CERA

[goulik]

Let's talk about CERA (ERA by who's catcher...)

 

Suzuki: 785.1 innings, 5.46 ERA

Centeno: 401.2 innings, 4.88 ERA

Murphy: 148.1 innings, 3.76 ERA

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/minnesota-twins-team-stats?season=2016&category=FIELDING+II&group=1&sort=8&time=0&pos=0&qual=0&splitType=0

 

Discuss...

[nytwinsfan]

 

Let's talk about CERA (ERA by who's catcher...)

Suzuki: 785.1 innings, 5.46 ERA
Centeno: 401.2 innings, 4.88 ERA
Murphy: 148.1 innings, 3.76 ERA

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/minnesota-twins-team-stats?season=2016&category=FIELDING+II&group=1&sort=8&time=0&pos=0&qual=0&splitType=0

Discuss...

I mean, certainly that's an interesting data point, and one we'd want to consider, but it may also have a lot to do with certain catchers being assigned to catch certain starters.  I'd like to see the mean ERAs of the pitchers they caught, weighted by number of innings before I draw even any mild conclusions.

[Willihammer]

IMO getting an above average defensive catcher is the single best move the Twins could make this offseason. Suzuki is awful.

[Mike Sixel]

It's hard to understand what Suzuki does well behind the plate. If the Twins really think he's helping the pitchers.....just how bad are the pitchers?

[Winston Smith]

 

It's hard to understand what Suzuki does well behind the plate. If the Twins really think he's helping the pitchers.....just how bad are the pitchers?

...and why is Suzuki still playing more than the other guys? He's gone after the season let him sit the rest of the games.

[ashbury]

CERA is a topic studied many times in the past, which demonstrated very little consistency from year to year, due (probably) to the non-uniform pairings with pitchers and the resulting small sample sizes even within a season, mentioned above.

 

Imagine your reputation being at the mercy of whether Good Gibby or Bad Gibby shows up on a given day, over just one season.

 

That said, if ever there was a catcher I'd expect to see consistently bad CERA from, it's Suzuki. I just wouldn't use CERA itself as very much of a criterion to base a move upon.The bottom line is runs prevented, but teasing out the cause and effect just from the runs scored is hard.

 

This would be a cool moment for Jack Goin to jump in and contribute some thoughts, without divulging any top secrets, on how his team evaluates catchers' contributions on defense.

[ashbury]

...and why is Suzuki still playing more than the other guys? He's gone after the season let him sit the rest of the games.

Saves wear and tear on the guys we care about?

[Halsey Hall]

With this pitching staff and it's high era's, it only stands to reason the more innings caught the higher cera.

[Mike Sixel]

 

With this pitching staff and it's high era's, it only stands to reason the more innings caught the higher cera.

How so?

[ashbury]

Honest question: with all a catcher has to do behind the plate, he has no role or responbsibility for noticing something like his pitcher tipping pitches, does he? I'm talking about Berrios, obviously, but I kept wondering about Nolasco and Duffey too.

[stringer bell]

C'mon Ash! I just found my pitchfork and was going to light a torch and then find Suzuki. Then you use this logic and common sense!

 

I do imagine Tim McCarver had a great CERA when he was Carlton's personal catcher (it was McCarver, wasn't it?).  It seems to me that Molitor has been pretty random in his catching assignments. It also appears that none of Suzuki's supposed intangibles have helped the pitching staff at all.

[wavedog]

I had my pitchfork ready as well - but then I looked at the 2014 and 2015 numbers and Suzuki had the top CERA for the Twins.  So either he has lost it this year or there are other more random factors.   In either case, I am ready to move on from Suzuki as our catcher.  Let's get as strong defensively up the middle as we can and then bunt our way to runs.   

[jimmer]

 

I had my pitchfork ready as well - but then I looked at the 2014 and 2015 numbers and Suzuki had the top CERA for the Twins.  So either he has lost it this year or there are other more random factors.   In either case, I am ready to move on from Suzuki as our catcher.  Let's get as strong defensively up the middle as we can and then bunt our way to runs.   

Could be the CERA doesn't really tell us much of anything...like FP and RF/9 for defense ;-)

[goulik]

I threw this one out at the wall to see what everyone said before really commenting so here's my comment... My "eye test" caused me to look for this and I then delved deeper knowing that this could be and actually really is deceptive. CERA is much like win loss, it's dependent on other people and not completely (or when it comes to catching, not really at all) on what the player is doing on the field.

Looking through the years, Suzuki has had several seasons of sub 4.00 CERA. He has been in the middle of the pack vs the league in previous years and with the worst pitching staff in the majors, it's no wonder he has the worst CERA in the league among qualifiers this year. He never has been top half but has he ever had a top half rotation?

Examining game by game for the last two months, Molitor has indeed been very inconsistent on who catches for whom. It really does appear quite random and examining that data revealed that most pitchers were consistently similar no matter the catcher. Duffey did have his one quality start throwing to Centeno, and Gibsons best 2 games have both been with Murphy behind the dish. Talk about small sample size issues...

I am still convinced that some pitchers do better with certain catchers or styles of catchers but it appears to be a marginal difference not a major one.

[goulik]

 

Honest question: with all a catcher has to do behind the plate, he has no role or responbsibility for noticing something like his pitcher tipping pitches, does he? I'm talking about Berrios, obviously, but I kept wondering about Nolasco and Duffey too.

 

 

Honest question: with all a catcher has to do behind the plate, he has no role or responbsibility for noticing something like his pitcher tipping pitches, does he? I'm talking about Berrios, obviously, but I kept wondering about Nolasco and Duffey too.

I would not think this would be a catchers "responsibility" but I believe high IQ catchers will pick up on things and become on field asistant pitching coaches. Watching a starter with the same delivery for 60 pitches suddenly change some things with runners in scoring position and the temperature turned up is a good time to have a catcher calm the guy down and get his delivery back in sync with what he had been doing without using coaching trips to the mound.

 

 

This would be a cool moment for Jack Goin to jump in and contribute some thoughts, without divulging any top secrets, on how his team evaluates catchers' contributions on defense.

Yes, Yes! Jack? Any comments on how one might evaluate the impact of a catcher on the pitching staff in particular?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm going to guess that for CERA to be accurate it needs not only a multiple season sample, but a multi-season sample across the same pitchers.  Don't get me wrong, I suspect that it factors in some way, but quantifying it is what is difficult here.