Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Jham]

 

You go to Vegas and put $1000 on the Twins winning the division. Then sit back until October, when you retire.

Except right now, the Twins still have the Twins pitching staff...

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Except right now, the Twins still have the Twins pitching staff...

If you are going to use logic then you are not allowed on Game Threads.

[Platoon]

I just threw up in my mouth a little bit just thinking of the slight possibility Robbie Grossman would receive 520 PAs.... And D Santana receiving 428 PAs.

 

That number of PA for RG is simply troubling! The fact that he will likely end up in LF between them in unconscionable.

[Mike Sixel]

Those are not predictions..... They just say what would happen IF he got that many at bats. Predictions come later.....

[Mike Sixel]

1:14
Ryan S: Buxton had a brilliant September. The pedigree is still there. What’s more likely: Another demotion or 20/20

 

1:15
Travis Sawchik: Buxton is one of the more interesting players to follow early in 2017. I want to believe. I’ll say 20/20

 

Travis is a new writer at Fangraphs.

[nicksaviking]

 

1:14
Ryan S: Buxton had a brilliant September. The pedigree is still there. What’s more likely: Another demotion or 20/20

 

1:15
Travis Sawchik: Buxton is one of the more interesting players to follow early in 2017. I want to believe. I’ll say 20/20

 

Travis is a new writer at Fangraphs.

 

[The Wise One]

 

Cespedes returned the Mets 7th and 16th best prospects.  That would be like us taking Buehler and some guy we haven't even talked about.  

 

Zobrist returned the Royals' 3rd best prospect, but a guy who was a fringe top 100 in all of baseball.

 

Neither of these deals remotely approach a deal headlined by DeLeon.

I really don't give a rat's tush what the prospects were rated at. When they hit the big league  it is what happens there.  Dombrowski obviously was a better judge of talent than the ranking systems who can't spot a rookie of the year. Rankings do not matter.   The return by what is on the field in Zobrist and Cespedes cases say the return on a midseason trade was better.   Manaea at the deadline trade. about the 50th to 80th  best prospect,  For 2016 and not even for a full season  he was a top 15 for left handed pitching. Billy knew a little more than the so called experts making rankings. 

[Doomtints]

 

I really don't give a rat's tush what the prospects were rated at.

 

Maybe you should, because that's the basis of this entire discussion. If Dozier is traded, he is going to be traded for prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

Jerry Johns
12:28 If Hunter Greene comes out this spring and consistently throws 97-99 mph in starts, and the slider shows half grade improvement, do the Twins take him with the first pick?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:29 If a prep righty is gonna go 1-1 then yes, that's what it looks like. I think the new regime scoops up a college arm, though.

[nicksaviking]

 

Jerry Johns
12:28 If Hunter Greene comes out this spring and consistently throws 97-99 mph in starts, and the slider shows half grade improvement, do the Twins take him with the first pick?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:29 If a prep righty is gonna go 1-1 then yes, that's what it looks like. I think the new regime scoops up a college arm, though.

 

This is at least the second time we've heard this, (or maybe it was Longenhagen who just said this twice).

 

I wonder what his basis is for this prediction. Does he know something about the Twins new guys in charge, or is there just a weird perception that new guys should or would play it safe?

 

Because it seems to me new guys are more likely to do the opposite of the old guys.

[Mike Sixel]

ASN
12:53 What are your thoughts on how Nick Gordon's bat will play in MLB?

Eric A Longenhagen
12:53 Full report: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-prospects-minnesota-twins/

I think it will be a nice little hit/power combination for a SS, nothing crazy.

[Mike Sixel]

Andrew
12:56 Hi Eric, I just want to know what Scouts think about a quick delivery when it comes to starters. Watching the Video Baseball America had on Hunter Greene showed him having a tremendously quick delivery, which screams to me more of a bullpen arm, but I am not a scout so...

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:57 Scouts definitely noticed the pace of Greene's delivery because it is unique for a starter but nobody I've talked to is concerned about it and I don't think am either. It's not bad, just different. Different is okay for an athlete like Greene, he gets the benefit of the doubt because he's so special.

 

*technically not a Twins post, but still....

[Mike Sixel]

Cutler
1:14 In a dynasty league setting would you use the projection for Thames to orchestrate a move with his value being high now or would you bank on those projections and see what he provides for your team instead?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
1:15 I'd check on the projections for Byung Ho Park form last year and draft someone else.

[The Wise One]

 

Maybe you should, because that's the basis of this entire discussion. If Dozier is traded, he is going to be traded for prospects.

