The Front Office and Settling For Mediocrity

[glunn]

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As ChiTown and others have noted, we seem to plow a lot of the same ground whenever TR makes a move.  The same posters tend to say the same things over and over, and there are clearly two extreme factions and a lot of people in the middle.  Let's just try to be more civil.

[Hugh Morris]

Let's put the shoe on the other foot. When was the last time Terry Ryan traded a MiLB journeyman Shane Green clone for a MLB underperformer who suddenly became a 3.5 WAR SS for the Yanks (Gregorius)? (The closest TR could come to that type of trade was trading a proven near ace in- Liriano for Escobar- whose top WAR for the Twins is 2,0 WAR.

 

I'll go with the guy with the track record.

Any chance you're available to teach Murphy framing? Because this is a masterpiece.

 

The Yankees traded a "MiLB" journeyman (who was all of 25, and spent his career with the Yankees) who'd just put up a 3.78 ERA (and 3.73 FIP) with 9.3 K/9 rookie season (over 15 starts) for Didi.

TR traded half a season of Francisco Liriano (5.31 ERA, 4.51 FIP), a pitcher so miserable that evidently nobody besides Chicago wanted him (unless Ryan's goal was to trade him in-division to help crater their postseason efforts. In which case, that should be extra points) in exchange for Escobar. Liriano's value was so high at the time, Pittsburgh managed to sign him in the offseason on a 12m/2yr deal _{(that whole contract was a mess and pre-accident figures aren't readily available)}. "Proven near-ace" indeed.

 

Also Fuld/Milone sure looks pretty good, especially when factoring in the cost of acquiring Fuld in the first place.

 

Again, provide evidence to the contrary. The Twins are regarded as having one of the top 3 or 5 farm systems in all of baseball. Since all of the prospects can't fit onto a 40-man roster, it seems incumbent on the Twins to deal from their position of strength and expend an extra prospect or two in a package deal to get an elite catcher, not a back-up. But you'll just keep shaking your head.

Okay. Jokin? You're better than this. I don't always agree with your posting, but you're prolific and intelligent, and typically a delight to read. There will never be publicly available evidence (short of a Cardinalsesque hack) to be provided. I have to assume you're aware of that. Insisting upon it is cheap rhetorical hackery and below your usual standards. I'm aware jsteve's been taking (thankfully) redacted shots at you in the thread. Continue to be better than that.

 

Did Terry Ryan have serious conversations with any other teams about Aaron Hicks? None of us (unless Jack Goin is still dropping in) will ever know that answer. Is there any possibility of discussion on this question that will make someone change their mind? I can't see a path to that. Which makes any further discussion (for either side) tedious.

 

A quick note on Fangraphs Catcher WAR: Framing is not factored into Fangraphs Catcher WAR (per: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/catcher-defense/). Per BaseballProspectus, Murphy was one of the top pitch framers during his time in AA/AAA.

[BrianTrottier]

If not a catcher with legitimate starter potential, what would have been a fair return for Hicks? 

[BrianTrottier]

 

Snark all you want, but Hundley had an .807 OPS last year which was higher than EVERY SINGLE TWIN other than Sano last year. 50 points more than Dozier, 100 more than Hunter.

 

Hundley isn't great, and is close to the 12th best catcher then the 5th best.

 

After OPSing .631 in 2014 (77 OPS+), .679 in 2013 (94 OPS+),  and .464 in 2012 (32 OPS+), though admittedly with some success in 2011 when he put up an OPS of .824. But given his recent past, his 2015 numbers appear to be a product of playing in Colorado than any standout ability as a catcher to hit.

[sorney]

 

If not a catcher with legitimate starter potential, what would have been a fair return for Hicks? 

I honestly don't know what exactly would be fair...I think, and I could be way off base, but the general feeling is there is now a huge hole in the outfield for a less than impressive (at least in actual performance) platoon-ish partner with Suzuki.   Hopefully it works out, and I know there still is a lot of time in the offseason, it just has that feel of the last couple offseasons...pick up a nice player to start, but nothing else materializes and Twins are forced to use a Sano-Rosario-Arcia (77 runs saved from last year are coming back)  OF while waiting for Buxton/Kepler to return.

[notoriousgod71]

 

Because the Yankees have McCann, Gary Sanchez and Luis Torrens as catchers.

Without Zuki,/Pinto the Twins would have had no one to stop the pitches from rolling to the backstop.

