The pursuit of a decent bullpen

[Brandon Warne]

I didn't really have an issue with how the Twins conducted business regarding their bullpen in the offseason. Now before you jump down my throat, please read what I wrote for Today's Knuckleball:

 

https://t.co/ViMHWhWH7Y

 

Then we can discuss. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

It is not in a terrible spot right now, at least they have some new blood in there. Maybe they can flip Abad and identify some useful pieces for 2017 and beyond.

 

Would be nice to see them drop Jepsen and audition another guy for 2017 (Chargois?). It is extremely unlikely anyone is going to take his salary off our hands anytime soon.

[jimmer]

It was obvious the bullpen would be a disaster and it is.  The fact that there are worse problems (like SP, defense, offense) is irrelevant and doesn't make it any less of a disaster.

[Brandon Warne]

 

It was obvious the bullpen would be a disaster and it is.  The fact that there are worse problems (like SP, defense, offense) is irrelevant and doesn't make it any less of a disaster.

 

Did you read the article, which I wrote, or the headline, which I did not?

[jimmer]

 

Did you read the article, which I wrote, or the headline, which I did not?

Yes, I read the whole thing.

[Thrylos]

Sorry, but it really misses the point.  It is not about comparing Boshers and Abad with Bastardo and Sipp.  For that bullpen to even remotely look like a contender's pen, it needed 2 pitchers better than Perkins.

 

Not Bastardo and Sipp.

 

Craig Kimbrel and Will Smith

 

That's the problem.  Perkins was D.O.N.E.  Jepsen was way over his head.  It seems that only Ryan was blind to those facts.  Who the lefty specialist was going to be was not the issue.  The issue was the closer and the set-up guy.

 

 

 

[Blake]

 

Sorry, but it really misses the point.  It is not about comparing Boshers and Abad with Bastardo and Sipp.  For that bullpen to even remotely look like a contender's pen, it needed 2 pitchers better than Perkins.

 

Not Bastardo and Sipp.

 

Craig Kimbrel and Will Smith

 

That's the problem.  Perkins was D.O.N.E.  Jepsen was way over his head.  It seems that only Ryan was blind to those facts.  Who the lefty specialist was going to be was not the issue.  The issue was the closer and the set-up guy.

Would a closer and a setup guy really have made a difference this year? I don't think so. I think Brandon makes a good point when it comes to dollars and effectiveness.

[jimmer]

Would a closer and a setup guy really have made a difference this year? I don't think so. I think Brandon makes a good point when it comes to dollars and effectiveness.

there is always an excuse to not spend.

[Vanimal46]

It's encouraging to see the number of strikeouts increase. That's been a pet peeve of mine with the bullpens of past seasons. Other teams around the league transitioned to power, k-heavy arms years before the Twins did so.

 

However, the other stats you brought up ERA and FIP, have also been increasing every year in the same sample size (2013-2015). That concern overrides the encouragement of seeing more strikeouts.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It's encouraging to see the number of strikeouts increase. That's been a pet peeve of mine with the bullpens of past seasons. Other teams around the league transitioned to power, k-heavy arms years before the Twins did so.

 

However, the other stats you brought up ERA and FIP, have also been increasing every year in the same sample size (2013-2015). That concern overrides the encouragement of seeing more strikeouts.

yup, to put it altogether, it's good to see the K rate increase, but depending on Jepsen and Perkins was obviously foolish and many posters here pointed that out.

 

Is it the worst group on the team? No but that doesn't make it good. 2 decently paid and frequently available pitchers in the offseason would/could have made all the difference.

 

You can't say the same about any other sore point. They all would have taken more pieces or harder to find pieces, or much more expensive pieces to fix.

 

Where the article misses the issue is every team, especially bad ones, needs incremental improvement in every facet. The K rate is a good sign but 40 man roster disaster and the way May got wore out for lack of better available relievers indicates larger issues in talent availability that seem like they may resurface as the season wears on.

