Article: Player Projections: The Catchers

[Seth Stohs]

Today we begin a new series here at Twins Daily in which we will attempt to project how the Twins projected Opening Day roster will perform in 2016. Each day over the next week, we’ll consider a position at a time. Today we start with the catchers.In 2015, the Minnesota Twins had one of the worst, if not the worst, performing catchers in baseball. Offensively, the Twins catchers combined to hit just .224 (24th best in baseball) and a .596 OPS (29th in baseball). Defensively, Twins catchers combined to throw out just 19% of would-be base stealers, worst in baseball. As I wrote last week, the Twins subtracted a couple of catchers and added three new catchers.

 

THE CANDIDATES

 

Kurt Suzuki (32) enters his tenth big league season. After an All-Star season in 2014 (or at least 2/3rds of a season), he struggled offensively and defensively in 2015. In 131 games, he hit .240/.296/.314 (.610). While defensive metrics show that he is below average, teammates (and especially pitchers) appreciate the leadership that he brings.

 

John Ryan Murphy (24) came from the Yankees this offseason in exchange for Aaron Hicks. In 67 games last year with the Pinstripes, he hit .277/.327/.406 (.734) with nine doubles and three home runs. He has spent time as a backup the last three years, serving primarily as a backup.

 

John Hicks (26) and Juan Centeno (26) will be at AAA.

 

SITUATION

 

Suzuki could certainly benefit from playing less than the 131 games he’s played each of the last two seasons. In theory it should make him more productive. Meanwhile, the still-very young Murphy should get more time. Suzuki starts the season as the starter and will likely get more playing time than Murphy early in the season. However I would expect that over time, Murphy will eat into that playing time and eventually get more than 50% of the time.

 

Theoretically, it should create a better situation. As much as Suzuki wants to play a lot, having fresher legs should help him offensively and defensively. Conversely, Murphy can benefit from playing more regularly. He’s still young enough and inexperienced enough that we don’t know how he’ll handle the fuller workload.

 

KEY NUMBER

 

485. The number of plate appearances that would trigger Kurt Suzuki’s 2017 vesting options for $6 million. As much as Suzuki is liked and respected in the Twins clubhouse, it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Twins will let Suzuki approach that number. Even last year when he played in 131 games, he recorded just 479 plate appearances.

 

PROJECTIONS

 

Kurt Suzuki: 332 at-bats, .271/.320/.334 (.654), 15 doubles, two home runs.

John Ryan Murphy: 353 at-bats, .280/.337/.407 (.744), 19 doubles, 1 triple, 8 home runs.

 

YOUR TURN

Now it’s your turn. Share your thoughts on and projections on the Twins catchers in 2016.

 

Click here to view the article

[ashbury]

Murphy's having a poor Spring at the plate. SSS and all, but I would have felt better if it weren't so.

 

But then again I don't believe Centeno's spring numbers, so I guess I should ignore all of the numbers. Just like I tell myself each off-season.

[markos]

Here is what the projection systems think:

ZIPS
Suzuki: .253/.305/.334 (.639)
Murphy: .245/.295/.379 (.674)

Steamer
S: .253/.308/.354 (.662)
M:.253/.306/.394 (.700)

Marcels
S: .254/.311/.351 (.663)
M: .269/.323/.396 (.719)

PECOTA
S: .247/.299/.349 (.648)
M: .254/.305/.390 (.695)

 

Seth is quite optimistic about Murphy and middle-of-the-pack on Suzuki.

[Jgcarew]

Yeah 50%. Same rating rotten tomatoes gave "trouble with the curve"

[Seth Stohs]

 

Yeah 50%. Same rating rotten tomatoes gave "trouble with the curve"

 

Which is a classic, by the way! Ha!

[Major League Ready]

 

Here is what the projection systems think:

ZIPS
Suzuki: .253/.305/.334 (.639)
Murphy: .245/.295/.379 (.674)

Steamer
S: .253/.308/.354 (.662)
M:.253/.306/.394 (.700)

Marcels
S: .254/.311/.351 (.663)
M: .269/.323/.396 (.719)

PECOTA
S: .247/.299/.349 (.648)
M: .254/.305/.390 (.695)

 

Seth is quite optimistic about Murphy and middle-of-the-pack on Suzuki.

I guess the good news is that the average of the four would have Murphy's OPS to be 44 points higher than Suzuki and he should control the running game better. 

