Plouffe and the Mid Market Payroll

[Kwak]

 

Here's where I think we have to be careful.  TR is an honest (to a fault, sometimes) GM.  However, if he says "We didn't entertain any offers", to me, that's not the same thing as hanging up the phone the second someone called saying "What do you want for Plouffe"?  

The closest I've ever been to being in a GMs office is watching Moneyball.  If it goes like I see it, a GM calls TR, and the conversation goes like this:

GM:  Hey Terry, how about Minor league player A for Plouffe?

TR:  (thinking to himself, "that guy sucks") No, we're not entertaining offers for Plouffe.
GM:  C'mon Terry, you got the phenom in the wings, you gotta get rid of Plouffe.
TR:  We can move Sano to the OF (thinking to himself, "Come on, sweeten the offer!).

GM:  OK, we'll add Minor league player B.

TR:  (those guys both suck).  No, we're not entertaining offers.
GM:  OK, final offer, Players A & B, and a used ball bag.  
TR:  Yeah, thanks for the call, but as I said, we're not entertaining offers for Plouffe at this time. 

+1.  "I don't want to trade [X]."--Don't waste my time with a BS offer.  Take my breathe away in an offer or I'll ignore your calls forever."  If you don't like the name Plouffe, insert Sano, or Buxton, or Berrios into the sentence "I don't want to trade...", if that  is necessary to get those of you to finally understand things.

[howieramone2]

Rocketpig, Plouffe was never on the table, as Sano is 20-25 errors waiting to happen at 3B and is more than athletic enough to play the outfield. He brought in Park because he wasn't going to gamble 2016 on Arcia and/or Vargas. After all Park only cost money right? What is being missed is we didn't need to trade our top prospects. To make what King Theo would consider a major deal would have cost Berrios and/or Polanco.

[USAFChief]

 

Well the key word was "chance" but really it's more of an indictment on Plouffe and his poor on base skills than an endorsement of Nunez.

 

Also I used Nunez instead of Polanco due to Nunez being more of a known commodity, but if Polanco can draw walks and get on base, I'd probably rather have him than Plouffe.

 

I like and use OPS a lot, but it's still just made up of two components and the Twins are very overloaded in the SLG department while woefully underrepresented in the OBP. I think this team needs to consider areas where they can improve the OBP part, surely there needs to be some semblance of balance. Plouffe is an obvious spot where we can look to improve without curbing the development of the younger players.

I might be in the minority, but I want no part of any plan that counts on Nunez as a full time third baseman.

 

Ditto for Polanco, at least for the foreseeable future.

 

Plouffe is a significantly better player than both.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think "minority" and "super minority" are accurate terms here.

 

Plouffe's career wRC+ is 100, Nunez's is 89.  Their Steamer projections for 2016 are roughly the same as those numbers.  Plouffe's career low wRC+ is only 90.  Plouffe is only 12 months older (to the day -- they are June 15th birthday buddies!).  Nunez's career high walk rate is 6.5%, which is the same as Plouffe's career low.  Nunez's career high ISO was .149 last year, Plouffe's career rate is .175 (.190 last year).  Etc.

 

Then of course there's defense (I notice you limited your above comparison to offense, but metrics suggest a potentially large gap there as well, which most observers would probably agree with).

 

If the Twins moved Plouffe now with even the slightest inkling that Nunez would be a full-time 3B in the near future, they would be pilloried by a large majority.

 

I limited the hypothetical to offense because it was formed under the original premise that Sano and his already assumed inferior defense (and his superior bat) would be at 3B, if he failed, Nunez would likely be a defensive upgrade.

 

And looking at RC+, OPS, OPS+, oWAR, BaseRuns, basically every offensive category, Nunez was at least better than Plouffe was last year, which was a wholly ordinary year for Plouffe.

 

And again, the idea isn't that Nunez would replace Plouffe, it's that Sano would replace Plouffe and Nunez/Escobar/Polanco are the contingency plan. I think hedging ones contingency plans is about as conservative and wary as you can get in baseball.

[nicksaviking]

 

I might be in the minority, but I want no part of any plan that counts on Nunez as a full time third baseman.

