Article: Nunez Traded To Giants For LHP Prospect

[Mike Sixel]

 

That would be his "ceiling" though, right?  What he achieves if he stays healthy and successfully makes the leap to MLB?  A lot of prospects would probably be great return if they hit their ceiling.

 

This scouting report doesn't suggest he is a particularly strong bullpen candidate either, if starting doesn't work out.  He might not have as much margin for error to provide value even if he doesn't hit that ceiling, as compared to some other pitching prospects.

 

"I see a league average 4th starter".....does not mean he sees that as his ceiling, but as a likely outcome......who cares if that is his ceiling. They traded a guy they don't need for a legit pitching prospect who is close to the majors. 

 

I am baffled anyone can say anything other than "wow, that's a good trade"......

[jimmer]

 

I'm just hoping the proven closer tag helps gets us an overpay for Kintzler...

Indeed! Along with Cy Young candidate Ricky Nolasco, :-)

[Mike Sixel]

 

I tend to agree, but we got a borderline top 100 prospect for a utility player having a good offensive year (and not good defensively)... that's pretty much the definition of a blow me away offer for Nunez. 

 

Fangrpahs also has an article on his defense.....it is not flattering.....it reads like Danny Santana, except Nunez can hit and run the bases some.

[twinssporto]

 

BTW, per Baseball America, Mejia wasn't suspended for a steroid, but for a weight-loss drug:

 

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/maturity-conditioning-aided-mejia/#1XbcZJG6msRs4yCG.99

He looks to be in great shape.  I just watched his interview on youtube.  Seems like a good kid.

 

I wonder where I can get that weight loss drug?  Could loose a few pounds myself...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Pitt and Toronto could use some 2B help.

Toronto has Devon Travis healthy again.  They're not going to trade or bench him in favor of Dozier right now.

 

Pittsburgh has a full effective infield right now too, if they want to bench Harrison.  Freese and Kang, plus Mercer has been hitting this year too.  I guess they could slide Freese to 1B, but I don't see them wanting to bench Harrison right now, nor would they probably pay the price we'd want for a guy like Dozier.

[jimmer]

 

Toronto has Devon Travis healthy again.  They're not going to trade or bench him in favor of Dozier right now.

 

Pittsburgh has a full effective infield right now too, if they want to bench Harrison.  Freese and Kang, plus Mercer has been hitting this year too.  I guess they could slide Freese to 1B, but I don't see them wanting to bench Harrison right now, nor would they probably pay the price we'd want for a guy like Dozier.

I know who both teams have there for options, but even so, neither team has gotten good production from that position, but okay.

Edited July 29, 2016 by jimmer

[bird]

 

I am glad they tendered Nunez a contract this year!

 

 

Good point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

"I see a league average 4th starter".....does not mean he sees that as his ceiling, but as a likely outcome......who cares if that is his ceiling. They traded a guy they don't need for a legit pitching prospect who is close to the majors. 

 

I am baffled anyone can say anything other than "wow, that's a good trade"......

Sorry if I gave that impression, not saying it's not a good trade.  But it may not be quite as good as it looked on first glance, when I heard about his "top 100" rank and 9.5 K/9 at AAA.

 

What is a league average 4th starter, by the way, in terms of approximate performance?  I kinda get the ace/#2 debate, but I'm not sure how to quantify "league average 4th starter".  By the time you get to 4th in the "average" rotation, I think you are generally dealing with pitchers who rise and fall into that spot, rather than guys who are consistently average in the role.

[d-mac]

 

Pitt and Toronto could use some 2B help.

 

Devon Travis is pretty good. Also, Adam Frazier seems like he'll be a young cost controlled piece for the Pirates going forward. Neither would likely be fits for Dozier. 

[jimmer]

 

Here's an interesting article about Nunez

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eduardo-nunez-and-the-case-of-the-minus-28/

 

 

One of my favorite lines from it:

 

 

'I can tell you that Eduardo Nunez has been worth 1.0 WAR in his career, and 1.6 WAR this year. He was technically just an All-Star, but he was an All-Star in the way that the guys who finished after Lance Armstrong during his doping years are Tour de France champions'.

[gunnarthor]

 

Sorry if I gave that impression, not saying it's not a good trade.  But it may not be quite as good as it looked on first glance, when I heard about his "top 100" rank and 9.5 K/9 at AAA.

 

What is a league average 4th starter, by the way, in terms of approximate performance?  I kinda get the ace/#2 debate, but I'm not sure how to quantify "league average 4th starter".  By the time you get to 4th in the "average" rotation, I think you are generally dealing with pitchers who rise and fall into that spot, rather than guys who are consistently average in the role.

I think 4th starter means two different things.  

