Twins Lose Zack Jones in Rule 5

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

First off, let me reiterate that the Twins did NOT DFA Jones. They were very interested in having him remain a Twin, but didn't feel he warranted a spot on the 40-man roster (like 5-7 of our other top-40 prospects). 

 

If, as TNLooky2015 points out, his velo readings were more often 94 than 97-98 last year, how much upside does he actually have?

 

Also, after 4 years with the club, do you really think that there is much 'fixing' that the Twins can do?

(Hopefully this doesn't start a rant about how the Twins can't develop pitchers)

Sorry, that was my poor choice of words when I said they "gave up" on him.  Obviously the Twins didn't DFA Jones, but they had some level of comfort with not giving him any more opportunities in the organization (either misjudging his chances at selection, and/or preferring an org depth guy like Dean).

 

I'd also quibble with lumping him in with 5-7 other guys. Sickels had Jones (#19) and Harrison (#16) as the two highest ranked Rule 5 eligibles on his Twins prospect list:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/11/5/9677606/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2016

 

And given the needs of our MLB team, I'm not sure why you wouldn't at least guarantee one more spring for Jones, especially since we apparently were not planning on being aggressive with MLB bullpen acquisitions. The cost was potentially losing Pat Dean. Would anyone here be concerned if we lost Pat Dean in the Rule 5?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think Dean is being undervalued here. I get that he isn't a sexy prospect but he's lefthanded and had a strong season at AAA. Deep teams have effective AAA starters they can call up when things go haywire. He has value in this role even if he never becomes a regular for the Twins. And yes I get that have many starters now but that could be very different as early as 2017

Dean has value as org depth, sure -- but teams don't keep guys in Rule 5 for org depth! A claiming team would have had to give Dean a 25 man roster spot for a full season.

 

If the Twins hadn't protected Dean, and he went unclaimed, they still would have retained him as org depth for at least one more season (Dean would have been eligible for minor league free agency after the 2016 season, at which point I'd actually be more receptive to protecting him on the 40-man to keep him from signing somewhere else.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

For the record, I'm more upset with protecting Dean than losing Jones. Jones's selection is just a reminder about Dean's questionable protection, as well as a further possible miscalculation if we really did like him but misjudged his odds of selection.

 

I would have liked to see Dean's 40-man spot go to (or kept open for) a higher-upside potential bullpen option this winter.  It could have been a quality MLB free agent (Lowe, Sipp, etc.), a waiver claim (Danny Hultzen?), a Rule 5 pick, or just even just treating Jones like that waiver claim or Rule 5 pick -- you could always DFA him in the spring if you wanted, if he didn't show the progress you wanted to see by then.  Or heck, release him outright this winter if a better option came along.

 

Dean was unlikely to be claimed or missed, and is now a lock to stay on the 40-man until March 15th, at least, and I suspect beyond that too.  So he's another roadblock at the present time, without providing much present or future benefit to the Twins.  That bugs me.

[Thrylos]

 

 

You think at some point Ryan would try, just once to keep the upside guy (Jones) over the mediocre guy (Dean). And honestly, I don't mind Dean being in the system, I just don't understand why you wouldn't remove him for the 40 (leave him unprotected) and just bring him back after the draft?

 

OK.  Pick the best 2 of these 4.  All on the 40-man roster, all pretty close as far as MLB-readiness goes.  3 LHSPs and 1 RHSP:

 

Career AAA numbers:

 

Pat Dean: 15-13, 2.67 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 4.9 K/9, 1.7 BB/9
Logan Darnell: 16-11, 3.50 ERA, 1.378 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Taylor Rogers: 11-12, 3.98 ERA, 1.345 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
Tyler Duffy: 7-6, 2.75 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9

 

Z. Jones' career AA (highest  level numbers)

 

3-2, 6.00 ERA, 1.556 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 6 BB/9

 

comparable to Jones?  This guy:

 

Career AA numbers (4 seasons) :

 

5-6, 3.28 ERA, 1.421 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9

 

I'd probably argue that this guy might actually be a tad better, so let's look at the whole career minor league numbers:

 

That guy career minor league numbers:

3.62 ERA, 1.371 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9

 

Z Jones career minor league numbers:

2.83 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 12.8 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9

 

Jones is better, but he was bombarded in AA, while the other guy's numbers include 5 AAA (2 in PCL) and 4 AA seasons.

