Should they stay or should they go?

[Brandon Warne]

My Twins trade deadline primer is up: 

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/minnesota-twins/looking-twins-likely-traded/

 

Love to hear the community's thoughts on my takes....

[diehardtwinsfan]

No Dozier?

[Brandon Warne]

I don't really see any way they'll do that, shy of a shockingly good offer. He'd be like....8th or 9th most likely to go just off the top of my head. 

[PopRiveter]

Nice read, but I was hoping for a little more insight on realistic return value.

 

Last year, the Twins gave up Chih Wei Hu and Alex Tapia for Kevin Jepsen. This year, he really looks like a dfa candidate. No trade value.

 

Is Plouffe likely to bring a proven mlb middle reliever, an A-ball starting prospect, a high-upside hitter who is out for the season with an injury or suspension? I doubt it.

 

If we were to set Oswaldo Arcia as neutral value, based on the fact the Twins just let him go for nothing, then I see one player on your list that has any potential to retrieve positive value. That's Nunez. Truthfully, I'm not confident he can retrieve a player with as much proven value or potential value as Arcia. 

 

I think this year's trade deadline picture is all going to be about freeing up playing time for existing assets. If Nunez goes, it is to let Polanco play. If Plouffe goes, it is to let Sano play (and Park by domino effect.)

[PopRiveter]

Dozier should be on the list if you care about return. 

 

If they want any chance at an impact pitcher, they're going to have to give up an established cornerstone player. Dozier is probably the only guy that might fit that description.

 

...and after the way he sunk this offense for the first 50+ games of this season, I'm sick of him.

 

I'd trust him to be a team's 6th most important hitter. I imagine there's a contending team out there that agrees.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Nice read, but I was hoping for a little more insight on realistic return value.

 

Last year, the Twins gave up Chih Wei Hu and Alex Tapia for Kevin Jepsen. This year, he really looks like a dfa candidate. No trade value.

 

Is Plouffe likely to bring a proven mlb middle reliever, an A-ball starting prospect, a high-upside hitter who is out for the season with an injury or suspension? I doubt it.

 

If we were to set Oswaldo Arcia as neutral value, based on the fact the Twins just let him go for nothing, then I see one player on your list that has any potential to retrieve positive value. That's Nunez. Truthfully, I'm not confident he can retrieve a player with as much proven value or potential value as Arcia. 

 

I think this year's trade deadline picture is all going to be about freeing up playing time for existing assets. If Nunez goes, it is to let Polanco play. If Plouffe goes, it is to let Sano play (and Park by domino effect.)

 

Fair point but that's all guesswork. Specifically, I don't know that any of these guys have obscene value.

 

My guess is that Nunez would bring back something pretty interesting (B+ prospect, maybe mid-to-back end rotation guy), Plouffe will bring back very little (maybe low, low level but interesting), Suzuki would bring back more than one might think (just due to paucity of catching depth in MLB) and Jepsen would be just PTBNL/cash, or an actual so-so C+ prospect assuming Twins pick up money

[Brandon Warne]

 

Dozier should be on the list if you care about return. 

 

If they want any chance at an impact pitcher, they're going to have to give up an established cornerstone player. Dozier is probably the only guy that might fit that description.

 

...and after the way he sunk this offense for the first 50+ games of this season, I'm sick of him.

 

I'd trust him to be a team's 6th most important hitter. I imagine there's a contending team out there that agrees.

 

I just don't see any way they move Dozier. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

Good, but I think Santana is more likely trade chip than Suzuki. There are several teams looking for a "solid" #3 guy and Santana has been that before. His numbers this year aren't great but other teams know how tough it is to pitch on such a bad team. He would do much better on a better team and his salary is not out of line for a solid third starter. 

 

By the way, I agree that Dozier will NOT be traded unless some team offers us a proven solid starting pitcher.  We have to have at least 2-3 established position players or the development of the young guys will suffer.  It's easier to develop hitting 2, 7, 8 or 9.  I think Mauer, Dozier, Suzuki and either Nunez or Escobar stay for sure and maybe both Nunez and Escobar. Polanco is going to have to make his way up and show he can play SS, play 3B and hit well enough to hold that position, or hit so well that the Twins trade Dozier over the winter.  The Twins are not going it trade someone just to open up a spot for him nor should they. Polanco hasn't shown enough to force that (he's a very good but not great AAA player)  and the likely return for Dozier isn't that great. Trading Dozier only happens if we get lucky and get offered MLB players at a position of need - he won't be traded for prospects. 

