Plouffe and the Mid Market Payroll

[DaveW]

 

Sadly, this is another example of you using something out of context to attack Ryan.  

 

No, actually it isn't out of context considering Ryan said it during an interview saying he was planning on keeping Plouffe.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/terry-ryan-twins-plan-to-keep-trevor-plouffe.html

[USAFChief]

 

 

 

If they extend a 16M dollar QO to Trevor Plouffe I think my head will explode. 

I think it's pretty difficult to tell in January 2015 whether or not that will be a good idea in the 2017-18 offseason.

 

Sano could flounder, or prove inept as a third baseman, and there are no better options than Plouffe.  Plouffe could have himself two seasons good enough that he'll decline a QO.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

If Trevor Plouffe walks away from a 16M QO....then HIS head should explode due to stupidity.  

 

16 million for one year is roughly double what Trevor Plouffe will make going forward.

[gunnarthor]

 

I mean, how many names have to be dropped about guys run out FAR past their usefulness.  This team gives way too long of a leash to anyone that they consider "their" guys.  That loyalty has benefits, but it has costs too.  It's part of how this team operates, to call it a false narrative is ridiculous.

 

If they extend a 16M dollar QO to Trevor Plouffe I think my head will explode. 

 No talks to extend Plouffe.

 

Let's see, Koskie, AJ, Hunter, Jones, Milton, Silva, Johan, Garza, Span, Revere, Hicks, Hudson, Nathan, Cuddy,  etc and you want to argue that holding onto a LOOGY guy shows the opposite?  Or, are you going to make up claims that some veteran could have been traded and claim a fantastical (and false) return? Or, wait, even better, you want to argue that the Twins should have spent money on a FA to replace someone, even though it probably wasn't realistic in the first place?  Gotcha.

 

 

[alarp33]

 

 No talks to extend Plouffe.

 

Let's see, Koskie, AJ, Hunter, Jones, Milton, Silva, Johan, Garza, Span, Revere, Hicks, Hudson, Nathan, Cuddy,  etc and you want to argue that holding onto a LOOGY guy shows the opposite?  Or, are you going to make up claims that some veteran could have been traded and claim a fantastical (and false) return? Or, wait, even better, you want to argue that the Twins should have spent money on a FA to replace someone, even though it probably wasn't realistic in the first place?  Gotcha.

 

Yeahhh, I think you're missing the point.  Those names aren't all at related to the Twins sticking with "familiar" players.  The Twins got rid of Johan because they felt he was past his usefulness?

 

How about Bartlett, Kubel, Guerrier, Hunter being brought back within last couple seasons because they were "their guys"?

[big dog]

 

Tonkin and Pressly spent the first month of the season in AAA.  Tonkin spent an additional couple weeks down there when Stauffer returned from the DL too.  Further down the list, Achter was in AAA until August, Darnell until September.  Obviously not great options for immediate contributions, but clearly all of these guys offered more upside than Stauffer and his one-year contract (likely as a long reliever or swingman, as evidenced by his shot at starting in spring training).

True.  And Tonkin may get DFA'd this year, like Achter did.  I don't really see how them spending the first month in AAA mattered one bit, given expectations for them and the results we got.  I do think Pressly has a chance, and I hope he succeeds, though I don't recall him looking all that good last spring.

 

I do agree, as I said, that signing Stauffer was a huge mistake compared to other veteran pitchers.

 

 But I know that everything has to fit the prescribed narrative one way or another.  So the Twins are vet-loving morons, it's all over.

 

I like the Hot Stove League, but this Leaking Lukewarm Radiator League that we've been in for a while leaves something to be desired.

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Do not extend Plouffe! Trade him, if you can. Sadly, Ryan will never pull that trigger...

[gunnarthor]

 

Yeahhh, I think you're missing the point.  Those names aren't all at related to the Twins sticking with "familiar" players.  The Twins got rid of Johan because they felt he was past his usefulness?

 

How about Bartlett, Kubel, Guerrier, Hunter being brought back within last couple seasons because they were "their guys"?

