Duffey v. Nolasco

[jorgenswest]

Will the league catch up to Duffey if he continues to go with two pitches? Without looking at spring data, the Twins staff can assess if his third pitch is ready. If not, it seems like the best thing to do is send him to AAA and have him refine that pitch.

 

The Twins really need to assess Duffey's readiness in this decision. Nolasco provides depth that gives the Twins the opportunity to give Duffey more time. If Nolasco gets that chance, it is on him to perform and prevent real runs rather than those attributed to his FIP or xFIP.

[David HK]

Hm.  Neither of them seized the opportunity today.  On the other hand, May's stuff looked good-- hint, hint.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins really need to assess Duffey's readiness in this decision. Nolasco provides depth that gives the Twins the opportunity to give Duffey more time. If Nolasco gets that chance, it is on him to perform and prevent real runs rather than those attributed to his FIP or xFIP.

I genuinely hope this is the case. Duffey could really use another pitch and hopefully he can work on it in Rochester.

[DiscGolfer]

I think Nolasco ends up with the #5 spot, he didn't do much to make the decision a slam dunk or anything but it does seem like Duffy needs to work on something.  It's not like there's any chance of losing him right now.  Like Birdwatcher pointed out the rotation is fluid if Duffy pitches well in AAA he'll get his chance.

 

How long of a leash will Nolasco have is a good question, I"m sure it won't be short enough for most people here.  It'll take more than 2 or 3 bad starts to pull him.  If the Twins do end up putting him in the pen they'er pretty much giving up on him at that point and then paying 12 mil for an ineffective long reliever.  I'm guessing they'll do everything possible to avoid that.

[twinssouth]

Nolasco's $25 M contract says he's 5th starter. He//, all he has to do is stand on the pitcher's mound and throw underhand to the batter and he's got the job. Meanwhile Duffey could go 0.00 all spring and brass says needs more seasoning. No pressure kid.

[jimmer]

Was there ever a doubt Nolasco would get the job?  The people who will make the rotation are exactly the ones you'd have figured would be put there.  Mediocre veterans beat young guys with potential every time.

[DaveW]

The bright side about this whole thing is I am

Going to make a small fortune betting heavy against the Twins every time Nolasco takes the mound.

 

Really a win/win in my mind. The longer the "brain trust" allows him in the rotation, the more money myself and other folks who like free money will win!

[Linus]

Nolasco's $25 M contract says he's 5th starter. He//, all he has to do is stand on the pitcher's mound and throw underhand to the batter and he's got the job. Meanwhile Duffey could go 0.00 all spring and brass says needs more seasoning. No pressure kid.

Ok, just calling BS on this.

[Linus]

Was there ever a doubt Nolasco would get the job? The people who will make the rotation are exactly the ones you'd have figured would be put there. Mediocre veterans beat young guys with potential every time.

Actually Molitor went out of his way to give Duffy the edge. He spit the bit so don't blame it on others.

[jimmer]

 

Actually Molitor went out of his way to give Duffy the edge. He spit the bit so don't blame it on others.

And Ryan, the GM, sets the 25 man roster, not Molitor, the Manager.  He said what he said about Duffy and then backed off of that statement.

 

And as far as blaming anyone, it's just the way it is.  Not sure I blamed anyone for anything. Berrios never had a chance, May certainly never did ,and Duffey was behind the vets.

[Linus]

And Ryan, the GM, sets the 25 man roster, not Molitor, the Manager. He said what he said about Duffy and then backed off of that statement.

 

And as far as blaming anyone, it's just the way it is. Not sure I blamed anyone for anything.

In collaboration with the manager. Duffey didn't do the job sorry it doesn't fit your narrative.

[glunn]

Moderator note -- please be more respectful.  Any further squabbling will result in posting privileges being suspended. 

