The Twins On Base Problem

gopherman23 · November 12, 2015

The Twins were 28th in all of MLB in OBP this past season. Only Philly and Miami were worse. Their is a pretty strong correlation between getting on base and scoring runs. Here is a look at how are projected lineup looks in that regard:

Dozier- Career .314 OBP. His .345 mark in 2014 is looking like an abberation

Mauer- .338 OBP last year and it has been decling the past four years.

Sano- Should lead the team by a wide margin in OBP.

Park- Who knows what to expect, but doesn't project as high OBP guy

Arcia- .305 career OBP and low walk rate.

Plouffe- .308 career OBP

Rosario- .289 OBP last season + very low walk rate.

Escobar- .303 career OBP

Suzuki/Ryan- .312 career OBP for Suzuki. Ryan had a career .327 OBP in the minors, and has a .311 OBP in his short career so far.

So far none of the moves Ryan has made has really addressed this problem. The hope is that Buxton and Kepler can help in this area at some point next season, but that is little more than hope at this point. I'm a bit worried going into next season, that we don't have enough guys that will consistently get on base.

ashbury · November 12, 2015

Balance is important, once you achieve general competence that is. If you skew towards high OBP but without power, you need 3 guys to get on base just to score 1 run (or 0 runs if that third baserunner is a walk). High ISO alone leads to too many solo HR, as you suggested.

The Twins were at the AL bottom in OBP and almost at the bottom with BA. Their isolated power ISO was near the middle ranks, but still below the mean. So it's not a bad thing in and of itself to go after some more power, such as with the Park signing. But there will be diminishing returns on such investment, if getting guys on base isn't addressed.

With several key players being still young, it's not unreasonable to hope/expect OBP improvement simply with experience. But adding one or two "ignitor" types could pay dividends out of proportion to usual expectations; success in this way may get attributed by beat writers as being due to some kind of special moxie that sparks the whole team, but really it will be from having guys on base in front of the boppers.

Escobar seems like a candidate that we already have in-house. I do like his balanced approach to power that leads to a bit of punch from an unlikely location on the diamond; but for this team, maybe his better contribution could be to forego the power (situationally of course) and turn himself into a genuine leadoff hitter. I just sense that he's a smart hitter, and maybe could.

Mike Sixel · November 12, 2015

There is a great article on FG and the value of adding OBP hitters to a team of bad OBP, but high SLG. It was probably from around July of last year.

The basic conclusion was that if you are a HR hitting team, adding another HR hitter actually makes more sense than adding 1 high OBP hitter. Now, if you want to add 3 high OBP hitters, that's a different thing, but that's not real likely right now.

KGB · November 12, 2015

I think the correlation between OBP and Runs scored is becoming a thing of the past in today’s game.   It’s more a game of power, with the slugging percentage being a better indication of scoring. Here’s how the top 10 teams in runs scored rated in OBP & SLG:
Team              runs-rank            OBP-rank       SLG-rank
Blue Jays                 1                      1                     1
Yankees                   2                      9                     4
Rangers                    3                      5                     10
Red Sox                    4                      6                     7
Rockies                     5                     15                    3
Astros                        6                     16                    2
Royals                       7                     11                    11
Diamondbacks           8                     8                       8
Orioles                        9                    24                     5
Nationals                   10                   12                    15

gopherman23 · November 12, 2015

I think the correlation between OBP and Runs scored is becoming a thing of the past in today’s game. It’s more a game of power, with the slugging percentage being a better indication of scoring. Here’s how the top 10 teams in runs scored rated in OBP & SLG:
Team runs-rank OBP-rank SLG-rank
Blue Jays 1 1 1
Yankees 2 9 4
Rangers 3 5 10
Red Sox 4 6 7
Rockies 5 15 3
Astros 6 16 2
Royals 7 11 11
Diamondbacks 8 8 8
Orioles 9 24 5
Nationals 10 12 15

That is only one season though. I went back to 2014 and the only team in the top 10 in runs scored who had an OBP outside the top 10 was baltimore. Anything can happen over the course of one season, but if you take a 10 year sample size, the correlation between runs scored and OBP is pretty strong. wOBA is an even better, albeit more comlicated metric.

