Article: Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 4.0

[DJL44]

 

The bench would consist of Nunez, a backup catcher, and 2 DH's (Arcia, Quentin). Mastroianni makes more sense in a scenario where you are releasing Santana

 

But the starters include Rosario who can play all 3 outfield positions. I agree that it isn't likely but it is a configuration they may try at some point this season.

[GusRichards]

Here is how I see the Opening Day roster....

 

LF-Rosario, CF-Buxton, RF-Sano, 3B-Plouffe, SS-Escobar, 2B-Dozier, 1B-Mauer, C-Suzuki, DH-Park

 

Bench: Nunez, Santana, Arcia and Centeno (I think Murphy gets sent to AAA for a month or so to gain confidence)

 

Starters: Santana, Gibson, Hughes, Milone and Nolasco (Duffey goes to AAA to team with Berrios and Meyer)

 

RP: Perkins, Jepsen, May, Fien, Abad, Pressley and Runzler (who has had an "ok" run in the majors so far).

 

13 Position players

12 Pitchers

 

Buxton needs to be in CF and learning to the majors.  I actually feel kind of bad for Quentin as he hasn't done anything to NOT make the team, but faith is still held for Arcia to break out.  Problem is, by next year we could have Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Arcia and Kepler...can't keep them all.

 

As for the Nolasco/Duffey debate, Nolasco is a .500 pitcher, which works well in the 5th spot of the rotation.  Then add in the money he is being paid.  Let Duffey figure out a change-up at AAA.  The hope can be that Nolasco has a better than decent year and is tradable at the deadline.  And actually, who would you rather have pitching, Nolasco, Duffey or Berrios?  But I also think Nolasco will be on a very short leash.

 

Then the bullpen....ugh.  Ok, Perk, Jepsen, May (I actually prefer him in the BP), Fien, Abad and Pressley are pretty much givens.  That last spot is the only real spot I see open.  And I would like another lefty, and will give the nod to Runzler, who has been ok in the majors so far in his career.  O'Rourke had a taste last year, but realistically, he hasn't even chewed up AAA yet, so maybe he needs to cut his teeth there a little more.  The dream would be that O'Rourke figures it out quickly and Fien loses it, that would make 3 righties and 3 lefties.  My only problem with this BP then is that there is no long man, unless May or Pressley take that spot.

[bluechipper]

 

Here is how I see the Opening Day roster....

 

LF-Rosario, CF-Buxton, RF-Sano, 3B-Plouffe, SS-Escobar, 2B-Dozier, 1B-Mauer, C-Suzuki, DH-Park

 

Bench: Nunez, Santana, Arcia and Centeno (I think Murphy gets sent to AAA for a month or so to gain confidence)

 

Starters: Santana, Gibson, Hughes, Milone and Nolasco (Duffey goes to AAA to team with Berrios and Meyer)

 

RP: Perkins, Jepsen, May, Fien, Abad, Pressley and Runzler (who has had an "ok" run in the majors so far).

 

13 Position players

12 Pitchers

 

Buxton needs to be in CF and learning to the majors.  I actually feel kind of bad for Quentin as he hasn't done anything to NOT make the team, but faith is still held for Arcia to break out.  Problem is, by next year we could have Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Arcia and Kepler...can't keep them all.

 

As for the Nolasco/Duffey debate, Nolasco is a .500 pitcher, which works well in the 5th spot of the rotation.  Then add in the money he is being paid.  Let Duffey figure out a change-up at AAA.  The hope can be that Nolasco has a better than decent year and is tradable at the deadline.  And actually, who would you rather have pitching, Nolasco, Duffey or Berrios?  But I also think Nolasco will be on a very short leash.

