Arcia Traded to the Rays

jimmer · June 30, 2016

I switched over to the Rays game last night and the very first thing I saw was Arcia misplaying a ball in right field that cost the team a run. Even if he's somehow found new life as a hitter in Tampa, unless he's the second coming of Ted Williams, he won't top replacement value as long as takes a position in the field. He's the Venezuelan Delmon Young.

Well, one play certainly proves your point. Then again, they don't actually need to keep him in the OF.

jimmer · June 30, 2016

. As the Revere trade showed, Ryan will take offers for player he thinks he needs but is getting better than what he gives.

And as the Meyer trade showed?

old nurse · June 30, 2016

Bu UZR 150 and fangraphs . Since 2013 276 people have played at least 250 games in the outfield. Oswaldo ranks as the 48th worse. Inside edge ranks him 21 worse

old nurse · June 30, 2016

And as the Meyer trade showed?

Whatever the hell you want it to mean

jimmer · June 30, 2016

Whatever the hell you want it to mean

Well said.

In that post, you picked ONE trade (The Revere/May trade) to show a premise that Ryan gets better than what he gives in trade. It's what you said. I brought up another trade (Span/Meyer trade) done in the same offseason and asked if you think that trade falls under your premise.

Additionally, he's wasting May, so while May is certainly a better player than Revere, he has to actually be used correctly in order for that to, you know, come to fruition.

jokin · June 30, 2016

Because hindsight is 20/20? Who knew that would be his highest value?

Based on the person I was responding to, the Twins management is closest to the situation. knew all of his faults and the player's ceiling, "all-wise" as it were.... that's who is in the best position to know.

Teflon · June 30, 2016

Arcia career offensive wins above replacement: +2.5

Arcia career defensive wins above replacement: -4.4

Arcia offensive wins above replacement - Tampa +0.3

Arcia defensive wins above replacement - Tampa -0.3

jokin · June 30, 2016

Really, you want to argue what a travesty it was to let him go and management must be incompetent. Then, if someone makes a valid argument that he has not been very good offensively and has defensive issues, your position is that management is incompetent because they did not get rid of him sooner. Cmon, that is not even attempting to debate on merit. It looks like you are looking for any reason you can find to complain.

Uhh... not even close.. Arcia's flaws and deficiencies are virtually universally acknowledged- and certainly by me. Why would the FO keep a guy with a "valid argument" attached to him that he's "not been very good." The fact is, you look to sell young guys with "issues" and who are still mostly only about potential and when perceived value is yet to be realized... ala Delmon Young and Alex Meyer, to name a couple. If you've done your due diligence and have properly made the decision that he has the potential or likelihood towards the "issues" but can still drive value in the marketplace after a very solid rookie season, of course you look to move him.

And why keep him for 2.5 months this year in the apparent hope to raise his value, and then make sure not to do the things necessary to then implement any value-enhancement strategies? (ie, regular ABs, platooning, DH, play only in RF, look for as many match-ups as possible vs. inexperienced pitchers or pitchers with whom he has had previous success)

Let's put it back on you in the converse, are you arguing that this whole fiasco was an example of a "competent" move? I'll hang up and listen...

howeda7 · June 30, 2016

They should have sent Park down for Santana and given Arcia regular AB's at DH for the first time all year. When Sano is ready, they could have either gone down to 7 in the bullpen (Neil Ramirez does not need to be on this team) or sent Buxton back

There was no good reason for them to DFA Arcia when they did. If he'd gone 1-40 these last two weeks, at least they would be more justified if they wanted to do so when Sano is ready.

A Platoon would have been a good idea. Sending Park down to AAA would have been a good idea too, but that will happen when they activate Sano.

Its way to early to give up on Park.

Major League Ready · June 30, 2016

Uhh... not even close.. Arcia's flaws and deficiencies are virtually universally acknowledged- and certainly by me. Why would the FO keep a guy with a "valid argument" attached to him that he's "not been very good." The fact is, you look to sell young guys with "issues" and who are still mostly only about potential and when perceived value is yet to be realized... ala Delmon Young and Alex Meyer, to name a couple. If you've done your due diligence and have properly made the decision that he has the potential or likelihood towards the "issues" but can still drive value in the marketplace after a very solid rookie season, of course you look to move him.

And why keep him for 2.5 months this year in the apparent hope to raise his value, and then make sure not to do the things necessary to then implement any value-enhancement strategies? (ie, regular ABs, platooning, DH, play only in RF, look for as many match-ups as possible vs. inexperienced pitchers or pitchers with whom he has had previous success)

Let's put it back on you in the converse, are you arguing that this whole fiasco was an example of a "competent" move? I'll hang up and listen...