 

Agree that they'd like to move Santana, but the rotation depth is at an all-time low with the Hughes injury. At this point you're one move away from giving a rotation spot to Jason Wheeler, who isn't even on the 40. 

[PopRiveter]

 

Fair point but that's all guesswork. Specifically, I don't know that any of these guys have obscene value.

 

My guess is that Nunez would bring back something pretty interesting (B+ prospect, maybe mid-to-back end rotation guy), Plouffe will bring back very little (maybe low, low level but interesting), Suzuki would bring back more than one might think (just due to paucity of catching depth in MLB) and Jepsen would be just PTBNL/cash, or an actual so-so C+ prospect assuming Twins pick up money

Thanks for the thoughtful response. The Suzuki point is especially well-taken. I was surprised to see Chris Herrmann fetch Daniel Palka last year.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Thanks for the thoughtful response. The Suzuki point is especially well-taken. I was surprised to see Chris Herrmann fetch Daniel Palka last year.

 

It might not be an awful move for the Twins to move Suzuki with the idea of re-signing him in the offseason. Not a well-received take I'm sure, but he'd be a good insurance policy if they could get him to take, say, 3-4 mill per year and a reduced role. If he keeps hitting....that isn't likely. But it's something I'd think about. 

[leopoty]

 

Suzuki would bring back more than one might think (just due to paucity of catching depth in MLB) 

I like this point, because I see on TD all the time we need to go out and get a catcher, but this proves there are no good options out there to get. I also believe Suzuki has value because of this.

[Obsvr]

Suzuki would probably fetch something decent, but who do you replace him with?  The same reason he would have a decent return (lack of catching depth in the mlb) is really the same argument for keeping/re-signing him.

 

Dozier vs Polanco...I'm not a huge Dozier guy, but again, they really don't have a better option and he has a friendly contract.  I don't think Polanco is going to equal Dozier's production and Dozier is actually has great value as a 6-7 hitter rather than relying on him in the 1-2-3 spots.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Suzuki would probably fetch something decent, but who do you replace him with? 

 

At this point when you're this bad it doesn't really matter. That's why you make the deal. 1. you're so bad it hardly matters and 2. it allows an extended look at John Ryan Murphy to figure out what the heck is going on there. 

[Obsvr]

 

At this point when you're this bad it doesn't really matter. That's why you make the deal. 1. you're so bad it hardly matters and 2. it allows an extended look at John Ryan Murphy to figure out what the heck is going on there. 

 

True, but you still have to build around a few pieces and with catching being at a premium I think it's hard to get rid of him until you know who his replacement is going to be.  Not too mention, with good catching being a premium, I tend to think there is a good reason why the Yankee's let him go for Hicks.

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

Seems like Plouffe has been dinged up a fair amount this year.  I think the Twins moving him between 1st, 3rd and DH has a lot to do with that.  Maybe Twins trying to figure out the right place for Sano.

Honestly, I don't think the odds are anywhere 90% that he'll be traded:  damaged goods /injuries.

 

Jepsen:  this is why you don't sign relief pitchers to long term contracts.  Last year a savior, this year a bum.  Again, I don't think the odds of Jepsen being traded are anywhere near what you think they are: Damaged goods / not good.

 

Eduardo Nunez:   I'd keep him.  Only because I'm hopeful the Twins will start bringing up some MiLB INF for trial run this year and more time Spring Training and next season.  Need a veteran INF that can hit to back them up.  More stable defense would be nice.  But, if there's a nice offer on the table......

 

Abad:  I'd say more than 50%.  I just wouldn't expose him more than they've already have.

 

Suzuki hitting now does make things interesting.  If a team has a catcher go down, Suzuki's trade level is more likely to be in the 90% range than any of the others.

[Mr. Brooks]

At this point when you're this bad it doesn't really matter. That's why you make the deal. 1. you're so bad it hardly matters and 2. it allows an extended look at John Ryan Murphy to figure out what the heck is going on there.

Can't the exact same thing be said about Dozier, substituting Polanco for JR Murphy?

 

This talk of NOT moving Dozier blows my mind.

Why does a team several years away from competence need a guy like Dozier?

[Brandon Warne]

 

Can't the exact same thing be said about Dozier, substituting Polanco for JR Murphy?

This talk of NOT moving Dozier blows my mind.
Why does a team several years away from competence need a guy like Dozier?

 

No, because Dozier is signed for multiple years, younger than Suzuki, and actually good. 

[Mr. Brooks]

No, because Dozier is signed for multiple years, younger than Suzuki, and actually good.

Being good is why you trade him.