No, Levi stated a midseason trade of a position player in the off season nets more than the midseason trades. 2 players recently traded in both the off season and midseason showed this to be false by the prospect's performance at the major league level versus the prospect ratings. I did forget to add the Mets gave up something of worth for Bruce mid season and now appear unable to trade him for much. I would hint that you should go look up the historical performance of prospects outside of the top 20. You would care less about the rankings.

[Vanimal46]

JT
12:23 Which team is more screwed, the Twins or the A's? The twins rebuild has gone so slowly and all of their prospects look like busts, they need to tear down again but this time they don't have anything to sell. The A's have a meh farm, a mediocre team, cheap ownership, no stadium, and they are losing their revenue sharing

 

Dave Cameron
12:24 I don't agree that all the Twins prospects look like busts, or that they need to tear down. They aren't ready to win yet, but there's still some young talent there that could improve. The A's definitely need some resolution on their stadium situation.

[Squirrel]

 

JT
12:23 Which team is more screwed, the Twins or the A's? The twins rebuild has gone so slowly and all of their prospects look like busts, they need to tear down again but this time they don't have anything to sell. The A's have a meh farm, a mediocre team, cheap ownership, no stadium, and they are losing their revenue sharing

 

Dave Cameron
12:24 I don't agree that all the Twins prospects look like busts, or that they need to tear down. They aren't ready to win yet, but there's still some young talent there that could improve. The A's definitely need some resolution on their stadium situation.

Wow ... there IS hope!

[nicksaviking]

 

JT
12:23 Which team is more screwed, the Twins or the A's? The twins rebuild has gone so slowly and all of their prospects look like busts, they need to tear down again but this time they don't have anything to sell. The A's have a meh farm, a mediocre team, cheap ownership, no stadium, and they are losing their revenue sharing

 

Dave Cameron
12:24 I don't agree that all the Twins prospects look like busts, or that they need to tear down. They aren't ready to win yet, but there's still some young talent there that could improve. The A's definitely need some resolution on their stadium situation.

 

OK, who's JT? He or she is getting points for trolling.

[Vanimal46]

I want to believe TD's own scottz submitted this question today: 

scottz

2:33 How much did the Eaton trade affect other trades like Quintana and Dozier by making it seem like everyone was just going to give away the prospect store to acquire a known MLB asset?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:33 I think teams like the Twins have become greedier.
And I think the Twins are going to get bitten in the ass on the Dozier thing.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I want to believe TD's own scottz submitted this question today: 

scottz

2:33 How much did the Eaton trade affect other trades like Quintana and Dozier by making it seem like everyone was just going to give away the prospect store to acquire a known MLB asset?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:33 I think teams like the Twins have become greedier.
And I think the Twins are going to get bitten in the ass on the Dozier thing.

 

Couldn't agree more.  

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Couldn't agree more.  

For those of you who don't follow ZiPs projections, Jose De Leon's  just came out not bad for a 24 year old starter:

 

22 GS, 111  IP, 0 97 H, 133 K, 31 BB, 18 HR, 10.78 K/9, 2.51 BB/9 3.81 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 1.5 zWAR 

[nicksaviking]

 

I want to believe TD's own scottz submitted this question today: 

scottz

2:33 How much did the Eaton trade affect other trades like Quintana and Dozier by making it seem like everyone was just going to give away the prospect store to acquire a known MLB asset?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:33 I think teams like the Twins have become greedier.
And I think the Twins are going to get bitten in the ass on the Dozier thing.

 

Is Dan assuming the Dodgers were offering way more than De Leon? Or does he just think the Twins should have taken De Leon and shut their mouths about not getting more?

[Vanimal46]

 

For those of you who don't follow ZiPs projections, Jose De Leon's  just came out not bad for a 24 year old starter:

 

22 GS, 111  IP, 0 97 H, 133 K, 31 BB, 18 HR, 10.78 K/9, 2.51 BB/9 3.81 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 1.5 zWAR 

Um... yeah. Those are ace-like numbers here in Minnesota. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Is Dan assuming the Dodgers were offering way more than De Leon? Or does he just think the Twins should have taken De Leon and shut their mouths about not getting more?

Tough to say what Dan was assuming. I'm still under the assumption that it was not a 1-1 swap. The negotiations would not have lasted over a month for a 1-1 swap. 

[d-mac]

 

Tough to say what Dan was assuming. I'm still under the assumption that it was not a 1-1 swap. The negotiations would not have lasted over a month for a 1-1 swap. 