[Rosterman]

The Twins were afraid to spend any money longterm. They thought Perkins would be back. They felt Jepsen and Fien would setup. They had an unknown in Rogers for possibly long relief. They signed Abad with hopes of turning him around (they did and he is doing what they needed). They were hoping that O'Rourke would play out as a short man. They had faith in Tonkin, Pressly, Graham. They expected May to be happy in the bullpen. A lot of low end possibilities WHILE they wait and hope the young guys developed to start THIS season in the bullpen sometime after June 1.

 

No one prospect is close. Okay, maybe Chargolis. But all the others...if ANY get a September look, it will be a Miracle, which is where they are or probably should be.

 

Ryan got lucky, so far, on the scrap heap. But going forth, like Boyer, I would be hardpressed to bring any of them back next year...except that the Twins may have an overabundance of 40-man spots to fill come November and you gotta keep a couple of bodies on tap just in-case, in-case you sign a free (cough) agent.

 

I was expecting the rotation to be much better than they were...getting towards the 7th inning, so a young bullpen could work things thru. What is disappointing me most is the lack of roles and the number of bullpen arms that are just getting an out or two. And if a bullpen arm CAN'T pitrch at least an inning, then something is failing in the system...be it coaching, bodies, matchups, whatever.

 

[USAFChief]

Where this article misses the point is in thinking that getting lucky for two months on Abad, and 15 innings on Boshers, is reason to excuse lack of any meaningful effort elsewhere.

 

Good bullpens aren't one or two pitchers deep. There's no reason the Twins couldn't have added multiple options. Depending on Glen Perkins, only to get nothing from him, is an argument AGAINST Ryan's pen construction, not an excuse for the disaster it's been.

 

The bullpen is thin. That was going to be the case no matter how the rest of the team performed. That there are other problems isn't reason to excuse the offseason.

 

You won't get sympathy from me if you ignore the bald tires on your car, only to learn later you need a transmission and an overhaul too. The tires still blew and need replacement, and ignoring them was always going to come back to hurt you.

 

Likewise the bullpen. It's bad, and needed fixing.

[TheLeviathan]

I have no problem dumpster diving for the back end of your bullpen.

 

I have a problem dumpster diving for your 7th and 8th inning guys.

[Blake]

 

there is always an excuse to not spend.

Yes, and it is always easy to spend someone else's money.

[jimmer]

 

Yes, and it is always easy to spend someone else's money.

Well, when the man himself says:

 

A: that bullpen is the #1 offseason priority

B: that money is no object.

C: he was disappointed in himself for not doing more to improve it.  

 

I find it hard to be okay with the lack of addressing the bullpen.  Again, it's easy to defend inaction by using money as the reason.  It's a great fallback defense that is frankly hard to swallow after they got their ballpark built mostly by taxpayers so they could compete in today's market.

 

And the thing is, he didn't bother to try and improve anywhere else.  He actually went out and made the team worse.

[Mr. Brooks]

Where this article misses the point is in thinking that getting lucky for two months on Abad, and 15 innings on Boshers, is reason to excuse lack of any meaningful effort elsewhere.

 

Good bullpens aren't one or two pitchers deep. There's no reason the Twins couldn't have added multiple options. Depending on Glen Perkins, only to get nothing from him, is an argument AGAINST Ryan's pen construction, not an excuse for the disaster it's been.

 

The bullpen is thin. That was going to be the case no matter how the rest of the team performed. That there are other problems isn't reason to excuse the offseason.

 

You won't get sympathy from me if you ignore the bald tires on your car, only to learn later you need a transmission and an overhaul too. The tires still blew and need replacement, and ignoring them was always going to come back to hurt you.

 

Likewise the bullpen. It's bad, and needed fixing.

In addition to depending on Perkins, I'd add counting on prospects to come up and contribute quickly, which hasn't panned out at all.

[jokin]

 

I have no problem dumpster diving for the back end of your bullpen.

 

I have a problem dumpster diving for your 7th and 8th inning guys.