 

Ditto for Polanco, at least for the foreseeable future.

 

Plouffe is a significantly better player than both.

 

That's a pretty low bar to set, especially considering that Sano is Plan A, Nunez/Polanco are merely Plan B.

 

If Plan A is pretty strong, I'm not scrapping the whole operation just because Plan B isn't optimal. Odds are that Plan B never materializes anyway, this all just seems like the too usual risk-adverseness that clouds this club.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And looking at RC+, OPS, OPS+, oWAR, BaseRuns, basically every offensive category, Nunez was at least better than Plouffe was last year, which was a wholly ordinary year for Plouffe.

And it was Nunez's career year so far.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And again, the idea isn't that Nunez would replace Plouffe, it's that Sano would replace Plouffe and Nunez/Escobar/Polanco are the contingency plan. I think hedging ones contingency plans is about as conservative and wary as you can get in baseball.

That's fair.  I wasn't crazy about the idea of Sano as the everyday 3B, but I really didn't like the idea of Nunez as the contingency plan.  I could easily see the position being a train wreck with just one injury or even less (i.e., the Twins not trusting anyone defensively).  I'm glad we didn't unload Plouffe, especially given the market.

[TheLeviathan]

In what universe is Park not at least as big a gamble at DH as Arcia?

[howieramone2]

 

In what universe is Park not at least as big a gamble at DH as Arcia?

One Twins Way.

[TheLeviathan]

 

That's a pretty low bar to set, especially considering that Sano is Plan A, Nunez/Polanco are merely Plan B.

 

If Plan A is pretty strong, I'm not scrapping the whole operation just because Plan B isn't optimal. Odds are that Plan B never materializes anyway, this all just seems like the too usual risk-adverseness that clouds this club.

 

There is also the factor that making the decision to move Sano to the outfield for fear of Plan B, might affect being able to even keep Arcia on the roster.  Or create an impediment for Kepler or someone else.  

 

Signing Park is what really mucked things up, but Plouffe is a part of that muck as well.

[TheLeviathan]

 

One Twins Way.

 

Park has never played in the major leagues and is taking a huge step up on competition.  He's still a massive gamble in his own right, no matter how you want to spin it.

[howieramone2]

 

Park has never played in the major leagues and is taking a huge step up on competition.  He's still a massive gamble in his own right, no matter how you want to spin it.

I never said he wasn't. Competition is a good thing and he only cost money right? Didn't a wise man once say Terry Ryan is pathologically adverse to taking risks?

[TheLeviathan]

 

I never said he wasn't. Competition is a good thing and he only cost money right? Didn't a wise man once say Terry Ryan is pathologically adverse to taking risks?

 

I'm not opposed to the Park signing, I'm opposed to the idea that our DH situation got less risky.  Or that Park is any less risky than Arcia.  Arcia is probably the least risky with the highest upside of our potential DH options.

 

If anything, Park complicates our decision with him.

[Platoon]

TR wasn't going to gamble the season on Arcia or Vargas at DH, just as he wasn't going to gamble the season with Sano at 3B.

If I had no intention of gambling the season on an Arcia or Vargas at DH, or a Sano at 3B, my insurance move would not be an unproven 30 yr. old from a soft foreign league, which then resulted in not gambling the season with Sano at 3B, but instead in RF. That's kind of like drawing to an inside straight, but discarding two cards.

[Brock Beauchamp]

To be clear, I don't hate the Park signing, I simply don't understand it in the context of the current roster.

 

But as I've said previously, this "problem" probably sorts itself by midseason. Park stumbles, Plouffe gets injured, Plouffe gets traded, etc.

[gocgo]

I still scratch my head about how Bartlett and Kubel came out of ST as better options than the guys in the minors.  Especially Bartlett.  Kubel at least had a decent ST, whereas Bartlett had a terrible ST. If your argument is that the Twins stick with aged veterans over young guys, that is the most glaring example I can recall.

[nicksaviking]

 

And it was Nunez's career year so far.

 

Right, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that he'd be better offensively. I didn't say I thought he would, just that it's not as unlikely as we might suspect.

