Twins Lose Zack Jones in Rule 5

[Seth Stohs]

Milwaukee selected the hard-throwing right-hander in the 2nd round of the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft this morning. It was no surprise to anyone, including the Twins. 

 

Jones was a Southern League All Star in the first half of 2015, but he really struggled in the 2nd half and ended the year in Ft. Myers. 

 

The Brewers had just 35 on their 40 man roster, so they made two picks. He could stick with them as the Brewers have needs.

 

Minor League portion starting now.

[DaveW]

Honest question, if it wasn't a surprise to the Twins, why did they leave him unprotected?

 

Frankly I would have rather had Jones in the org still then Fien locked into a bullpen spot.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Losing Jones stings a bit but the org must feel he's too far from the majors to protect on the 40 man. It's the only reason that makes sense. They have to believe they'd go through this same situation next offseason as well.

[Mike Sixel]

Meh. He might turn out to be something, but they are stacked with RP. They just need some of them to actually work out.

[DaveW]

 

Losing Jones stings a bit but the org must feel he's too far from the majors to protect on the 40 man. It's the only reason that makes sense. They have to believe they'd go through this same situation next offseason as well.

Guys I would rather have Jones on the 40 man roster than:

John Hicks: Yet another no hit catcher who has no real future in the bigs.

Fien: replacement level RP who can't strike anyone out. (Not cheap anymore)

Nunez: Why is he on the 40 man anymore? Santana can be the new super Util

 

The Twins 2016 tagline might as well be "Mediocrity > Upside"

[ScooterDance]

 

Meh. He might turn out to be something, but they are stacked with RP. They just need some of them to actually work out.

 

My concern is, he'll be the one that "actually work[ed] out". I know I'm catering to your alter-ego, MWM, with my pessimism, so I apologize in advance to everyone else. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Guys I would rather have Jones on the 40 man roster than:

John Hicks: Yet another no hit catcher who has no real future in the bigs.

Fien: replacement level RP who can't strike anyone out. (Not cheap anymore)

Nunez: Why is he on the 40 man anymore? Santana can be the new super Util

 

The Twins 2016 tagline might as well be "Mediocrity > Upside"

 

I don't disagree with any of this, I just don't think it matters all that much to the ultimate outcomes for this team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Guys I would rather have Jones on the 40 man roster than:

John Hicks: Yet another no hit catcher who has no real future in the bigs.

Fien: replacement level RP who can't strike anyone out. (Not cheap anymore)

Nunez: Why is he on the 40 man anymore? Santana can be the new super Util

 

The Twins 2016 tagline might as well be "Mediocrity > Upside"

Fien is the only guy you can make an argument to replace with Jones.

 

I don't entirely disagree that Jones is a better option than Fien - I'm not a fan of the Twins retaining Fien, really - but the Twins need a third catcher and utility guys.

 

One of my problems with people who complain about the 40 man roster is the "replace this third-string catcher with a MiLB relief pitcher" comments. That's not how a 40 man roster works. Every team needs insurance policies and a 40 man roster can't contain 20 relievers. That would be catastrophic over the course of a season and those guys you so badly wanted to keep would be exposed to waivers as the team realized "oh ****, maybe we do need that third catcher" and are forced to make moves on the fly. It only delays the process and we ultimately end up at the same point, just a few months later.

[DaveW]

 

Fien is the only guy you can make an argument to replace with Jones.

 

I don't entirely disagree that Jones is a better option than Fien - I'm not a fan of the Twins retaining Fien, really - but the Twins need a third catcher and utility guys.

 

One of my problems with people who complain about the 40 man roster is the "replace this third-string catcher with a MiLB relief pitcher" comments. That's not how a 40 man roster works. Every team needs insurance policies and a 40 man roster can't contain 20 relievers. That would be catastrophic over the course of a season and those guys you so badly wanted to keep would be exposed to waivers during the course of the season as the team realized "oh ****, maybe we do need that third catcher" and are forced to make moves on the fly. It only delays the process and we ultimately end up at the same point, just a few months later.

 

You absolutely do NOT need a 3rd catcher as of today on the 40 man roster, at any point you can go sign another Fryer, Hermann or John Hicks off the scrap heap, play them in AAA and if they are ever needed you can assign them to the 40 man at that point.

 

John Hicks is a bad baseball player, he is below replacement level he does nothing well. Having him on your 40 man in December is pointless.