 

Perhaps this is where the "pitch to contact" mantra originated. We could save a lot of money if we just did not employ a single catcher!

[drjim]

Not sure how you came to this conclusion... who was starting in CF in your scenario?

Buxton. Barring a complete collapse in spring training he's starting. Twins wouldn't do this otherwise.

 

The noise that is coming out of the front office is them not just handing the job to Buxton. But it's his. Always was.

[nicksaviking]

 

Honest question: What "better" offensive players deserve Hicks at bats in April and May?

Let's assume that Rosario locks down a spot. That's one of 3 spots down.

 

Buxton: You really want to start him in the majors, and he is "better" as of April 1st then Hicks? After his massive struggles in the bigs?

 

Kepler: You want to start this guy in the bigs beginning of the year? Hasn't had any real at bats above AA?

 

Arcia: Coming off what could only be called a "terrible year" at best?

 

Again, it's not that you need ONE of those guys to be better than Hicks, you need TWO. The odds that two are a better option then him April 1st? Slim to none. June 15th? 25% July 31st? 40%

 

I don't mind trading him, I mind trading him for such a small and low upside return.

 

At this point I think it's best that Buxton and Kepler start in AAA.

 

But I don't think it's hard to imagine Arcia, Vargas and Park all being better offensive players than Hicks and by getting rid of Hicks, there is still room for the better hitting Trevor Plouffe (who I still don't mind trading).

 

And that's not taking into consideration that Ryan still might get a RH OF bench/platoon bat not named Robinson.  I just don't think Hicks' production is going to be hard to top. 

[Intramural Legend]

 

Moderator note -- I have just deleted a number of posts that contained personal attacks and bickering.  Posters need to follow TD policy or their posting privileges will be suspended. Our policy can be found here:  http://twinsdaily.com/topic/8228-twins-daily-comment-policy-latest-revision-september-2013/

 

As ChiTown and others have noted, we seem to plow a lot of the same ground whenever TR makes a move.  The same posters tend to say the same things over and over, and there are clearly two extreme factions and a lot of people in the middle.  Let's just try to be more civil.

 

I'm just so angry they traded a guy I didn't like last year for a guy I didn't know much about yesterday!

[jokin]

 

Buxton. Barring a complete collapse in spring training he's starting. Twins wouldn't do this otherwise.

The noise that is coming out of the front office is them not just handing the job to Buxton. But it's his. Always was.

 

It seems like a lot of assumption here on your part, and contrary to all public statements made by management, up to and including the most recent statements. Perhaps there was some code-speak to push Buck along in the process.... But.... The Rosario/Arcia/Sano opening day OF practically wrote itself into the lineup for Molitor the moment this trade was announced.

 

I'll be pleasantly surprised, but still stunned, if Buxton is on the roster on opening day.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

The Rosario/Arcia/Sano opening day OF practically wrote itself into the lineup for Molitor the moment this trade was announced.

 

The team can talk about Sano in the OF all they want, but I'd be shocked if that's the starting OF in 2016.  If this team isn't sure if Buxton will be ready to go, I feel quite confident a free agent is going to be signed, and someone better than Shane Robinson.  It's only November.

 

If we're still having this conversation in February, then I'll questioning the moves.

[bird]

 

Evidence to support this? 

 

You are completely missing the point, which is, the Twins needed to get more from this deal... and now they open 2016 with a greatly downgraded OF defense- to obtain a minor upgrade at catcher.

 

Tongue in cheek. The point, which apparently was missed, is that we can tediously argue the trade on the basis of our own personal opinions about the future performance of the players involved. No one's opinion constitutes evidence, nor do Steamer projections.

 

The trade served a purpose, which was to upgrade the lineup at two spots. Everyone is free to opine about whether it will do this. You opine that they needed more and predict the outfield will be downgraded. Good for you. The board is split on this.

[drjim]

The team can talk about Sano in the OF all they want, but I'd be shocked if that's the starting OF in 2016. If this team isn't sure if Buxton will be ready to go, I feel quite confident a free agent is going to be signed, and someone better than Shane Robinson. It's only November.

 

If we're still having this conversation in February, then I'll questioning the moves.

I would be shocked too. I still think Plouffe is moved and they sign a RH OF to compete with Arcia to bridge to Kepler.