All in all, I'd say pretty comparable.  Jones might just be better, but still has to prove it.  Guess the mystery guy?   Hint: He played with the Twins for one season.  That's pretty much who Jones is if he does not change his delivery and cut down walks.  But if he does, will he still throw as hard as he does?  Probably not. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

OK.  Pick the best 2 of these 4.  All on the 40-man roster, all pretty close as far as MLB-readiness goes.  3 LHSPs and 1 RHSP:

 

Career AAA numbers:

 

Pat Dean: 15-13, 2.67 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 4.9 K/9, 1.7 BB/9
Logan Darnell: 16-11, 3.50 ERA, 1.378 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Taylor Rogers: 11-12, 3.98 ERA, 1.345 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
Tyler Duffy: 7-6, 2.75 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9

Not sure what the point of that is.  Dean is the worst of that group, and quite likely did not require Rule 5 protection.

 

Also, I am sure there are plenty of busts that had numbers similar to Jones, and Jones will probably join that group.  Still not sure what that has to do with Jones vs. Dean for a 40-man spot this winter.

[sane09]

 

29 teams passed on him once.

WRONG!  Only 11 teams participated, mainly because the other teams already had full rosters and therefore were not eligible to participate.
Those 11 teams DID NOT PASS!
They selected someone else, who perhaps met their needs better.
Please don't tell me again that 30 teams passed on Zach Jones!

[gunnarthor]

 

OK.  P

All in all, I'd say pretty comparable.  Jones might just be better, but still has to prove it.  Guess the mystery guy?   Hint: He played with the Twins for one season.  That's pretty much who Jones is if he does not change his delivery and cut down walks.  But if he does, will he still throw as hard as he does?  Probably not. 

Gotta be Hoey

[Thrylos]

 

Gotta be Hoey

 

Exactly

[Thrylos]

 

 

Not sure what the point of that is.  Dean is the worst of that group, and quite likely did not require Rule 5 protection.

 

Also, I am sure there are plenty of busts that had numbers similar to Jones, and Jones will probably join that group.  Still not sure what that has to do with Jones vs. Dean for a 40-man spot this winter.

 

Jones vs Dean is apples vs pineapples.    Dean is a LHstarter and Jones and RH reliever.  Jones competed with the likes of Tonkin, Graham, Pressly, Chargois, and slightly Fien for a 40-man roster spot.

 

Jones competed with Dean as much as he competed with Milone or with D. Santana.  This team has a ton of RHRP all of whom are better than Jones.  And a bunch of RHSP who can become relievers and be better than Jones.

Numbers.

 

And the point is that Dean has a higher ceiling than Jones.  Jones has a fatal flaw with him mechanics plus his FB tends to flatten.  Lots like Jim Hoey.  Anyone crying that he is not a Twins any longer?

[sane09]

Jones' WHIP in AA was 0.97, 38K, 10BB ERA2.19

So his delivery "flaw" and his "flat" pitches disappear when he leaves Chattanooga and crosses the Florida border?

That wasn't Hoey, but it may be Hooey!

[gunnarthor]

 

Jones' WHIP in AA was 0.97, 38K, 10BB ERA2.19
So his delivery "flaw" and his "flat" pitches disappear when he leaves Chattanooga and crosses the Florida border?

Those are Jones' numbers in A+, not AA.  The concern is that the more advanced hitters aren't having trouble with his fastball, have better control of the zone and won't swing at stuff they shouldn't. 

[sane09]

Those are Jones' numbers in A+, not AA.  The concern is that the more advanced hitters aren't having trouble with his fastball, have better control of the zone and won't swing at stuff they shouldn't.

My bad! Of course Chattanooga is AA and Fort Myers is A+.

My self-diagnosis is premature Alzheimers.

[stringer bell]

Jones was my pick to make his debut with the Twins this year (ahead of Reed, Burdi, et al), but that didn't pan out. I suspect there was something physically wrong, so maybe he can bounce back and be a viable candidate to stick with the Brewers. I don't think he'll be missed by the Twins.

 

I really doubt that Pat Dean will have much impact with the Twins, but somebody in the organization sees something they really like.

[sane09]

The concern is that the more advanced hitters aren't having trouble with his fastball, have better control of the zone and won't swing at stuff they shouldn't.

THAT is the explanation which makes perfect sense to me and ends my argument.

I wish someone had explained that issue to me 10 pages ago, but thank you for saving me from the next 10 pages.

[sane09]

 

The concern is that the more advanced hitters aren't having trouble with his fastball, have better control of the zone and won't swing at stuff they shouldn't.

If that was actually Jones' main problem at AA, it figures to be a HUGE problem for him at Brewers' MLB Spring Training and Regular Season. We may get him back soon as many have already predicted here.

[Major League Ready]

I just don’t understand how anyone can have a real strong opinion one way or another.  I am guessing the Twins have a formal process where all of the talent evaluators are brought to together.  Collectively this group who have observed all of the candidates for the 40 man for thousands of hours collectively come to a decision on who to include or not.  I can appreciate one of the basic premises of this site is to debate who to construct the team but to get bent out of shape and to assume any of us has a better idea of which players to put on the 40 man is absolutely ridiculous for anyone who does not have the credentials to be a scout and has seen the players in question numerous times.