 

I dunno, Terry proves that you can find your closer in the darndest places:

 

[Blake]

 

Well, when the man himself says:

 

A: that bullpen is the #1 offseason priority

B: that money is no object.

C: he was disappointed in himself for not doing more to improve it.  

 

I find it hard to be okay with the lack of addressing the bullpen.  Again, it's easy to defend inaction by using money as the reason.  It's a great fallback defense that is frankly hard to swallow after they got their ballpark built mostly by taxpayers so they could compete in today's market.

 

And the thing is, he didn't bother to try and improve anywhere else.  He actually went out and made the team worse.

Well, I think money should be spent wisely. Which is why I thought Brandon made some good points. Also, considering the huge FA pitching contracts the Twins are currently saddled with, I'm not sure I really want this FO spending money on FA pitching ever again.

[Kwak]

 

In addition to depending on Perkins, I'd add counting on prospects to come up and contribute quickly, which hasn't panned out at all.

The FO didn't just count on BP prospects to contribute quickly, they expected that every young player would improve! There was expectation that this season's team was an improvement over 2015's team and that the Twins would make a serious run at the division and at worst would be a wild card. One month of baseball and it was clear to Pohlad (well nearly everybody that said expectation of success was fantasy. Spending money on "old" RP's would have only polished this turd and perhaps obscure that the Twins are awful not just flawed here and there.

[twinsnorth49]

As noted above, depending on Perkins and Jepsen and hoping you continue to roll with guys like Fien and O'Rourke, while adding guys who are effective bargains purely because they happen to be hitting above their already meagre weight class for the time being, isn't what I'd call an effective bullpen strategy.

 

Jared Burton may serve as a good example that you can sometimes turn straw into gold but it's no cause for TR thinking he's Rumpelstiltskin.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I was disappointed in the lack of effort to help the bullpen, but it was tempered by the belief that the Twins were going to be pretty bad this year. Of course, I did not see THIS coming...

 

Still, boatloads of money for Sipp or Bastardo when the team is going to be poor would only have clogged the bullpen. That excuse only works, however, if we get Shaggy and some of the boys up to let them have a taste of the show and see who performs well.

 

If we don't know any more about these guys next off-season than we do now, at least we will know that Polanco is not the only one whose future is a mystery to the front office and everyone else.

[Brandon Warne]

Sorry, but it really misses the point. It is not about comparing Boshers and Abad with Bastardo and Sipp. For that bullpen to even remotely look like a contender's pen, it needed 2 pitchers better than Perkins.

 

Not Bastardo and Sipp.

 

Craig Kimbrel and Will Smith

 

That's the problem. Perkins was D.O.N.E. Jepsen was way over his head. It seems that only Ryan was blind to those facts. Who the lefty specialist was going to be was not the issue. The issue was the closer and the set-up guy.

What? Kimbrel and Smith? I'm not even saying this in light of how hilarious that would look now, but you understand the assets that'd have been given up for those two guys, right?

[Brandon Warne]

Guys, feel free to name names you would have added. The market this offseason was whack. 

[The Wise One]

What? Kimbrel and Smith? I'm not even saying this in light of how hilarious that would look now, but you understand the assets that'd have been given up for those two guys, right?

Depends on timing. San Diego gave up Maybin and parts to get Kimbrel and a 45 million dollar debt. Boston on the other hand had to give up 2 top 100 prospects along with 2 decent ones.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I didn't really have an issue with how the Twins conducted business regarding their bullpen in the offseason. Now before you jump down my throat, please read what I wrote for Today's Knuckleball:

 

https://t.co/ViMHWhWH7Y

 

Then we can discuss. 

I agree that tying up any significant portion of payroll in a bullpen isn't a great idea. I like the strategy of having hard throwing youngsters coming up to work the low leverage early innings and after they've established themselves, they can be trusted with late inning work. This keeps the bullpen cost down and gives the team more financial flexibility elsewhere. The Twins have some guys at or near the top of the minors who can start taking those early innings. At that point the hope is that as former prospects move into closer and setup roles and become expensive, the Twins won't be forced to hand out big/long contracts. Instead they can promote from within the bullpen. Essentially its an assembly line of relief pitching that keeps rolling through the organization. Obviously some longer deals will be handed out and trades will be made but following a template similar to this, the Twins should't have to worry about overpaying for relief pitching. 

