipped because of lack of training.
* He is having more difficulty with an increasing mix of off speed pitches he is seeing (being pitched around)
* He is unlucky - but is still hitting balls hard
* Concussion: Happened in late August 2013. Was cleared in October 2013 to resume baseball activities. Stated in spring of 2014 that he "felt good". Stated in spring of 2015 that he was "excited", "felt good".
* The move to 1B from Catcher has made it more difficult for him to locate the strike zone and track pitches while batting
* Poor talent surrounding him
* Batted 2nd in the lineup, which produced less RBI opportunities
* Umpires no longer giving him benefit of calls, as he's no longer a Catcher
* Weak legs... he's not getting as many squat workouts, because he hasn't been catching BP
* Bad back
* Target Field is too tough to hit in
* Catching for 11 years still wears on him... even though he hasn't caught since 2013, Mauer claims he is still ailed by "nicks and bruises" from catching
* One walk off hit in career because he has been pitched around (classic; now has two - yay).
* Wasn't supposed to play because it was a day game after a night game
* When DH-ing, he's coming into the batter's box cold (not warmed up)
* He's tall so his strike zone is larger
* The (former) trees in Target Field were a distraction
* Blurred-vision
* Sun glare

How long have you been hanging onto that list....

[ThejacKmp]

 

2018 is going to be a bit more dicey there, but then again, one or both could fall on their face at which point Mauer isn't the problem, even if he's only putting up a .750 OPS. 

 

See I don't see how 2018 is a problem either. Unless Sano can't play 3B at all and needs to DH or someone pushes his way up who needs PT in addition to Vargas and Park (and I can't think of one - Lewis Diaz is at least two years away and Palka seems to have a role as a 4th or 5th OF), you're always going to be able to run out a 3 man platoon at DH and 1B.

 

Heck, if Joe is okay with platooning, I don't see any reason that he can't sign another (smaller) contract with the Twins after 2018 when he's 35. He's going to have value as veteran left-handed bat with great OBP and if he wants to stay around the game, he certainly can have a decent-sized role. Now obviously Vargas could become a star who needs to play every day and Sano could need to move to 1B/DH at 25 instead of 28 so this isn't set in stone but barring that, it's going to take someone exceptional coming up the pipeline at 1B/DH for Mauer to become useless.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Just bench him significantly more and his poor production will not affect the team as badly. He is a good bench bat... nothing more.

 

That's just crazy talk. Mauer put up a 117 SPS+ against right handed pitching this year. That is above average and right handed pitching represents 75% of at bats. He should be rested against lefties more regularly but to say he is only a bench bat and nothing more shows a disconnect with reality.

[ThejacKmp]

 

And yes, Plouffe really needs to go.  I like the guy, but I don't see the value in keeping him, and I doubt he's got trade value as 3rd isn't really a weakness for most contending teams.  He's unfortunately a non-tender at this point.  We'll be lucky to get a C+ prospect for him.

It's really too bad they're going to get nothing for him. The Twins are like that guy who has to get rid of his old two seat muscle car because kids are coming along. The muscle car is nice but it's not a Corvette (maybe a Datsun?) and it's in rough shape - needs some work to keep her running. He keeps holding onto it even though he can't really drive it because he wants to find someone else who will value it and he knows that for the right person, she could be really nice. But alas, its no good and he ends up selling it because he needs the garage space for the SUV.

 

I've been hoping the Twins could deal Plouffe for something nice because he has some skills that could fit another team. That fit just never materialized and now it's time to clear some garage space.

[DocBauer]

I haven't had time to read through past couple of pages so forgive me if I'm covering something already touched on, but, I've had an idea recently that I like.

 

Let's say Mauer did retire, was bought out to do so, etc. What about Dozier to 1B, Polanco to 2B and either a trade or FA signing for SS?

 

Granted Dozier isn't the typical 1B in regard to target size, but he has good hands, excellent range for the position, and should be great on pop flies down the line, etc. He certainly has the bat. You now have Polanco in the lineup at a spot, supposedly/reportedly that he's better suited for, and you shore up the infield defense by acquiring said SS.

 

Thoughts?

[DocBauer]

BTW, if Mauer is around I totally agree to limiting him against lefties. It also rests him for the length of the season. Does that mean Park or Plouffe becomes the 13th position player? (assuming Vargas is the primary DH) I could see an arguement for either of them, but in truth, Plouffe on the cheap side after after a poor and injury filled year does offer more flexibility.

[Vanimal46]

 

I haven't had time to read through past couple of pages so forgive me if I'm covering something already touched on, but, I've had an idea recently that I like.

Let's say Mauer did retire, was bought out to do so, etc. What about Dozier to 1B, Polanco to 2B and either a trade or FA signing for SS?

Granted Dozier isn't the typical 1B in regard to target size, but he has good hands, excellent range for the position, and should be great on pop flies down the line, etc. He certainly has the bat. You now have Polanco in the lineup at a spot, supposedly/reportedly that he's better suited for, and you shore up the infield defense by acquiring said SS.

Thoughts?

Hypothetically if Mauer retired, I would move Sano to 1B and never look back. It eliminates his plus arm strength moving him there, but it appears he's destined for the position anyway. 

In that case, since Sano is off 3B, I'd look at signing Justin Turner... Or Plouffe at a discount rate. 

[wsnydes]

 

Hypothetically if Mauer retired, I would move Sano to 1B and never look back. It eliminates his plus arm strength moving him there, but it appears he's destined for the position anyway. 

In that case, since Sano is off 3B, I'd look at signing Justin Turner... Or Plouffe at a discount rate. 

If Mauer did retire, and assuming Park and/or Vargas weren't traded, I'd let Sano, Vargas, and Park duke it out in spring training.  At this point, I'd pick Vargas to win the 1B job based on defense, Sano to DH (somewhat unfortunately) and unless Park shows great improvement, I'd send him back to Rochester or try to trade him.

 

I really like the Justin Turner idea though.  That would get my approval.