[gunnarthor]

 

hey if you think that one post season series win in 17 years is success, then more power to you. I'm just stating the facts, I have nothing against TR, I just don't think he is very good at his job any more and should take the President role (I do think St. Peter should have been fired ever since his cancer kid/Cordova commercial)

You're not saying "facts" in any useful situation though.  You're purposefully ignoring all the situations unique to the Twins GM position that Ryan had to deal with to make your one "fact" look accurate.  Anyone can list a bunch of facts that, out of context, deliberately deceive others - frankly, it happens all the time, esp in politics.  But if you want to pretend that your one fact out of context is fair you shouldn't get all offended when everyone else thinks you have an ax to grind instead of an actual valid opinion.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I can't believe I just read that whole thread.....I need a pizza and a beverage now.

 

That said, up until now, I would agree. Ryan has never gone big. He sat on his hands for the most part in the dome days when they were just 1 hitter away, imo.

 

But, I am not going to judge this Ryan until February. I think there is evidence he might be going for it this year. I have no idea if this is the year to do it, but he probably only has 3 years or so left. If this is it, I'll agree, once again he settled.

 

A risky move =/= an aggressive move. Those are not the same thing. There is clearly risk in this deal (there is also risk in doing nothing.....), but I wouldn't call it aggressive or shooting for the stars or going big. I also wouldn't call the Park deal going big, frankly. I have my doubts, but I also see a glimmer that things will be different this year. I'm not holding my breath, I'm not raising my hopes, but I'm not abandoning hope that something is different this year either.

[DaveW]

 

You're not saying "facts" in any useful situation though.  You're purposefully ignoring all the situations unique to the Twins GM position that Ryan had to deal with to make your one "fact" look accurate.  Anyone can list a bunch of facts that, out of context, deliberately deceive others - frankly, it happens all the time, esp in politics.  But if you want to pretend that your one fact out of context is fair you shouldn't get all offended when everyone else thinks you have an ax to grind instead of an actual valid opinion.

What unique situations am I ignoring? The Twins don't have small payroll limitations anymore! They have the ability to sign anyone they want, Terry Ryan spent well over 100 million the last two off-sesaon on pitching, 3 pitchers who are mid rotation type guys, he spent 10 million last year on a replacement level 40 year old RF when he could have easily had Nelson Cruz.

 

It's not an ax to grind, as little as 2 years ago I still thought Ryan was the man for the job, but after observing how he runs this team, the moves he does and doesn't make it's clear to me that they need some new blood.

[DaveW]

 

 

I can't believe I just read that whole thread.....I need a pizza and a beverage now.

 

That said, up until now, I would agree. Ryan has never gone big. He sat on his hands for the most part in the dome days when they were just 1 hitter away, imo.

 

But, I am not going to judge this Ryan until February. I think there is evidence he might be going for it this year. I have no idea if this is the year to do it, but he probably only has 3 years or so left. If this is it, I'll agree, once again he settled.

 

A risky move =/= an aggressive move. Those are not the same thing. There is clearly risk in this deal (there is also risk in doing nothing.....), but I wouldn't call it aggressive or shooting for the stars or going big. I also wouldn't call the Park deal going big, frankly. I have my doubts, but I also see a glimmer that things will be different this year. I'm not holding my breath, I'm not raising my hopes, but I'm not abandoning hope that something is different this year either.

The Pak deal  is a nice one, but I agree, it isn't "going big" the contract he will sign (and ultimately the posting fee) will average out to like 9-10 million total a year, basically a mid range FA signing, albeit one with some nice upside.

[DaveW]

 

The Yankees traded a "MiLB" journeyman (who was all of 25, and spent his career with the Yankees) who'd just put up a 3.78 ERA (and 3.73 FIP) with 9.3 K/9 rookie season (over 15 starts) for Didi.
TR traded half a season of Francisco Liriano (5.31 ERA, 4.51 FIP), a pitcher so miserable that evidently nobody besides Chicago wanted him (unless Ryan's goal was to trade him in-division to help crater their postseason efforts. In which case, that should be extra points) in exchange for Escobar. Liriano's value was so high at the time, Pittsburgh managed to sign him in the offseason on a 12m/2yr deal _{(that whole contract was a mess and pre-accident figures aren't readily available)}. "Proven near-ace" indeed.

 

As I said at the time, the Twins never should have traded Liriano, instead they should have allowed him to "let it fly" as Pittsburgh did, and should have signed him themselves to an extension. Letting him go because he didn't fit the "Twins way" was a major mistake and we haven't had anything close to an ace like pitcher since he left.

