Article: The Trade Market For Trevor Plouffe

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The rush is that he's gone after next year.  His ideal value is right now, any decision after this offseason and you're slashing his value.

Not sure if this what you meant, but Plouffe is gone after two more years (eligible for FA following the 2017 season).

 

I'm not sure his value is that much more now that it will be next winter.  (Of course, I don't think his value is as high as some folks here do, owing largely to demand.)

Edited November 9, 2015 by spycake

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Great point.  Here you can see 2015 positional WAR by team:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=MLB&year=2015

 

Twins are 14th, but within 0.1 of 17th.

 

Teams below 17th:

 

WSN
LAA
PHI
ATL
ARI
SDP
NYM
NYY
DET
CLE
CHW
MIL
BOS

 

Just not a lot of good matches in this group.  I am sure plenty of teams would take Plouffe off our hands if we're selling, but we're not necessarily going to get great value or our preferred positional return (i.e. a catcher or prospects to flip for a catcher).

 

What jumps out here is the Mets (in the WS) and the Yankees (who always compete).   No one mentioned the Mets in the article, but there's a need, a drive, the fact that they are close, and I'm pretty sure they have pieces we could use.  Thoughts there?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Seriously... Shields isn't an upgrade anymore... Look at his stats... and remember this was in a pitcher's park.  Stay away.  Kimbrel and Norris, absolutely, but Shields is Nolasco 2.0.

[GP830]

While Twins fans are over valuing Plouffe, don't all teams over-value their own guys to an extent? And to that point, can't we assume that a deal could be done that both sides would be equally unhappy with?

[Otto von Ballpark]

What jumps out here is the Mets (in the WS) and the Yankees (who always compete). No one mentioned the Mets in the article, but there's a need, a drive, the fact that they are close, and I'm pretty sure they have pieces we could use. Thoughts there?

Yankees are committed to Headley, and the Mets are VERY committed to Wright.

[TheLeviathan]

Not sure if this what you meant, but Plouffe is gone after two more years (eligible for FA following the 2017 season).

 

I'm not sure his value is that much more now that it will be next winter.  (Of course, I don't think his value is as high as some folks here do, owing largely to demand.)

That is what I meant. Trading for two years of a player is always going to be more appealing than one.

[mdonaghue]

Say what you want about Plouffe, he's more valuable to the organization at this point in his career than Mauer is.  Bench or trade Mauer (even if you have to eat virtually all of his salary - throw Nolasco in, too, and get some bullpen depth).  Call up Vargas and start Sano at third.  Use Plouffe as your corner utility infielder.  If you keep Mauer, he can DH, play a little first base and even pick up some time in the outfield if absolutely necessary.  Getting rid of Plouffe is not a good option.

[kab21]

 

That is what I meant. Trading for two years of a player is always going to be more appealing than one.

And then you extend him a QO and get a draft pick.  the twins don't have to be run like a tiny market baseball team that has to trade players before they become FA's. 

 

Plouffe should be traded for one and only one reason: the haul of prospects (or for Norris) is fairly good (like one top 50ish prospect at a minimum).  He shouldn't be traded for the sake of trading him.

[TheLeviathan]

 

And then you extend him a QO and get a draft pick.  the twins don't have to be run like a tiny market baseball team that has to trade players before they become FA's. 

 

Plouffe should be traded for one and only one reason: the haul of prospects (or for Norris) is fairly good (like one top 50ish prospect at a minimum).  He shouldn't be traded for the sake of trading him.

 

You're seriously going to extend a 31 year old Trevor Plouffe a 16m QO?

 

Holy schnikes I have no response for that.

 

You don't trade him because he's about to be a FA, you trade him because he'll be a 31 year old FA that has an immensely talented player behind him that plays the same position that is dirt cheap and has 5 years of control.

 

Seriously though, a qualifying offer?

[jsteve96]

 

What jumps out here is the Mets (in the WS) and the Yankees (who always compete).   No one mentioned the Mets in the article, but there's a need, a drive, the fact that they are close, and I'm pretty sure they have pieces we could use.  Thoughts there?

fella named david Wright maybe for the Mets

[Thrylos]

Unless I am missing something, something is missing here

 

a. Plouffe is from LA (Encino, which is Northern Valley, but still)

b. Taylor Featherston is on the top of the Angels' 3B depth chart right now.

