Article: Twins Trade Nolasco, Meyer, Cash To Angels For Hector Santiago

[TheLeviathan]

You're still talking about a calculation based on a variety of valuations that are predictive.  Yes, it does a better job de-emphasizing those stats, but doesn't eliminate them.

 

If you're asking me to compare two pitchers over the course of five years to see who has performed the best, I'm not going to use WAR.  I'm going to use ERA+.  Just like i won't use WAR for hitters either, I'll use wrc+.

 

It's just a simple, plain fact that Santiago has outperformed Nolasco by a sizable margin for at least 5 seasons.  And it's hard to take any argument seriously that doesn't accept that.

[h2oface]

Today's debut with the Twins is exactly what the Angels grew tired of: doesn't get past the 5th inning, two gopher balls (I love how Santiago says in his interview that he only made two bad pitches the whole game.....), and a couple walks. Hell, he even let Napoli steal second! A big "so what" trade.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You're still talking about a calculation based on a variety of valuations that are predictive. Yes, it does a better job de-emphasizing those stats, but doesn't eliminate them.

Um, no? B-Ref WAR is based on actual runs allowed, not FIP components. With park factors, like ERA+.

 

And they aren't mutually exclusive, you can use both. They both establish that Santiago has been better, but WAR is nice in that it can reward pitching more innings, which is a skill and can have some value, and in general WAR can put the comparison in terms of runs and wins, which is easier to compare. How much money is 10 extra ERA+ points worth? What might be a better investment, +10 ERA+ or +10 OPS+? Like any stat, WAR isn't perfect, and I am sure teams have their own proprietary things that are better, but I think it is clearly a useful tool in the toolbox for these fan discussions.

[Otto von Ballpark]

6 IP, 5 R for Nolasco tonight. But great K and BB rate! Classic Nolasco.

 

True to form, Santiago went 5 innings, yielding 4 runs -- slightly fewer innings, but a slightly lower ERA too!

[Major League Ready]

 

Today's debut with the Twins is exactly what the Angels grew tired of: doesn't get past the 5th inning, two gopher balls (I love how Santiago says in his interview that he only made two bad pitches the whole game.....), and a couple walks. Hell, he even let Napoli steal second! A big "so what" trade.

What did you expect to get in return for Nolasco?  No kidding, they did not get an Ace.

[h2oface]

What did you expect to get in return for Nolasco? No kidding, they did not get an Ace.

??? Not the point of the post.

[Major League Ready]

 

??? Not the point of the post.

OK.  Educate me.  How is that not what should have been expected in return for Nolasco?  If it's what should have been expected, what are you complaining about?

[alarp33]

 

OK.  Educate me.  How is that not what should have been expected in return for Nolasco?  If it's what should have been expected, what are you complaining about?

 

He called it a "so what" trade, I think it was pretty clear what he meant to everyone else.  Two bad pitchers being traded for each other, "so what", "nothing to see here"

[Major League Ready]

 

He called it a "so what" trade, I think it was pretty clear what he meant to everyone else.  Two bad pitchers being traded for each other, "so what", "nothing to see here"

Polish this pig anyway you like.  The 16 pages of discussion suggested it was not nearly so clear as "two bad pitchers being traded. 

 

Just for the record, I agree completely that it was too bad pitchers being traded and "there was nothing to see here".   This medium has its challenges.  h2oface and I might be thinking exactly the same thing and its the 16 pages of discussion that I am questioning in terms of expectations.

Edited August 5, 2016 by Major Leauge Ready

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Polish this pig anyway you like.  The 16 pages of discussion suggested it was not nearly so clear as "two bad pitchers being traded. 

The 16 pages of discussion contain a modest debate about the value of the deal to the Twins, including the "so what" post you responded to.  I don't think anyone in this debate so far deserves to be mocked for "expecting an ace" in return for Nolasco.

[Major League Ready]

 

The 16 pages of discussion contain a modest debate about the value of the deal to the Twins, including the "so what" post you responded to.  I don't think anyone in this debate so far deserves to be mocked for "expecting an ace" in return for Nolasco.

As I said, I am inclined to believe that I am in full agreement with h2oface.  We will just have to agree to disagree on the nature of this debate.  After 16 pages of discussion, there are two potential conclusions, IMO.  There is either more to it than two bad SPs being swapped or there is the usual complaining going on that once again the Twins did not get a good player in return for a bad one.

[h2oface]

Some were suggesting this is a big win trade for the Twins. I offered, way back at the beginning of the comments, that the Angels were just as tired of Santiago as the Twins were of Nolasco, and called it a "big so what" trade. The rest is projection. No complaint. But no admiration for the move, either. Ambivalent. Good luck to Alex Meyer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

or there is the usual complaining going on that once again the Twins did not get a good player in return for a bad one.

I am pretty sure no one has made such a complaint.  Some folks said it was a big win because Santiago is better than Nolasco.  Others questioned whether the difference between them is all that great, particularly in the context of the Twins current needs.  If that is how you interpret such a debate, I am not sure what to tell you.

 

I'll grant you this -- at least you didn't chime in to say how all of our opinions are wrong as judged by your experience in real-world business and management situations!