Anyone with the prerequisite skills and experience to evaluate management would not venture a guess as to if this was competent management would not offer an opinion without knowing exactly how they came to this decision. I can only offer two observations of which I am confident. One, you played both sides of the fence. Two, that does not demonstrate the thought process of an objective individual.

Mr. Brooks · June 30, 2016

Arcia career offensive wins above replacement: +2.5
Arcia career defensive wins above replacement: -4.4

Arcia offensive wins above replacement - Tampa +0.3
Arcia defensive wins above replacement - Tampa -0.3

I don't believe we've seen the best of Arcia yet. I think he'll be 2.5 to 3.5 WAR play player through his prime.

Will be interesting to revisit this in 5 years.

DaveW · June 30, 2016

Arcia career offensive wins above replacement: +2.5
Arcia career defensive wins above replacement: -4.4

Arcia offensive wins above replacement - Tampa +0.3
Arcia defensive wins above replacement - Tampa -0.3

Yes, we have established and all agreed that Arcia wasn't some asset defensively.

But the thing is, the Twins could have had him play DH this year if they did two very obvious things:

1. Trade Plouffe, give 3B to Sano

2. Not sign an unknown 30 year old DH out of Korea (Park)

Arcia is far from a perfect hitter at the plate, but he has shown some nice flashes and he still is only 25!

In 609 career at bats against RHP, he has hit 35 HR.

1.5 years ago, as a 23 year old he hit 17 HR in in 241 AB against RHP (.843 OPS overall)

These aren't hopeful projections by the way, these are major league stats.

Even if Arcia never improves his fielding (he isn't as bad as people say he is in the field anyways..but whatever) or learns how to hit LHP better (he actually was showing some nice improvement this year so far in that dept)

Even if Arcia doesn't improve at all from age 25-28, he is at the very least is a pretty nice guy that you are paying next to nothing for (for a couple more years), as a platoon type masher to have on your roster. 35 HR in 607 AB against RHP is something you can't teach. I would be shocked if we see another Twin player reach that mark anytime soon.

Again, there was absolute ZERO and I mean ZERO reason to cut Arcia from a team that is on pace for a 110+ loss season.

old nurse · June 30, 2016

Well said.

In that post, you picked ONE trade (The Revere/May trade) to show a premise that Ryan gets better than what he gives in trade. It's what you said. I brought up another trade (Span/Meyer trade) done in the same offseason and asked if you think that trade falls under your premise.

Additionally, he's wasting May, so while May is certainly a better player than Revere, he has to actually be used correctly in order for that to, you know, come to fruition.

I didn't think I had to list every trade to prove the point. I thought it was clear. I said if Ryan is offered something he views as more than what he gives up he will make the trade. Far different than what you took it to mean for some reason. Meyer was viewed as top of the rotation potential. If that potential had been met, it would have been a great trade for the Twins. Ryan would know the risk. If Chas Utley went down with a catostrophic injury and the Dodgers called thinking Dozier was the cure to what ails them and offered DeLeon, Ryan would make the trade if he thought the team would be better off. Not the best example I can think of, but maybe you get the idea. The Twins do not have a lot right now to use for examples of medium to high level players one would trade for a prospect that has some risk attached to them. .

jokin · June 30, 2016

Anyone with the prerequisite skills and experience to evaluate management would not venture a guess as to if this was competent management would not offer an opinion without knowing exactly how they came to this decision. I can only offer two observations of which I am confident. One, you played both sides of the fence. Two, that does not demonstrate the thought process of an objective individual.-

Your opening sentence is both a run-on and a non sequitur- hard to follow your logic. And believe me, I've yet to hear anyone cite the Twins's logic in an understandable way in how they handled Arcia this season, especially how it ended with so many other better options. Perhaps that isthe real reason why it is so difficult to cite the level of competence of Twins' management in this instance?

And in your response to your "confident" conclusions.... I beg to differ to the contrary... I'm both confident and comfortable on one side- the objective side of the fence... and that I, among many others- in this thread and countless previous threads going all the way back to before Spring Training concerning how best for Arcia to be utilized in 2016- have laid down a string of facts as well as proposals in pursuit of a successful outcome surrounding Arcia's likely denouement season... i

ncluding the culmination of this affair with Molitor's own acknowledgement that Arcia was not given a fair chance.

Platoon · June 30, 2016

Yes, we have established and all agreed that Arcia wasn't some asset defensively.

But the thing is, the Twins could have had him play DH this year if they did two very obvious things:

1. Trade Plouffe, give 3B to Sano
2. Not sign an unknown 30 year old DH out of Korea (Park)

Arcia is far from a perfect hitter at the plate, but he has shown some nice flashes and he still is only 25!

