Byron Buxton: a tale of two talents

[Brock Beauchamp]

We've all had our moments while watching Byron. Is he a bust? Will his talent transition to MLB? How has he been this bad?

 

Well, there might be a small light at the end of the tunnel. Here are Buxton's splits between his AAA stint this season:

 

Pre-demotion:

.156 / .208 / .289 / .497, 49 PAs, 2 BB, 24 SO, .333 BABIP

 

That's... Horrible. Just shy of striking out a full 50% of the time. Everything about that stat line makes you cringe.

 

Post-demotion:

.236 / .272 / .396 / .668, 115 PAs, 6 BB, 37 SO, .343 BABIP

 

Okay, still kinda bad... But the strikeouts have dropped from 50% to 32%. Still high but perfectly within reason for a 22 year old player with 300 career MLB plate appearances. His BABIP is steady so he's not getting lucky with balls dropping into the green parts of the field.

 

And oddly enough, Buxton's splits tell a story of struggling to figure out LHP:

 

LHP: .167 / .241 / .313 / .553

RHP: .233 / .259 / .388 / .648

 

Buxton had a similarly odd MiLB handed split in 2015 but lacked that split in other seasons (primarily 2013 and 2016, as I disregard his injury-plagued 2014 season entirely).

 

Is there something about lefties that confound Buxton or is this a SSS blip? Given how his MiLB track record is mixed, I'm not sure.

 

To open the season, I said I'd be happy if Buxton finished with a .700 OPS. I'd be satisfied if he reached .680.

 

Well, it's an uphill battle for him to get there but here are his two week splits:

 

.267 / .313 / .467 / .779

 

Now, no way in hell do I expected Byron to go down the stretch with a .780 OPS but... Are we finally seeing the emergence of that prodigious talent we've waited years to witness?

[bluechipper]

I think I've seen improvements in Buxton being more aggressive early, and even when he has fallen behind in the count, he's been laying off bad pitches more and at least putting the ball in play. Still too many popups and fly balls though.

[mazeville]

He's slowly getting it and will be fine. He's had hits in his past six games and seems to have cut down on the strikeouts further. 

 

The key for the Twins is to just be patient with him, let him learn at the major league level, and focus on improvement. I don't expect a .780 OPS either but that is not out of the realm of reason given his talent level. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Buxton is taking roughly half a pitch more per plate appearance this season.

 

2015: 3.72

 

2016: 4.16

[mazeville]

One more point: Since his return, if you simply remove the two-week stretch since his return in which he was brutal -- June 7 through June 21 -- he's hitting about .333. I know that's not really a good exercise, but inconsistency among young players is hardly uncommon. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Okay, still kinda bad... But the strikeouts have dropped from 50% to 32%. Still high but perfectly within reason for a 22 year old player with 300 career MLB plate appearances.

But he already struck out 32% of the time last year, at age 21 with zero career MLB appearances.  It's a little concerning that he hasn't moved that needle forward in a year (and in fact let the needle fall back dramatically for a while earlier this season).

[wsnydes]

I think his overall approach seems to be improving.  It still needs work, but improving nonetheless.  The fact that he's at least making contact more frequently reflects that, IMO.  I look for him to cut down on the popups, but I'll take popups over K's any day.  At least make them field it.  It'll be fun to see how he progresses down the stretch.

[Han Joelo]

Watching last night (I don't watch much/at all, usually radio) he looks like someone who is starting to figure things out.  Kind of looked a half-beat behind at times, but adjusting.

 

When he made it to first, I was hoping the first base coach would say something to make him smile.  Still looks too damn serious to me.

 

On that note, I was kind of happy to see they weren't overly happy they won.  They actually looked like they had expected to win all along.

[Willihammer]

His swing needs work. Too long, too army. Needs to belly up to the plate IMO. He can barely reach a lot of strikes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But he already struck out 32% of the time last year, at age 21 with zero career MLB appearances.  It's a little concerning that he hasn't moved that needle forward in a year (and in fact let the needle fall back dramatically for a while earlier this season).

Doesn't it make sense that it took pitchers some time to build a book on him, though? He only had 134 PAs last season and played in just 46 games.

 

Last season, pitchers threw him a fastball 58.1% of the time. This season it's 54.8%.

 

Last season, pitchers threw him a slider 15.4% of the time. This season it's 21.0%.

