Let's talk about Suzuki's 2017 option.

[alarp33]

 

I'm saving up my Suzuki contract extension outrage for when it actually happens.

 

Seriously, though... Guys, enough with the cheap barbs for something THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED.

 

It's not funny. It doesn't add anything to the conversation. And, maybe most importantly in my eyes, it's bloody repetitive and boring.

 

There are so many things to be angry about this season, there's no need to manufacture outrage over hypothetical situations that probably won't happen.

 

It's not something we're going to start issuing warnings over (probably) but it's the kind of thing that derails conversations and puts you on the moderators' radar as a poster to keep an eye on.

 

If you don't have anything real to contribute to a discussion, just... Don't post. It's really not that hard. Please.

 

I was really just commenting on his stats for the past month being luck driven.  I threw in the Terry Ryan comment only because this EXACT scenario played out in 2014, so I do think it is relevant to the conversation about "What to do, what will happen" with Suzuki.  We talk about hypothetical trades and signings on here all day

[DaveW]

 

I was really just commenting on his stats for the past month being luck driven.  I threw in the Terry Ryan comment only because this EXACT scenario played out in 2014, so I do think it is relevant to the conversation about "What to do, what will happen" with Suzuki.  We talk about hypothetical trades and signings on here all day

I sorta get the feeling that TR knows his days are numbered, thus I would be very very surprised if the Twins sign any in-season extensions at this stage. Though I would continue to try to lock in Sano for 2-3 of his first FA years....

 

But I get your sentiment, all things being considered, the Twins catching depth is pretty much just as poor as it was a couple years ago when Suzuki was brought it. He has his warts no doubt, but Zuk is clearly the best major league catcher in the Twins org...and it's not even close!

However, as referenced above, feel free to bring him back on a one year deal as a plan B/backup, but the Twins absolutely need to figure out how to improve this position for the future.

I like Suzuki as a person, and seems like a class act all the way, however I will be pretty upset if come August 1st he is still on this club! Plenty of contending teams need catching help, both at the starter level and backup level.

The following contenders could use Suzuki:

Dodgers: Grandal has fallen off a cliff and Ellis is pretty poor as well. Suzuki conceivably be the starting catcher or at least 50/50 catcher/play the hot hand.

 

Baltimore: Joseph is a deadful backup Catcher. Suzuki would be a significant upgrade.

 

Seattle: Ianetta is solid as the starter, but the ever revolving door at backup catcher for them could potentially move them to bring in Suzuki for the stretch run?

 

Toronto: Martin hasn't been as good as last year, and their backup C situation is just pathetic, Thole in 94 AB has a 3!!!! OPS+

 

Cleveland: Terrible catching situation (at least hitting) all around.

Those are just a few that come top of mind, there are probably 5-6 other targets as well, and Suzuki more than likely will be the best catcher available by far.

[Rosterman]

To the Twins, right now, it doesn't matter who is behind the plate. You could have Drew Butera back there. But you need better framing, better calls, better arm than what you have.

 

Sadly, no one would really grab him for late season unless your main catcher goes down, your backup catcher is suitable, and you need Suzuki for what he can bring as a fill-in or off the bench. Which really isn't all that much. To put him behind the plate for a competitive team down the stretch is not any team's dream, sadly.

 

Yes, he will be a free agent next season. Will be interesting to see what offers he can get. If he can get multiple years. 

 

But the Twins need to see Murphy in August/September. They have to make a decision on Centeno. They need to bring whomever they HAVE TO PROTECT this offseason at catcher to the major leagues to get them some work so they can see what they have to work on in the off-season.

 

Or they then have to make an off-season decision. Play cheap and re-grab Suzuki, go after someone longer term (2-3 years), or fill the spot with AAAA names like Fryer and Co.

[bird]

There is no living organism in the Milky Way that believes Suzuki's 2017 option should be exercised, including our beloved GM, and we all know that.

[alarp33]

 

There is no living organism in the Milky Way that believes Suzuki's 2017 option should be exercised, including our beloved GM, and we all know that.