So what?  Hunter signing worked out fine.  Kubel was one season removed from a 30 homer season and still relatively young.  That's not a bad gamble.  Guerrier wasn't great but he only threw 28 innings, had a positive WPA, WAR and ERA+ and wasn't blocking anyone.  Is this really the proof that the Twins keep guys b/c they picked up some fringe FA who used to have ties to the org?  Like every other org does?

[DaveW]

 

So what?  Hunter signing worked out fine. 

Did it? 10 million dollars for a 0.5 WAR player? Hitting wise he was one of the worst corner OF in baseball, ditto with fielding wise. How is that "worked out fine"?

 

If they signed Cruz like many of us suggested the Twins would have found themselves in the playoffs.

[jazzagechoir]

Personally I think it was not a bad idea to keep Plouffe. Starting pitching doesn't come cheap and I would much rather have someone who consistently produces offensively than trade him for another Nolasco-level pitcher. 

[jimmer]

Did it? 10 million dollars for a 0.5 WAR player?

 

If they signed Cruz like many of us suggested the Twins would have found themselves in the playoffs.

And if Cruz, as opposed to a former star Twin, had been paid 10M and only produced 0.5 WAR, more people would be willing to admit that it was a horrible signing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

True.  And Tonkin may get DFA'd this year, like Achter did.  I don't really see how them spending the first month in AAA mattered one bit, given expectations for them and the results we got.  I do think Pressly has a chance, and I hope he succeeds, though I don't recall him looking all that good last spring.

 

I do agree, as I said, that signing Stauffer was a huge mistake compared to other veteran pitchers.

 

 But I know that everything has to fit the prescribed narrative one way or another.  So the Twins are vet-loving morons, it's all over.

 

I like the Hot Stove League, but this Leaking Lukewarm Radiator League that we've been in for a while leaves something to be desired.

Sorry, I don't think I've said anything like "the Twins are vet-loving morons."  Just that they don't deserve any real credit for their handling of Stauffer.

 

Again, obviously in one month, it probably wouldn't have mattered if Stauffer replaced Perkins last April, the Twins were pretty bad that month either way.  Point is, there was no real point to playing Stauffer at all.  He was a questionable signing, filling a questionable role, who had a terrible spring in terms of stuff and results (in over 3 times as many innings as either Tonkin or Pressly) and had no future in Minnesota almost no matter how he performed.

 

It doesn't take much to be a better alternative to that.  Just having good AAA stats and a potential future in Minnesota, with team control at minimum salaries, would be enough.  Pressly's MLB career 113 ERA+ at that point would have been gravy.  (Had Pressly or Tonkin made the team over Stauffer, they may not have burned any option year in 2015 either -- obviously a bigger deal for Tonkin right now since he is out of options.)

[Oxtung]

 

True.  And Tonkin may get DFA'd this year, like Achter did.  I don't really see how them spending the first month in AAA mattered one bit, given expectations for them and the results we got.  I do think Pressly has a chance, and I hope he succeeds, though I don't recall him looking all that good last spring.

 

I do agree, as I said, that signing Stauffer was a huge mistake compared to other veteran pitchers.

 

 But I know that everything has to fit the prescribed narrative one way or another.  So the Twins are vet-loving morons, it's all over.

 

I like the Hot Stove League, but this Leaking Lukewarm Radiator League that we've been in for a while leaves something to be desired.

What do their Sept. 2015 stats have to do with decisions made before April?  

 

This is absolutely a case where a mediocre veteran, with significant questions, was picked ahead of younger guys because he had a guaranteed contract.  Of course the results were very predictable.  

 

I'm not sure how this is an argument.  This happens very consistently within the Twins organization.  Now, at times they latch on to young guys too (hello Mr. Hicks), but that doesn't change the fact that if you have a guaranteed contract you will make the squad barring injury.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

if you have a guaranteed contract you will make the squad barring injury.

Actually the threshold is even slightly lower, if you're a veteran on a minor league deal with a MLB salary clause (i.e. Abad), it seems de facto guaranteed.

