Your 2016 Minnesota Twins: 5th in ERA, 6th in OBP, 7th in OPS, last in the AL

[Brock Beauchamp]

What a silly way to start the season. Many of the peripherals on this team aren't that bad... But they've only managed four wins in their first 13 games.

 

But hey, at least they're trending in the right direction, amirite?

 

I predicted 83-ish wins going into the season... Well, that's a hard number to stick to after an 0-9 start but hell, I'm going to do it anyway.

 

When, if ever, do you predict the Twins will reach .500 this season?

 

I say May 18th, final game of a three game set against the Tigers in Detroit. One month to close a five game gap.

[Blake]

I think your prediction is somewhat pessimistic.

 

Baseball is a crazy game. Twins get to .500 after going 6-1 in their next 7 games.*

 

*as noted elsewhere, math is not my strong suit.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Oh, and the most refreshing stat to see is that the Twins are not in last place in pitcher strikeouts... They're currently ninth in the AL.

 

That's hardly an imposing number but at this point, I'll take anything higher than 14th.

[stringer bell]

For the Twins to get to .500 and stay there, some of the 2015 "magical" hit sequencing needs to happen. IMHO, the baseball gods have been making the Twins pay back their extreme good luck the first half of 2014 with interest, so maybe it will turn around again.

[alarp33]

Kind of the exact opposite of last season, no?  Nearly last in AL in all those stats, but record in the middle half?

[Blake]

The Twins now have a better record than Atlanta.

 

 

[twinsnorth49]

With the starting pitching, Mauer's play, Arcia looking more like a pro and the worm starting to slowly turn for Sano I like this year's team for the long haul, despite the current record.

 

The pen still scares me but overall they have better positional depth and I think they'll avoid the extremes they went through last season. .....and the beginning of this season .

[tobi0040]

 

 

With the starting pitching, Mauer's play, Arcia looking more like a pro and the worm starting to slowly turn for Sano I like this year's team for the long haul, despite the current record.

The pen still scares me but overall they have better positional depth and I think they'll avoid the extremes they went through last season. .....and the beginning of this season .

 

With a very early sample, Meyer and Chargois are looking like the help.  Meyer has 10.1 scoreless with 12 k's at AAA.  Chargois has four scoreless, with 7 k's.

 

Still holding out hope that Meyer cracks the rotation and not the pen....

[Loosey]

My assumptions on when they reach .500:

 

They will take 3 of 4 from The Brewers - April 21 Record: 6-10

Lose 2 of 3 to Nationals: April 24 Record: 7-12

Win 2 of 3 vs Indians: April 27 Record: 9-13

Win 2 of 3 vs Tigers: May 1 Record: 11-14

Lose 2 of 3 to Astros: May 4 Record: 12-16

Win 2 of 3 vs White Sox: May 8 Record:14-17

Win 2 of 3 vs Orioles: May 11 Record: 16-18

Win 2 of 3 vs Indians: May 15 Record: 18-19

Win 2 of 3 vs Tigers: May 18 Record: 20-20

 

That will be pretty tough to do looking at it after writing it down.  Need to win 2 of 3 almost every series. 

 

They then Play 7 in a row against KC And Toronto beginning May 19.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Kind of the exact opposite of last season, no?  Nearly last in AL in all those stats, but record in the middle half?

Yep, pretty much.

[Oxtung]

 

With a very early sample, Meyer and Chargois are looking like the help.  Meyer has 10.1 scoreless with 12 k's at AAA.  Chargois has four scoreless, with 7 k's.

 

Still holding out hope that Meyer cracks the rotation and not the pen....

 

And perhaps most importantly Meyer has only given up 2 walks in those 10 innings.  On the other hand Duffey and Berrios seem to have taken a cue from Meyer's 2015 season so far....

[tobi0040]

 

For the Twins to get to .500 and stay there, some of the 2015 "magical" hit sequencing needs to happen. IMHO, the baseball gods have been making the Twins pay back their extreme good luck the first half of 2014 with interest, so maybe it will turn around again.

 

Right now our record and pythag match at 4-9.   35 runs scored and 50 given up.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Right now our record and pythag match at 4-9.   35 runs scored and 50 given up.

This is one of those moments where pythag falls short in its evaluation. The Twins had a ridiculously aberrant OPS with men on base for nine straight games (or two-thirds of their games played).

 

Sure, they didn't score enough runs but that was directly correlated to their insane RISP split, which wasn't going to continue (even during that nine game stretch, their bases empty numbers were actually quite good).

 

On the other hand, BaseRuns - which attempts to account for sequencing of that kind - has the Twins at a 6-7 record.

[Shane Wahl]

Mauer being "average Joe" will be huge, huge, huge. Buxton *will* continue to come along. If Arcia and Park can slug along with Sano . . . .look out for this team. And I am serious.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think it's completely a coincidence that Arcia being in the lineup has helped this team.

[tobi0040]

 

I don't think it's completely a coincidence that Arcia being in the lineup has helped this team.

 

I think he is a much bigger asset sitting on the bench and not PH for Suzuki.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I think Arcia might be the guy that 'surprises' us all this year.  I just think his big breakout may be a year late..

 

As for the OP... well, April games count as half, right?  So when do we get those losses back?    Getting back to .500.  I think end of May is reasonable if this team really is as good as we thought it would be.   Then again, if they can stay hot for another couple of days, it would be sooner. 

[jimmer]

Twins starters have the highest GB rate in the AL.

 

Twins starters are 14th in the AL in K/9IP. 9th in FIP.

 

Twins pitching staff 11th in K/9IP.  10th in FIP.

 

9th in DRS, 9th in UZR :-)

[Hrbowski]

 

Twins starters have the highest GB rate in the AL.

 

Twins starters are 14th in the AL in K/9IP. 9th in FIP.

 

Twins pitching staff 11th in K/9IP.  10th in FIP.

 

9th in DRS, 9th in UZR :-)

Did you turn to Fangraphs? I used them to help predict the Plouffe/Park breakout, and it started the next day.

[jimmer]

 

Did you turn to Fangraphs? I used them to help predict the Plouffe/Park breakout, and it started the next day.

Only for the last part because I know how much short sample size likes to be pointed out on those while short sample size seems okay for more traditional stats :-)

[Rosterman]

The secret is to break even or win series.

 

The Twins starters have been quite good.

 

They have been striking out opponents. Not quite as many as their own. But still, more than enough.

 

The other team is not batting much better against the Twins, they just leave a runner or two less in scoring position.

 

The veterans in the bullpen have been surprisingly bad overall. The new guys exceptionally GREAT.

 

It's a loooooong season.

 

You have to try and win series.

 

And start playing a bit more small ball with some of the guys. Forget about longball and big innings (big innings we haven't seen at all yet).

 

 

[jimmer]

Doesn't small ball require guys who can get on base and a team that doesn't strike out a lot?

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Doesn't small ball require guys who can get on base and a team that doesn't strike out a lot?

Yep. The Twins aren't really built for that kind of play... And that's okay. They just can't continue to do things like waiting until their 11th team homerun to hit one with a man standing on base.

[Oldgoat_MN]

When, if ever, do you predict the Twins will reach .500 this season?

 

April 17th, 2017.

 

[Oxtung]

 

 

 

The Twins starters have been quite good.

 

They have been striking out opponents. Not quite as many as their own. But still, more than enough.

 

 

 

The Twins starters are dead last in strikeouts in the AL so far this season.  

 

Out of 99 qualified starters at this point the Twins are 42, 50, 89 and 90th.

 

To me that isn't "more than enough."