 

It's not going to be exercised. The discussion is whether he will / should receive a contract extension or be traded

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The following contenders could use Suzuki:

Dodgers: Grandal has fallen off a cliff and Ellis is pretty poor as well. Suzuki conceivably be the starting catcher or at least 50/50 catcher/play the hot hand.

 

Baltimore: Joseph is a deadful backup Catcher. Suzuki would be a significant upgrade.

 

Seattle: Ianetta is solid as the starter, but the ever revolving door at backup catcher for them could potentially move them to bring in Suzuki for the stretch run?

 

Toronto: Martin hasn't been as good as last year, and their backup C situation is just pathetic, Thole in 94 AB has a 3!!!! OPS+

 

Cleveland: Terrible catching situation (at least hitting) all around.

Those are just a few that come top of mind, there are probably 5-6 other targets as well, and Suzuki more than likely will be the best catcher available by far.

Grandal "fallen off a cliff" still has a 85 wRC+ not far off Suzuki's 94 (or career 86).  Grandal's BB%, K%, ISO, etc. all look good, but he's got a .198 BABIP.  (Meanwhile, Suzuki has a career high .318 BABIP. Their career BABIPs are roughly equal in the .270s.)

 

The other teams you list could certainly use a backup, but it's doubtful many/any of them would be willing and able to add Suzuki's salary in that role.  Not a lot of teams want to pay backup catchers $1 million per month.

[tobi0040]

Grandal "fallen off a cliff" still has a 85 wRC+ not far off Suzuki's 94 (or career 86).  Grandal's BB%, K%, ISO, etc. all look good, but he's got a .198 BABIP.  (Meanwhile, Suzuki has a career high .318 BABIP. Their career BABIPs are roughly equal in the .270s.)

 

The other teams you list could certainly use a backup, but it's doubtful many/any of them would be willing and able to add Suzuki's salary in that role.  Not a lot of teams want to pay backup catchers $1 million per month.

Not to mention, nobody is going to give up anything for a backup C. Although I suppose getting Murphy primary reps has its advantages as well.

 

The other quibble I have with the list is Yan Gomes is not hitting at all this year, but he is going to still play 80% of the time. He has a .717 career OPS with very good numbers in 2013 and 2014 (131 and 117 OPS+ as well as better numbers last year than Kurt). And he is signed another three years with two more options.

[DaveW]

 

Not to mention, nobody is going to give up anything for a backup C.

Drew Butera would like to have a word.

[DaveW]

 

 

The other quibble I have with the list is Yan Gomes is not hitting at all this year, but he is going to still play 80% of the time. He has a .717 career OPS with very good numbers in 2013 and 2014 (131 and 117 OPS+ as well as better numbers last year than Kurt). And he is signed another three years with two more options.

The Indians are in first place, they would be wise to play for 2016 at this stage (instead of worrying about getting a guy like Gomes reps moving forward)

The guy has a .542 OPS, and wasn't exactly lights out last year. If he continues to struggle why on earth wouldn't they put someone hitting significantly better behind the dish? At least at a 50/50 split... baseball and sports are all about "what have you done for me lately" when it comes to teams going for a title. Suzuki is one of the better hitting catchers in baseball this year, and his numbers are very similar to 2014, so perhaps instead of this "Suzuki sucks meme" we all  have grown to love, maybe it's that his sub par 2015 is the outlier at this stage? 2014 and 2016 good, 2015 mediocre.

Suzuki simply is a better option then Gomes the rest of 2016 at the plate.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Drew Butera would like to have a word.

Well, it's pretty much true, no one really gave up much of anything for Drew Butera.  The Dodgers gave up a young guy who turned out to be more or less org filler, the Angels and Royals each gave up 27 year old org filler.  And all the while Butera has been making ~$1 mil or less, so he's of virtually no financial concern to any MLB team.

 

Suzuki is making ~$1 mil a month.  A team like the Dodgers might take that off our hands to be their backup.  Very few other teams would.

[bluechipper]

 

Drew Butera would like to have a word.

And Chris Herrmann.