In 609 career at bats against RHP, he has hit 35 HR.

1.5 years ago, as a 23 year old he hit 17 HR in in 241 AB against RHP (.843 OPS overall)

These aren't hopeful projections by the way, these are major league stats.

Even if Arcia never improves his fielding (he isn't as bad as people say he is in the field anyways..but whatever) or learns how to hit LHP better (he actually was showing some nice improvement this year so far in that dept)

Even if Arcia doesn't improve at all from age 25-28, he is at the very least is a pretty nice guy that you are paying next to nothing for (for a couple more years), as a platoon type masher to have on your roster. 35 HR in 607 AB against RHP is something you can't teach. I would be shocked if we see another Twin player reach that mark anytime soon.

Again, there was absolute ZERO and I mean ZERO reason to cut Arcia from a team that is on pace for a 110+ loss season.

Your last paragraph is at the heart of this matter, and so many others regarding this team and its management. To wit: They are headed for 100+ losses, and are being run with the mentality of a close to contention team instead of the patience of a total rebuild team. Their moves make it look like Ryan still believes he can tweak this, and fix it. Here's a tweak idea, and the answer should be enlightening. If you took the Big Three relievers off the Yankees, and put them on the Twins, I I still don't see how they have a winning record. This team is THAT bad!

Major League Ready · June 30, 2016

Yes, we have established and all agreed that Arcia wasn't some asset defensively.

But the thing is, the Twins could have had him play DH this year if they did two very obvious things:

1. Trade Plouffe, give 3B to Sano
2. Not sign an unknown 30 year old DH out of Korea (Park)

Arcia is far from a perfect hitter at the plate, but he has shown some nice flashes and he still is only 25!

In 609 career at bats against RHP, he has hit 35 HR.

1.5 years ago, as a 23 year old he hit 17 HR in in 241 AB against RHP (.843 OPS overall)

These aren't hopeful projections by the way, these are major league stats.

Even if Arcia never improves his fielding (he isn't as bad as people say he is in the field anyways..but whatever) or learns how to hit LHP better (he actually was showing some nice improvement this year so far in that dept)

Even if Arcia doesn't improve at all from age 25-28, he is at the very least is a pretty nice guy that you are paying next to nothing for (for a couple more years), as a platoon type masher to have on your roster. 35 HR in 607 AB against RHP is something you can't teach. I would be shocked if we see another Twin player reach that mark anytime soon.

Again, there was absolute ZERO and I mean ZERO reason to cut Arcia from a team that is on pace for a 110+ loss season.

After the season he had at AAA last year, you would have structured the team to have Arcia as DH for the entire year? I am pretty sure there would have been a number of people who would have concluded that was incompetent management, including me.

Brock Beauchamp · June 30, 2016

I'm not saying he isn't a defensive liability, but that seems pretty anecdotal.

It's not anecdotal when we've all watched Arcia blunder around the OF for a couple thousand innings. The guy is a butcher out there. We've all seen it.

wsnydes · June 30, 2016

After the season he had at AAA last year, you would have structured the team to have Arcia as DH for the entire year? I am pretty sure there would have been a number of people who would have concluded that was incompetent management, including me.

That would have been preferable over signing an unknown 30 year old from Korea, which created more problems than it solved.

And I've never really been an Arcia fan.

DaveW · June 30, 2016

That would have been preferable over signing an unknown 30 year old from Korea, which created more problems than it solved.

And I've never really been an Arcia fan.

NTM it's pretty easy to find a DH type on the waiver wire anyways.

Hell, just ask the Rays!

Signing Park certainly made no sense, even if Arcia continued to struggle, the Twins had a plethora of options to take over the DH role internally anyways. And if all would have failed, they could have easily snagged one.

HitInAPinch · June 30, 2016

This Forums reminds me of the old SNL routine,

"On this day in history, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead"

Major League Ready · June 30, 2016

Your opening sentence is both a run-on and a non sequitur- hard to follow your logic. And believe me, I've yet to hear anyone cite the Twins's logic in an understandable way in how they handled Arcia this season, especially how it ended with so many other better options. Perhaps that isthe real reason why it is so difficult to cite the level of competence of Twins' management in this instance?

And in your response to your "confident" conclusions.... I beg to differ to the contrary... I'm both confident and comfortable on one side- the objective side of the fence... and that I, among many others- in this thread and countless previous threads going all the way back to before Spring Training concerning how best for Arcia to be utilized in 2016- have laid down a string of facts as well as proposals in pursuit of a successful outcome surrounding Arcia's likely denouement season... i

ncluding the culmination of this affair with Molitor's own acknowledgement that Arcia was not given a fair chance.