 

Then the bullpen....ugh.  Ok, Perk, Jepsen, May (I actually prefer him in the BP), Fien, Abad and Pressley are pretty much givens.  That last spot is the only real spot I see open.  And I would like another lefty, and will give the nod to Runzler, who has been ok in the majors so far in his career.  O'Rourke had a taste last year, but realistically, he hasn't even chewed up AAA yet, so maybe he needs to cut his teeth there a little more.  The dream would be that O'Rourke figures it out quickly and Fien loses it, that would make 3 righties and 3 lefties.  My only problem with this BP then is that there is no long man, unless May or Pressley take that spot.

I think Abad, Centeno, and Runzler would all have to be added to the 40-man, and it's at 39 right now. I would guess they just go with Tonkin for the last bullpen spot. Centeno is probably behind John Hicks on the depth chart too.

[scottz]

Starting Pitchers (5):
Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco

Relief Pitchers (7):

Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Casey Fien, Fernando Abad, Ryan Pressly, Dan Runzler

Catchers (2):

Kurt Suzuki, John Ryan Murphy

Infielders (6):

Joe Mauer, Byung Ho Park, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe, Eduardo Nunez

Outfielders (4):

Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Oswaldo Arcia

Utility (1):

Danny Santana

 

Tyler Duffey - AAA to battle for next man up when one of the starters gets injured

Michael Tonkin - wherever fate takes him - traded, lost on waivers, or AAA

John Hicks/Juan Centeno - AAA to start, then part of a 3-headed John/John/Juan rotation of backup catchers running back and forth between MLB and AAA with Murphy

Ryan O'Rourke - AAA...which I think is kind of too bad. I think he's a good piece.

 

I'm not sure how that all works out with the 40 man though, so maybe this is all nonsense.

Edit: too many relievers

[bluechipper]

I've seen two posts predicting Dan Runzler making the team, and I'm not sure why. He had a 5.26 ERA in about 37 innings at AAA (PCL, but still) with almost 7 BB/9 last year. He's also only got 2 Ks in 8 innings this spring.

[gocgo]

Starting Pitchers:Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco
Relief Pitchers:Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Casey Fien, Fernando Abad, Ryan Pressly, Michael Tonkin
Catchers: Kurt Suzuki, John Ryan Murphy
Infielders: Joe Mauer, Byung Ho Park, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe, Eduardo Nunez
Outfielders: Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Oswaldo Arcia
Utility:Danny Santana

 

It's a lock.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Also the Twins usually have 2 or 3 off days in February making me think the Twins will start the season with 7 relievers instead of 8

The Twins usually have a lot more than 2 or 3 off days in February.

 

Actually, during the season, 3 off days per month is standard.  The only months that don't have 3 off days are July (all-star break) and August (2).

 

But I agree, 7 relievers is by far the likeliest configuration.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I've seen two posts predicting Dan Runzler making the team, and I'm not sure why. He had a 5.26 ERA in about 37 innings at AAA (PCL, but still) with almost 7 BB/9 last year. He's also only got 2 Ks in 8 innings this spring.

Yeah, I'm not understanding the Runzler predictions either.  Unless they mean Kintzler?  

[nater79a]

I think Buxton sticks in CF.

 

Nolasco in the rotation, Duffey to AAA.

 

Jetttison Tonkin from the 40-man. If he clears, fine. If he doesn't, well, he doesn't really fit in long-term with Burdi, Reed, Chargois on the horizon. 

 

More importantly, grab a 3rd lefty for the pen...either Runzler or O'Rourke. Here's why: Look at the early schedule for the first month and all the big-stick lefties we'll need to face.  First two series - Chris Davis, Pedro Alvarez, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer. There's a little gap where the Angels and Brewers don't have a scary LH hitter. But then we run into the Nats and Indians. Bryce Harper, Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis. Early season screams for an additional one-hitter, situational lefty out of the bullpen. Can't burn Abad for one hitter every game.

[USAFChief]

 

Yeah, I'm not understanding the Runzler predictions either.  Unless they mean Kintzler?  

Is there a discernible difference? 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

My gut tells me Buxton will continue to struggle at the major league level - but will get the opening day spot.  I do think he will be on a relatively short leash however.  If he is not producing by mid-May he could get sent down.

