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Vervehound

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Everything posted by Vervehound

  1. Vervehound
    duffey's stuff has ticked up this year and he's a legit no.3-type at this point. he's a flyball guy and will give up his share of gopher balls, but the guy can miss a decent amount of bats and is proving durable. think scott baker for a comp stuff-wise, but hopefully not durability-wsie. he'd be knocking on the tail end of any twins top ten list i did, even with our stacked system.
  2. Vervehound
    of the five twins on the lists, i'm most surprised by stewart. understood that he's been being handled with kid gloves so the lists must have taken that into account. encouraging.
  3. Vervehound
    i think your argument is refuting itself. why would a team overspend in the draft and lose picks if those were more valuable? by increasing the number of chances in the international signing lottery, you're increasing the odds of hitting on one and you have the pick of all the top talent to do so, whereas in the draft you'd be working with a limited pool of marginally signable guys after your first pick. the yankees are spot on.
  4. Vervehound
    this new system of international signings is going to be much more abused than the old one. only sitting out a year as a penalty for overspending incites those teams to go ahead and spend away every other year and, once they've started to spend, to keep throwing money at players because of the impending sanctions. this will likely result in a group of teams taking turns to dominate the market. this year it'll be the yankees and a few others, next year it'll be the cubs and what ever other team is on that cycle.
  5. Vervehound
    I'd be surprised if the twins didn't have the consensus top ranked farm system after the season. only santana will have for sure graduated from last year's top ten, and possibly meyer.
  6. Vervehound
    cederoth, clay and curtiss.
  7. Vervehound
    i count six high schoolers in round 6 and only two so far in round 7. teams are going down their lists for signability and are waiting until round 11 to go for the best remaining prep talent.
  8. Vervehound
    you realize that could be construed as really funny considering all of the arm injuries we've drafted in recent years? tootle, bard, chargois to name the first that come to mind. the twins have been entirely cavalier about incorporating medical reports into their drafting and have only recently conceded the need to do so.
  9. Vervehound
    wasn't suggesting we'd re-draft him, only that the 5th round money he signs for this year won't differ significantly from what we offered last year.
  10. Vervehound
    twins need to take some high ceiling prepsters in rounds 6-10 or this draft is subpar, imo.
  11. Vervehound
    but as a 23 y.o. college senior, he significantly lowered his leverage and will likely wind up signing for what he was offered last year.
  12. Vervehound
    no way he starts.
  13. Vervehound
    this may have ramifications for rochester as well. it's pretty nuts that the mets triple A team is in las vegas and that's an undesirable location/league, so if they move to hartford there might be a subsequent move for them to grab the red wings. i think the twins like having their affiliates in pitching/hitting neutral leagues that aren't multiple time zones away but if they move their AA operations, their AAA could follow. let's hope we can avoid the texas or pacific coast leagues.
  14. Vervehound
    i've been on nola for a long time - i believe the longest of anyone on this board (see the first few pages of the draft thread) he's a freak in that he's a consummate maestro of the strikezone while retaining plus stuff. you do seem overly enamored by raw stuff. i'd remind you that anyone not named nolan ryan will need to eventually dial back his stuff in favor of command and pitch economy. i like tyler kolek and am not scared by him being the heaviest high school pitcher ever taken in the first round. i will tell you, however, that unless he converts to the pen, he will not be throwing 100 mph bb's but will likely sit 92-95. it's cool to know that he could spike up the radar gun at the all star game like when brad penny was suddenly hitting 99mph a few years back, but for the most part that's not useful velocity and will need refining. picking between nola and kolek (what a contrast in prospects, btw) would be very difficult for me and i'd be happy if we went either way, especially because as much as i love nola, i'm not sure if he's built to be a workhorse. that said, they're both excellent prospects.
  15. Vervehound
    but there is a long history of allowing young pitchers to throw their breaking stuff and get t.j. right away. this way of handling stewart might be the next trend in for bonus baby arms - build your arm strength your first season and learn to spot your fastball and change-up, then work in your breaking stuff as you mature.
  16. Vervehound
    in what world does 3 above average pitches with 70 command and control = a no. 4 starter? that's just nonsense. nola won't be a true ace, but he could very well be a no. 2.
  17. Vervehound
    ...and i doubt the twins would pop him at no.5 but bradley zimmer should start generating that kind of buzz.
  18. Vervehound
    hoffman has had performance questions each spring and then gone on to blow people away during the summer. that's not an endorsement. he's an uber athletic guy with great arm strength who has everything riding on developing his arsenal so if he hasn't been able to do it yet.... mark appel is a similar case study: he was a guy with the arm strength and build of a hoffman who had performance questions. his freshman and sophomore stats were decent but not great and then he put it together his junior year and solidified his status. personally, i'd rather have nola than any other college pitcher not named rodon.
  19. Vervehound
    nola's velocity is up a tick this spring and he's registering lots of 94s and 95s. combine that with wicked movement and two other quality pitches and you have a stud. i love this kid and i think he'll be successful in the mlb if his arm holds up - he's not the biggest of guys.
  20. Vervehound
    the thing that bugs me most about nola is his size. i love his stuff - you could peg him as 60/60/55 for his stuff and a 70/70 for command and control. unreal numbers. anytime you get a guy with pitchability llke that you have to be careful with the comps because his stuff will play up. i don't place a lot of emphasis on how quickly a guy can get to the majors but in nola's case it's definitely an asset that he looks like could contribute by this September. if we drafted him, he might be our ace next season.
  21. Vervehound
    nola bears watching this spring. he wouldn't be my favorite choice but I admit i'm curious about him. while he has the stuff of a number 3 (and it's solid stuff), his command/control and overall pitchability make it play up and he could be a number 2 if things fall right. that's a pretty good pick for number 5 in a draft - a guy that can rocket to the bigs with potential to be a number 2? he's at least on the list. I can't believe for a second that weaver would rate ahead of nola.
  22. Vervehound
    b.a. writers visit the leagues they write about and talk to managers and staff throughout a league in the summer and fall. they weight that with their own impressions when doing an analysis. for the top 30's they do in the prospect handbook, they need to talk to an org to see what kind of progress a guy has made in the offseason, especially for a rookie baller. the league top prospects lists that come out in the fall wouldn't include players ranked in the bottom half of those org lists, so they need to be more reliant on an org's opinion because of the depth of their analysis. i don't think b.p. does a top 30 but if they did, they'd likely have to follow the same process.
  23. Vervehound
    free agenct compensatory picks are compensation for those teams losing valuable assets and don't have anything to do with market size. if the yankees are losing lots of top players due to the structure of the system, the system is designed to give them something back. the current method does a much better job of assigning compensation to players that are actually coveted, as opposed to the previous mess with type A and B. also, competitive balance picks do what you suggest compensatory picks should do.
  24. Vervehound
    nola has the stuff of a number 3 but the pitchability of a number 1. i think he could pull a danny hultzen and shoot up draft boards, but he's already pretty high. i'm all for upside myself, just stating that the twins are going to have a hard time not calling his name, imo.
  25. Vervehound
    i'm guessing the twins will be tempted mightily by aaron nola out of l.s.u. at #5. too much grit there to overlook and i'm guessing after following eades this year that they fell in love.
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