[nicksaviking]

Why extend him now? There is absolutely nothing he could do from here on out that would price him out of the Twins comfort level next year. If you can trade him for anything, do it. If you want him in 2017, sign him as a free agent (but please, don't go out of your way to accomplish that second part).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Indians are in first place, they would be wise to play for 2016 at this stage (instead of worrying about getting a guy like Gomes reps moving forward)

The guy has a .542 OPS, and wasn't exactly lights out last year. If he continues to struggle why on earth wouldn't they put someone hitting significantly better behind the dish? At least at a 50/50 split... baseball and sports are all about "what have you done for me lately" when it comes to teams going for a title. Suzuki is one of the better hitting catchers in baseball this year, and his numbers are very similar to 2014, so perhaps instead of this "Suzuki sucks meme" we all  have grown to love, maybe it's that his sub par 2015 is the outlier at this stage? 2014 and 2016 good, 2015 mediocre.

Suzuki simply is a better option then Gomes the rest of 2016 at the plate.

 

Like Grandal, Gomes has a .200 BABIP this year.  I'd guess it will be closer to his career mark of .295 going forward, at which point he would be mostly indistinguishable from Suzuki at the plate (especially if Suzuki's BABIP moves a bit closer to his career mark).

 

Also, Cleveland has the best pitching staff in the league.  Would they want to risk upsetting that mojo, for modest potential BABIP gains at the plate?

 

I can see the argument that Cleveland should add another catching option, but I don't know if it's a realistic suggestion.  They are a fairly frugal, conservative club, not unlike our Twins, they've already made a commitment to a catcher who is more than doing his job on the defensive side of the equation. And if they're looking for a backup, they probably don't want to pay $1 mil a month.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Why extend him now? There is absolutely nothing he could do from here on out that would price him out of the Twins comfort level next year. If you can trade him for anything, do it. If you want him in 2017, sign him as a free agent (but please, don't go out of your way to accomplish that second part).

Did you also write this in July 2014?  

[DaveW]

$1 million a month makes it sound so ridiculous, they would be paying approx $2 million total the rest of the season. (Yes, one million a month) but adding $2 million in payroll isn't a huge deal for nearly every club.

Additionally if it WERE an issue, the Twins could easily pick up 1-1.5 million of it as well. 

 

Just because the return wouldn't be huge isn't a reason to poo poo it. Keep in mind we were able to flip the "nobody" the Dodgers gave us for Butera into Nunez.

 

Suzuki is the perfect guy that can net us a "change of scenery" type player. Whats the worst that happens? The player doesn't pan out? At least then the Twins got to try out Murphy and maybe some other options at C the rest of the season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And Chris Herrmann.

It was an interesting trade, but Palka still looks more suspect than prospect.  And it appears Arizona targeted Herrmann at least somewhat for his versatility, negating the strict "backup catcher" definition.  (Maybe also some latent potential with the bat.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

$1 million a month makes it sound so ridiculous, they would be paying approx $2 million total the rest of the season. (Yes, one million a month) but adding $2 million in payroll isn't a huge deal for nearly every club.

Additionally if it WERE an issue, the Twins could easily pick up 1-1.5 million of it as well. 

Just saying that, for a lot of teams, $1 mil a month isn't trivial, especially for a backup catcher who might play once or twice a week (and less down the stretch and in the postseason).

 

It would be more like $3 mil remaining as of today.

 

And the Twins haven't shown any great inclination to include cash in deals, as easily as we know they could.

[nicksaviking]

 

Not to mention, nobody is going to give up anything for a backup C. Although I suppose getting Murphy primary reps has its advantages as well.
 

 

The Twins once upon a time gave up BJ Garbe for Pat Borders mid-season and just got Daniel Palka for Chris Herrmann.

 

That's good enough for me, as like you said, getting Murphy playing time is probably more important than any returns.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Just because the return wouldn't be huge isn't a reason to poo poo it. Keep in mind we were able to flip the "nobody" the Dodgers gave us for Butera into Nunez.

Pretty sure we could have acquired Nunez regardless of whether we had Sulbaran in our organization at the time.  He was apparently a pretty fungible asset, and Nunez was DFA'd so the Yankees cared more about clearing him from the roster than getting any particular return.