 

Not sure what this all means for Tonkin. The Twins seem to be stacked with right handed relievers in the minors.  While it would be a shame to run the risk of losing him through waivers - it may be what they are faced with to get Buxton on the roster.  

[alarp33]

 

My gut tells me Buxton will continue to struggle at the major league level - but will get the opening day spot.  I do think he will be on a relatively short leash however.  If he is not producing by mid-May he could get sent down.

 

Not sure what this all means for Tonkin. The Twins seem to be stacked with right handed relievers in the minors.  While it would be a shame to run the risk of losing him through waivers - it may be what they are faced with to get Buxton on the roster.  

 

Huh? Buxton is a center fielder, Tonkin is a relief pitcher

[savvyspy]

I think Quentin has a chance to make the team. Sano will have to be yanked out of the lineup almost every game for defensive reasons and Molitor is going to need a bat for the late innings after he's forced to pull his cleanup hitter. They will start the season with Sano, Rosario, and Buxton with Quentin and hopefully Arcia. Mastroianni has a decent minor league deal so he's probably the first guy called up even before Kepler in my opinion. Honestly they have a number of good options right now in the outfield. I wish they weren't trying to stash Sano but my guess is that sorts itself out in the first 2 months of the year.

 

Ryan seems to have found a way to make the bullpen worse than last year which is kind of impressive considering how many options he had to make it better. They could have almost complete turnover over the season. I only trust Jepsen and May at this point. The closer is a question mark and the rest of them are replacement level on a good day. I would start with Pressly, Fien, and Tonkin (since he's out of options) and maybe Abad although he's looked pretty average. O'Rourke is useless. Hopefully we see a number of prospects by June or July.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Huh? Buxton is a center fielder, Tonkin is a relief pitcher

Seth's roster projection had Buxton in AAA, and Tonkin on the team (as one of 8 relievers).

[alarp33]

 

Seth's roster projection had Buxton in AAA, and Tonkin on the team (as one of 8 relievers).

 

Ok thanks for clarifying... I'll just leave that one alone... 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Is there a discernible difference? 

As far as I can tell, RUNzler gives up runs (5.26 ERA at AAA last year), and KINtzler is almost kin (spent the last 6 years in Milwaukee).

[MileHighTwinsFan]

 

Huh? Buxton is a center fielder, Tonkin is a relief pitcher

You need to read the story.  Seth was discussing whether the team will carry 13 pitchers or 12.  If they give Buxton a roster spot, along with Sano, Santana, Arcia and Rosario - they will need to make a choice on the number of pitchers they carry.   If they send Buxton down, they can keep Tonkin. 

[jay]

I hate to even ask this, but...

If there is some wavering on Buxton as the Opening Day CF, how long would he have to be in AAA to gain another year of control? Late July-ish?

[jorgenswest]

I have serious questions about whether Nolasco's difference between FIP and ERA is based on 10 years of bad luck or rather his skill in pitching with runners on base. His career splits with runners on base are very different than with bases empty. Maybe he only has bad luck with runners on base or maybe it is a skill. If it is a skill, it is one that shows up in ERA and not FIP.

 

In either case, the starting rotation is the spot. He is the last pitcher I want coming in with runners on base. I would suggest the Twins start him and give him a very short leash with runners on base innings 5 and later. Let's see how he does his first 8 starts. If he doesn't perform well, release him and go with Duffey or Berrios. If Nolasco can pitch as a mid rotation starter this year, it will go a long way toward a successful season.

[Thrylos]

 

Is there a discernible difference? 

 

Different throwing arm, about 5 inches in height and a good 40 lbs.

 

You don't want the lefty around if you are cooking in your back yard...

[Brandon]

 

Yeah I was going to comment, I'm not sure how he sees Arcia and Quentin making the team.  