This is what rebuilding teams do.

Whenever someone complains that the Twins have never been sold big at the deadline, the excuse is that we haven't had any good older players to trade.

Well, we have one now.

[SwainZag]

 

Being good is why you trade him.
This is what rebuilding teams do.
Whenever someone complains that the Twins have never been sold big at the deadline, the excuse is that we haven't had any good older players to trade.
Well, we have one now.

 

Dozier is 29, has 2 more years at reasonable prices on his contract and for the 4th straight year is in the upper echelon at a premium position.  Even with his slow start he is on pace for career highs.  The market for contending teams looking for a 2B doesn't seem to be that great right now.  If they get a great offer for him, sure trade him away, but trading him just to trade him would be a mistake IMO. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Dozier is 29, has 2 more years at reasonable prices on his contract and for the 4th straight year is in the upper echelon at a premium position. Even with his slow start he is on pace for career highs. The market for contending teams looking for a 2B doesn't seem to be that great right now. If they get a great offer for him, sure trade him away, but trading him just to trade him would be a mistake IMO.

If he's truly an upper echelon player at a premium position, he'll fetch a good offer.

 

Teams don't need to have a gaping hole in order to try to improve at the deadline. You can try to replace an average or above average player with a great player.

So, if he's truly elite at his position, I don't buy that there are only one or two teams interested.

And if he's not elite, then why are we worried about not getting a big enough return?

He'll be at least 32 before this team even matters.

2017 just to stop the bleeding and try to get a plan in place.

2018 to evaluate any new players or prospects weed out the legit from the busts.

That leaves 2019 as the best case scenario to even consider competence.

Even then, I still don't see how we find a playoff worthy rotation.

[SwainZag]

 

If he's truly an upper echelon player at a premium position, he'll fetch a good offer.

Teams don't need to have a gaping hole in order to try to improve at the deadline. You can try to replace an average or above average player with a great player.
So, if he's truly elite at his position, I don't buy that there are only one or two teams interested.
And if he's not elite, then why are we worried about not getting a big enough return?
He'll be at least 32 before this team even matters.
2017 just to stop the bleeding and try to get a plan in place.
2018 to evaluate any new players or prospects weed out the legit from the busts.
That leaves 2019 as the best case scenario to even consider competence.
Even then, I still don't see how we find a playoff worthy rotation.

 

 

He very well could fetch a good offer, but then again there has to be a team in need.  I won't say he is elite, but he has been a top 5-6 2nd baseman for 4 years now.  With his contract, the team has flexibility as to when to trade him.  If they aren't blown away by an offer, why deal him?  There is a lot more time than just this July to find the best offer for him, just my thoughts on the matter.  While it might good speculation, it is just speculation to think the team can't compete until 2019.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Fair point but that's all guesswork. Specifically, I don't know that any of these guys have obscene value.

 

My guess is that Nunez would bring back something pretty interesting (B+ prospect, maybe mid-to-back end rotation guy), Plouffe will bring back very little (maybe low, low level but interesting), Suzuki would bring back more than one might think (just due to paucity of catching depth in MLB) and Jepsen would be just PTBNL/cash, or an actual so-so C+ prospect assuming Twins pick up money

 

B+ (using Sickle's scale) is top 100. I'd part with Nunez in a heart beat if they got something like that.  I don't think the return is going to be that good. Dozier, on the other hand, should get that.  He has 2 years of control left plus the half season.  He's cheap, wanted FA, and well above average. I'd deal him if I were the Twins.  I doubt they are competitive in 2017, which means 2018 is the soonest it happens at this point, and he's gone after that. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Dozier is 29, has 2 more years at reasonable prices on his contract and for the 4th straight year is in the upper echelon at a premium position.  Even with his slow start he is on pace for career highs.  The market for contending teams looking for a 2B doesn't seem to be that great right now.  If they get a great offer for him, sure trade him away, but trading him just to trade him would be a mistake IMO. 

I agree that the 2B market isn't likely to be great and that you only trade if you get a decent and fair package, which is probably less than most Twins fans think. However, I disagree that its a good idea to want to keep Dozier. Being good now does not mean he'll continue to be good. His defense is not great and will continue to decline quickly (I am not sure where the people think he's a good defender.) His skill set is of the type of guy that is in the last stage of a career...pulling everything and barely enough power. We have seen the downside of that when its not working the past 3 years. I my opinion, the struggles will only be for longer stretches and the hot streaks for shorter periods. 

 

I he IS a good player, but an extremely flawed and streaky player. I would bet before seasons end that he will go on another major slump and everyone will be pissed we didn't trade him.