 

Zack Jones strikes out 12-13 guys per 9 innings, he has his warts no doubt, but those type of guys don't grow on trees, no hit, no field catchers? We can find them anywhere.

As far as Nunez goes, if you are going to keep him around on the 25 man roster, then you are essentially going to lose at least one of Santana, Vargas, or Arcia. Once again, poor roster management.

[Winston Smith]

Guys I would rather have Jones on the 40 man roster than:

John Hicks: Yet another no hit catcher who has no real future in the bigs.

Fien: replacement level RP who can't strike anyone out. (Not cheap anymore)

Nunez: Why is he on the 40 man anymore? Santana can be the new super Util

 

The Twins 2016 tagline might as well be "Mediocrity > Upside"

Nunez did his job last year that's why you keep him, Santana did not!

 

Nunez: .282/.327/.431/.758/ ops+ 104

Santana: .215/.241/.291/.532/ ops+ 44

 

At this point why would you dump the guy that did his job and replace him with a guy that totally failed?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You absolutely do NOT need a 3rd catcher as of today on the 40 man roster, at any point you can go sign another Fryer, Hermann or John Hicks off the scrap heap, play them in AAA and if they are ever needed you can assign them to the 40 man at that point.

 

John Hicks is a bad baseball player, he is below replacement level he does nothing well. Having him on your 40 man in December is pointless.

 

Zack Jones strikes out 12-13 guys per 9 innings, he has his warts no doubt, but those type of guys don't grow on trees, no hit, no field catchers? We can find them anywhere.

You're only kicking the can down the road, Dave. At some point in the 2016 season, the Twins will need a third catcher. Maybe (likely) someone gets injured. Or maybe they're just banged up over a doubleheader weekend. It will happen.

 

Yeah, you can go pick that guy up... Maybe. It's always easy to say those things in the abstract but sometimes, they're hard to pull off in the moment, especially if 29 other teams take the same approach to their third catcher situation.

 

And whomever you pick up will likely be worse than Hicks. He has marginal upside, posting a .754 OPS between AA/AAA in 2014 as a 24 year old.

 

This is the sort of situation where I just don't care much about the 40 man. The Twins have scouted these guys and have more information than either you or me. Maybe they're wrong. Maybe they're not.

 

Remember, remember, the release of Joe Benson. Half this board lost its ****ing mind when Benson was waived. Maybe, just maybe, the Twins aren't entirely incompetent and see a lot more than a stat line in these players.

[DaveW]

 

Nunez did his job last year that's why you keep him, Santana did not!

Nunez: .282/.327/.431/.758/ ops+ 104
Santana: .215/.241/.291/.532/ ops+ 44

At this point why would you dump the guy that did his job and replace him with a guy that totally failed?

Santana is younger, Santana is cheaper, Santana is more versatile, Santana has more upside.

 

Nunez likely won't be able to repeat that batting line anyways.

 

Don't get me wrong, Santana has been a frustrating player as of late, but the talent exists, he is still only 24, and has had some success in AAA and in the majors (2014-luck driven or not) with the bat.

 

I also think he can be better than Nunez at SS, 2B and CF which is what I look for out of a SU guy.

[sane09]

 

Honest question, if it wasn't a surprise to the Twins, why did they leave him unprotected?

 

IMO, the Twins mistakenly left Zach Jones unprotected, (while protecting Pat Dean) because they did NOT factor into that decision THE PROBABILITY, that other teams WOULD NOT pick Pat Dean in Rule 5 because he is a little-known, barely-ranked non-prospect.
On the other hand Zach Jones was a well-known, highly-ranked prospect with big-time stuff, who was a much higher risk to be lost if unprotected.
Even if Pat Dean becomes Sean Gilmartin 2016, I doubt that he had much chance of being lost in the Rule 5 Draft.
It IS possible that the Twins lack of LH SP depth may have been the real reason that Pat Dean was protected and Zach Jones was not.

[DaveW]

 

 

 

Remember, remember, the release of Joe Benson. Half this board lost its ****ing mind when Benson was waived. Maybe, just maybe, the Twins aren't entirely incompetent and see a lot more than a stat line in these players.

I can play this game as well Remember, Remember the release of David Ortiz.