 

1) To scouts, it's a description of the player's stuff - John Sickels had a good discussion of that: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/7/3226335/defining-1-2-3-4-5-starters.   A #4 starter won't have any plus pitches but should have solid command/control.    But that's just the scouting line - a #4 can pitch above his expectations (or below).

 

2) And then I think people say "he's a #4" and they mean that they expect that he can pitch 180-200 innings at roughly 95-100 ERA+, 2ish WAR.

[bird]

 

Indeed! Along with Cy Young candidate Ricky Nolasco, :-)

 

Does reformed cheater Ervin Santana have panache?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I know who both teams have there for options, but even so, neither team has gotten good production from that position, but okay.

That's how production from the position can be misleading.  Travis has a 108 OPS+ this year, career 121 OPS+ if you include his debut last year.  And he's healthy and hitting right now.  It really doesn't matter that his replacements were terrible earlier this year.  (Heck, even if Travis were injured again, they'd probably look for a shorter term fix than Dozier, banking on Travis returning again in 2017.)

[Mike Sixel]

If this guy starts dozens of games, and puts up numbers around "league average"......that would be great. The Twins have 2 of those right now on the roster......

[bird]

Maybe Lovable Buddy Boshers can be marketed.

[Tibs]

I tend to agree, but we got a borderline top 100 prospect for a utility player having a good offensive year (and not good defensively)... that's pretty much the definition of a blow me away offer for Nunez.

I agree. It's just that Nuñez is an established major leaguer no matter what we may think of his abilities. I don't like the idea of trading him for one guy that may or may not pitch in the majors. But it's really just me nitpicking. I love that we got Mejia for Nuñez and it would be awesome if he was in our rotation in the near future.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think 4th starter means two different things.  

 

1) To scouts, it's a description of the player's stuff - John Sickels had a good discussion of that: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/7/3226335/defining-1-2-3-4-5-starters.   A #4 starter won't have any plus pitches but should have solid command/control.    But that's just the scouting line - a #4 can pitch above his expectations (or below).

 

2) And then I think people say "he's a #4" and they mean that they expect that he can pitch 180-200 innings at roughly 95-100 ERA+, 2ish WAR.

Thanks, that makes some sense.

 

Definition #1 actually might hurt our view of Mejia -- Sickels combines 4/5 in his article, and it seems the dividing line for him is more at #3:

 

 

 

NUMBER FOUR/FIVE STARTER
**Command of two major league pitches
**Average velocity
**Consistent breaking ball
**Decent changeup
John's Commentary: A guy to soak up innings, but who isn't as good or consistent or durable as a solid Three. The styles here can vary wildly. Some of these guys are control artists who lack plus stuff, others have plenty of stuff but don't command it well.

Examples are legion. Old Barry Zito. Ivan Nova. Blake Beavan. Luke Hochevar.

Something to consider: fans are often disappointed when a prospect is referred to as a "Future Number Three starter," but that's actually a huge complement. Even calling someone a Future 4/5 isn't a bad thing: there aren't enough 1/2/3 guys to fill every major league rotation spot, and even if a guy is just going to provide 170 so-so innings, that's still valuable.

 

So if the Fangraphs prospect guy thinks along the same lines as Sickels, his comments about Mejia qualify as "not a bad thing" but short of " a huge compliment."

[bird]

 

If this guy starts dozens of games, and puts up numbers around "league average"......that would be great. The Twins have 2 of those right now on the roster......

 

 

Yeah, I guess if I'm a GM of a contending club, my ideal for a #4 starter is Kyle Gibson. Or maybe Cheatin' Ervin Santana on a one or two-year contract.

[twinsnorth49]

Sorry if I gave that impression, not saying it's not a good trade. But it may not be quite as good as it looked on first glance, when I heard about his "top 100" rank and 9.5 K/9 at AAA.

 

What is a league average 4th starter, by the way, in terms of approximate performance? I kinda get the ace/#2 debate, but I'm not sure how to quantify "league average 4th starter". By the time you get to 4th in the "average" rotation, I think you are generally dealing with pitchers who rise and fall into that spot, rather than guys who are consistently average in the role.

Not as good as it first looked is probably still higher than anyone realistically expected. They traded a guy they needed to trade to cash in on whatever value he had and to open up a roster spot for a future contributing player. The fact they got someone who has at least an average chance of contributing as well at some point is a success.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

2) And then I think people say "he's a #4" and they mean that they expect that he can pitch 180-200 innings at roughly 95-100 ERA+, 2ish WAR.

I was thinking more along these lines earlier -- that seems hard to quantify.  There aren't that many starters who throw that number of innings to think of that as "average 4th" anything.  Maybe WAR per IP?  Minimum 10 GS in 2015, I found that starters ranked 91-120 by fWAR/IP averaged 1.6 WAR per 162 IP.

 

Then again, only 10 of those 30 starters actually pitched 162 innings.  8 of them didn't even pitch 100.  So I'm really not sure who to label as "average #4" or what to expect from them...