 

Quentin has hit the ball ok this Spring, I don't think that changes anything that everyone said back when he was signed. He doesn't fit the roster in the least... I could see him making sense if Park was so overmatched in Spring they needed to send him to AAA, but that's obviously not the case

Both Arcia and Quinten can make the team if they carry 12 pitchers to start the season

I do see Quinten as DH insurance.  Kind of like a Jim Thome when he was here (the second season he was here) .  but when I made my comments earlier I was looking at each one on their own merits.  meaning Quinten hasn't done anything to not deserve to make the team at this point.  and Arcia wasn't showing the results needed to make the team either.  so either could make the team and is justified or both. 

[jimmer]

We need DH insurance like we need more boringly average-below average starting pitchers.

Edited March 26, 2016 by jimmer

[Rezzy]

Buxton will travel north with the team. The 'out of options 3' all go north as well but the leash is short.

 

If this team starts cold like last year plan B goes into full effect. Plan B might be some young flame throwers, Polanco, Quentin, Duffey, and Hicks.

[DaveW]

I think starting Buxton in the majors could be a mistake, I think if they could have him start in AAA for a month or two and gain some confidence at the dish it would do a World of good for his game. Unfortunately, plan B is to have either Santana in the OF everyday, or Arcia and Sano in the OF every day, yikes.

 

Tonkin needs to be cut. He just doesn't have the upside warranted to give him a major league roster spot and "wait" to see if he figures it out. Let him TruTV catch on somewhere else and maybe he ends up being an ok 6th inning type.

Edited March 26, 2016 by DaveW

[Seth Stohs]

 

I've seen two posts predicting Dan Runzler making the team, and I'm not sure why. He had a 5.26 ERA in about 37 innings at AAA (PCL, but still) with almost 7 BB/9 last year. He's also only got 2 Ks in 8 innings this spring.

 

Yeah, I'd be shocked too if he made it.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I hate to even ask this, but...
If there is some wavering on Buxton as the Opening Day CF, how long would he have to be in AAA to gain another year of control? Late July-ish?

 

A long time... which means that this decision, whatever they decide, is solely based on baseball reasoning, not any of that business, service time stuff.

[DiscGolfer]

If Buxton starts the year in AAA, which I don't think will happen, I could see Mastroianni getting the start in center.

[alarp33]

You need to read the story.  Seth was discussing whether the team will carry 13 pitchers or 12.  If they give Buxton a roster spot, along with Sano, Santana, Arcia and Rosario - they will need to make a choice on the number of pitchers they carry.   If they send Buxton down, they can keep Tonkin.

 

1) Tonkin is not in a competition with Buxton, never has been, never will be.

2) I would put the odds of carrying 13 pitchers to start the season somewhere between 0 and 1%, but lean much closer to the 0 side of that.... It's absurd to even discuss the possibility

[Thrylos]

 

If Buxton starts the year in AAA, which I don't think will happen, I could see Mastroianni getting the start in center.

 

Then Ryan would have learned zero from 99+96+96+92

[Rosterman]

Buxton starts the season and bats ninth? Or lead-off?

 

Arcia is the bat off the bench. In a pinch, Nunez and Santana can supposedly play the outfield, too.

 

Tonkin gets the magic coupon and stays on the roster. But if he doesn't produce, and the Twins need to flip out Buxton for, say, Mastro, then Tonkin is the odd body to go.

 

Barring an injury, the Twins really don't have many names to remove on the 40-man roster. Tonkin is one. Pat Dean is another. Then you start getting into Landa, O'Rourke, Pressle, Graham, Rogers or letting go Fien if he doesn't stay consistent. Or even Polanco or Vargas. But besides the first two mentioned, you pretty much WANT to keep everyone else, barring a trade. (The Twins have some hard 40-man decision for 2017).

 

So picture some of the raw talent pitchers seeing action if someone goes on the short-term DL. And Polanco, Vargas and Kepler are it for minor league position player call ups!