Twins Lose Zack Jones in Rule 5

[gunnarthor]

 

IMO, the Twins mistakenly left Zach Jones unprotected, (while protecting Pat Dean) because they did NOT factor into that decision THE PROBABILITY, that other teams WOULD NOT pick Pat Dean in Rule 5 because he is a little-known, barely-ranked non-prospect.
On the other hand Zach Jones was a well-known, highly-ranked prospect with big-time stuff, who was a much higher risk to be lost if unprotected.
Even if Pat Dean becomes Sean Gilmartin 2016, I doubt that he had much chance of being lost in the Rule 5 Draft.
It IS possible that the Twins lack of LH SP depth may have been the real reason that Pat Dean was protected and Zach Jones was not.

In what world was Zach Jones a "highly ranked prospect"?  mlb.com ranked him #23.  I mean, Dean was a head scratcher but at least he's thrown 400+ innings at AA and AAA and might play up in the pen.  

[DaveW]

 

 

Fien was a 1.0 WAR pitcher last year in  63 ip.  That's actually pretty good for a relief pitcher.  Don't like WAR?  Only 18% of his inherited runners scored.  Also very good for a relief pitcher.  His one stat that looks bad was his k-rate, which is the only stat that of Jones' that looks good.  

 

And the "settling for mediocrity" BS you keep posting gets old, really fast.  We get it, you don't like Ryan.  But as many have explained, his moves make sense and what you want would make the team much worse.

WAR is pointless when talking about RP

 

As far as other stats that look bad: his ERA has been pretty mediocre the last 3 years, and his k rate has dipped from 10, to 7.2 to 5.8 in that time as wel, that to me is a clear sign of decline.

 

Also this isn't Jones would take over for Fien,I would rather have any of the 10 or so RP signed thus far then Fien on the major league roster, in addition, I said I would have rather not protected Pat Dean, Nunez or Hicks as well.

[Shane Wahl]

Pat Dean is somehow more valuable than Zach Jones. And don't get me started on Nunez. Totally laughable.

[DaveW]

 

 

In what world was Zach Jones a "highly ranked prospect"?  mlb.com ranked him #23.  I mean, Dean was a head scratcher but at least he's thrown 400+ innings at AA and AAA and might play up in the pen.  

Pat Dean has a career 4.9 k/9 in AAA, why on earth would we want another sub 5.0 guy in the pen?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Also, he was Milwaukee's 2nd pick and there's no way even the awful Brewers are carrying two Rule 5 guys all year.  I like Jones chances to stick better than a 1B, as relievers have been much easier to hide, but I'd think the chances that he's truley gone are no higher than 70%.

Yeah, that's a point I thought of but never touched on... There's a decent chance the Twins get Jones back at some point in 2016.

[Rosterman]

You can argue the need to keep Dean? You can argue the necessity for a third back-up catcher who you will ultimately flip/flop off the 40-man roster anyways (shades of Eric Fryer). You have a couple of arms protected because they were injured and could've been grabbed and stored on a DL by another team. Yoiu have Nunez and Fien, both of whom should've been cut and brought back for less than arbitration, unless the market is so dang huge for them that you made a mistake for a guy who is basically bench fodder and another who no one demanded of you the past couple of summers. You have Logan Darnell.

 

Of course, Jones still has to make the 25-man roster. He ahs to pitch halfway decently in spring training. Otherwise he comes back to the Twins. Maybe we can hope for that.

 

But two years in a row we lose guys that you can pretty much write in as being grabbed, because we don't have room for them in the inn.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Also this isn't Jones would take over for Fien,I would rather have any of the 10 or so RP signed thus far then Fien on the major league roster, in addition, I said I would have rather not protected Pat Dean, Nunez or Hicks as well.

I'll agree that I don't understand the desire to protect Dean.

[DaveW]

 

 There's a decent chance the Twins get Jones back at some point in 2016.

Yes, but why risk it to begin with?

[DaveW]

 

 

I'll agree that I don't understand the desire to protect Dean.

TR and co can talk about "we value strikeouts now" until they are blue in the face, but when you are keeping around 27 year old, sub 5.0 k pitch to contact guys (sub 2.0 BB )guys who will never be anything more than AAA filler it's hard to take that as any more then just empty talk.

 

[d-mac]

 

I disagreed with exposing Jones and keeping Dean, but if the Twins are bad at this, the Yankees and Rays must be twice as terrible as they lost two players each.