gunnarthor · November 12, 2015

I do think the teams OBP has to improve or they will see a decline in runs. In another thread I pointed out that 7 guys accounted for 2250 or so PA with a sub .300 OBP. Of those 7, only Rosario and Suzuki will be starters out of ST. Rosario should improve. Long term, Buxton should be a high on-base guy. Addtionally, 1000 of those PA went to Hunter, Vargas and Danny Santana and most of those PA (hopefully) will be given to Sano, Park and Escobar. So, we'll see how they do.

stringer bell · November 12, 2015

That was the most disconcerting thing about trading Hicks, whose on-base skills are pretty advanced.

Oldgoat_MN · November 12, 2015

Rosario's OBP in the minors was .340.

Not amazing, but I expect him to improve from last year.

Need more from the others, too. A bad thing.

Winston Smith · November 12, 2015

I think Aoki would be a good fit not only a higher OBP guy but would fill an outfield spot that is slim with proven outfielders.

I'm not sure a patch work outfield for a month or two, while hoping for some prospects to come thru, is a good idea except that the games early in the season don't count as much.

bluechipper · November 12, 2015

What happened to Brian Dozier? He was third in the AL with 89 walks in 2014, but had only 61 last year. I wonder if he'll make it a point of emphasis to improve on that next year.

gunnarthor · November 12, 2015

What happened to Brian Dozier? He was third in the AL with 89 walks in 2014, but had only 61 last year. I wonder if he'll make it a point of emphasis to improve on that next year.

I think injuries played at least some part. He really fell off a cliff after June - .643 OPS over his last 84 games. Let's hope being healthy gets a big improvement.

Willihammer · November 12, 2015

I'm not too worried TBH. In 2014 they were among the league leaders in OBP. Seems like kind of a fickle thing. I think its safe to bank on Mauer, Dozier, Plouffe, Sano and Escobar getting on at a .300+ clip and some improvement from Rosario/Park/catcher collectively.

TNLooky2015 · November 12, 2015

That's why the Twins minor league teams have been winning championships. A handful of really good OBP guys and some power behind them to change the score with one swing. High OBP doesn't = runs unless you have some hits to go within those On base percentages. Aaron Hicks had a high OBP a few years ago but was sent down because he didn't hit. Every team needs run producers! The Twins have only had 2 guys with 100 RBI in the last 6 years (Willingham in 2012 and Young in 2010). Everybody wants high OBP guys like the Royals, but their are only so many teams that can duplicate what the Royals do and did. Even the Royals went out and got Morales to drive in his 100+ RBI this year. The Royals only had one other year since 2003 where they had a guy drive in 100+ RBI. Needless to say - they haven't been good during that span either. For the record: Toronto had 7 guys with double digit HRs (that doesn't include Tulo) and 3 guys with 100+ RBI. What is our team make up at it's best?

The Royals went from 3 guys with double digit HRs last year (when they lost the series) to 6 guys this season when they won the series. They also had 3 guys with 20+ HRs for the first time since 2000. POWER & OBP have to compliment each other in some way. Just shows how much Torii and his 81 RBI and 22 HRs helped with the overall success of the Twins this year.

Knowing what you know - How would you put your line up together? OBP guys / Power guys / or Both?

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

KGB · November 12, 2015

That is only one season though. I went back to 2014 and the only team in the top 10 in runs scored who had an OBP outside the top 10 was baltimore. Anything can happen over the course of one season, but if you take a 10 year sample size, the correlation between runs scored and OBP is pretty strong. wOBA is an even better, albeit more comlicated metric.

Here's some trend based on the standard deviation from runs scored (the smaller the deviation, the better comparison):

Year's OBP SLG

1990-'95 2.79 2.89

2000-'05 2.20 2.57

2010-'15 3.72 2.57

2015 4.74 3.31

I think it's trending away from OBP and more to SLG.