[DocBauer]

going to miss Nunez. I think this is a solid return though. Possibly a steal. The more young, live arms you have, the better your chances of a couple of them really sticking. Nice move!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Except he's not a top 100, except on BP a year and a half ago and on BA's midseason list which excludes a lot of players. (Last year, BA only published a "top 50" midseason list, which suggests that Mejia may rank about 50 spots lower when the full population of minor league players is considered again this winter. Maybe ranking ~140th? And that might be the high ranking of the lists -- Sickels seemed lower on him than most, C+ and 12th in the Giants system last winter, so I suspect he still may not crack Sickels top 175 this winter.

 

Mejia is an interesting prospect, but there is no evidence that he is currently a "top 100" prospect as the term is commonly understood.

Yeah, we need to stop throwing that term around. Midseason rankings are a bit different and he hasn't made a preseason list recently enough to matter.

 

But that should in no way invalidate the trade or our opinion of it. It seems like a solid deal for both teams.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not as good as it first looked is probably still higher than anyone realistically expected.

I'm not sure if it's that much higher than what we realistically expected.  When adjusted for the whole population of minor league players, BA's list might have him ~140th overall.  MLB and Sickels probably have him lower.  And that's not terribly meaningful -- heck, Sickels does a top 175, and then he listed 145 more players who all had a case to rank between 140-175.  I'm not sure there's much difference between a 140 and a 200 or perhaps even a 300.

 

I think if someone had suggested a prospect like that in a hypothetical Nunez trade, I don't think that would have been dismissed as an unrealistic expectation.

Edited July 29, 2016 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They traded a guy they needed to trade to cash in on whatever value he had and to open up a roster spot for a future contributing player. 

Opens up a 25-man roster spot, yes.  But, since Mejia is on the 40-man roster, this cuts both ways.  We won't be able to use Nunez's 40-man spot to protect one of our own prospects from the Rule 5 draft this winter.  Might not know quite how to grade this aspect until we see what other trades they make, and what kind of 40-man decisions they make through November.

 

But I'm cool with it.  We had to move Nunez, and we got something interesting.

[LaBombo]

This has probably been mentioned, but one of Mejeia's pluses is that his floor is projected to be reasonably decent for a guy without a high ceiling.

 

With prospects in general and those of rebuilding teams in particular, it's easier (and more fun) to think in terms of ceiling, but with the Twins being unable to count on Hughes or Nolasco in the rotation next year and with ceiling guys like Berrios and Gonsalves in the pipeline, a floor guy like Mejeia could serve an important purpose by keeping the Twins from once again overpaying a back of the rotation free agent.

[Kwak]

It's curious how the tone of posts have mellowed: Initially "Great", "Love it", to "not as good as it first looked", "something interesting", "not a bad thing"... . I wonder what people will be posting next summer.  

[FargoFanMan]

A good trade. Got exactly what they were looking for. Pencil him in for 2017. If he can get himself into better shape and work on his mechanics to gain control of his delivery a bit more he's solid. And he's a lefty. Even if he eventually gets moved to the bullpen that's fine. We need those bullpen lefties as well. I'm satisfied. A couple more trades to go hopefully

[amjgt]

 

Here's an interesting article about Nunez

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eduardo-nunez-and-the-case-of-the-minus-28/

 

 

One of my favorite lines from it:

 

 

'I can tell you that Eduardo Nunez has been worth 1.0 WAR in his career, and 1.6 WAR this year. He was technically just an All-Star, but he was an All-Star in the way that the guys who finished after Lance Armstrong during his doping years are Tour de France champions'.

 

That's actually a terrible analogy. 

[LaBombo]

 

It's curious how the tone of posts have mellowed: Initially "Great", "Love it", to "not as good as it first looked", "something interesting", "not a bad thing"... . I wonder what people will be posting next summer.  

That may be partly because there was concern about Antony's willingness and ability to get a good return on expendable veterans. There's enough precedent that one could envision Antony proudly touting a newly acquired pitching prospect's AAA win/loss record.  In that context the Mejeia trade is a home run.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's curious how the tone of posts have mellowed: Initially "Great", "Love it", to "not as good as it first looked", "something interesting", "not a bad thing"... . I wonder what people will be posting next summer.  

Speaking personally, I was initially pleasantly surprised that we made a trade at all, given our reputation and still being a few days away from the deadline.

 

Then upon further reflection, I realized that 3 days isn't that far from the deadline, and it really shouldn't have been a surprise -- Nunez was about the most obvious trade piece that TR could have possibly handed to Antony.  (And of course, the revelation that Mejia is not a current "top 100" prospect in any meaningful way, as was reported on the first page of this thread.)

 

Still a solid move that I endorse, but I don't think it tells us a whole lot about the Twins or Antony.