Is Arcia the best prospect in the system?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Agreed, the Santana situation was almost unwillable....that said, they should have done better. Also agreed, Ryan quit rather than handle the situation that he created. I got no problem with that, if you are burned out you are burned out. But let's not pretend Ryan didn't create the situation by not taking care of it in a more timely manner. Same with Hunter.

Ryan definitely deserves some of the blame for the Santana situation... but nobody forced Smith to make that awful trade and nobody forced him to also trade his best young starter in the same offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

Please don't remind me about the Garza deal.....it just reminds me of everything that is wrong with this club.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Please don't remind me about the Garza deal.....it just reminds me of everything that is wrong with this club.

I remember taking most of that offseason away from baseball (lived in CA at the time). I came back around January and said "Hey, guys. Where's Garza?"

 

I was floored that the Twins moved their two best pitchers in the same offseason. The rotation went from an organizational strength to "Baker and WTF".

[greengoblinrulz]

will be interesting to see where Gibson ranks nationally. He was 61st in 2010, 34th in 2011, unranked this yr.....but others havent dropped that far when havin TJ.

OAKs Jarrod Parker was 29th in 09, had TJ in 10 but was ranked 26th & in 11, he was still 33rd despite not pitching at all the year prior. He was 26th entering this yr.

Kyle is 2 yrs older & that counts but they were closely ranked.

[CDog]

But still he got more for him (including a guy who carried his team practically singlehandedly to the 2010 postseason) ...

That's at least the second time I've seen you make that claim and fairly sure others have as well. It's utter nonsense at best. Mauer was much better than Young on the year AND for the final two months. Cuddyer had a big July that got overshadowed by the enormous ones by Young and Mauer (although he rightfully got it pumped a bit at the same time for filling in at 1B when nobody else was available). Thome was absolutely filthy good with a 4-digit OPS (OBP over .400 and SLG over .600...just wow), and was better the second half than the first. Liriano was one of the better pitchers in baseball that year, and Pavano was very good, too. The bullpen was awesome. Young had a very good year, largely on the basis of one off-the-charts-good month (and was downright awful in August).

[Mike Sixel]

Man, I just read this week's Callis chat on BA....he's not expecting gibson in the rotation until the END of next year.....I hope he's wrong on that.

[CDog]

It's a little off topic (ok, a lot), but I think everyone forgets that at the time Santana was traded he had a full no-trade clause and was really a sign-and-trade ala the NBA. So what the Mets (or whomever) really got was the 'right' to give a small(ish) left-handed pitcher with a precipitously declining K-rate one of the largest and longest contracts in history for a pitcher. I think this is what really controlled what teams were willing to offer for Santana, especially the Yankees who seemed fixated on CC even a year before he became a free agent.

 

Now, I think it is much harder to defend against the argument that they could have held on to him and gotten the prospects when he signed elsewhere as a FA. I personally believe that it would have been a cancerous situation that I wouldn't want on my team, but that is hardly quantifiable!

I tend to agree with a lot of that, in principle. The fact that Santana had basically said trade-me-or-else AND that there were only two or three posible destinations likely drastically reduced what they could get for him. My sense at the time was that it was almost a game of reverse chicken where the Mets, Sox, and Yankees would make an offer trying to get one of the others to offer more, but not really mean it with their offer anyway. I doubt anyone here knows what was actually available in that trade. I'd like to think even with what they got that it was better than what they would have been able to draft with the compensation picks if they didn't work anything out. Would it look better if Hardy (via Gomez) had been kept and played out similar to his first Baltimore year? Hmmm.

[CDog]

Man, I just read this week's Callis chat on BA....he's not expecting gibson in the rotation until the END of next year.....I hope he's wrong on that.

Big time. I've said it before, and I'll repeat it now--how much and when Gibson comes back is a HUGE variable for next year's success (and even beyone that) that is a complete mystery at this point.

[jtrinaldi]

I think Rosario is the yes in System, Hitting 300 for pretty much all of the year, Home Runs are down but his RBI production is still up. I think ideally he has the potential to be a good hitter right behind the clean up man in the majors, just because he needs other people to get on base in front of him first instead of leading off innings.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Man, I just read this week's Callis chat on BA....he's not expecting gibson in the rotation until the END of next year.....I hope he's wrong on that.

He's being realistic. Gibson was doing fairly well in AAA from a peripherals standpoint, but the ERA left a bit to be desired. He hadn't quite "figured it all out" and then got hurt. You have to figure that he's going to need to build his arm strength back up, figure out those remaining little issues, and get his control back. You cannot reasonably count on him for April of next year. You just cannot.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He's being realistic. Gibson was doing fairly well in AAA from a peripherals standpoint, but the ERA left a bit to be desired. He hadn't quite "figured it all out" and then got hurt. You have to figure that he's going to need to build his arm strength back up, figure out those remaining little issues, and get his control back. You cannot reasonably count on him for April of next year. You just cannot.

No, definitely not April. I was thinking more June/July myself but there are a lot of variables involved with his recovery.