[jokin]

 

The team can talk about Sano in the OF all they want, but I'd be shocked if that's the starting OF in 2016.  If this team isn't sure if Buxton will be ready to go, I feel quite confident a free agent is going to be signed, and someone better than Shane Robinson.  It's only November.

 

If we're still having this conversation in February, then I'll questioning the moves.

 

The field for a quality veteran OF will be limited by the fact that the Twins will be seeking someone on a one-year deal which means limiting the search for Shane Robinson types or guys looking to rebuild value, and not someone who would cost a draft pick.  Which means, what?- Drew Stubbs, Justin Ruggiano and Will Venable... and Shane Robinson.

[DaveW]

 

The field for a quality veteran OF will be limited by the fact that the Twins will be seeking someone on a one-year deal which means limiting the search for Shane Robinson types or guys looking to rebuild value, and not someone who would cost a draft pick.  Which means, what?- Drew Stubbs, Justin Ruggiano and Will Venable... and Shane Robinson.

It's all setting itself up nicely for a Torii Hunter signing in early June.

[nicksaviking]

 

The field for a quality veteran OF will be limited by the fact that the Twins will be seeking someone on a one-year deal which means limiting the search for Shane Robinson types or guys looking to rebuild value, and not someone who would cost a draft pick.  Which means, what?- Drew Stubbs, Justin Ruggiano and Will Venable... and Shane Robinson.

 

How many years are my pet players Chris Young and Ryan Raburn going to get?  I can't imagine more than two, and quite possibly only one.  I don't see a two year deal dissuading the Twins.

[Target Field of Dreams]

 

A tiny bit?

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20699-is-this-ryans-swan-song/?hl=ryan

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20414-expectations-for-terry-ryan-moving-forward/?hl=ryan

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20013-ryans-bullpen/?hl=ryan

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19761-terry-ryan-is-it-time-for-him-to-step-down-is-he-to-blame/?hl=ryan

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19684-should-terry-ryans-job-be-this-secure/?hl=ryan

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19666-terry-ryan-and-the-pathetic-pickups-game/?hl=ryan

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18850-dear-mr-ryan/?hl=ryan

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18604-when-does-terry-ryan-do-something-about-this-offense/?hl=ryan

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/17706-does-terry-ryan-have-what-it-takes-to-lead-the-twins-in-2015/?hl=ryan

 

And that's just in the last 6-7 months, and are only the threads with his name in the title. Believe me ... I am frustrated, too. And I have made my thoughts clear on this subject many times over the past 2-3 years as being time for him to move on, but Dave, you are the master of overkill and over exaggeration. So I repeat ... a tiny bit?

 

 

That last link is mine from 7 games into the season. While I was over-reacting to our extremely poor start to the season, I think Terry may have read my article (or more likely decided on his own to do what I was suggesting) and it absolutely turned the season around. He brought up young guys and the team flourished in 2015 and put us in position to do what he is doing now, trying to get us over the hump into perennial contention. 

 

I for one am excited to see these moves from Ryan. He traded Hicks when his value was high for a player at a position of need that is an absolute improvement over what we had. 

 

Excited to see what he does the rest of the offseason!

[jokin]

 

How many years are my pet players Chris Young and Ryan Raburn going to get?  I can't imagine more than two, and quite possibly only one.  I don't see a two year deal dissuading the Twins.

 

Adding yet another veteran blocking presence beyond one year? I like them both, but not multi-year, which I'm sure Young will insist upon as he's already built his value with the Yanks. Meanwhile, Raburn doesn't help the OF defense.

[jokin]

Hugh Morris, on 12 Nov 2015 - 01:03 AM, said:

 

 

The Yankees traded a "MiLB" journeyman (who was all of 25, and spent his career with the Yankees) who'd just put up a 3.78 ERA (and 3.73 FIP) with 9.3 K/9 rookie season (over 15 starts) for Didi.

TR traded half a season of Francisco Liriano (5.31 ERA, 4.51 FIP), a pitcher so miserable that evidently nobody besides Chicago wanted him (unless Ryan's goal was to trade him in-division to help crater their postseason efforts. In which case, that should be extra points) in exchange for Escobar. Liriano's value was so high at the time, Pittsburgh managed to sign him in the offseason on a 12m/2yr deal (that whole contract was a mess and pre-accident figures aren't readily available). "Proven near-ace" indeed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

As I said at the time, the Twins never should have traded Liriano, instead they should have allowed him to "let it fly" as Pittsburgh did, and should have signed him themselves to an extension. Letting him go because he didn't fit the "Twins way" was a major mistake and we haven't had anything close to an ace like pitcher since he left.