[KirbyDome89]

I can't understand how anybody can be happy that Nolasco is potentially (probably) set to claim the last rotation spot. The school of thought seems to be Duffy hasn't pitched well this spring (he hasn't) and that he needs "seasoning," in AAA to develop another pitch and Nolasco needs to "reclaim," some value by getting a final shot in the rotation. If thats your argument did you watch the Twins at all in August and September? Duffy was their most effective starting pitch for essentially that entire period. Why does he now need to develop more in AAA? He may very well need to develop another pitch as some are suggesting and he easily could regress but he's earned the chance to prove that at the major league level.  There is nothing for Duffy at AAA other than meaningless innings. 

 

Everybody can stop drinking the Nolasco trade kool aid as well. He has NO value, NONE. Nobody is taking on that contract. If the Twins somehow did manage to ship him off they would have to eat a massive portion of the contract at which point they might as well keep him as a bullpen arm to salvage some value.He has been nothing short of awful for 2 years now so why are people even remotely optimistic that this year he somehow breaks through? He's a 33 year old innings eater who is now 3 years removed from his last decent year. We've seen Tyler Duffy have success with Twins and we've seen Nolasco look like a train wreck for 2 years now. Nolasco has done absolutely nothing to instill even the slightest amount of hope that he'll be  serviceable this year, so again, I can't understand the support I've seen for him claiming the spot. 

 

If your argument is that Duffy didn't pitch well and lost his spot you're kidding yourself. Spring training statistics don't matter, and if they did; Ricky hasn't exactly torn it up this spring either. If Nolasco is given the rotation spot it means the Twins always intended to give it to him. Duffy didn't lose it, and Ricky didn't earn it. The whole "competition," was just more lip service from TR and the gang. 

[Linus]

I can't understand how anybody can be happy that Nolasco is potentially (probably) set to claim the last rotation spot. The school of thought seems to be Duffy hasn't pitched well this spring (he hasn't) and that he needs "seasoning," in AAA to develop another pitch and Nolasco needs to "reclaim," some value by getting a final shot in the rotation. If thats your argument did you watch the Twins at all in August and September? Duffy was their most effective starting pitch for essentially that entire period. Why does he now need to develop more in AAA? He may very well need to develop another pitch as some are suggesting and he easily could regress but he's earned the chance to prove that at the major league level. There is nothing for Duffy at AAA other than meaningless innings.

 

Everybody can stop drinking the Nolasco trade kool aid as well. He has NO value, NONE. Nobody is taking on that contract. If the Twins somehow did manage to ship him off they would have to eat a massive portion of the contract at which point they might as well keep him as a bullpen arm to salvage some value.He has been nothing short of awful for 2 years now so why are people even remotely optimistic that this year he somehow breaks through? He's a 33 year old innings eater who is now 3 years removed from his last decent year. We've seen Tyler Duffy have success with Twins and we've seen Nolasco look like a train wreck for 2 years now. Nolasco has done absolutely nothing to instill even the slightest amount of hope that he'll be serviceable this year, so again, I can't understand the support I've seen for him claiming the spot.

 

If your argument is that Duffy didn't pitch well and lost his spot you're kidding yourself. Spring training statistics don't matter, and if they did; Ricky hasn't exactly torn it up this spring either. If Nolasco is given the rotation spot it means the Twins always intended to give it to him. Duffy didn't lose it, and Ricky didn't earn it. The whole "competition," was just more lip service from TR and the gang.

I believe the school of thought is simple: Nolasco is pitching better and gives us a better chance to win games right now.

[jimmer]

36 G, 35 GS, 5.64 ERA, ERA+: 70, 196 IP, 150Ks, 1.553 WHIP, 11.6 hits/9IP. 

 

Does less than impressive 20 IP in ST (sometimes against minor leaguers) erase the last two years of that?

 

[ThejacKmp]

Bad follow-through.

My wife is Filipino and they do insane things with spam.

[Blackjack]

Are you one of those folks that says this any time an athlete fails to succeed?

 

.