 

If TR can add a few guys like a Burton or Fien to round out the nucleus of the pen then thats great (although hopefully he stops holding onto them for 1 year too long) The biggest problem is that the first group of young guys coming up are still too far away. Signing a couple reliable bullpen arms to 2 year (maybe 1 year) deals would have bridged the gap. The Burton/Fien/Abad types are nice snags off the reliever heap, but if they're surrounded by unreliable/terrible pitchers in the pen it negates their positive impact.The Twins pitching has been horrendous this year and the bullpen is a big part of that, so I can't say that the pen is the least of the team's problems. I agree they have a lot of issues, but I also think this is up near the top. 

[Platoon]

I was one of those who thought this was not going to be a good year in the first place. I agree, no one thought it would be worst team ever status, but I was not optimistic. The whole roster was a shambles coming out of ST, not just the pitching. You cannot try and hammer your way to a successful baseball season. And while I know that roster was set by Ryan, I think that in this instance we lucked out. Ryan would not have traded a couple blocking veterans for an arm or two he would have traded a couple more guys like Hu, guys with good upside, for a chance to go from 60 wins to 70 wins? But I also thought a Chargois and Burdi would be settled in by now. Picking up top end FA relievers is for good baseball teams. Not us.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Well, I think money should be spent wisely. Which is why I thought Brandon made some good points. Also, considering the huge FA pitching contracts the Twins are currently saddled with, I'm not sure I really want this FO spending money on FA pitching ever again.

 

This... It is why I get tired of the spend/not spend debate.  The same people saying spend are the ones that wanted Sipp and Bastardo (to be clear, I wanted one of them too, or O'Day who from the sounds of things was never really interested coming here).  Sipp and Bastardo would be absolute disasters in the pen now, and there would be a commitment to keep them there, at which point we'd be castigating the front office for not dumping these guys and signing them in the first place.  And quite frankly, simply dumping them after committing millions to them isn't going to happen.

 

It might be an interesting experiment to see who was available and what they signed for.  Without looking at anything other than the big three RPs listed above, I'd be willing to bet that in general the results are less than stellar.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Guys, feel free to name names you would have added. The market this offseason was whack. 

There were a number of Cishek proponents here, as well as Shawn Kelley.  I mentioned Benoit as a salary dump pickup; K-Rod was another.  Sadly I also mentioned Mark Lowe who currently sports a 10.71 ERA for Detroit, although his was a pretty modest commitment.  I believe MLBTR suggested Madson or Soria for us, both of whom proved to be expensive but seem to be settling in effectively now.

 

It seems those that focus primarily on Sipp and Bastardo were the ones who, like you, didn't think the pen needed much help -- the theory being that we had a lot of right-handers, and there weren't many good left-handers available.  But I think those that said we were shaky from either side have proven to be correct.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not to re-hash the whole debate, but another part of this is our inactivity carried over from past offseasons -- Neshek and Gregerson were suggestions from the previous winter, for example.  Had we sealed the deal on one of those guys on a multi-year deal, we may not have needed to sign a FA reliever this past winter (or perhaps even kept Hu at the trade deadline last season, and avoided Jepsen 2016).

 

And while free agents can be a crapshoot, isn't it kind of the job of GMs to identify the good ones?  There's enough FA success that I'm not too comfortable patting TR on the back for repeated inactivity.  I want a GM and a front office who can effectively use free agency as a net positive for talent/asset acquisition.  (The Twins have obviously struggled with many of their non-bullpen FA targets, but that is a data point supporting a front office shake-up, not a data point suggesting we should retain the status quo but sit out the market more frequently.)

[TheLeviathan]

I believe, in addition to free agents, you are also allowed to trade for bullpen help.

 

Please correct me if I'm wrong....