 

1+1 = ? 

 

can they get someone like Trevor Gott & Chris O'Grady?  Hope so.  I'd do that trade...

[kab21]

 

You're seriously going to extend a 31 year old Trevor Plouffe a 16m QO?

 

Holy schnikes I have no response for that.

 

You don't trade him because he's about to be a FA, you trade him because he'll be a 31 year old FA that has an immensely talented player behind him that plays the same position that is dirt cheap and has 5 years of control.

 

Seriously though, a qualifying offer?

he would likely decline it and I would be fine with Plouffe on a one year contract.  Plouffe would be stupid to decline it and not go after a multi-year deal.

[DocBauer]

I am a fan of Plouffe. Which I guess puts me in the "overvalued" camp, which I don't feel is either accurate or fair. If you like Plouffe and respect him and his contributions, I guess you overvalue him. If you feel solid fielding 3B who hit .250-ish with 30 Dbl and 20 HR power kind of grow on trees these days, then I guess you undervalue him.

 

It's not being snarky, it's simply the reasonable split being discussed here in regard to Plouffe, his value, the number of quality 3B in the league, and teams in need.

 

While Norris has yet to hit as he did in the minors, the potential is there. I wish he were LH, but oh well...can't have everything. I like the idea of trading with San Diego, though I could get behind a real quality RP arm or two.

 

San Diego options include Plouffe, possibly another solid prospect, for a talented young catcher in Norris.

 

The other option, crazy but impossible to dismiss, is a 4 or 5 for 3 with both clubs burning the midnight oil. Plouffe, Polano perhaps, Arcia maybe, Nolasco back to the NL, and a young pitcher not named Berrios. Stewart, Gonsalves or Burdi maybe? Twins get their young catcher, a top relief arm in Kimbrel, but also take on Shields.

 

This deal doesn't really work for the Twins unless a 3rd team is involved for Shields, Santana or Hughes. (Hughes if the one I'd like to really keep) It may be too complicated...but it would be interesting.

[DocBauer]

Unless I am missing something, something is missing here

 

a. Plouffe is from LA (Encino, which is Northern Valley, but still)

b. Taylor Featherston is on the top of the Angels' 3B depth chart right now.

 

1+1 = ? 

 

can they get someone like Trevor Gott & Chris O'Grady?  Hope so.  I'd do that trade...

Hey, I think you may have something here. A win-win for both clubs. Mutual need. There is a history of moves between the two clubs, though it has been a while. And while both are in the AL, they are not in the same division.

[mnfireman]

Plouffe is an interesting player, or maybe 3B was an interesting position this year. 2015 MLB 3B ranks (20 qualified for the batting title):

• AVG - 20/20 
• OBP - 16/20
• SLG - 11/20
• OPS - 14/20
• WAR - 13/20
• HR - 9(T)
• RBI - 5
• 2B - 6(T)
• PA - 10/20
• GIDP - 1 (Led MLB)
• SO - 9/20
• BB - 8/20 (Tied with Valbuena who did not qualify but was close)
• RF - 5/20 
• dWAR - 8/20

The numbers show that he was very solid, even above average, last season. I think there is a market for him should they try to trade him. I just hope they don't give him away for nothing if they do trade him

 

[Darius]

Are there actually people out there who thought it would be a good idea to trade Plouffe for Lind, before the Park news?  I would be physically sickened by that move.  That is absolutely terrible.

 

A solid fielding 3B, with RH power in Target Field (built for RH power), for a guy with marginally better numbers from the left side, in Target field (where LH power goes to die), who won't play defense (hopefully, he's never posted a positive dWAR), and seems to get injured frequently?  I can't get over how awful that would be.  Plouffe is so much more valuable than Lind.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The other option, crazy but impossible to dismiss, is a 4 or 5 for 3 with both clubs burning the midnight oil. Plouffe, Polano perhaps, Arcia maybe, Nolasco back to the NL, and a young pitcher not named Berrios. Stewart, Gonsalves or Burdi maybe? Twins get their young catcher, a top relief arm in Kimbrel, but also take on Shields.