 

That could be SSS variation or it could be pitchers opening 2016 with a more comprehensive book on Byron, one that says "this kid can't hit a breaking ball". The fact that Buxton *might* be adjusting and overcoming that pitch selection is promising.

 

Lots of speculation, few answers.

[tobi0040]

Doesn't it make sense that it took pitchers some time to build a book on him, though? He only had 134 PAs last season and played in just 46 games.

 

Last season, pitchers threw him a fastball 58.1% of the time. This season it's 54.8%.

 

Last season, pitchers threw him a slider 15.4% of the time. This season it's 21.0%.

 

That could be SSS variation or it could be pitchers opening 2016 with a more comprehensive book on Byron, one that says "this kid can't hit a breaking ball". The fact that Buxton *might* be adjusting and overcoming that pitch selection is promising.

 

Lots of speculation, few answers.

He looks a lot more comfortable this second stint. His pitch recognition is much better. His at bats are much more competitive.

 

His last ten games he has a 23% k rate with a .270/.308/.459/.767 line.

[twinsnorth49]

His swing needs work. Too long, too army. Needs to belly up to the plate IMO. He can barely reach a lot of strikes.

Agree with this, his pitch recognition seems to be improving but he's still mainly getting by on his lightning fast hands when making contact. If he can tighten up his swing and be more compact he stands to improve greatly. He's easily fast enough to turn on inside pitches if he can do this and tighten the zone on the pitcher.

[wsnydes]

 

His swing needs work. Too long, too army. Needs to belly up to the plate IMO. He can barely reach a lot of strikes.

I think that is reflected in the amount of popups we see.  A more compact swing would help him square up the ball more consistently and enable him to drive the ball better.

[John Kelsey]

What happened to the leg kick? Supposedly that was what turned him around in Rochester and then he dropped it immediately when he came back up. 

[Vanimal46]

His post-demotion slash line IMO is acceptable for his first full season in the majors. For 2017, I'd love to see a slash line between his his post-demotion and the last 2 weeks... .240-260 BA, .725 ish OPS. Then I hope he's settled into the #2 or #3 spot in the lineup, and starts his run of .275-300 BA, .800+ OPS seasons in 2018 and beyond! 

[Jarends703]

I see that Buxton's defensive statistics are mediocre.  What's up with that?  I only occasionally watch on tv but most reports are that he is amazing defensively.  Why don't these match up? 

[Dantes929]

 

 

 

Now, no way in hell do I expected Byron to go down the stretch with a .780 OPS but... Are we finally seeing the emergence of that prodigious talent we've waited years to witness?

I don't know that I expect it but I can certainly imagine the light turning on for Buxton much like it has for Kepler.     A little more relaxed and confident will breed more of the same.    We are getting a nice glimpse of what a Nunez, Mauer, Dozier, Sano, Kepler Buxton lineup can do when all the wheels are turning.    

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I see that Buxton's defensive statistics are mediocre.  What's up with that?  I only occasionally watch on tv but most reports are that he is amazing defensively.  Why don't these match up? 

Small sample size and it's possible that he's not amazing out there right now... Young players sometimes take time to adjust on defense as well, particularly if they're spinning in circles at the plate like a drunken Peter Pan (thank you for that phrase, BYTO).

[HitInAPinch]

So, what is it?  Happy / Not Happy that Buxton is doing better?

He's making more contact, less swinging strikes.  More contact leads to more hits.  He's getting better at working the count [see last nights game] and walks will follow. 

 

It's called progress, people. 

[Dantes929]

 

Small sample size and it's possible that he's not amazing out there right now... Young players sometimes take time to adjust on defense as well, particularly if they're spinning in circles at the plate like a drunken Peter Pan (thank you for that phrase, BYTO).

I was going to dismiss the defensive metrics and praise his defense but then there was that play last night in the first inning.    None of his crashes into the wall have really looked like anything that should even cause bruises and yet he seems to be banged up on all of them.    It looked like he was slowing down as he approached and didn't hit very hard.    My point about last night though is he definitely should have caught that ball.   It may very well have cost us the game since 2 runs scored and we lost by one.   How in the world is that not an error?     2 earned runs onto Gibson that should not be IMO.  Whats the criteria for being charged with an error by mishandling a fly ball.    I would expect him to make that particular play at least 99 out of 100 times.  