 

If its not the athletes fault, whose fault is it?? The coaches?? His parents?  His younger brother? The weather?  Oh I know, its Terry Ryan's fault. Sorry, I haven't drank the kool-aid yet that makes everything Terry Ryan's fault. He could give out free tickets to the home opener and some people would blame him.

 

Ultimately the player has to look in the mirror and take responsibility.  IF Duffy had pitched this spring like he did last summer, he'd be in the rotation.  Granted, there is no doubt Duffy had a shorter leash because of his youth, inexperience, and the fact he had options left. Santana and Hughes would have had to break a leg not to be in the starting rotation but too bad so sad that's the way it is. In five years maybe Duffy will be in that position but I'm not crying a river for Duffy now. Go down to AAA and pitch lights out and he'll be back by the all-star break. Go down and pout and he gets to stay in AAA all year. Thats just the way it is.

[spinowner]

Typical fan website, getting all in an uproar about the number 5 starter. Truth be told, I'm not highly optimistic about either pitcher. I think Nolasco's entitled to one more fair shot because it's well-documented that he's had injuries the last two seasons. If he does well it's like found money. If not, then whoever is the most ready at AAA can step in. As for Duffey, there have been hundreds of pitchers who had short-term success throwing breaking pitches then faded away because they didn't have anything else. If we have five other pitchers who can cover the major league rotation AAA is the best place for him to try to expand his repertoire.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 
If its not the athletes fault, whose fault is it?? The coaches?? His parents?  His younger brother? The weather?  Oh I know, its Terry Ryan's fault. Sorry, I haven't drank the kool-aid yet that makes everything Terry Ryan's fault. He could give out free tickets to the home opener and some people would blame him.

I'm not blaming anyone.  The point of this discussion isn't to assign blame, it's to point out that the job wasn't "Duffey's to lose" in any meaningful way.

[Blackjack]

 

I'm not blaming anyone.  The point of this discussion isn't to assign blame, it's to point out that the job wasn't "Duffey's to lose" in any meaningful way.

 

I disagree, he laid a goose egg and gets a free trip to Rochester as a reward. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Actually Molitor went out of his way to give Duffy the edge. He spit the bit so don't blame it on others.

I think our interpretation of Molitor's statement needs revisiting here.  First of all, the statement was made I believe once, just before spring training began, and to my knowledge I hadn't heard it repeated.  Which is unusual given how much repetition there is in baseball talking points, if the job was indeed Duffey's to lose, I think we would have heard about it again.

 

I think Molitor was either trying to give some confidence to Duffey, and/or put some pressure on Nolasco.  Or maybe he fell into the expectations trap -- high expectations for Duffey ("if he pitches like last year, the job is his"), and low expectations for Nolasco ("if he pitches like last year... I don't know if we can just give him the job").

 

In any case, like I said I am not blaming anyone for the decision, I am actually totally cool with it given our current roster and spring performances.  Just trying to discern Molitor's true motivation for making the statement, and analyze how and why so many of us bought into it.  Seth's most recent projected roster, just 4 days ago, still had Duffey in the 5th spot, the team carrying 13 pitchers, and Buxton optioned to AAA.  That is putting WAY too much stock in Molitor's nearly month-old statement, and/or riding the Duffey hype train a bit too long.  Even before yesterday's start, there was nothing about Duffey this spring to suggest that he alone could alter the hitter/pitcher balance of our roster, or force one of the top prospects in baseball back to the minor leagues -- except that little old comment of Molitor's that we bought into too much.

 

Now I think I am the only one even talking about this aspect of it, so I will let it go now.

[Linus]

Molitor repeated essentially the same thing multiple times. We are over thinking this thing: I don't like Nolasco any better than the rest of the board but they believe he gives them a better chance to win starting now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I disagree, he laid a goose egg and gets a free trip to Rochester as a reward. 