 

I don't really follow teams outside the AL Central in the offseason so I have no idea, but I'd assume they very well may have a legit reason for leaving them unprotected. Maybe free agent acquisitions or trades? There was ZERO chance Dean, Landa, Randy Rosario, and a very slim chance Melotakis (didn't he just have TJ surgery?) would have been taken. Jones seemed to be an obvious add to me. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Yes, but why risk it to begin with?

As people have explained, you don't stack your 40 man roster with the #15 relief pitcher over your #3 catcher.  You don't like that explanation but it doesn't change how teams operate.  

[sane09]

 

Catchers are different than pitchers. Pretty hard to compare them no matter which way you go on it.

.

Yes, but a catcher who has reached MLB vs a pitcher nearly the same age, who just reached (and failed) at AA?

Easy to compare a AA failure to a MLB rookie at the same age.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No. No reason makes sense. Once again this organization proves they have no idea how to manage a 40 man roster. There were several players that should never have been protected. 

I don't agree with all the moves the Twins made to the 40 man but it's a bit much to suggest they have no idea how to manage a 40 man roster.

 

My viewpoint is that the Twins are focusing on 2016, as they should. Guys like Dean - who I wouldn't have kept were it my decision - are likely viewed as three month placeholders, insurance policies in case something goes terribly wrong in April or May of next season. After that point, the org shouldn't hesitate to replace them with the real prospects in the system who might be able to help: Burdi, Berrios, etc.

 

Again, it's likely we reach the same point in June of 2016 no matter who is kept in December of 2015.

 

Or hell, maybe the Twins sign a reliever next week and Dean is off the 40 man.

[zenser]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers do stash him for a year.  I believe they did that in 2014 with a guy from Taiwan that they took in the rule 5 draft.  It is different that they have to stash two guys this year though.

[DaveW]

 

 

 

 Guys like Dean - who I wouldn't have kept were it my decision - are likely viewed as three month placeholders, insurance policies in case something goes terribly wrong in April or May of next season

Guys like Dean (and even better) are available at any time off the waiver wire if things go terribly wrong.

 

Dean is seriously like 9th or 10th on the SP depth chart at this point, if things go that horribly wrong the Twins are better off bringing in a Chris Young type off the waiver wire.

 

Listen, Jones may never do anything in the bigs, but his upside is at least that of a "closer" if he can figure it out, you can't teach arm speed and you can't teach strike outs.

 

Dean will likely never do anything in the bigs as well, but his upside is "spot starter"

[DaveW]

 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers do stash him for a year.  I believe they did that in 2014 with a guy from Taiwan that they took in the rule 5 draft.  It is different that they have to stash two guys this year though.

RP are really easy to stash, just have him be your mop up guy all year, if you are already losing by 5 runs, it won't matter if he serves up another 3-4. Brewers aren't competing anyways, the 1B as others have said might be hard to stash, then again they did just trade Adam Lind, so they have the roster spot. Plus they are in a full rebuild anyways.

[Mike Sixel]

Three pages on losing a guy that will probably never have 2 WAR total in his life......not that I am saying don't talk about it. But that seems like an awful lot of spilled electrons over nothing.

[Dman]

Congrats to Jones as he gets a chance to play in the majors this coming year.  He is lucky the Twins decided not to protect him.  

 

I hope Dean proves his worth as he seems like a long shot to help this team in the future.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Fien is the only guy you can make an argument to replace with Jones.

Wasn't on Dave's list, but Pat Dean is the obvious one to me.

[gunnarthor]

 

Three pages on losing a guy that will probably never have 2 WAR total in his life......not that I am saying don't talk about it. But that seems like an awful lot of spilled electrons over nothing.

How long did the Joe Benson thread go?  I think we can make it!

[DaveW]

 

Three pages on losing a guy that will probably never have 2 WAR total in his life......not that I am saying don't talk about it. But that seems like an awful lot of spilled electrons over nothing.

If you don't like the thread, or find it "pointless" I would suggest just ignoring it, these sorts of posts just derail a conversation others are having about Jones, and the 40 man roster in general.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Wasn't on Dave's list, but Pat Dean is the obvious one to me.

Yeah, mentioned Dean later in the thread, forgot about him initially.