[nicksaviking]

I like the Park signing, even if it is a huge gamble it's low risk. The money is minimal which means there will be much less resistance to cut him a year, maybe even two early if it comes to that. To me the only risk is as stated above, the possible loss of a guy like Arcia.

 

But this scenario only came about once it became clear that despite what every baseball analyst thought after the Twins won the bid for Park, Plouffe could not be moved.

 

I don't mean to disparage Plouffe, he's been a good Twins, he just doesn't look like a good offensive fit in for this team and is one of the most glaring spots to change without sacrificing potential, which is the attribute I value most at this point. I'll gladly give up depth in exchange for playing time for the young guys.

[old nurse]

 

I think people are over-rating Plouffe quite a bit...let's look at the numbers:

 

2015:

14th out of 21 in WAR for 3B (guys behind him that

15 out of 21 OPS+/wRC+

It's preposterous that we are letting this kind of player dictate what we can/can't do with the future of the

franchise (Sano)

 

Everyone is dead set on getting some insane return on Plouffe, I say, who cares! Get a couple decent prospects or a lottery ticket or two and call it a day! He shouldn't be in our long term plans anyways, might as well get something decent now, let Sano play 3rd instead of messing with Sano all season and eventually trading Plouffe for the exact same return (or worse) or losing him to FA eventually.

The Twins got 5 lottery tickets for Santana and are panned for the trade. The Twins got two lottery tickets for JJ Hardy and are panned for it. If Todd Frazier nets only 3 lottery tickets, the tickets Plouffe would return would be for the daily 3, a minimal prize.

[Major League Ready]

 

To be clear, I don't hate the Park signing, I simply don't understand it in the context of the current roster.

 

But as I've said previously, this "problem" probably sorts itself by midseason. Park stumbles, Plouffe gets injured, Plouffe gets traded, etc.

It’s pretty hard to make sense of this when we don’t know the set of assumptions being used by the FO.
Park is not hard to understand if the Twins did not want to relegate Sano to a DH so early in his career.  This is actually pretty safe assumption given Sano’s athleticism.  He is more valuable if he can play any defensive position and a lot more valuable if he can play and adequate 3B.

 

The big one for me is how they evaluated his defensive floor and ceiling at 3B.  Finding a position for Sano so that we can keep plouffe is ridiculous if they believe he can play the position.  That plan is a good way to sustain mediocrity.  We have a number of great OF prospects which means we likely would not have room for a player that hits as well or better than Plouffe and that is better than Sano defensively, all so that we can keep Plouffe for 2 years.  God help us if they are going through this rigmarole so that we can keep Plouffe.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins got 5 lottery tickets for Santana and are panned for the trade. The Twins got two lottery tickets for JJ Hardy and are panned for it. If Todd Frazier nets only 3 lottery tickets, the tickets Plouffe would return would be for the daily 3, a minimal prize.

However the Twins didn't have immediate replacements for Santana and Hardy, in this case they not only have a replacement but an upgrade in Sano. Besides, in this situation the return for Plouffe is only the auxiliary prize though, isn't the main prize playing time for Arcia, Kepler, Park, Polanco and/or Vargas?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It’s pretty hard to make sense of this when we don’t know the set of assumptions being used by the FO.

Yep, which is why I'm not up in arms about this offseason (excepting the bullpen), just a bit baffled by it.

[Riverbrian]

 

It’s pretty hard to make sense of this when we don’t know the set of assumptions being used by the FO.
Park is not hard to understand if the Twins did not want to relegate Sano to a DH so early in his career.  This is actually pretty safe assumption given Sano’s athleticism.  He is more valuable if he can play any defensive position and a lot more valuable if he can play and adequate 3B.

 

The big one for me is how they evaluated his defensive floor and ceiling at 3B.  Finding a position for Sano so that we can keep plouffe is ridiculous if they believe he can play the position.  That plan is a good way to sustain mediocrity.  We have a number of great OF prospects which means we likely would not have room for a player that hits as well or better than Plouffe and that is better than Sano defensively, all so that we can keep Plouffe for 2 years.  God help us if they are going through this rigmarole so that we can keep Plouffe.