 

I said it too, Dave.  Sorry, Hugh, you have exposed Ryan's big flaw in his grand strategy, and yet something he's most proud about- ie, giving up and trading a legit major league impact player at the lowest possible value, mostly as a fiscal budget-saver in exchange for expendable and easily-acquired role players.  There were many of us at the time that pleaded with the organization to, at worst, retain Liriano for the remainder of the season and make the QO, and at best, re-sign Liriano with incentives while bringing in an upgrade at the pitching coach position to get Liriano back on track. And yes, Liriano has "indeed" come back with a vengeance, as many of us anticipated at the time Ryan dumped him.

 

And many of us were involved in multiple threads and multiple pages to discuss targeting Didi Gregorius in early 2014 as a buy-low when the D-Backs let it be known he was being shopped. We had plenty of pitchers to trade that projected similarly or better to entice Arizona than former 15th round draft pick, Shane Green (he technically went to Detroit in the 3-way deal), who, in point of fact spent 6 years journeying through the Yankees farm system with mixed results before his "it's now or never", flash in the pan brief success with the Yanks. Again, although you seem to want to build up Green's perceived value, the Yanks got a 25-year old former Top 60 SS, who demonstrated elite fielding skills in 2015 and with 5 years of team control left.

 

There's no way to spin this to make the Twins look good, Cashman got a steal of a deal, and the Twins could have had Didi anytime in 2014 for about the same cost or a little more. Hopefully, Ryan wasn't the one taken this time by Cashman in this latest deal.

[spinowner]

 

I was going to "like" this, but there are no playoffs in baseball.  Post season

There are playoffs. Those are the game(s) played to break a regular season tie to determine who qualifies for the postseason.

[nicksaviking]

 

Adding yet another veteran blocking presence beyond one year? I like them both, but not multi-year, which I'm sure Young will insist upon as he's already built his value with the Yanks. Meanwhile, Raburn doesn't help the OF defense.

 

I've been all about the youth movement, but I can't imagine any reason a veteran OF would block the younger players, aside from Buxton they are all lefties.  There almost certainly will be a righty OF bench bat this year and next regardless of his offensive skill level.  We're basically talking about filling the role the front office wanted for Hunter.

[jokin]

 

I've been all about the youth movement, but I can't imagine any reason a veteran OF would block the younger players, aside from Buxton they are all lefties.  There almost certainly will be a righty OF bench bat this year and next regardless of his offensive skill level.  We're basically talking about filling the role the front office wanted for Hunter.

 

I wish that would be the case, but Robinson somehow started around 50 games in 2015 (the Twins love to reward the gritty FA vets with bonus playing time)- Shane had never started more than 30 games in any one season before this year. If Rosario starts out the season in CF, flanked by Sano and Arcia, it will probably be less than 10 games before Robinson or whichever RH journeyman vet they sign is moved into CF- shortly after the pitching staff threatens revolt.

[spinowner]

 

I wish that would be the case, but Robinson somehow started around 50 games in 2015 (the Twins love to reward the gritty FA vets with bonus playing time)- Shane had never started more than 30 games in any one season before this year. If Rosario starts out the season in CF, flanked by Sano and Arcia, it will probably be less than 10 games before Robinson or whichever RH journeyman vet they sign is moved into CF- shortly after the pitching staff threatens revolt.

50 outfield starts isn't as many as you may think. In 162 games there are 486 outfield starts. If 4 outfielders split the load equally it's 121.5 starts each. I'd guess starting 50 games is pretty typical for a 4th outfielder.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Fwiw I'd be willing to wager a healthy amount that AJ outhits Murph dog by at least .25 ops points

Given the defensive differences between the two, that means Murphy is hugely more valuable.

 

That's akin to implying Arcia is a better player than Buxton if he OPSes .025 higher.

[jokin]

 

50 outfield starts isn't as many as you may think. In 162 games there are 486 outfield starts. If 4 outfielders split the load equally it's 121.5 starts each. I'd guess starting 50 games is pretty typical for a 4th outfielder.

 

As I stated, the most games Shane ever started before this year was 30. "Splitting the load" with Robinson-level talent is a sure-fire lose-lose proposition- lower net WAR production + blocking young talent from further/quicker development chances.