You said yourself, if Duffey had pitched this spring like he did last year, the job was his.  Unfortunately for him, that means if he was the best performing Twins starter this spring, the job was his.  That's quite a bit different than saying the job was his to lose.  You might as well say that any spot was any player's to lose, given an exceptional performance level -- a starting job was probably there even for May if he had performed exceptionally well in his early outings.  But that deprives the "his job to lose" statement of any useful functional meaning.  The point of saying "his job to lose" is to say that no reasonable performance level should matter.  Duffey being the best Twins starter this spring was never a reasonable expectation.  Duffey scuffling like he did was far more reasonable an expectation.

 

Although I do agree that Duffey had a chance, and he didn't perform well in that chance, but honestly he was never realistically the front runner.  At best he had an even chance with Nolasco, and more likely Nolasco probably had the edge and would have won out even given equal performances.  But like I said, I seem to be the only one who cares about revisiting that last point, so I will bow out.

[bird]

 

My wife is Filipino and they do insane things with spam.

 

 

True story: my wife was in the ad business and oversaw the Spam account for her agency for years. She said they never had to advertise Spam to Filipinos. They just bought the stuff on their own.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Molitor repeated essentially the same thing multiple times.

He did?  If you have a cite for that, I'd appreciate it.  I've tried to keep a eye on such statements, but haven't found any since the original one.  I doubt he more recently said anything as strong as "it would take something fairly significant" for Duffey not to get the job.

[Blackjack]

 

You said yourself, if Duffey had pitched this spring like he did last year, the job was his.  Unfortunately for him, that means if he was the best performing Twins starter this spring, the job was his.  That's quite a bit different than saying the job was his to lose.  You might as well say that any spot was any player's to lose, given an exceptional performance level -- a starting job was probably there even for May if he had performed exceptionally well in his early outings.  But that deprives the "his job to lose" statement of any useful functional meaning.  The point of saying "his job to lose" is to say that no reasonable performance level should matter.  Duffey being the best Twins starter this spring was never a reasonable expectation.  Duffey scuffling like he did was far more reasonable an expectation.

 

Although I do agree that Duffey had a chance, and he didn't perform well in that chance, but honestly he was never realistically the front runner.  At best he had an even chance with Nolasco, and more likely Nolasco probably had the edge and would have won out even given equal performances.  But like I said, I seem to be the only one who cares about revisiting that last point, so I will bow out.

Poor Mr. Duffy!!!! I think that people hate Nolasco so bad that it clouds their vision on what Duffy didn't do, and that's EARN a job in the rotation.

[alarp33]

 

Poor Mr. Duffy!!!! I think that people hate Nolasco so bad that it clouds their vision on what Duffy didn't do, and that's EARN a job in the rotation.

 

He pitched 12 innings this Spring?  Ok.  

 

For the record, I'm not the biggest Duffey fan, I don't see him as a long term piece for this rotation.  But it's absurd to act like he cost himself a job with 12 stinking innings this Spring

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

My sources tell me that Terry Ryan is preparing to announce that Miguel Sano will be moved into the starting rotation. "We think the young man has the athleticism and live arm to make the switch. He's been throwing great after Tommy John surgery, and we think the time is now to make the change."

 

Seriously, this is a potential WIN situation awaiting everyone if Ricky Nolasco is named the fifth starter, and Tyler Duffey goes to Rochester.

 

• Duffey wins by getting to work on that third pitch in AAA, and solidifying his future MLB career with a more diverse arsenal of pitches.
• Nolasco doesn't have to pull a Pelfery and whine about being sent to the bullpen. He WINS by getting a chance to resurrect his career.
• Jose Berrios and other potential AAA starters win by earning a call up if/when Nolasco implodes.
• And finally the Twins Organization wins by avoiding Super Two status on Berrios, and potentially Duffey too. They also get to recoup some value on the Nolasco investment if Ricky does click as the fifth starter. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/business/super-two/

 

See, everybody wins... Except perhaps the fans...

 

[Comrade Bork]

Molly might like Duffy but the fact that he was the only starting candidate with minor league options left daggered his chances before camp even started. I was surprised most people seemed to think he would make it. Nolasco's contract too stronk.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Nolasco's contract too stronk.

Too stronk indeed.