We found something we can agree on. The first sentence was supposed to end after competent management. I thought I had edited it but the scripts that run on this site lock-up my computer at times and the edit was not saved. Regardless, you still complained that they cut him and then complained they did not cut him earlier. I would not have cut him either but that was not the point. I would have sent Park to AAA and given Arcia one last shot as Mike suggested.

scottz · July 1, 2016

2 for 4, R, SB

LaBombo · July 1, 2016

Arcia career offensive wins above replacement: +2.5
Arcia career defensive wins above replacement: -4.4

Arcia offensive wins above replacement - Tampa +0.3
Arcia defensive wins above replacement - Tampa -0.3

With regard to the second, microscopic set of o/dWar, Park is +0.2/-0.2 in 15 times as many AB's and is four years older than Arcia, so if you're going to trim dead wood, sunk cost is the only numbers-driven 'reason' not to take a saw to Park before Arcia.

With regard to the first set of numbers, a franchise that's been pretty consistently one of the worst-hitting teams in the AL this decade probably ought to find a use for anyone who can generate offense, regardless of defense.

And if there's a convincing explanation in this thread of how the Twins' self-inflicted logjam of 1B/DH types is a valid defense of their inability to DH Arcia, I've yet to read it.

Teflon · July 1, 2016

With regard to the second, microscopic set of o/dWar, Park is +0.2/-0.2 in 15 times as many AB's and is four years older than Arcia, so if you're going to trim dead wood, sunk cost is the only numbers-driven 'reason' not to take a saw to Park before Arcia.

With regard to the first set of numbers, a franchise that's been pretty consistently one of the worst-hitting teams in the AL this decade probably ought to find a use for anyone who can generate offense, regardless of defense.

And if there's a convincing explanation in this thread of how the Twins' self-inflicted logjam of 1B/DH types is a valid defense of their inability to DH Arcia, I've yet to read it.

I don't disagree. I would have no problem with Arcia still being here as long as nobody gave him a glove. You can't build a team of defensive buffoons, however, especially with the kind of pitchers this team has. Sano is already shaping up to be a below average 3B or a very below average RF so he should be the priority choice to DH. That would move Arcia to a bat off the bench and sometime spot-starter and Park somewhere other than the 25-man roster.

jimmer · July 1, 2016

I don't disagree. I would have no problem with Arcia still being here as long as nobody gave him a glove. You can't build a team of defensive buffoons, however, especially with the kind of pitchers this team has. Sano is already shaping up to be a below average 3B or a very below average RF so he should be the priority choice to DH. That would move Arcia to a bat off the bench and sometime spot-starter and Park somewhere other than the 25-man roster.

Well, we have the second or third worse defensive team in baseball and that was with Arcia not seeing too much time out there. Defense seems to be an afterthought when putting this team together.

DaveW · July 1, 2016

1.194 OPS since the trade.

Park at DH has a .203 ops during that time.

Squirrel · July 1, 2016

If you want to continue discussions about this move, do so here. If all you want to do is post Arcia updates, do so in this new thread started to track Arcia. If you continue to post updates here, they will either be deleted or moved ... depending on my mood.

The Wise One · July 3, 2016

If this is all so obviously true, then why didn't Terry DFA him or trade him at any point after the completion of the 2014 season- in 2014 when his potential still held highest value- all the way up to Spring Training in 2016? The fact remains... it's still on management that he was occupying a valuable roster spot and wasting away on the bench for 2.5 months.

Was his value high? As he would have been the 13-14th best DH statistically that year, how high of value is that? As an outfielder, not even close to league average for anything. All he had at that point was potential. Do you know of any offers the Twins made? or were made to the Twins? Conversations that did or did not happen? You don't know if Ryan tried to move him or not. As Ryan trades so many young prospects, Arcia entering the discussion would raise a red flag to even the most brain dead GM.

He could be a 30HR guy, he could go bust. Potential had a long ways to go. SSS, but he is doing well in Tampa. Well, 4 strikeouts in 25 PA, you think maybe a different team telling him the same thing made it finally sink in to have plate discipline? Find out at the end of the season. Rotting on the bench, I see you must have missed following about half the Twins games as you appear not to notice how he played.

TheLeviathan · July 3, 2016

Add Kevin Jepsen to the list of people that could've gone before Arcia.

Ugh...

DaveW · July 4, 2016

Add Kevin Jepsen to the list of people that could've gone before Arcia.

Ugh...

At this point you really have to question if the front office has any real plan or idea.

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