This is quite possible to dismiss, I just did. . Seriously, that trade idea is so nuts for SD, it boggles the mind how often it gets repeated around here.

[Major League Ready]

 

I am a fan of Plouffe. Which I guess puts me in the "overvalued" camp, which I don't feel is either accurate or fair. If you like Plouffe and respect him and his contributions, I guess you overvalue him. If you feel solid fielding 3B who hit .250-ish with 30 Dbl and 20 HR power kind of grow on trees these days, then I guess you undervalue him.

It's not being snarky, it's simply the reasonable split being discussed here in regard to Plouffe, his value, the number of quality 3B in the league, and teams in need.

While Norris has yet to hit as he did in the minors, the potential is there. I wish he were LH, but oh well...can't have everything. I like the idea of trading with San Diego, though I could get behind a real quality RP arm or two.

San Diego options include Plouffe, possibly another solid prospect, for a talented young catcher in Norris.

The other option, crazy but impossible to dismiss, is a 4 or 5 for 3 with both clubs burning the midnight oil. Plouffe, Polano perhaps, Arcia maybe, Nolasco back to the NL, and a young pitcher not named Berrios. Stewart, Gonsalves or Burdi maybe? Twins get their young catcher, a top relief arm in Kimbrel, but also take on Shields.

This deal doesn't really work for the Twins unless a 3rd team is involved for Shields, Santana or Hughes. (Hughes if the one I'd like to really keep) It may be too complicated...but it would be interesting.

I would be very happy getting Norris for Plouffe but I would not touch Shields.  The last thing we need is an even more expensive SP in decline phase.

[DocBauer]

I would be very happy getting Norris for Plouffe but I would not touch Shields.  The last thing we need is an even more expensive SP in decline phase.

 

Agreed!

 

I don't want Shields. And I think a deal for him is way too complicated to pull off anyway. But still, there were rumors last year, which is why I addressed it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yankees are committed to Headley, and the Mets are VERY committed to Wright.

 

wow...that's one sucky contract (just looked it up).  I suppose you have a point here other than the fact that Wright was on the wrong half of 3B this offseason.  Given they were in the WS, the strikes me as a bad contract they offload (and pay a good chunk of) to a bad team so they can pick up a better 3B.  I wouldn't rule them out, as the Mets without question have the resources to get it done if they want to upgrade there, but I do agree that's quite a bit more difficult. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

wow...that's one sucky contract (just looked it up). I suppose you have a point here other than the fact that Wright was on the wrong half of 3B this offseason. Given they were in the WS, the strikes me as a bad contract they offload (and pay a good chunk of) to a bad team so they can pick up a better 3B. I wouldn't rule them out, as the Mets without question have the resources to get it done if they want to upgrade there, but I do agree that's quite a bit more difficult.

Wright is basically their Mayer, he's not getting dealt. And he actually is still pretty good, 2.7 bWAR in a down offensive year in 2014, and 128 OPS+ coming back from injury in 2015. In fact, his injury/medical situation is so unusual, there is a good chance he eventually retires early and/or insurance picks up a large tab.

 

But they are hoping that won't be necessary for a few years, and there is zero percent chance they deal him and replace him with Plouffe this offseason.

[TheLeviathan]

 

he would likely decline it and I would be fine with Plouffe on a one year contract.  Plouffe would be stupid to decline it and not go after a multi-year deal.

 

You're fine with paying Trevor Plouffe 16M?  I don't have words.

 

If I'm Trevor Plouffe I see roughly double whatever I'm likely to make on the market and I take that in a heartbeat.  Any agent that recommended Trevor Plouffe decline a QO should be fired on the spot.

[kab21]

 

You're fine with paying Trevor Plouffe 16M?  I don't have words.

 

If I'm Trevor Plouffe I see roughly double whatever I'm likely to make on the market and I take that in a heartbeat.  Any agent that recommended Trevor Plouffe decline a QO should be fired on the spot.