 

I would have kept Jones before Dean and wouldn't have thought too hard about it... But that's not a positive for Jones as much as it's a negative for Dean.

 

Ultimately, I don't think it matters one bit.

[DaveW]

 

Yeah, mentioned Dean later in the thread, forgot about him initially.

I did too, I was actually a bit shocked to find out he was still on the 40 man!

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you don't like the thread, or find it "pointless" I would suggest just ignoring it, these sorts of posts just derail a conversation others are having about Jones, and the 40 man roster in general.

 

i was pretty clear, keep talking about it if you want.......I just don't think losing him is going to matter.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Yes, but a catcher who has reached MLB vs a pitcher nearly the same age, who just reached (and failed) at AA?

Easy to compare a AA failure to a MLB rookie at the same age.

 

It's like trying to compare Babe Ruth to Barry Bonds. Two totally different things.

 

You write Jones off because he struggled at AA in a short stint. You say fail but failure only happens if no lessons are learned. Buxton struggled at AA at first but learned from his mistakes and mastered the level. I wouldn’t call the struggles failure, I’d call them learning. Zach Jones is young and has a good track record. He very well could be a very nice relief pitcher.

 

Dave, on the other hand, dismisses John Hicks, comparing a pitcher to a catcher. A catcher is way more valuable and Hicks is only 25 with just a cup of coffee at the major league level. The Twins see something in him they think can be useful down the line. So they’re not crazy to prioritize him if they see some potential.

 

I’m just saying we can’t compare the two so easily based on stats and numbers. They play wildly different positions, are at different places in their careers and their potential is unrealized.

[sane09]

 

Three pages on losing a guy that will probably never have 2 WAR total in his life......not that I am saying don't talk about it. But that seems like an awful lot of spilled electrons over nothing.

Amazing that THIS is interesting to me (but NOT to you), while the mere mention of WAR makes me want to go to the couch and take a nap.

[PseudoSABR]

Given that Jones was Milwaukee's second Rule 5 pick, I expect Jones to be returned to the Twins at some point next season.  The hand-wringing over this is probably much ado about nothing.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Also, he was Milwaukee's 2nd pick and there's no way even the awful Brewers are carrying two Rule 5 guys all year.

5 teams made two Rule 5 selections this year, it wouldn't surprise me if one of those teams intended to carry two.  The Brewers other pick is a position player with at least some surface versatility, not sure why they couldn't manage to carry him and a pitcher if they wanted.

[Han Joelo]

Let me try some quick mental math:

 

21 teams (+Milwaukee in the 1st round) didn't take Zach Jones when they could have.

 

21*40+36=896

 

We are lamenting the loss of the 896th (at best) most highly regarded (by all of the actual MLB front offices) 40-man roster player.

 

The loss of Zach Jones (if he sticks) goes in the same category as losing Billy Bullock and Eduardo Morlan.  Baseball Blog Posters Dig Hard-Throwing Relievers and Hate Back-up Catchers.

 

Actual front offices trade real assets for guys like Drew Butera and Chris Hermann.

 

I think the Twins brilliant 40 man roster management just yielded an easy $25,000-50,000.  That should be enough to hire three or four more beer guys at Target field.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Guys like Dean (and even better) are available at any time off the waiver wire if things go terribly wrong.

 

Dean is seriously like 9th or 10th on the SP depth chart at this point, if things go that horribly wrong the Twins are better off bringing in a Chris Young type off the waiver wire.

 

Listen, Jones may never do anything in the bigs, but his upside is at least that of a "closer" if he can figure it out, you can't teach arm speed and you can't teach strike outs.

 

Dean will likely never do anything in the bigs as well, but his upside is "spot starter"

 

I would assume that the Twins have thoughts of turning Pat Dean into a relief pitcher, ala Taylor Rogers. His K rate is low but that can take a big jump when moved to relief (see another converted lefty starter named Perkins, his jumped like crazy). He's a lefty, which of course makes him more rare/valuable. The Twins likely see something in him that might translate well to the pen. His upside is not spot starter, it's likely "left handed set-up guy." That's not insignificant. 

You can like Jones a lot and I agree that his K rate is great. It'll be interesting to see if Milwaukee can keep him, he's super raw. But don't minimize the value of converting successful AAAA starters to relief, it can make for some very valuable players. The Twins have spent years looking at both guys, it's kind of naïve to think you can sit at a computer and know better unless the thing is way more obvious than this.