[Jgcarew]

There was an article about Murph having trouble w/ the curve. Hope that's not the case. If he's half s good as the movie i'd be happy

[HitInAPinch]

Was hoping Murphy would hit better than he has.  Centeno was fun to watch.

[tobi0040]

I will say that if Murphy is sniffing a .744 OPS, these two better not be splitting reps.  There is just no reason for that. 

 

Time to stop giving in to veterans.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Seth is quite optimistic about Murphy and middle-of-the-pack on Suzuki.

Interestingly, though, Seth's projected line for Suzuki is heavy on AVG/OBP but light on SLG.  Relative to league average, Seth's predicted batting average and OBP for Suzuki would be the second and third highest marks of his career, respectively, but Seth has it coupled with a career-low ISO.  That's definitely not what the projection systems are saying.

[DaveW]

Two mediocre catchers doesn't make a right, hopefully Murphy can hit like Seth says, I just don't see it. Hopefully the Twins can address the position long term later this season (dump Suzuki for anything you can get and trade for a legit starting catcher) or this off season.

[Loosey]

Suzuki: .255/.290/339  20 doubles 2 HR's

Murphy: .271/.300/.403 23 doubles 7 HR's and 1 Triple

[Thrylos]

 

Kurt Suzuki: 332 At Bats, .271/.320/.334 (.654), 15 doubles, two home runs.
John Ryan Murphy: 353 At Bats, .280/.337/.407 (.744), 19 doubles, 1 triple, 8 home runs.

 

If you exclude the aberration of 2014, you have to go back to 2008 for Suzuki to have higher than .313 OBP.  I just don't see it happening again.   His 2014 BABIP was about .310 where his norm was at about .240-.250, so clearly that season was abnormal.   2015 was actually better for Suzuki than either 2012 or 2013, so I think that this is about as much as we can expect from him.

 

My take: .230/.280/.310 and DFA to bring up Hicks.

 

.260/.310/.370 is likely more realistic for Murphy.  Hope he does better, but I don't expect it.

Edited March 21, 2016 by Thrylos

[alarp33]

 

My take: .230/.280/.310 and DFA to bring up Hicks.

 

 

 

The numbers look right, thinking the Twins will actually DFA a veteran guy like Suzuki made me LOL though.  Even if he puts up those numbers, I bet he has at least as many, if not more at bats as Murphy by the end of the year. 

[Vanimal46]

I'm hoping it's not a near 50/50 split between Murphy and Suzuki. I could see that split for the first month and change, but beyond that I'd like to see a 65/35 split favoring Murphy.

 

IMO .744 OPS is pretty optimistic. Getting to .700 OPS should be the goal.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think Murphy should OPS around .700, which isn't bad for a catcher.  The kid still has some upside, and was above average in his minor league career every stop of the way, while being young for his age.  He may never have an .800 OPS, but he should be a solid backstop for this team the next few seasons. 

 

I do think that Suzuki would benefit from less PT.  .700 is probably pushing it for his OPS though.

[jimmer]

Murphy played half his games in Yankee Stadium, had a season BABIP in the high .350s, and ended up with an OPS in the .730s.  I'm not sure he can sustain a .700 OPS at the MLB level away from a hitter's park and without a very high BABIP.  His minor league OPS was only in the 730s.

Edited March 21, 2016 by jimmer

[Willihammer]

I'm starting to worry the Twins got fleeced in that trade. Murphy looks like a slap hitter at best.

[tobi0040]

If Murphy has a 700 OPS, it would be hard to say this was not a good trade for the Twins.

 

Hicks does not have the upside of Buxton, Sano, or Kepler and is going to get more expensive than Rosario. And we just don't have anyone in our system that can put up a 700 OPS as a catcher.

Edited March 21, 2016 by tobi0040

[Willihammer]

 

If Murphy has a 700 OPS, it would be hard to say this was not a good trade for the Twins.

Hicks does not have the upside of Buxton, Sano, or Kepler and is going to get more expensive than Rosario. And we just don't have anyone in our system that can put up a 700 OPS as a catcher.

Good point. The system got so wildly out of balance that maybe it would be unrealistic to expect fair value for Hicks.

 

Maybe I am too anxious after watching yesterday's game. Hicks was so solid (and has been all spring, at least at the plate) and Murphy was... unspectacular (and has been all spring).

 

Must give it time...