[jorgenswest]

If streaky is part of Dozier's skill set, how much does it matter? If at the end of the year he has a mid 700 OPS, does it matter how he got there?

 

Perhaps by the end of the season Dozier has had a significant impact on 40 games. Does it matter that those 40 games were clumped together? If another guy gets to 40 spread evenly through the season is that better?

 

I don't really know. I searched for a study. I do know that when he is hot they can be comfortable throwing him in the middle of the order. Maybe there is concern amidst a cold streak that he won't have the next hot streak. When he was doing poorly this May, his pitch level data suggested that he hadn't changed from the player he was previously. There should have been little reason for concern then. There was nothing in that data to suggest his very low BABIP at the time was a result of a loss in skill.

[Thrylos]

 

Dozier is 29, has 2 more years at reasonable prices on his contract and for the 4th straight year is in the upper echelon at a premium position. 

 

That's not exactly accurate, and Dozier is trending the wrong way badly...  

 

Here is Dozier's ranking among second basemen based on fWAR

 

2016: 10th MLB

2015: 7th MLB

2014: 5th MLB

2013: 14th MLB

 

For me the Dozier/Polanco situation is a lot like the Mientkiewicz/Morneau situation.   In 2003 Mientkiewicz was 7th in the MLB as far as first basemen fWAR went.  That's when he was traded to make room for Morneau (who was a better player). Dozier should have been gone in 2014.  Hopefully with his recent hot streak his trade value rised a bit.   Polanco is the better player hands down here, in an even more premium position (SS) and I would suspect that Beresford could be as good as Dozier at 2B this season...

[drivlikejehu]

 

I would suspect that Beresford could be as good as Dozier at 2B this season...

 

LOL

[Rosterman]

Abad TRADE
Dean REMOVE
Jepsen RELEASE
Milone RELEASE
Nolasco RELEASE
Suzuki TRADE
Dozier TRADE
Escobar TRADE
Nunez TRADE
Plouffe TRADE
Vargas Bring Up
Mastro RELEASE
Park LEAVE DOWN
Santana (both) TRADE

Wow, 15 guys on the 40-man here. Not evening considering futures for Pressly, Rogers, Centeno, Gibson.

 

If you truly believe in the farm system at this point, you must go forward and supplement your roster with waiver claims and lowend free agents to get you to the competitive state (i.e. when the kids start to shine for sure, maybe). Similar to what Ryan did with the bullpen this season, although it backfired as it looks like NONE of the relievers will get much of a shot this year and it won't be until sometime next season that we start to see them dribble in.

[Twodogs]

I think as I have watched the Twins since the late 70's that usually the Twins fail when they are trying to develop players.  Over the last few years the Twins have had a plethura of prospects that were ranked highly as potential impact MLB'ers.  So maybe the Twins should take a different approach, maybe they should develop minor league talent and when they are ranked highly, trade them then for some proven MLB'ers that can make a team win a few games here and there.  Instead of trying to trade the Nunez's and the Suzuki's of the world that are basically worthless on the market because everyone already knows what they are capable of.  Whereas someone may have over paid for an Oswaldo Arcia 3 years ago.  I'm almost of the opinion that the Twins would have a much better chance at building an perpetual winner that way than the way they have been trying to do it???  Sell young guys high buy some proven players low.  I know it's kind of anti- the Twin way, but the Twin way hasn't worked out too well over the years.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Abad TRADE

Dean REMOVE

Jepsen RELEASE

Milone RELEASE

Nolasco RELEASE

Suzuki TRADE

Dozier TRADE

Escobar TRADE

Nunez TRADE

Plouffe TRADE

Vargas Bring Up

Mastro RELEASE

Park LEAVE DOWN

Santana (both) TRADE

Wow, 15 guys on the 40-man here. Not evening considering futures for Pressly, Rogers, Centeno, Gibson.

 

If you truly believe in the farm system at this point, you must go forward and supplement your roster with waiver claims and lowend free agents to get you to the competitive state (i.e. when the kids start to shine for sure, maybe). Similar to what Ryan did with the bullpen this season, although it backfired as it looks like NONE of the relievers will get much of a shot this year and it won't be until sometime next season that we start to see them dribble in.

the problem with this is you won't have anyone left in AA/AAA to backfill injuries

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't really see any way they'll do that, shy of a shockingly good offer. He'd be like....8th or 9th most likely to go just off the top of my head.

As much as I think a Dozier trade should be explored, it's unlikely he's a deadline guy. If he's to be moved, it will probably happen in the offseason