RedBull34 · November 12, 2015

That's why the Twins minor league teams have been winning championships. A handful of really good OBP guys and some power behind them to change the score with one swing. High OBP doesn't = runs unless you have some hits to go within those On base percentages. Aaron Hicks had a high OBP a few years ago but was sent down because he didn't hit. Every team needs run producers! The Twins have only had 2 guys with 100 RBI in the last 6 years (Willingham in 2012 and Young in 2010). Everybody wants high OBP guys like the Royals, but their are only so many teams that can duplicate what the Royals do and did. Even the Royals went out and got Morales to drive in his 100+ RBI this year. The Royals only had one other year since 2003 where they had a guy drive in 100+ RBI. Needless to say - they haven't been good during that span either. For the record: Toronto had 7 guys with double digit HRs (that doesn't include Tulo) and 3 guys with 100+ RBI. What is our team make up at it's best?

The Royals went from 3 guys with double digit HRs last year (when they lost the series) to 6 guys this season when they won the series. They also had 3 guys with 20+ HRs for the first time since 2000. POWER & OBP have to compliment each other in some way. Just shows how much Torii and his 81 RBI and 22 HRs helped with the overall success of the Twins this year.

Knowing what you know - How would you put your line up together? OBP guys / Power guys / or Both?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

Obviously it takes some blending here but generally:

1. High OBP, w/ some speed

2. High OBP

3. High SLG

4. Best Hitter

5. High SLG, less then 3 though probably.

6 - 9 best guys by order.

RedBull34 · November 12, 2015

Here's some trend based on the standard deviation from runs scored (the smaller the deviation, the better comparison):

Year's                     OBP                     SLG
1990-'95                 2.79                      2.89
2000-'05                 2.20                      2.57
2010-'15                 3.72                      2.57
2015                       4.74                      3.31

I think it's trending away from OBP and more to SLG.

Chicks dig the long ball.

Dantes929 · November 12, 2015

That was the most disconcerting thing about trading Hicks, whose on-base skills are pretty advanced.

No one seemed to care about his on base skills in 2014 even when I pointed out his OBP was better than Revere's despite Revere's average being 90 points better than HIcks. I think Hicks took the lack of value placed on OBP to heart because he improved his BA in 2015 by 41 points but his OBP went down 18 points and the result was considered to have turned the corner. I expect him to get more aggressive as a result.

Dantes929 · November 12, 2015

There is a great article on FG and the value of adding OBP hitters to a team of bad OBP, but high SLG. It was probably from around July of last year.

The basic conclusion was that if you are a HR hitting team, adding another HR hitter actually makes more sense than adding 1 high OBP hitter. Now, if you want to add 3 high OBP hitters, that's a different thing, but that's not real likely right now.

At least in his league Park has shown he is both. OBP has been over .430 each of the last three years. I have no idea how that translates. I have always been an OBP guy but they don't need to go out to get tthree of them. Dozier needs to use all fields even at the sacrifice of power. Mauer has been elite in OBP category and needs to be more so next year and Buxton, Rosario and Escobar can all make improvements over 2015.

Toronto once had 100 more home runs than the Twins but scored fewer runs. That is astounding. This year they led in home runs but also OBP and led the league in runs. Power and OBP are not mutually exclusive. Morneau, Kubel and Thome were all high OBP guys. I expect Sano and Park to be the same.

Mike Sixel · November 12, 2015

At least in his league Park has shown he is both. OBP has been over .430 each of the last three years. I have no idea how that translates. I have always been an OBP guy but they don't need to go out to get tthree of them. Dozier needs to use all fields even at the sacrifice of power. Mauer has been elite in OBP category and needs to be more so next year and Buxton, Rosario and Escobar can all make improvements over 2015.
Toronto once had 100 more home runs than the Twins but scored fewer runs. That is astounding. This year they led in home runs but also OBP and led the league in runs. Power and OBP are not mutually exclusive. Morneau, Kubel and Thome were all high OBP guys. I expect Sano and Park to be the same.

I agree with all of this, but the premise of the thread is that they can't win w/o OBP improving.....I was merely pointing out a pretty interesting study that shows that might not be true. Nothing more or less....

dgwills · November 12, 2015

I think OBP is the reason we should try to trade Plouffe this year and Dozier next year. If you replace them with Sano and Polanco you improve OBP quite a bit. Of course this assumes Polanco continues to improve which is by no means a sure thing. Rosario really hasn't had a good OBP since his suspension. Considering how he hit before that I think he will end up with a respectable number. Buxton and Kepler should help this stat as well. I haven't given up on Vargas either as he has some good OBP numbers in the minors. Plenty of power coming along as well which the Twins seem to be focusing on.