[Bob Sacamento]

Is Plouffe a better defensive 3B than Sano? Probably, maybe..most likely.  With a rotation that pitches to so much contact, yes it is good to have an average defensive infield all around which likely has an influence in Plouffe over Sano at 3B.  But the Twins have created now is a logjam for their best prospect/hitter.  Sano wasn't going to win any gold gloves at 3B in 2016 and is a likely positional shift in 3-5 years anyway.  Yet outside of 3B, his next best position is 1B which is blanketed by Mauer and his remaining 72M/3YR and the backup to 1B is the newly signed Park and his 12M/4YR.  After 3B and 1B, Sano's best position is DH which is also blanketed by Mauer/Park and an Arcia, etc.  So where does Sano go? Lets move him to the OF where he's played ZERO games in his entire professional career (MLB and MiLB) and where the organization already has  Buxton, Rosario, Arcia, Kepler, plus depth in Santana, Benson. Side note, anyone who's complaining of Arcia's defense in OF, do you really expect the bigger more cumbersome Sano to be as good/better defensively?

 

To me moving Sano to the already crowded outfield leads me to believe that there was NO MARKET for Trevor Plouffe this offseason.  Ryan likely made calls and no team was wanting to give up even a marginal package for a league average 3B at 7M a clip in 2016 or be on the hook for same league average player in 2017 at 10M.  If you look at the free agency market, Plouffe's comp David Freese, who has a very similar line the past three years, can't find a job in which he's basically the only 3B available.

[Oxtung]

 

Actually the threshold is even slightly lower, if you're a veteran on a minor league deal with a MLB salary clause (i.e. Abad), it seems de facto guaranteed.

I don't think your blanket statement is true.  The Twins at times seemingly make some questionable calls about who makes the 25 man roster (hello, Kubel and Bartlett), but there are also several players that have had opt out clauses they used because they didn't make the roster by a certain date.  Rich Harden comes to mind.

[Oxtung]

 

 

 

To me moving Sano to the already crowded outfield leads me to believe that there was NO MARKET for Trevor Plouffe this offseason.  Ryan likely made calls and no team was wanting to give up even a marginal package for a league average 3B at 7M a clip in 2016 or be on the hook for same league average player in 2017 at 10M.  If you look at the free agency market, Plouffe's comp David Freese, who has a very similar line the past three years, can't find a job in which he's basically the only 3B available.

I've come around to this line of thinking as well.  I think the original plan was to sign a bat for the DH (which they did with Park), trade Plouffe and move Sano to 3rd.  With the money freed up by trading Plouffe I think they planned on signing/acquiring a lefty relief pitcher.  Without moving Plouffe I think they've hit an internal Salary cap and have decided not to pursue further options.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't think your blanket statement is true. The Twins at times seemingly make some questionable calls about who makes the 25 man roster (hello, Kubel and Bartlett), but there are also several players that have had opt out clauses they used because they didn't make the roster by a certain date. Rich Harden comes to mind.

Rich Harden was never remotely healthy for us. I stand by my statement.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Let's see, Koskie, AJ, Hunter, Jones, Milton, Silva, Johan, Garza, Span, Revere, Hicks, Hudson, Nathan, Cuddy,  etc and you want to argue that holding onto a LOOGY guy shows the opposite?  Or, are you going to make up claims that some veteran could have been traded and claim a fantastical (and false) return? Or, wait, even better, you want to argue that the Twins should have spent money on a FA to replace someone, even though it probably wasn't realistic in the first place?  Gotcha.

 

What the hell are you even arguing?  My point is that the team often holds on to guys for loyalty well past the point of usefulness and would rather move young players around than upset veterans.

 

Just last year we shifted Arcia because of Hunter.  We played Josh Willingham until he basically needed a scooter in LF.  We moved Sano to the outfield because of Plouffe.  (And the GM is adamantly on the record that Plouffe was a big part of it)  We have marched the Marquis, Stauffers, Duensings, and a host of other guys my PTSD has lead me to forget...out to the mound time after time with nothing to expect but futility because, dammit!, they eat innings!  