 

Now back onto something relevant, I saw John Hicks play, I watch a lot of Mariners games and follow that org pretty closely, he isn't good. He is below replacement level, you absolutely can get below replacement level players at anytime off the waiver wire if you need a third catcher at some point. Or, I dunno, maybe wait until closer to the season starting to actually clog up a 40 man roster spot with a third catcher, at some point at least one of Nunez, Vargas, Arcia, Santana will have to be released anyways due to roster crunch, why not wait until then to pick up a scrap heap 3rd catcher?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Now back onto something relevant, I saw John Hicks play, I watch a lot of Mariners games and follow that org pretty closely, he isn't good.

Come on, Dave. Hicks has all of 34 MLB PAs. He has started only ten games in MLB.

 

I'm not saying the guy is good but there's no way you have much more information than a stat line or public scouting reports on the guy.

 

I will never understand the teeth-gnashing that surrounds the 38-40 slots on a 40 man roster.

 

Maybe the Twins are wrong and will look foolish 2-3 years down the road. Maybe they won't. Time will tell.

[sane09]

 

 

"

 

 

John Hicks is a bad baseball player, he is below replacement level he does nothing well. Having him on your 40 man in December is pointless.

 

John Hicks was the #13-ranked-prospect for Seattle in the 2015 BA Prospect Handbook. Zach Jones was the #25-ranked-prospect for the Twins in the 2015 BA Prospect Handbook. So, your statement is baseless. I agree that Jones should have been protected instead of Hicks, but only because he was more likely to be lost NOT because he "is a bad baseball player" which is WRONG!

 

 

 

.

[DaveW]

 

 

Maybe the Twins are wrong and will look foolish 2-3 years down the road.

Why risk it? Why risk it over a sub replacement level player like Hicks?

 

Again

Mediocrity > Upside on one Twins way.

 

This same line of thinking was what lead to choosing FatBeer over David Ortiz fwiw.

[DaveW]

 

 

"

 

 

John Hicks was the #13-ranked-prospect for Seattle in the 2015 BA Prospect Handbook. Zach Jones was the #25-ranked-prospect for the Twins in the 2015 BA Prospect Handbook. So, your statement is baseless. I agree that Jones should have been protected instead of Hicks, but only because he was more likely to be lost NOT because he "is a bad baseball player" which is WRONG!

 

 

 

.

That was PRIOR to 2015, besides the Twins farm is much greater than the Mariners.

In 2015 Jones was an all-star

In 2015 John Hicks hit .083 in the majors (SSS) and had a .645 OPS in AAA

 

 

[goliath]

Not a big deal, the Twins can trade Plouffe to the Brewers to get him back

[sane09]

In 2015 Jones was an all-star

In 2015 John Hicks hit .083 in the majors (SSS) and had a .645 OPS in AAA

In 2015 Jones FAILED at AA.

IN 2015 Hicks played in MLB (where he batted infrequently and PLAYED in AAA.

[nicksaviking]

 

Come on, Dave. Hicks has all of 34 MLB PAs. He has started only ten games in MLB.

 

I'm not saying the guy is good but there's no way you have much more information than a stat line or public scouting reports on the guy.

 

I will never understand the teeth-gnashing that surrounds the 38-40 slots on a 40 man roster.

 

Maybe the Twins are wrong and will look foolish 2-3 years down the road. Maybe they won't. Time will tell.

 

I agree.

 

Of course on the other hand, if the historically awful at catcher Mariners are cutting bait on a guy.....

 

I would have rather had Jones than Fein or Dean, but I'd also rather see Burdi, Chargois, Meyer and maybe even Brandon Peterson before Jones.

 

Also, he was Milwaukee's 2nd pick and there's no way even the awful Brewers are carrying two Rule 5 guys all year.  I like Jones chances to stick better than a 1B, as relievers have been much easier to hide, but I'd think the chances that he's truley gone are no higher than 70%.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Guys I would rather have Jones on the 40 man roster than:

John Hicks: Yet another no hit catcher who has no real future in the bigs.

Fien: replacement level RP who can't strike anyone out. (Not cheap anymore)

Nunez: Why is he on the 40 man anymore? Santana can be the new super Util

 

The Twins 2016 tagline might as well be "Mediocrity > Upside"

 

Nunez has hit better than Santana and if he can't play short, Danny offers no real upside over Nunez besides playing CF (where the Twins are pretty well set). If Santana had options left we'd have him in the minors.  Nunez is around because anything can happen in spring training.