[sane09]

to assume any of us has a better idea of which players to put on the 40 man is absolutely ridiculous for anyone who does not have the credentials to be a scout and has seen the players in question numerous times.

An issue, in which Twins scouts may not be the authorities, is guessing which players are most likely to picked by the eleven teams eligible to participate in Rule 5 Draft.

That is a factor in "which players to put on the 40 man" and there may not be ay authorities on that subject.

[ashbury]

I can appreciate one of the basic premises of this site is to debate who to construct the team but to get bent out of shape and to assume any of us has a better idea of which players to put on the 40 man is absolutely ridiculous for anyone who does not have the credentials to be a scout and has seen the players in question numerous times.

Within one sentence you state that you do understand the Internet, and then that you do not understand the Internet.

[Linus]

An issue, in which Twins scouts may not be the authorities, is guessing which players are most likely to picked by the eleven teams eligible to participate in Rule 5 Draft.

That is a factor in "which players to put on the 40 man" and there may not be ay authorities on that subject.

Part of the scouting process is scouting other teams players. So yes they should be able project who is likely to do what and I'm sure they do.

[sane09]

Part of the scouting process is scouting other teams players. So yes they should be able project who is likely to do what and I'm sure they do.

"should be able to project" does not guarantee they are successful at projecting and that is why Rule 5 results get second-guessed on TwinsDaily.

[Linus]

"should be able to project" does not guarantee they are successful at projecting and that is why Rule 5 results get second-guessed on TwinsDaily.

Well of course, none of this is an exact science for any team. Doesn't mean they aren't doing it.

[gunnarthor]

Remember that the sources we fans have are imperfect too.  I'm paraphrasing but BA thought that Astros RP Guadin was a lock to be picked, probably at #1.  A LHP who touched 1000.  Someone was going to take a flier on him.  But he wasn't drafted.

[sane09]

Remember that the sources we fans have are imperfect too.  I'm paraphrasing but BA thought that Astros RP Guadin was a lock to be picked, probably at #1.  A LHP who touched 1000.  Someone was going to take a flier on him.  But he wasn't drafted.

A LHP who touched 1000 mph SHOULD BE #1.

Just kidding. I realize that was a typo.

[Otto von Ballpark]

A LHP who touched 1000 mph SHOULD BE #1.

Just kidding. I realize that was a typo.

He didn't say MPH. He could have touched 1000 of something else that put his baseball future in doubt.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

A LHP who touched 1000 mph SHOULD BE #1.
Just kidding. I realize that was a typo.

 

I'm guessing you might need a special catchers mitt for that purpose, not to mention reflexes of the flash.

[Major League Ready]

 

Within one sentence you state that you do understand the Internet, and then that you do not understand the Internet.

 

 

Within one sentence you state that you do understand the Internet, and then that you do not understand the Internet.

Point taken. 

[sane09]

Why risk it? Why risk it over a sub replacement level player like Hicks?

 

Again

Mediocrity > Upside on one Twins way.

 

This same line of thinking was what lead to choosing FatBeer over David Ortiz fwiw.

You convinced me.

 

DON'T RELAX!

 

Get frustrated and angry!

 

Kick your dog!

 

Yell at your kids!

 

Yell at your wife!

 

Punch a brick wall!

 

Head-butt the same brick wall.

 

Belly-flop off the high diving board!

 

Run across a freeway!

 

Curse your boss!

 

Quit your job!

 

Live in the street!

 

Good, that takes care of YOU!

 

I'm gonna relax............

[twinssouth]

Had Jones not been injured ( I think he only pitched about 9 or 10 innings in 2014) and had a full year of development, my guess is the Twins would have protected him.  That's the problem with the Rule 5.  They should make some kind of a rule that if a player looses significant playing time due to injury, the team gets another year or something like that.  As it is, the Twins really only had 2 years to fully evaluate him.

 

Corey Williams was in the same boat with injuries but fortunately he made it thru and he's a lefty with good velo and great slider. 

[old nurse]

 

WRONG!  Only 11 teams participated, mainly because the other teams already had full rosters and therefore were not eligible to participate.
Those 11 teams DID NOT PASS!
They selected someone else, who perhaps met their needs better.
Please don't tell me again that 30 teams passed on Zach Jones!

They all knew who was on the list. They thought their guys were better otherwise they would not have protected one of them. They passed.

[sane09]

They all knew who was on the list. They thought their guys were better otherwise they would not have protected one of them. They passed.

They knew who was on the list, but they did NOT know if THE GUY they wanted would be available when their turn came up.

Rather than deal with THAT risk, 19 teams decided to stand pat with 40 players from their own organization or leave room for Free Agents later.