 

This is not a prospect blocking issue, this is an issue that the Twins' old school mentality about loyalty (while beneficial other times) is a detriment to them making the best moves for upside in favor of maintaining the status quo.

[Oxtung]

 

Rich Harden was never remotely healthy for us. I stand by my statement.

You can stand by it but that doesn't change the facts.  There are players with MLB clauses the Twins have never placed on the 25 man roster.

 

Kubel wasn't healthy either and they still placed him on the 25 man roster to start the year.

 

I'm just saying you can't make a blanket statement when it comes to minor league signings.  They are slightly less predictable.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You can stand by it but that doesn't change the facts.  There are players with MLB clauses the Twins have never placed on the 25 man roster.

 

Kubel wasn't healthy either and they still placed him on the 25 man roster to start the year.

 

I'm just saying you can't make a blanket statement when it comes to minor league signings.  They are slightly less predictable.

 

obviously, no statement is true when it says "100% of the time a person does this"......are we going to argue over whether it happens EVERY time, or are we going to argue over the pattern? Because 1 is a straw man.....(actually, it is probably some other thing, like nirvana or some other fallacy) and 1 is a discussion worth having.

[old nurse]

 

Ryan Pressly, Michael Tonkin, and AJ Achter all began the 2015 season at AAA after spending all of 2014 there as well.  All had sub 3 ERA's and all had >9 K/9 rates.  Hell, Pressly had already thrown 100 IP of ~4 ERA at the major league level.

 

Again, there are instances when the Twins make room for young guys, Span, Revere, Pierzynski all are examples; but Stauffer isn't one of them.  

Stauffer and Pressly  are about the same pitcher in terms of fastball speed. Pressly does not offer any more upside than back of the pen. In his first 105 innings of major league pitching he had an ERA of 4  and FIP being somewhere near that.   Stauffer the previous season had an ERA of 3.5 and a FIP of 3.02  Somewhere in the flight from the west coast he lost the ability to pitch, but off the numbers from the previous seasons, Stauffer had better numbers. If the thoughtwas  that Stauffer was going to be anything more than 6th inning or mop up pitcher because they saw something they thought they could improve, they guessed wrong.  That or the intercostal injury happened in spring training and he tried to pitch through it. Stauffer did not block a prospect with upside. Tonkin keeps getting chances. It has not worked out.

[cjj td]

Plouffe WILL be traded.  Sano WILL play 3rd (as good or better than Plouffe does within a couple of years).

 

This will happen sometime between tomorrow at the earliest and the trading deadline at the latest,

[Otto von Ballpark]

You can stand by it but that doesn't change the facts. There are players with MLB clauses the Twins have never placed on the 25 man roster.

 

Kubel wasn't healthy either and they still placed him on the 25 man roster to start the year.

 

I'm just saying you can't make a blanket statement when it comes to minor league signings. They are slightly less predictable.

Kubel was healthy enough to play. Harden was not. It's a simple distinction.

 

The past 5 years, I think every veteran MLB player on a minor league invite with MLB salary clause who has been healthy enough to play has made the Twins roster, I believe. I actually didn't say anything about opt outs, but you could possibly lump those in as well (Boyer?). It's not a huge group, but it's large enough to conclude that Abad is probably a shoo-in if healthy. Such minor league deals are more about 40-man roster flexibility than making the MLB veteran prove something (other than health) in spring training.

 

That's the only conclusion I was making there. Some guys on minor league deals are on de facto guaranteed deals. Nothing about other guys on minor league deals, like Joe Benson or whomever.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Stauffer and Pressly are about the same pitcher in terms of fastball speed. Pressly does not offer any more upside than back of the pen. In his first 105 innings of major league pitching he had an ERA of 4 and FIP being somewhere near that. Stauffer the previous season had an ERA of 3.5 and a FIP of 3.02 Somewhere in the flight from the west coast he lost the ability to pitch, but off the numbers from the previous seasons, Stauffer had better numbers. If the thoughtwas that Stauffer was going to be anything more than 6th inning or mop up pitcher because they saw something they thought they could improve, they guessed wrong. That or the intercostal injury happened in spring training and he tried to pitch through it. Stauffer did not block a prospect with upside. Tonkin keeps getting chances. It has not worked out.