[greengoblinrulz]

No, definitely not April. I was thinking more June/July myself but there are a lot of variables involved with his recovery.

what Im thinking for Gibson/expecting also.....couple months in ROC to see how he's doin

[Thrylos]

Re: Gibson: Remember, per Anthony, the plan is, if all is well, for Gibson to pitch at the AFL this fall. That will tell a lot of things. If he pitches well there, rehabs well in the off-season and is ready and has a good Spring Training, I see no reason why he will not be with the Twins in 2013. There are about 4-5 ifs in this sentence though....

[Chance]

I would rank the top 5 prospects in this order

1. Arcia

2. Rosario

3. Sano

4. Gibson

5. Buxton

 

My ranking isn't based on the highest upside or most potential but the most likely to positively effect the major league team based on what they have shown thus far. It is so early on for Buxton and I'm sure by midway through next season he will be number 1 but for now we just haven't seen him yet.

 

Arcia is major league ready. His bat is there and I don't see how he can't hold done right field or DH. If we trade players like span and morneau, I hope they call him up and let him finish out the year in the majors so he is ready to go by next season

[jimbo92107]

I'd take Hicks up the middle skills over Arica.

 

But love what's he's been doing.

I can see a near-future outfield of Arcia LF, Hicks CF, and Benson RF, with Ben Revere in reserve or when you need maximum defensive coverage.

 

That's a lot of speed, arms and hitting, and because they've all played center, you could shuffle them any way you want for the most effective mix. Runner on 2nd in the ninth inning, you move Hicks to LF for his rocket arm; otherwise, he patrols the big middle.

 

This could make the Twins worth watching, just for the defense.

[Thrylos]

I can see a near-future outfield of Arcia LF, Hicks CF, and Benson RF, with Ben Revere in reserve or when you need maximum defensive coverage.

 

That's a lot of speed, arms and hitting, and because they've all played center, you could shuffle them any way you want for the most effective mix. Runner on 2nd in the ninth inning, you move Hicks to LF for his rocket arm; otherwise, he patrols the big middle.

 

This could make the Twins worth watching, just for the defense.

 

Lets say that from the 4 players you mentioned, only one has proven to hit MLB pitching. Benson did take some steps back this year. Arcia is more of a RF than a LF too. Not much range. Lots like Kubel (but the 2012 Kubel, if you don't know what I mean, try to see pictures of him this season. Looks like he lost 35 lbs...)

 

I still think that Revere today is the best of these 4. In a couple years might be different story. But Revere is a major leaguer so you have to put him into the discussion....

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I can see a near-future outfield of Arcia LF, Hicks CF, and Benson RF, with Ben Revere in reserve or when you need maximum defensive coverage.

 

That's a lot of speed, arms and hitting, and because they've all played center, you could shuffle them any way you want for the most effective mix. Runner on 2nd in the ninth inning, you move Hicks to LF for his rocket arm; otherwise, he patrols the big middle.

 

This could make the Twins worth watching, just for the defense.

I would also throw Arcia in RF. Benson/Revere in LF and Hicks as the CF. Not bad on power potential either. Arcia definitely has quite a bit. Benson and Hicks would also hit more HRs than Span and Revere.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, Benson and Hicks are 10-20 HR guys with a bunch of doubles... Both could have a few 20+ HR seasons in their prime. The nice thing is that both are also above average defenders.

[Turd Furgeson]

The rest of the prospect world hasn't quite caught up, but I think Hicks is probably the best player in our system right now. He has the elite tools to be as good as anyone in the system, with a possible exception of Byron Buxton. Hicks is hitting quite well. Combine that with the other things he does really well and his proximity to the majors and I'd put him #1. Arcia is close though.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Hicks has teh tools, but he still hasn't put it together. That's my thing. I'll grant you that he plays preimer defense at a key position and should hit well above the average centerfielder as well, but he's just come on strong in AA and he's been very prone to streaks/slumps in his career thus far... A month ago, people would have been writing him off when his batting average was in the .240s. Personally, I want to give him more time before he's crowned number 1. He has Matt Kemp type potential, but not nearly enough to indicate that he's going to come close.

[Vervehound]

The rest of the prospect world hasn't quite caught up, but I think Hicks is probably the best player in our system right now. He has the elite tools to be as good as anyone in the system, with a possible exception of Byron Buxton. Hicks is hitting quite well. Combine that with the other things he does really well and his proximity to the majors and I'd put him #1. Arcia is close though.

what tools does hicks have besides an 80 arm? his hit tool is a 50 at best and that's being generous with this year in mind. power...50? 55 at best. speed. 60. defense....another 60. that's a good player considering he's a cf'er but arcia's tools are comparable. hit: 65. power: 60. defense: 50. arm: 55. speed: 50. considering our system's challenges in producing middle of the order bats, i'll take arcia's skillset.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hicks has teh tools, but he still hasn't put it together. That's my thing. I'll grant you that he plays preimer defense at a key position and should hit well above the average centerfielder as well, but he's just come on strong in AA and he's been very prone to streaks/slumps in his career thus far... A month ago, people would have been writing him off when his batting average was in the .240s. Personally, I want to give him more time before he's crowned number 1. He has Matt Kemp type potential, but not nearly enough to indicate that he's going to come close.