[h2oface]

Hell, I am on record as not liking another mediocre innings eater pitcher that consistently performed worse than his FIPs when he was signed! I love that he can now pitch batting practice for some other unfortunate team. It is amazing how similar Santiago looks physically to Nolasco. It will be like he never left but watching in a mirror. At least Santiago doesn't make us watch him grab his balls nearly as much as the record setting Nolasco!

[Mr. Brooks]

I realize it's only 2 starts, and I'm not making any statements at this point, but does anyone have a different opinion now that they've seen him pitch?

 

 

Ok, maybe a little statement. He looks like a lefthanded Nolasco to me.

[Mike Sixel]

Nope. I still think he is not tendered in the off-season, and they save millions, and free a roster spot.

[PseudoSABR]

Do we really need to do the whole Arcia-watch thing again? Ugh.

[laloesch]

 

Nope. I still think he is not tendered in the off-season, and they save millions, and free a roster spot.

Now that Alex Meyer is out of the picture it's going to be another season before Gonsalves or Stewart get close to reaching the majors and we still have no idea when or if Hughes comes back.  That leaves us with May, Jay and Mejia (late next season at the earliest).  Will the Twins go out and sign another big name free agent once Mauer is off the books?

Edited August 10, 2016 by laloesch

[alarp33]

 

Nope. I still think he is not tendered in the off-season, and they save millions, and free a roster spot.

 

Well I don't think that's why the trade was made ( I don't think the current regime would non-tender), I do agree there's a decent chance the new GM will non-tender him

[alarp33]

 

I realize it's only 2 starts, and I'm not making any statements at this point, but does anyone have a different opinion now that they've seen him pitch?


Ok, maybe a little statement. He looks like a lefthanded Nolasco to me.

 

The rush to anoint him as a much better pitcher than Nolasco, and to completely dismiss Alex Meyer could look pretty silly in a couple of years.  

 

[Mike Sixel]

I am not dismissing Meyer....but he is not exactly likely to be good at this point either. The rush not to realize both pitchers are bad, but one can by cut and millions can be saved....That rush seems odd.

[alarp33]

 

I am not dismissing Meyer....but he is not exactly likely to be good at this point either. The rush not to realize both pitchers are bad, but one can by cut and millions can be saved....That rush seems odd.

 

I'm not saying you dismissed Meyer, many did though.  And while I think its very unlikely he becomes a good starting pitcher, I don't think its unlikely at all he becomes a back-end bullpen guy.  

 

I realize one can be cut - but I'm not going to give credit to a trade where a potentially useful, even high end bullpen guy, was sold for $8 million.  

Edited August 10, 2016 by alarp33

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not saying you dismissed Meyer, many did though. And while I think its very unlikely he becomes a good starting pitcher, I don't think its unlikely at all he becomes a back-end bullpen guy.

 

I realize one can be cut - but I'm not going to give credit to a trade where a potentially useful, even high end bullpen guy, was sold for $8 million.

What price would Meyer be worth at this point?

[alarp33]

 

What price would Meyer be worth at this point?

 

I don't know.  But 6 years of control is pretty valuable, especially for a team that won't give multi-year contracts to relievers, therefore can't join free agency.  And has a bullpen currently comprised of potentially their 3rd best starter (because they "NEEDED him" in the bullpen), Tommy Milone, and Buddy Boshers

 

Does it make you feel better that the Pohlad's could potentially have that money though?

Edited August 10, 2016 by alarp33

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know. But 6 years of control is pretty valuable, especially for a team that won't give multi-year contracts to relievers, therefore can't join free agency. And has a bullpen currently comprised of potentially their 3rd best starter (because they "NEEDED him" in the bullpen), Tommy Milone, and Buddy Boshers

 

Does it make you feel better that the Pohlad's could potentially have that money though?

If Meyer pitchers six years in the majors, I will be shocked. I don't care about the money, but Antony and Pohlad should.

[alarp33]

 

If Meyer pitchers six years in the majors, I will be shocked. I don't care about the money, but Antony and Pohlad should.

 

Our criteria might just be different - I don't consider the trade a success if Santiago is non-tendered (which I highly highly doubt was the plan when the deal was made) and $8 million is saved.  

 

You likely could've saved $4 million by picking up the rest of the contract and giving Nolasco away, and not had to sell extremely low on Meyer.  

 

[laloesch]

 

The rush to anoint him as a much better pitcher than Nolasco, and to completely dismiss Alex Meyer could look pretty silly in a couple of years.  

 

I read somewhere that Santiago stated something to the effect that the Twins already had him make some adjustments and I was thinking already?

[h2oface]

Crunch all the stats you like. I would like to amend my evaluation of the trade from "a big so what" to "a massive so what". Hindsight rules! This Santiago is the pitcher the Angels would take Nolasco for.

[TheLeviathan]

Santiago has certainly been bad so far, that doesn't necessarily change things.  

 

6 years of Alex Meyer matters about as much as me offering my services to the team for six years.  Hell, to this point, by not even being on the team I might have helped more than Meyer has to this point.

[Kwak]

Santiago is bad, but the Twins defense--Oh My!