 

I think LAD offered De Leon and a bunch of s***. The Twins wanted at least another decent prospect or two and the Dodgers said "No way Jose, you've got no demand for Dozier, we hold all the leverage, sucker! Ha Ha Ha!"

 

Unfortunately, De Leon is likely a unanimous top 20 preseason prospect, and the Twins aren't likely to get a top 20 prospect- let alone a top 20 pitcher for Dozier mid season. Then there's the whole risk with Dozier playing like hot garbage for a few months to start the season. 

[jimmer]

ThePuck: For clarification, do you believe De Leon, by himself, is a reasonable return for two years of Dozier at his price?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Dave Cameron: Think of it this way; if you were the Twins, and you already had De Leon, would you swap him for Dozier?

Dave Cameron: I think the answer is pretty clearly no.

 

ThePuck: I don’t think it’s that simple.The Twins and the Dodgers are in much different places and in much different financial categories. The Twins are in rebuild mode, with a horrible roation so De Leon is more valuable to them than Dozier for two years. The Dodgers are in win now mode trying to get better than the Cubs and Nats. Dodgers already have with a strong rotation but a weak 2B option when trying to compete with Cubs. Dozier holds more value right now, for the Dodgers, than De Leon does for them.

Dave Cameron: Agreed, which is why the Dodgers should make that trade.

Dave Cameron: But I think the Twins are making a mistake holding Dozier for some mythical better offer, and I don’t think they’ll get more for him than De Leon at the deadline or next winter.

[Vanimal46]

 

ThePuck: For clarification, do you believe De Leon, by himself, is a reasonable return for two years of Dozier at his price?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Dave Cameron: Think of it this way; if you were the Twins, and you already had De Leon, would you swap him for Dozier?

Dave Cameron: I think the answer is pretty clearly no.

 

ThePuck: I don’t think it’s that simple.The Twins and the Dodgers are in much different places and in much different financial categories. The Twins are in rebuild mode, with a horrible roation so De Leon is more valuable to them than Dozier for two years. The Dodgers are in win now mode trying to get better than the Cubs and Nats. Dodgers already have with a strong rotation but a weak 2B option when trying to compete with Cubs. Dozier holds more value right now, for the Dodgers, than De Leon does for them.

Dave Cameron: Agreed, which is why the Dodgers should make that trade.

Dave Cameron: But I think the Twins are making a mistake holding Dozier for some mythical better offer, and I don’t think they’ll get more for him than De Leon at the deadline or next winter.

I don't agree with Dave that De Leon by himself is a reasonable return for Dozier.... However, I do agree with him that the Twins are making a mistake holding Dozier for a better offer down the line. 

[jimmer]

 

I don't agree with Dave that De Leon by himself is a reasonable return for Dozier.... However, I do agree with him that the Twins are making a mistake holding Dozier for a better offer down the line. 

I'm right there with you on both of your statements (though I have consistently said, from the very beginning, that Dozier isn't worth De Leon and Alvarez/Bellinger either).

[TheLeviathan]

Dave is right, the idea that any offer will ever come along that's better is a myth.  It's more likely Dozier is roommates with Sasquatch than anything better than DeLeon is coming along.

 

I still ask for more if i'm the Twins, but that's just the truth of it.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Dave Cameron: Think of it this way; if you were the Twins, and you already had De Leon, would you swap him for Dozier?

 

 

 

This is one of the least insightful things I have read.

 

It is like saying: If you were the White Sox and you already had Luis Basabe, Victor Diaz, Michael Kopech, and Yoan Moncada, would you swap them for Chris Sale?

 

Fails to recognize the difference between rebuilding and competing.  If you reverse any veteran for prospect trade like that, it  would make zero sense.

 

(I had to edit a few epithets here...)

 

Gee!  What do you expect from a Mariners' blogger...

[jimmer]

 

This is one of the least insightful things I have read.

 

It is like saying: If you were the White Sox and you already had Luis Basabe, Victor Diaz, Michael Kopech, and Yoan Moncada, would you swap them for Chris Sale?

 

Fails to recognize the difference between rebuilding and competing.  If you reverse any veteran for prospect trade like that, it  would make zero sense.

 

(I had to edit a few epithets here...)

 

Gee!  What do you expect from a Mariners' blogger...

yeah, but that happens in quick chats. I imagine that's why a followup was asked by the poster.

 

and he's not a Mariners blogger :-)