Not to mention that he's a year and a half older than Arcia.

[DaveW]

what tools does hicks have besides an 80 arm? his hit tool is a 50 at best and that's being generous with this year in mind. power...50? 55 at best. speed. 60. defense....another 60. that's a good player considering he's a cf'er but arcia's tools are comparable. hit: 65. power: 60. defense: 50. arm: 55. speed: 50. considering our system's challenges in producing middle of the order bats, i'll take arcia's skillset.

I think 60 is to low on Hicks for defense and I think 50 is to high for Arcia on Speed.

[Jim H]

I enjoy these prospect threads, but it always amazes me how certain everyone is about their opinions. Let's face it, at this point Wilison Ramos hasn't proven he is any more than a backup major league catcher. Sure the tools are there to be more, but there is a pretty good chance his career numbers aren't any better than Benji Molina with probably poorer defense. The idea that the Twins traded a future all star for Matt Capps is just an idea. It might happen, it might not.

 

The same thing is largely true of most of these prospects. I am high on Hendriks, but pretty soon he has to prove he can pitch in the majors. People on these threads still talk about Revere as if he will be a 4th OF. I believe his speed and hitting ability make him a major league regular. Despite their tools, none of the near ready and not so near ready prospects have proved they can hit in the majors. Until they do, Revere is ahead of them.

 

I am pretty high on the Twins farm system right now. There are a lot of potential sticks in the system and many appear to have a good chance to be elite defenders as well. I like the pitching more than most people seem to as well. If some of the guys like Gibson, Wimmers, Salcedo, Bromberg can get and stay healthy along with some of the upper level relief arms, the Twins will have some potential help within the next 2 years. Some of the lower level guys could move fast, given good health and a little luck. I am just not as sure as some of you seem to be, who is going to be good and who is going to suck.

[stringer bell]

I really like Hicks' skill set although, as verve noted, he isn't off the charts except for his throwing arm. He is a switch-hitting center fielder who can be an asset in the field, at the plate and on the bases. The Twins have too many one-dimensional players and Hicks could be part of the solution. If Hicks can continue the upswing offensively, he can be somewhere between pretty good and an All-Star. Arcia profiles as a good hitter and suddenly LH power seems to be needed for the team. If he can hit like Kubel and play defense only as well as Cuddy, he can be a good player for the Twins for a long time.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not sure why it is that everyone now thinks Arcia is going to be a slow footed outfielder. He was used as a centerfielder up until last year, and that move had more to do with him getting promoted to Fort Meyers and having to share an outfield with Hicks. I would think that in a corner position, this should translate to well above average range... No idea on arm strength and instincts....

[greengoblinrulz]

Arcia is often compared to a pre-knee injury Jason Kubel.

For those that dont remember, pre injury Kubel was considered a well above average OF with a solid arm & some speed (16sb in 04). After surgery, he had no range/speed left. IF that's the case defensively, Id take it. Never heard on any reports that he cant play the field just that with weight gain, he's no longer able to play CF. He is considered to have a strong arm, even after the surgery.

When he gets called up in Sept, we can see for ourselves, I hope.

[Riverbrian]

I'm jealous right now. What I want to see... Is a Mike Trout type guy come up from the farm. A Trout... A Strasburg... a Harper... A Middlebrooks... a Rizzo. Just one... Sometime soon.

 

Its hard to wait... Just one. Someone come up and blow the doors off.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Arcia is often compared to a pre-knee injury Jason Kubel.

For those that dont remember, pre injury Kubel was considered a well above average OF with a solid arm & some speed (16sb in 04). After surgery, he had no range/speed left. IF that's the case defensively, Id take it. Never heard on any reports that he cant play the field just that with weight gain, he's no longer able to play CF. He is considered to have a strong arm, even after the surgery.

When he gets called up in Sept, we can see for ourselves, I hope.

so in other words, keep him out of the AFL

[Vervehound]

Arcia is often compared to a pre-knee injury Jason Kubel.

For those that dont remember, pre injury Kubel was considered a well above average OF with a solid arm & some speed (16sb in 04). After surgery, he had no range/speed left. IF that's the case defensively, Id take it. Never heard on any reports that he cant play the field just that with weight gain, he's no longer able to play CF. He is considered to have a strong arm, even after the surgery.

When he gets called up in Sept, we can see for ourselves, I hope.

not sure where the kubel comps are coming from but....kubel never had speed and his range in an OF corner was fringey before his knee injury, though his arm always drew compliments. also, he never played cf in the lower minors like arcia did and i think arcia's power will top out at a full grade higher (65 to 55 for kubel). they're both lefties who can hit but arcia profiles better defensively.