Pressly or Tonkin simply matching Stauffer's modest achievements on the mound would have been a win for the Twins because of their low salaries and team control.

 

When they promised him a chance to start in spring training, it became pretty clear to me that the Twins didn't have any grand plan in mind for Stauffer other than wanting another veteran arm around.

[Oxtung]

Stauffer and Pressly are about the same pitcher in terms of fastball speed. Pressly does not offer any more upside than back of the pen. In his first 105 innings of major league pitching he had an ERA of 4 and FIP being somewhere near that. Stauffer the previous season had an ERA of 3.5 and a FIP of 3.02 Somewhere in the flight from the west coast he lost the ability to pitch, but off the numbers from the previous seasons, Stauffer had better numbers. If the thoughtwas that Stauffer was going to be anything more than 6th inning or mop up pitcher because they saw something they thought they could improve, they guessed wrong. That or the intercostal injury happened in spring training and he tried to pitch through it. Stauffer did not block a prospect with upside. Tonkin keeps getting chances. It has not worked out.

Stauffer was throwing 88 mph at the end of spring training and was getting shelled. Here are his game logs with velocity. Presley on the other hand didn't get a chance to show what he could do in spring training. But here are his logs showing he was throwing 94 mph. It doesn't take a genius to figure out something isn't right when a pitcher loses 5 mph on his fastball and is getting shelled. To me it was pretty clear he shouldn't have been handed the roll in that situation.

 

You're argument that Stauffer was a better pitcher when healthy might be true but that wasn't the situation the Twins found themselves in.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=6432&position=P&type=6&gds=&gde=&season=2015

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=7005&position=P&type=11&gds=&gde=&season=2015

[jimmer]

 

Hunter was a good signing though. 20+ bombs, 80+ rbi's, excellent leadership. The dogs also wanted Pinto to start. Last I heard Pinto is DH on a co-ed softball team. If the dogs make enough predictions, sooner or later they will hit on one. Board favorite Meyer sure didn't disappoint did he.

No, he was NOT a good signing.

 

0.5 WAR, bad defense and weeeeeellll below average offense for a RF.  He had a 90 wRC+.  That was good for 22nd out of 23 qualifying RFs.  If you extend that to RF with 450 or more PA we get 27 RF, and he'd rank 26th in wRC+.

[DaveW]

 

Hunter was a good signing though. 20+ bombs, 80+ rbi's, excellent leadership. The dogs also wanted Pinto to start. Last I heard Pinto is DH on a co-ed softball team. If the dogs make enough predictions, sooner or later they will hit on one. Board favorite Meyer sure didn't disappoint did he.

20 "Bombs" and 80 "RBI's" is the bare minimum one should expect from a no field "veteran" corner OF.

I'm not going to get into the whole leadership thing again, but apparently it wasn't enough since the Twins fell short of the playoffs.

 

Nobody was clamoring for Pinto to start at DH...if anything people were asking for Sano much earlier.

 

Pretty much everyone could tell objectively that Cruz was going to be a better player then Hunter.

[DaveW]

 

 

No, he was NOT a good signing.

 

0.5 WAR, bad defense and weeeeeellll below average offense for a RF.  He had a 90 wRC+.  That was good for 22nd out of 23 qualifying RFs.  If you extend that to RF with 450 or more PA we get 27 RF, and he'd rank 26th in wRC+.

Yeah, if he doesn't have the last name of Hunter that season and signing would be viewed as a negative by EVERYONE. But once again, Minnesota love to bring back their former past Minnesota greats, any shortcomings will be dismissed and we will get some nonsense about how since he led dance parties it somehow made the Twins player harder and win games.

Maddening.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Keeping Plouffe at 3B is a little like if the Twins had kept Pierzynski and moved Mauer to RF for a couple years. The difference being Pierzynski, when all said and done, very likely will have ended up with a longer and better career than Plouffe's.

 

Free Sano! I'm not buying the line that he can never be a decent fielder at third, if given enough reps.