He has averaged 3 WAR the last two seasons and each WAR is worth 5-6M minimum.

 

But basically you are saying that you trade him for anything because he has to be moved?  That is what it sounds like.  I disagree. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

With all the talk about positional log jams and young, talented players being blocked, i cannot believe how the Plouffe supporters are coming out of the woodwork right now.

 

Plouffe is, like, okay. I think if you can find somebody who wants him and is willing to take Nolasco as a part of whatever the deal is, you go for it. We just need to open up some space. He really isn't going to be missed that sorely.

[Shane Wahl]

 

What jumps out here is the Mets (in the WS) and the Yankees (who always compete).   No one mentioned the Mets in the article, but there's a need, a drive, the fact that they are close, and I'm pretty sure they have pieces we could use.  Thoughts there?

 

Depends on what they do with Murphy, Duda (could trade), and if they sign a new SS. Wright is always going to be an injury question mark going forward too. It's conceivable that they think of Plouffe as a younger version of Cuddyer, but in the infield.

[kab21]

I think it funny how everyone talks down Plouffe and then they try to trade him (part of a package) for Lucroy or include 12M in dead money with him in a trade.  He isn't that good.

[Shane Wahl]

 

Unless I am missing something, something is missing here

 

a. Plouffe is from LA (Encino, which is Northern Valley, but still)

b. Taylor Featherston is on the top of the Angels' 3B depth chart right now.

 

1+1 = ? 

 

can they get someone like Trevor Gott & Chris O'Grady?  Hope so.  I'd do that trade...

 

Yes, the Angels.

[Vanimal46]

 

With all the talk about positional log jams and young, talented players being blocked, i cannot believe how the Plouffe supporters are coming out of the woodwork right now.

 

Plouffe is, like, okay. I think if you can find somebody who wants him and is willing to take Nolasco as a part of whatever the deal is, you go for it. We just need to open up some space. He really isn't going to be missed that sorely.

 

I'm with you 100% Dinger. Plouffe's numbers have been broken down on other threads, and he is the definition of middle of the road 3B. The writing has been on the wall since July when Sano came up and dominated that Plouffe is expendable. Now we're seeing some resistance with trading him.. I don't get it. 

[Shane Wahl]

A grip, for everyone, is needed.

 

1. I like Plouffe. If there were no Miguel Sano, I would keep Plouffe for another year at least.

2. Miguel Sano is here and he has immediately shown that he is ready to dominate.

3. Moving Sano from a position that he has worked on *for years* in the minors to one in which he has never played is a *ridiculous* way to handle him when there is no real need to do so.

4. Plouffe, still with no. 1 above, is an above average player, but he also might be in the decline phase. He was good in 2014, above average in 2015, and probably will be above average in 2016 and even 2017.

5. From 4, certain teams are going to want him. The Angels are clearly one team. If the Brewers want to be remotely competitive any time soon, they are another. The list almost hits double digits just with regard to third basemen.

6. From 4 and 5, there is likely quite a bit value to be had for Plouffe and second-tier prospects (which, in the Twins system, borders on the first-tier for many, many teams). A catcher would be the highest priority. Or *two* legit bullpen arms. I would only try trading for youth, however.

7. No one is taking Nolasco right now.

Edited November 10, 2015 by Shane Wahl

[Otto von Ballpark]

You're fine with paying Trevor Plouffe 16M? I don't have words.

 

If I'm Trevor Plouffe I see roughly double whatever I'm likely to make on the market and I take that in a heartbeat. Any agent that recommended Trevor Plouffe decline a QO should be fired on the spot.

If Plouffe is likely to make roughly half of $16 mil AAV on the open market in 2 years with no comp pick attached, then why do you think his trade value would be very high now, or appreciably lower next winter? Sounds like he just isn't worth that much, period, which means you're probably not getting many great trade offers and your best course of action might simply be to hold on to him for the time being.. Not a lot of guys with that FA profile get dealt early, or if they do, the return is modest. What did Freese fetch a couple years ago? Bourjous?