 

My Guess:

 

I think the Twins are really hoping that Park becomes the perfect guy to hit behind Sano and I think they like Plouffe Defensively at 3B. Probably like him a lot more over Sano. 

 

In that context... It kinda makes sense. 

 

Of course I don't know what they think... This is what I think they think. 

 

 

[Kwak]

 

However the Twins didn't have immediate replacements for Santana and Hardy, in this case they not only have a replacement but an upgrade in Sano. Besides, in this situation the return for Plouffe is only the auxiliary prize though, isn't the main prize playing time for Arcia, Kepler, Park, Polanco and/or Vargas?

You summed up all of the frustrations of those wishing Plouffe was gone and/or Park was never signed--poster's fantasy baseball line-up has been destroyed.  Sano is the "desired 3B"--because he's worth more points there than DH.  Ignored is are the struggles Sano showed as a minor league player and his propensity to get injured.  Arcia seems to be another fan favorite as "old hitting stats are cited"--yet his disaster at Rochester last year (and his foundering in the OF) is also ignored.  

 

True, Plouffe is "only average at the ML level"--unfortunately the only alternative comes with double question mark.  Plus after Sano, is emergency substitute Nunez (Wow!) and then...crickets.  People wonder why Plouffe wasn't just dumped to save salary and permit Sano to play 3B?  

 

Arcia?  Another train wreck in the making.  But Arcia has his fans on TD  but I don't think Ryan is one of them.

 

Park?  It sounds as if posters wish he will fail, because he alters their fantasy team--Wow, what true blue fans!

[nicksaviking]

I think Park does quite a bit better than folks expect, I'm excited about him and have never implied regret about him, quite the opposite. I think there is a ton of potential, I want him even if it's only because his swing looks like Jose Bautista.

 

Sano is more valuable at 3B than RF in the real world and fantasy. Plouffe is a good defensive 3B but he's not great, the team isn't losing an elite defender. Plouffe is safe if average overall, there are multiple unsafe options with upside. I don't like safe, this team always does safe, let's try something else.

[The Wise One]

 

You should always entertain just because you can never know what's out there until you listen. You can always hang up if the return is underwhelming.

To listen may be done, Ryan did not say he does not listen to offers. He chooses his words very carefully and lets others make up their own meanining

[The Wise One]

Remember the word entertain means consider

[alarp33]

 

You summed up all of the frustrations of those wishing Plouffe was gone and/or Park was never signed--poster's fantasy baseball line-up has been destroyed.  Sano is the "desired 3B"--because he's worth more points there than DH.  Ignored is are the struggles Sano showed as a minor league player and his propensity to get injured.  Arcia seems to be another fan favorite as "old hitting stats are cited"--yet his disaster at Rochester last year (and his foundering in the OF) is also ignored.  

 

True, Plouffe is "only average at the ML level"--unfortunately the only alternative comes with double question mark.  Plus after Sano, is emergency substitute Nunez (Wow!) and then...crickets.  People wonder why Plouffe wasn't just dumped to save salary and permit Sano to play 3B?  

 

Arcia?  Another train wreck in the making.  But Arcia has his fans on TD  but I don't think Ryan is one of them.

 

Park?  It sounds as if posters wish he will fail, because he alters their fantasy team--Wow, what true blue fans!

 

You conveniently mentioned Sano's "struggles" at 3b in the minors, mentioned an "injury history", and yet Ignored the fact that he's now being thrown to the wolves as an OUTFIELDER.  Something he has never done before.  

 

I've never seen anyone on this site say Arcia is a good OFer, he would certainly have been a viable DH candidate if Park wasn't around.   

[Squirrel]

 

I've said multiple times I thought the Park acquisition was questionable. It didn't make sense given the make-up of the current 40 man.

 

I hope the guy tears the cover off the ball and the Twins' scouts nailed it but man, it doesn't make much sense.

This. Trading Plouffe wasn't the problem here ... it was acquiring Park.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This. Trading Plouffe wasn't the problem here ... it was acquiring Park.

All I can do is hope the Twins scouts were so enamored with the guy that they told Ryan "you need to make room for this guy on the roster".

 

I hope to god winning the bid wasn't an accident.