 

Reality is that the Twins were going to keep a 3rd catcher on the 40 man roster regardless. They always have. So if it wasn't Hicks it would be someone else. Hicks is only 25 and has some limited upside. I prefer him to the Herrmanns and Fryers who we know won't turn into anything.

 

Fien is a better argument but he's not a terrible arm to have in the pen - you just don't want to depend on him. Fien had a 117 ERA+ last year and is two years removed from a 10.6 K/9.  He's not elite and who knows if he can get back to that but maybe the Twins see something in him?

We may still get Jones back. He's still got to make the Brewers team and stick all year long. A few injuries are all it takes for that to no longer be worth it to them.

 

This seems like a pretty good scenario for the Twinkies. Michael wasn't taken and all they lost was a right handed arm that was nowhere near ML ready and is pretty redundant in the organization. It'd be great if we didn't lose Jonesy but still a pretty good outcome for the Twins.

[d-mac]

 

Losing Jones stings a bit but the org must feel he's too far from the majors to protect on the 40 man. It's the only reason that makes sense. They have to believe they'd go through this same situation next offseason as well.

 

No. No reason makes sense. Once again this organization proves they have no idea how to manage a 40 man roster. There were several players that should never have been protected. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

That was PRIOR to 2015, besides the Twins farm is much greater than the Mariners.

In 2015 Jones was an all-star

In 2015 John Hicks hit .083 in the majors (SSS) and had a .645 OPS in AAA

 

Catchers are different than pitchers. Pretty hard to compare them no matter which way you go on it.

 

Jones is a relief pitcher who did well in high A ball and struggled in AA. Hard to see him on the Twins this year and unlikely he's ready until far into 2017. I like his K rate too but it's not the catastrophic loss you're painting it to be.

[nicksaviking]

 

No. No reason makes sense. Once again this organization proves they have no idea how to manage a 40 man roster. There were several players that should never have been protected. 

 

I disagreed with exposing Jones and keeping Dean, but if the Twins are bad at this, the Yankees and Rays must be twice as terrible as they lost two players each.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Why risk it? Why risk it over a sub replacement level player like Hicks?

 

Again

Mediocrity > Upside on one Twins way.

 

This same line of thinking was what lead to choosing FatBeer over David Ortiz fwiw.

 

They like Hicks. You don't. They've been scouting him for a long time and see something useful in him. He's only 25. I'm siding with the Twins on this one but you're more than likely to be proven right.

[d-mac]

 

IMO, the Twins mistakenly left Zach Jones unprotected, (while protecting Pat Dean) because they did NOT factor into that decision THE PROBABILITY, that other teams WOULD NOT pick Pat Dean in Rule 5 because he is a little-known, barely-ranked non-prospect.
On the other hand Zach Jones was a well-known, highly-ranked prospect with big-time stuff, who was a much higher risk to be lost if unprotected.
Even if Pat Dean becomes Sean Gilmartin 2016, I doubt that he had much chance of being lost in the Rule 5 Draft.
It IS possible that the Twins lack of LH SP depth may have been the real reason that Pat Dean was protected and Zach Jones was not.

 

Yet another reason for the "Why does it matter what hand a starting pitcher throws with?" argument.

[gunnarthor]

 

No need for personal attacks.

 

The thing is, I don't want Fien on the roster to begin with "proven or not" it's proven mediocrity.

 

As far as Hicks, he isn't a proven Major League player at all, he hit .063 in his cup of coffee and had a .645 OPS in AAA as a 25 year old (plus he had 20 passed balls) That isn't proven at all.

Fien was a 1.0 WAR pitcher last year in  63 ip.  That's actually pretty good for a relief pitcher.  Don't like WAR?  Only 18% of his inherited runners scored.  Also very good for a relief pitcher.  His one stat that looks bad was his k-rate, which is the only stat that of Jones' that looks good.  

 

And the "settling for mediocrity" BS you keep posting gets old, really fast.  We get it, you don't like Ryan.  But as many have explained, his moves make sense and what you want would make the team much worse.

[sane09]

 

Zach Jones at AA.

AA        3 2   6.00   27   18 30 .247   1.56
Level    W-L  ERA   G   BB  K  BAA  WHIP

 

[DaveW]

 

I disagreed with exposing Jones and keeping Dean, but if the Twins are bad at this, the Yankees and Rays must be twice as terrible as they lost two players each.

Yeah Dean seems especially redundant in this org, he is pretty far down on the list of "SP" options at the major league level.

 

I doubt he would even be selected.