[stringer bell]

I was going to dismiss the defensive metrics and praise his defense but then there was that play last night in the first inning.    None of his crashes into the wall have really looked like anything that should even cause bruises and yet he seems to be banged up on all of them.    It looked like he was slowing down as he approached and didn't hit very hard.    My point about last night though is he definitely should have caught that ball.   It may very well have cost us the game since 2 runs scored and we lost by one.   How in the world is that not an error?     2 earned runs onto Gibson that should not be IMO.  Whats the criteria for being charged with an error by mishandling a fly ball.    I would expect him to make that particular play at least 99 out of 100 times.

Agree with most of what you said above. However, when Buxton is "slowing down" he's still running faster than I ever did in my life. I think it will take a little time for him to be amazing in the OF, but he is by far the Twins best right now.

 

Specific to running into walls, Buxton needs to learn how to protect himself while going to the wall. Sometimes it isn't possible, but a slight angle change could have averted the brunt of his last three duels with the fence IMHO.

[Brock Beauchamp]

One thing to remember is that it also takes guys time to learn stadiums. Buxton has barely played in Arlington. It looks like he pretty clearly lost track of the wall last night, which isn't a huge surprise.

 

I'm just glad he's not badly hurt.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Most OF don't get to that ball. When he's going that fast, I have to imagine that it's hard to slow down enough to avoid the wall. He obviously was wall-shy there after two crashes.

 

Why is there a chain link fence in the Target field? That is just crazy.

[adjacent]

 

Why is there a chain link fence in the Target field? That is just crazy.

Yes. A little bit out of topic, but, with all the money in the sport, why there is not padding all around the out field  walls in MLB stadiums? Look at all the lives and injuries that were saved in NASCAR with the safer barriers. I have to think than padding outfield walls in MLB stadiums has to be a much smaller investment.

[Halsey Hall]

The chain link fence is only by the bullpen, but I'd like to see that covered with padding too. 

[mnfireman]

 

 

 None of his crashes into the wall have really looked like anything that should even cause bruises and yet he seems to be banged up on all of them.    It looked like he was slowing down as he approached and didn't hit very hard. 

 

 

Have you ever stubbed your toe, hit your"funny bone" on something, banged your shin on a ball hitch, or bumped your head on something you didn't notice? Hurts like he!! don't it! And how fast were you moving? A lot slower than a full speed run. My point is that it it looked like his knee hit directly on the fence, padded or not its still a solid object underneath, and that caused the bruise. 

It may or may not cost the game (remember the Twins were up 5-4 after Sano's HR...thanks Pressly), but he will miss a couple of games and be ready and rested after the All-Star break.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I think he hurt his knee on the fall. His knee bent kind of awkwardly as he went down.

 

Hope to god it isn't an mcl or something like that.

[stringer bell]

 

One thing to remember is that it also takes guys time to learn stadiums. Buxton has barely played in Arlington. It looks like he pretty clearly lost track of the wall last night, which isn't a huge surprise.

I'm just glad he's not badly hurt.

I agree that learning stadiums will help his health and also probably help his fielding.

 

Call me skeptical, but I'm willing to bet that there is some injury from these collisions with fences that will end up disabling Buxton. I'm especially skeptical of the most recent diagnosis of "contusion". My guess is that when the swelling subsides, they will find something more than a bruise. I really hope I'm wrong, but I've seen it too many times with too many players.

 

Edit: espn is reporting that Buxton will have an MRI today (Saturday). I expect that will clear the air about the extent of his injury.

[Riverbrian]

In my opinion. If he has improved... it's on pure skill. 

 

He's still vulnerable to anything on the outside. 

 

He still knocks the majority of batted balls into the air.

 

 

Next time he bats... Watch the Swing... It's a consistent upper cut. 

 

The upper cut will explain the K Rate. 

 

He needs to keep his bat in the zone longer. 

 

The Tale of Two Buxton's. In my mind... It's the Buxton that he could be and the Buxton that he isn't yet. 

 

The Epoch of Belief and the Epoch of Incredulity... The Spring of Hope and the Summer of Despair...

 

We have everything before us in Buxton and we have nothing before us in Buxton. 

 

[spinowner]

 

 In my mind... It's the Buxton that he could be and the Buxton that he isn't yet. 

 

In my mind it's the Buxton that he will be and the Buxton that he isn't yet.