Overall I think we will end up with a good looking lineup for the next few years. What I'm really worried about is the mediocre pitching.

jimmer · November 13, 2015

I think the correlation between OBP and Runs scored is becoming a thing of the past in today’s game.   It’s more a game of power, with the slugging percentage being a better indication of scoring. Here’s how the top 10 teams in runs scored rated in OBP & SLG:
Team              runs-rank            OBP-rank       SLG-rank
Blue Jays                 1                      1                     1
Yankees                   2                      9                     4
Rangers                    3                      5                     10
Red Sox                    4                      6                     7
Rockies                     5                     15                    3
Astros                        6                     16                    2
Royals                       7                     11                    11
Diamondbacks           8                     8                       8
Orioles                        9                    24                     5
Nationals                   10                   12                    15

A lot of weird things happened this year. Not sure one year makes a trend (cough Hughes, Suzuki, D Santana). I think if you look over the last few years, there's a very strong correlation to OBP and runs scored. Seems to be how it was last time I looked into it anyway.

darin617 · November 13, 2015

Dozier needs to quit trying to be a HR hitter and improve his overall game.

TNLooky2015 · November 13, 2015

The question becomes:

What do you consider a good OBP? _____

What do you consider a Power hitter? ____ HRs ____ RBI

Or is OPS the only thing that truly matters? ______

Is OPS position related or has the game changed where it only matters the number of guys in your lineup who are capable of this (OBP) or that (SLG)??

TNLooky2015 · November 13, 2015

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/obp/

ACCORDING TO FANGRAPH - OBP SCALE

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ops/

OPS SCALE

They don't even show SLG as a single scale.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/iso/

ISO SCALE (SLG minus AVG.)

Who in our current line up is average to better in any of these categories? Find them and ride with that IMO. We are a jack of all trades and master of none type of team - Except Mauer and Sano. They master one and both respectively.

Dantes929 · November 13, 2015

The question becomes:
What do you consider a good OBP? _____
What do you consider a Power hitter? ____ HRs ____ RBI

Or is OPS the only thing that truly matters? ______

Is OPS position related or has the game changed where it only matters the number of guys in your lineup who are capable of this (OBP) or that (SLG)??

I always thought Revere made up for his weak throwing arm by having the speed to turn hits into outs. I don't think his average makes up for his lack of power and always said for him to be a useful leadoff hitter he didn't need to hit .320 but he needed to get on base one way or the other 35% of the time. He came close this year. Denard Span was always considered a good on base guy and he is at .352 for career so I think anything over .350 would be considered good. I don't know how much this tied into Mike's article about adding one power guy being more valuable than one OBP guy but they often are not mutually exclusive. Adam Dunn struck out a ton and had a low BA but got on base .367 of the time. Killebrew was similar. Thome was great at getting on base. Some of this is due to intentional walks but it all has value. I know Park has a lot to adjust to and I expect a lot of strike outs but a lot of strike outs does not mean few walks.

Shane Wahl · November 13, 2015

Obviously it takes some blending here but generally:

1. High OBP, w/ some speed
2. High OBP
3. High SLG
4. Best Hitter
5. High SLG, less then 3 though probably.
6 - 9 best guys by order.

Yes, which is why Hicks would have been good to have around at the top of the order for now. Now it reverts to Dozier, I guess. Dozier-Mauer-Park-Sano-Arcia maybe?

jimmer · November 13, 2015

The question becomes:
What do you consider a good OBP? _____
What do you consider a Power hitter? ____ HRs ____ RBI

Or is OPS the only thing that truly matters? ______

Is OPS position related or has the game changed where it only matters the number of guys in your lineup who are capable of this (OBP) or that (SLG)??

jimmer · November 13, 2015

Sorry I am doing this in my phone. I quoted that and my response is that I like wRC+ myself. IMO OPS doesn't credit OBP enough.

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