[nicksaviking]

 

Did you also write this in July 2014?  

 

Almost word for word, so glad you asked!

 

"Well reports are stating the Twins are having a hard time moving him now, in his career year.Negotiate with him after the season, he is playing at his peak now, why would anyone in their right mind think it's a good time to get into negotiations?I'll take him back (preferrably [sic] after a trade) but his price isn't going to go up from where it is now.If anything you can get him at fewer years and/or fewer dollars come the end of the season."

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/14520-twins-extend-kurt-suzuki/

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I should clarify, I don't oppose a Suzuki trade at all.  I'm not crazy about Murphy but I'd like an opportunity to evaluate him in MLB this year.  (Might have been nice to do the same for John Hicks...)

 

I just see a few more roadblocks to realistically moving Suzuki.

 

 

I also think we'd all be very surprised by an extension today, no matter how we joke about its likelihood, but depending on how the rest of the year goes, I could see us picking up his option at the end of the year, or declining it and re-signing him for a slightly lower amount to be the presumptive starter in 2017 again.

 

[ashbury]

Tough crowd... no more jokes for me.

You apparently touched a nerve. Or maybe the third rail.

[Brandon]

I think Suzuki is a solid enough player if the Twins pick up his option at the end of the year. I dont think he should get more than 1 year in any circumstance. He also shouldnt play everyday either. 100 to 120 starts. I think the Twins will sign him if they decide to go with Murphy, Stuart, Garver long term cause they can always cut him loose next year when thet are ready and he isnt producing. But if the Twins decide to go after Weiters or LuCroy or other C then Suzuki is out the door. Suzuki seems to hit better with less playing time.

[DocBauer]

I, for one, am a big Garver fan. And not just out of desperation for lack of options. He appears to have a solid bat with some power, has made steady progress, and I have yet to hear anything but positives considering his work behind the plate and throwing. But I think it's unrealistic to expect him to be a big factor in '17.

 

I believe there are teams that could use Suzuki and could find value in him for the rest of the season.nim not worried about the return. My concern is seeing what we have in Murphy, and Centeno to a lesser degree, for the future.

 

If we like what we see in Murphy, I could see Zuke signed back as a backup option. The veteran devil you know scenario.

[glunn]

 

I, for one, am a big Garver fan. And not just out of desperation for lack of options. He appears to have a solid bat with some power, has made steady progress, and I have yet to hear anything but positives considering his work behind the plate and throwing. But I think it's unrealistic to expect him to be a big factor in '17.

I believe there are teams that could use Suzuki and could find value in him for the rest of the season.nim not worried about the return. My concern is seeing what we have in Murphy, and Centeno to a lesser degree, for the future.

If we like what we see in Murphy, I could see Zuke signed back as a backup option. The veteran devil you know scenario.

When do you believe that Garver will be ready?  And what do you think will be his ceiling?

 

[DocBauer]

I would say the second half of 2017 barring injury need. I see him as an above average hitter, say .260-.270 range in any given year. I see double digit HR potential, probably topping out about 15. High 20's for doubles, low 30's with enough AB. My feeling is he'll make pretty consistent contact and has some decent natural pop.

[Shane Wahl]

If this team does not trade him, I will be astounded completely.

[CampQ]

Just imagine what Ted Williams would have done with an Axe Bat

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I would say the second half of 2017 barring injury need. I see him as an above average hitter, say .260-.270 range in any given year. I see double digit HR potential, probably topping out about 15. High 20's for doubles, low 30's with enough AB. My feeling is he'll make pretty consistent contact and has some decent natural pop.

 

That's probably optimistic.  I like him too, but his production had dropped pretty steadily as he's moved up the chain.  He's not exactly lighting up AA right now, and while his numbers are OK for a C, I think he's going to need more time.  I'd be fine with him as a backup at some point in 2017, but even that I think is rosy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If this team does not trade him, I will be astounded completely.

Astounded is one way to put it.

 

Personally, I might not watch another Twins game this season if Suzuki is on the roster September 1st. There's no reason to keep the guy. If you're such a fan of his production, sign him as a free agent in the offseason.