[tobi0040]

 

Good point. The system got so wildly out of balance that maybe it would be unrealistic to expect fair value for Hicks.

 

Maybe I am too anxious after watching yesterday's game. Hicks was so solid (and has been all spring, at least at the plate) and Murphy was... unspectacular (and has been all spring).

 

Must give it time...

 

Balance our roster was important.

 

The other piece is bat relative to the position.  So it isn’t fair for us to say, Hicks had a higher OPS than Ryan, therefore it was a bad trade.

 

Using 250 AB qualifier, the top catcher had an OPS of .849 vs. the top LF at .886 (Posey and Colabello). 

 

#10 was Mccan at .756 and the LF Khris Davis at .828. 

 

#20 was the catcher Joseph at .693 vs. LF Coghlan at .784.

 

On a side note, never thought Colabello would lead the league in LF OPS.

[Willihammer]

 

Balance our roster was important.

 

The other piece is bat relative to the position.  So it isn’t fair for us to say, Hicks had a higher OPS than Ryan, therefore it was a bad trade.

 

Using 250 AB qualifier, the top catcher had an OPS of .849 vs. the top LF at .886 (Posey and Colabello). 

 

#10 was Mccan at .756 and the LF Khris Davis at .828. 

 

#20 was the catcher Joseph at .693 vs. LF Coghlan at .784.

 

On a side note, never thought Colabello would lead the league in LF OPS.

I get that. To complete the picture though, Hicks is definitely going to be an above average glove in the corner. Murphy's glove is much more of a question mark IMO.

 

On another side note, the Gardner-Ellsbury-Hicks configuration is going to cover a lot of ground for the Yanks.

[tobi0040]

 

I get that. To complete the picture though, Hicks is definitely going to be an above average glove in the corner. Murphy's glove is much more of a question mark IMO.

 

On another side note, the Gardner-Ellsbury-Hicks configuration is going to cover a lot of ground for the Yanks.

 

Good point about the defense.  It sure seems like the Yankees have followed the Royals playbook with OF defense and the pen.

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs ranking of the catching groups this year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-positional-power-rankings-catcher/

 

Some funny lines, not just in the Twins' writeup.

 

I think Murphy will overtake Suzuki, and log about 65% of the catching duties after mid-June or so.

Edited March 21, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[DaveW]

Good point about the defense. It sure seems like the Yankees have followed the Royals playbook with OF defense and the pen.

Hey the Twins are to! Adding Sano to the OF and Abad to the bullpen is pretty much the same thing!

[jimbo92107]

Given Centeno's spring numbers, why not go with the hot hand and keep Centeno on the roster as a bench bat/3rd catcher? Or maybe Murphy's the one that needs a little work in AAA. You can always swap them later, if Centeno's bat goes cold. Meanwhile, you've got a hot bat with good D in Centeno. What's not to like?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Given Centeno's spring numbers, why not go with the hot hand and keep Centeno on the roster as a bench bat/3rd catcher? Or maybe Murphy's the one that needs a little work in AAA. You can always swap them later, if Centeno's bat goes cold. Meanwhile, you've got a hot bat with good D in Centeno. What's not to like?

 

Spring training numbers matter?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Given Centeno's spring numbers, why not go with the hot hand and keep Centeno on the roster as a bench bat/3rd catcher? Or maybe Murphy's the one that needs a little work in AAA. You can always swap them later, if Centeno's bat goes cold. Meanwhile, you've got a hot bat with good D in Centeno. What's not to like?

Who would you cut to make room for him?  He would need a 40-man roster spot, and Tonkin's is probably going to Abad.  Also, his spring numbers are in 15 PA, against an average of just a hair under AA-level competition, according to B-Ref (OppQual of 6.9).

[jimbo92107]

Spring training numbers matter?

In Centeno's case, maybe he figured something out. Or maybe he's sitting on multiples of the same pitch while a pitcher sharpens his stuff. Three hooks in a row? Please do!

 

My point is that we're looking at a fairly young, good D catcher that's clearly seeing the ball well right now. Since we're talking about Suzuki's backup and it's early in the season, what do we care if the backup is him or Murphy? 

[jimbo92107]

Who would you cut to make room for him?  He would need a 40-man roster spot, and Tonkin's is probably going to Abad.  Also, his spring numbers are in 15 PA, against an average of just a hair under AA-level competition, according to B-Ref (OppQual of 6.9).

Well shoot, those are reasonable points. I hate that!